The real question is how does Hutch compare to Ayres.
- Monkeypunk

Ayres is undefeated this year..

Why do people keep pointing out the greyhound connection with Thornton. I understand talking about the greyhounds and Dubas’ connection with players. But Dubas was 10 when Joe played there. So I don’t really see the connection.

Saravelli at 40.


- aminnes

4-2 leafs
let's do this

Nylander eats Florida Cougars for breakfast and right now he's very hungry.

Panthers, Panthers

Sort of. Here's the thing that's very simple and we all know it: Hutchinson is not a good goalie. His rebound control is terrible - possibly the worst in the league without hyperbole and his glove his well below average.

That said, when Hutchinson started, he faced more HD chances than anyone, and the quality of those chances was preposterous. In some cases it was self-imposed because he was booting out uncontrolled rebounds to the opposition. For the most part, though, it was because the team played like absolute crap in front of him.

So by that token his expected save percentage would have already been low. This is a measure of how much lower than your expected save percentage are you.

It's not saying Hutch is better than Andersen. It's saying that the shots Hutch was facing were probably harder, so he's partially excused in his expected save percentage - which is sort of true.
- Monkeypunk

i'm not buying what he's selling.

andersen makes saves look easy that are 'he had no chance' saves for hutch cause he's nowhere near it.

i'm callling bullpoop on any model that has hutch as an ahl goalie in the same stratosphere as andersen who is a legit starting goalie in the nhl.

holy poop Frank Seravalli is only 31 years old
- BINGO!

spent too much time in Edmonton. Ie. a weekend

i'm not buying what he's selling.

andersen makes saves look easy that are 'he had no chance' saves for hutch cause he's nowhere near it.

i'm callling bullpoop on any model that has hutch as an ahl goalie in the same stratosphere as andersen who is a legit starting goalie in the nhl.
- Tumbleweed

Ok.

I think Andersen is a legitimate starting goalie in the NHL as well. I also think this year Andersen has paled in comparison to his previous seasons and he has said as much himself. He does blame the defense in front of him without blaming the defense ("I can only control what I can control"), and this is entirely true.

But that model is specifically measuring how a league average goalie would fare against the chances you face. Andersen, with the exception of November, has been very poor this season on HD chances which is where the majority of shots go in. Being well below league average in HD Shots will bring down your entire average rating. BTW, last time I looked, he was doing really well in his HDSv% in February (it was before the stupid Carolina game though, so . . .), so there's room for optimism going into March.

That is factored by the product of the defense - regardless of the professed neutrality of this model, so you're right in my opinion. But the model also reflects something that we all know, which is that Andersen has not been as good as Andersen has been in previous seasons regardless of the defense in front of him.

Well should be telling tonight. Literally a must win. If ever there was a game we should see urgency and determination, some consistency of play, tonight is it. Fail here I really dont think we make it

Well should be telling tonight. Literally a must win. If ever there was a game we should see urgency and determination, some consistency of play, tonight is it. Fail here I really dont think we make it
- Roadrunner75

I'm not trying to be argumentative or even just pedantic . . . I would say that it's a must compete. They have to show that they're in it. If they lose but they come out of the game where they deserved to win and they showed that they are in it, I'll have some confidence . . .but if they are flat in a game this important . . .ugh.

A few days ago I looked at the remaining schedule, and I thought there was a chance that Toronto would go 12-7 and Florida would go 13-7. We have the tie-breaker due to having more ROWs, so we'd be in. I thought the Leafs would lose against Tampa and also tonight against Florida in that guesstimate. If they can win tonight, there's some serious slack, so let's hope.

I'm not trying to be argumentative or even just pedantic . . . I would say that it's a must compete. They have to show that they're in it. If they lose but they come out of the game where they deserved to win and they showed that they are in it, I'll have some confidence . . .but if they are flat in a game this important . . .ugh.

A few days ago I looked at the remaining schedule, and I thought there was a chance that Toronto would go 12-7 and Florida would go 13-7. We have the tie-breaker due to having more ROWs, so we'd be in. I thought the Leafs would lose against Tampa and also tonight against Florida in that guesstimate. If they can win tonight, there's some serious slack, so let's hope.
- Monkeypunk

The first tiebreaker is RW (regulation wins). As of now, Florida has more.

The first tiebreaker is RW (regulation wins). As of now, Florida has more.
- Steven_Seagull

Ah. They added that in for this year. Well, that currently sucks. We both have 33 at the moment, but yeah, they could end up with more.

From last blog-

Hahah I didn't notice it, but it wasn't "new"... not sure why.

I was having a conversation with Dozzer and finally noticed it.

You got banned for that??

- Aetherial

Yeah, I really got banned for that gif.

Like, 3 or 4 days or something.

Ah. They added that in for this year. Well, that currently sucks. We both have 33 at the moment, but yeah, they could end up with more.
- Monkeypunk

No, that’s total wins. Florida has 28 regulation wins and the Laffs have 25.


Rebuild again.

The first tiebreaker is RW (regulation wins). As of now, Florida has more.
- Steven_Seagull

Leafs have 32 row panthers have 30... never mind just saw that it’s only regulation.

Why would tsn have that regulation/overtime wins if it isn’t relevant.

Ok.

I think Andersen is a legitimate starting goalie in the NHL as well. I also think this year Andersen has paled in comparison to his previous seasons and he has said as much himself. He does blame the defense in front of him without blaming the defense ("I can only control what I can control"), and this is entirely true.

But that model is specifically measuring how a league average goalie would fare against the chances you face. Andersen, with the exception of November, has been very poor this season on HD chances which is where the majority of shots go in. Being well below league average in HD Shots will bring down your entire average rating. BTW, last time I looked, he was doing really well in his HDSv% in February (it was before the stupid Carolina game though, so . . .), so there's room for optimism going into March.

That is factored by the product of the defense - regardless of the professed neutrality of this model, so you're right in my opinion. But the model also reflects something that we all know, which is that Andersen has not been as good as Andersen has been in previous seasons regardless of the defense in front of him.
- Monkeypunk

maybe he's trying to measure goalies on the same basis, but i think at best his model needs tweaking. when you have obviously wrong results with hutch and andersen being close, it's at least time to look at refining it.

but more likely imo, the data he is using cannot be used to accomplish what he wants. a shot from the slot is not high danger if you no pass option and rush a shot cause a dman is about to poke the puck off your stick. a player with a pass option having the time and space to walk in and rip one from medium distance is very high danger. and a one timer from the top of the circle by ovechkin is extreme high danger.

maybe this stuff washes out at a macro level. but way to many bad data points are used when it's broken down to an individual goalie level.

league average scoring is up. so the decline in andersen's numbers isn't has steep as it appears. the only number that matters to me is point % for a goalie:

2016-17 60.6%
2017-18 61.4%
2018-19 65.8%
2019-20 60.4%

he's only 1 win off his career leafs average.

our backups should have been good for 3 more wins.

4 more wins and we would be sitting at 5th in the league and laughing. instead of being in catfight for the last spot.

Leafs have 32 row panthers have 30
- bryant

That isn’t the first tiebreaker anymore. It’s RW (regulation wins) then ROW (regulation + overtime wins).

That isn’t the first tiebreaker anymore. It’s RW (regulation wins) then ROW (regulation + overtime wins).
- Steven_Seagull

Ya I edited my post. My bad

Can you imagine if big Joe signed here, Spezza moved to the wing and the leafs ended up with a checking line of Spezza Thornton and Clifford? Damn that would be a good fourth line regardless of age.
- Dozzer

Slowest line in the NHL.

If they bring in Thornton (don't know why he'd waste his last chance), Spezza has to go. Can't have them both filling roster spots at that age, lack of production and slowness.

maybe he's trying to measure goalies on the same basis, but i think at best his model needs tweaking. when you have obviously wrong results with hutch and andersen being close, it's at least time to look at refining it.

but more likely imo, the data he is using cannot be used to accomplish what he wants. a shot from the slot is not high danger if you no pass option and rush a shot cause a dman is about to poke the puck off your stick. a player with a pass option having the time and space to walk in and rip one from medium distance is very high danger. and a one timer from the top of the circle by ovechkin is extreme high danger.

maybe this stuff washes out at a macro level. but way to many bad data points are used when it's broken down to an individual goalie level.

league average scoring is up. so the decline in andersen's numbers isn't has steep as it appears. the only number that matters to me is point % for a goalie:

2016-17 60.6%
2017-18 61.4%
2018-19 65.8%
2019-20 60.4%

he's only 1 win off his career leafs average.

our backups should have been good for 3 more wins.

4 more wins and we would be sitting at 5th in the league and laughing. instead of being in catfight for the last spot.
- Tumbleweed

There's no denying the backup is the soft spot in this equation.

I'm also puzzled about the goaltending model. Not so much by what it is, inasmuch as years ago there was a blogger . . the something goalie . . . Unmasked Goalie? . . . who was putting together a bunch of advanced analytics for how to better measure a goalie - it wasn't just HD, MD, LD, it was far more advanced and far more in depth as to what prompted the chance, and where the shot went, and blah, blah. . . it was a terrific read. Now it was probably 5 years ago now, but it went into depth at the time to show how, if I recall it correctly, Price and Rinne were superior goalies to many others, but how the defense in Rinne's case helped to limit the time and space to get off better quality chances whereas Price wasn't afforded that luxury.

It's been a long time since I read those pieces, but because it had been so in depth, it gave you many ways to spin the data to look at goalies. Of course he outlined like 8 or 9 top goalies, but never gave you all of the data to work with, so I don't know if there were limitations to the access to the data or limitations to what he could release or if it was incredibly cumbersome to get the data.

But immediately armed with that little bit of knowledge - how well does the defense inhibit a player from getting off a good shot with time and space - changes the entire context of an HD chance in Toronto from an HD chance against many other teams.

Ok.

I think Andersen is a legitimate starting goalie in the NHL as well. I also think this year Andersen has paled in comparison to his previous seasons and he has said as much himself. He does blame the defense in front of him without blaming the defense ("I can only control what I can control"), and this is entirely true.
- Monkeypunk

He's a proven top 10 goalie the past 5 years. 7th best SV%, 1st in shots against, 4th in games played.

Compared to other seasons; more rookies, more AHLers, more poopty defenders, more injuries, a new coach that doesn't care about defense.

He has said it himself because he's being professional and isn't going to throw his team's poopty defense under the bus.

But that model is specifically measuring how a league average goalie would fare against the chances you face. Andersen, with the exception of November, has been very poor this season on HD chances which is where the majority of shots go in. Being well below league average in HD Shots will bring down your entire average rating. BTW, last time I looked, he was doing really well in his HDSv% in February (it was before the stupid Carolina game though, so . . .), so there's room for optimism going into March.

Leafs give up a lot of high danger chances but what gets lost in those spread sheets is how wide open those chances really are. The criteria for high danger scoring chance is set by whom? Who counts them? What I'm saying here is there's room for grey area. Not all scoring chances are alike. The drop is HDSV% could just as easily be because the Leafs are giving up really ridiculously easy goals for the opposition in high danger areas. Which would makes sense if one goes back and watches the chances and goals being given up, you'll quickly see very few are his fault and the vast majority are on the defense / forwards.

That is factored by the product of the defense - regardless of the professed neutrality of this model, so you're right in my opinion. But the model also reflects something that we all know, which is that Andersen has not been as good as Andersen has been in previous seasons regardless of the defense in front of him.

There have been many other factors that are contributing to the dip in numbers and the majority of them have nothing to do with Andersen.

He's a proven top 10 goalie the past 5 years. 7th best SV%, 1st in shots against, 4th in games played.

Compared to other seasons; more rookies, more AHLers, more poopty defenders, more injuries, a new coach that doesn't care about defense.

He has said it himself because he's being professional and isn't going to throw his team's poopty defen



Leafs give up a lot of high danger chances but what gets lost in those spread sheets is how wide open those chances really are. The criteria for high danger scoring chance is set by whom? Who counts them? If you take a shot from a high danger area but there's a D in front of you who blocks the shot, is that still a high danger chance? What I'm saying here is there's room for grey area. If one goes back and watches the chances and goals being given up, you'll quickly see very few are his fault and the vast majority are on the defense / forwards.



There have been many other factors that are contributing to the dip in numbers and the majority of them have nothing to do with Andersen.
- JohnFergusonJr

To sum it up

“The numbers and facts are wrong therefore my opinion is all that matters”

Can you prove your opinion?

“No”

So pathetic man.

holy poop Frank Seravalli is only 31 years old
- BINGO!

I instantly feel better about myself knowing that he's the same age as me.

Why do people keep pointing out the greyhound connection with Thornton. I understand talking about the greyhounds and Dubas’ connection with players. But Dubas was 10 when Joe played there. So I don’t really see the connection.
- Trevrrrgavo

He probably was the stick boy for Grampy back then.

I instantly feel better about myself knowing that he's the same age as me.
- GreatGigInTheSky

Man, you’re old.