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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Anticipating the future – Alex Kerfoot
Author Message
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Apr 20 @ 12:59 PM ET
I’m happy right now that we aren’t doing what they are doing.

But they could come out of this a lot better than we will with the measures they are taking.

- Santo_44

The thing is they are taking measures - just different ones.

It's interesting to watch, as it may be something we can model as we slowly "get back to normal."

So I'm happy someone is doing it - and I'm even happier it isn't us.
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Apr 20 @ 1:01 PM ET
Swedish model remains interesting to watch:

https://www.bloomberg.com...tegy-is-proving-effective

- Atomic Wedgie


weird its proving effective. they have a lot more deaths compared to finland, norway and denmark

even accounting for population. they are 5-10x worse.

I am skeptical of all these numbers so far. i think its not something we will know until long after who dealt with it best
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not here to sell jerseys , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Apr 20 @ 1:01 PM ET
With the expected flat cap it isn’t too difficult to figure out the expected number.

STL seemed to have no problem signing Scandella. It’s not a complete mystery.

- Santo_44



All we know for sure is cap falls a lot if formula is applied and Daly has said formula won’t be applied but that something would be worked out. PA is desperate to finish season but that won’t happen.

It’s hard to see how they play a full season with fans next year. I can’t see how that, plus what they lost this year doesn’t result in a lower cap. I just don’t understand how some teams survive without a lower cap.

The only other options are increased revenue sharing or a wider gap between floor and ceiling. MLSE should be using its corporate muscle as a team and a broadcaster right now. Probably more important than any signings Dubas can make.
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Apr 20 @ 1:02 PM ET
weird its proving effective. they have a lot more deaths compared to finland, norway and denmark

even accounting for population. they are 5-10x worse.

I am skeptical of all these numbers so far. i think its not something we will know until long after who dealt with it best

- senstroll


Finland has done a pretty good job of limiting the infection because they've basically declared Uusimaa (where the majority of cases are) a quarantine zone. In Tampere, the second biggest city with population about 200k, there's 90 total cases.

Still early to tell what it means long term tho.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Apr 20 @ 1:05 PM ET
All we know for sure is cap falls a lot if formula is applied and Daly has said formula won’t be applied but that something would be worked out. PA is desperate to finish season but that won’t happen.

It’s hard to see how they play a full season with fans next year. I can’t see how that, plus what they lost this year doesn’t result in a lower cap. I just don’t understand how some teams survive without a lower cap.

The only other options are increased revenue sharing or a wider gap between floor and ceiling. MLSE should be using its corporate muscle as a team and a broadcaster right now. Probably more important than any signings Dubas can make.

- Canada Cup


Classic
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not here to sell jerseys , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Apr 20 @ 1:06 PM ET
Swedish model remains interesting to watch:

https://www.bloomberg.com...tegy-is-proving-effective

- Atomic Wedgie


They have three times the death rate we do. What am I missing?
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not here to sell jerseys , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Apr 20 @ 1:07 PM ET
Classic
- Santo_44


Good response. Please explain. Do you think they’ll finish? How?
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Apr 20 @ 1:08 PM ET
All we know for sure is cap falls a lot if formula is applied and Daly has said formula won’t be applied but that something would be worked out. PA is desperate to finish season but that won’t happen.

It’s hard to see how they play a full season with fans next year. I can’t see how that, plus what they lost this year doesn’t result in a lower cap. I just don’t understand how some teams survive without a lower cap.

The only other options are increased revenue sharing or a wider gap between floor and ceiling. MLSE should be using its corporate muscle as a team and a broadcaster right now. Probably more important than any signings Dubas can make.

- Canada Cup

I suspect there will be a very easy agreement between NHL and NHLPA to freeze salary cap at last year's levels, and to make escrow a huge amount.

From NHLPA perspective, it makes sense: I'd rather keep my existing contract, and then just get paid for what percentage of it actually gets played/how much revenue is accrued.

It would also be interesting to see if it's worth it for the NHL to play regular season games in empty arenas - my wild, unedumacated guess is "no."

I saw a stat a few days ago about the NHL's tv and gate revenue percentages vs. the NFL. IIRC, it TV was 70% of NHL revenues, and about 15% of NHL (feel free to correct me if I am wrong).
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Apr 20 @ 1:08 PM ET
They have three times the death rate we do. What am I missing?
- Canada Cup

They are handling it differently.

If they can contain the virus while not suffering as much in other important areas I call that a success.

It remains to be seen if that’s the case though.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Apr 20 @ 1:09 PM ET
Good response. Please explain. Do you think they’ll finish? How?
- Canada Cup


The same exact way they will try and play next season.

How? We’ll see what they do.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not here to sell jerseys , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Apr 20 @ 1:11 PM ET
The same exact way they will try and play next season.

How? We’ll see what they do.

- Santo_44



Ah. Now I understand.
senstroll
Location: Leafs AAV Champs, ON
Joined: 02.22.2008

Apr 20 @ 1:12 PM ET
Finland has done a pretty good job of limiting the infection because they've basically declared Uusimaa (where the majority of cases are) a quarantine zone. In Tampere, the second biggest city with population about 200k, there's 90 total cases.

Still early to tell what it means long term tho.

- TheMussel



I am curious about testing then.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Apr 20 @ 1:15 PM ET
Ah. Now I understand.
- Canada Cup

I don’t try to pretend I have answers on what will happen like you do.

I know they will have the same issues playing next season as they will trying to complete the season this summer. Of course unless a vaccine comes out way earlier than expected and you and I both know that’s extremely unlikely.

I know it’s pretty important they do all they can to play games.

To say “they will not finish the season” is pretty ignorant right now.
TheMussel
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Toronto, ON
Joined: 09.24.2013

Apr 20 @ 1:15 PM ET
I am curious about testing then.
- senstroll


They rolled out random testing of the whole population, more concentrated in Uusimaa for now but supposedly to be done all over the country.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not here to sell jerseys , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Apr 20 @ 1:15 PM ET
I suspect there will be a very easy agreement between NHL and NHLPA to freeze salary cap at last year's levels, and to make escrow a huge amount.

From NHLPA perspective, it makes sense: I'd rather keep my existing contract, and then just get paid for what percentage of it actually gets played/how much revenue is accrued.

It would also be interesting to see if it's worth it for the NHL to play regular season games in empty arenas - my wild, unedumacated guess is "no."

I saw a stat a few days ago about the NHL's tv and gate revenue percentages vs. the NFL. IIRC, it TV was 70% of NHL revenues, and about 15% of NHL (feel free to correct me if I am wrong).

- Atomic Wedgie


I don’t really know the details of escrow but is there that much in there to give up to cover that big a shortfall. We’re talking no games in a bunch of states anyway until there’s a vaccine. That could be all season.


Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Apr 20 @ 1:17 PM ET
They have three times the death rate we do. What am I missing?
- Canada Cup

https://nationalpost.com/...down-approach-to-covid-19

Not the greatest article in the world, but it's from Chris Selley, so that should be expected.
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Apr 20 @ 1:17 PM ET
Notification didn't pop up but I just went to PM's and it was there. I just responded.
- GreatGigInTheSky


k sent you a response
Aetherial
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Has anyone discussed the standings today?
Joined: 06.30.2006

Apr 20 @ 1:18 PM ET
Maybe, at times this season, Engvall has played some C, I do like his size.. If he can learn how to play center that would be great.
- PatC80


Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not here to sell jerseys , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Apr 20 @ 1:21 PM ET
I don’t try to pretend I have answers on what will happen like you do.

I know they will have the same issues playing next season as they will trying to complete the season this summer. Of course unless a vaccine comes out way earlier than expected and you and I both know that’s extremely unlikely.

I know it’s pretty important they do all they can to play games.

To say “they will not finish the season” is pretty ignorant right now.

- Santo_44


Yes, in the scheme of important things finishing the NHL season is right up there. I only pretend to have some of the answers. One of the answers I pretend to have is that they won’t finish this season. So I will repeat.

They won’t finish this season
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Apr 20 @ 1:23 PM ET
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/chris-selley-canadians-should-wish-sweden-well-in-its-no-lockdown-approach-to-covid-19

Not the greatest article in the world, but it's from Chris Selley, so that should be expected.

- Atomic Wedgie


If they actually had data for suicide numbers to compare after this is all said and done I think people would be shocked.

A month before this happened my neighbour fell victim to his mental health issues. Sadly no one knew about them.

Unfortunately this will cause more people to that point. I don’t like to just look at the hard coronavirus numbers.

I think it’s important to limit all fatalities that can result from this issue.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Apr 20 @ 1:23 PM ET
I don’t really know the details of escrow but is there that much in there to give up to cover that big a shortfall. We’re talking no games in a bunch of states anyway until there’s a vaccine. That could be all season.
- Canada Cup

Escrow basically has the NHL withhold roughly 15% (I think that's a guesstimate) of a player's salary until the end of the year.

Once the year is over and all revenues are tallied, the NHL and NHLPA take that number and divide by 2. Because under the CBA the NHLPA is guaranteed 50%, if the total revues are lower than projected, that amount of salary (as a %) is shaved off of each player's salary - and the rest of the escrow pile is returned to players.

So it's a pretty easy thing to do: for the 2020-21 season, make the escrow withhold 50%. Pray to the hockey gods that things return to normal and revenues are healthy.

If we end up with a 50 game season and reduced crowds, well hell, you still made millions of dollars to play a kids' game, and you didn't have to play in October and November.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Apr 20 @ 1:24 PM ET
Yes, in the scheme of important things finishing the NHL season is right up there. I only pretend to have some of the answers. One of the answers I pretend to have is that they won’t finish this season. So I will repeat.

They won’t finish this season

- Canada Cup

And your ignorance continues.

You don’t have that answer so quit pretending you do.

You are just another Max on this thread.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Apr 20 @ 1:26 PM ET
Yes, in the scheme of important things finishing the NHL season is right up there. I only pretend to have some of the answers. One of the answers I pretend to have is that they won’t finish this season. So I will repeat.

They won’t finish this season

- Canada Cup

There's a slim chance they run some sort of abbreviated playoffs. Maybe. Doubt it, but maybe.

It's laughable that some people are suggesting they still finish the rest of the regular season.

I love the bellyaching about how it isn't fair to some teams on the bubble.

Yeah, in a perfect world - but you know, things are kinda crazy right now. Be grateful for what you have, shut the frank up and move on.
Atomic Wedgie
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: The centre of the hockey universe
Joined: 07.31.2006

Apr 20 @ 1:28 PM ET
And your ignorance continues.

You don’t have that answer so quit pretending you do.

You are just another Max on this thread.

- Santo_44

Relax, buddy.

Nobody has answers, but this is a website where everyone is free to give their opinions.

You think they will play this summer. Others don't.

Your opinion isn't righterer or wrongerer than mine.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Not here to sell jerseys , ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Apr 20 @ 1:30 PM ET
Escrow basically has the NHL withhold roughly 15% (I think that's a guesstimate) of a player's salary until the end of the year.

Once the year is over and all revenues are tallied, the NHL and NHLPA take that number and divide by 2. Because under the CBA the NHLPA is guaranteed 50%, if the total revues are lower than projected, that amount of salary (as a %) is shaved off of each player's salary - and the rest of the escrow pile is returned to players.

So it's a pretty easy thing to do: for the 2020-21 season, make the escrow withhold 50%. Pray to the hockey gods that things return to normal and revenues are healthy.

If we end up with a 50 game season and reduced crowds, well hell, you still made millions of dollars to play a kids' game, and you didn't have to play in October and November.

- Atomic Wedgie


I think MLSE should push them to let the gap between floor and ceiling widen to keep a bit more $ in the system. It might weaken parity a bit (aw shucks) but it doesn’t put as much pressure on the bottom feeders and puts some more $ into hands of players lucky enough to be signed by the Leafs.
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