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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Ghofrani: Sabres Fall To 8th Pick In Draft Lottery, Should They Keep Or Trade It?
Author Message
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I AM MY OWN DAMN SOURCE!, NY
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jun 29 @ 9:23 AM ET
Why do they have to bring back your entire list?

Also, some of your numbers are off. For example, there is no chance Lazar is getting $1.75M.

- kingcong39


So he gets 1.5 or 1.25

There is only a max 500K difference.

That is just filling need, signing the RFAs and Simmonds.

Add in signing Thompson and Mitts to roughly 1.25 each the Sabres have less than 3 Mil in space.
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 29 @ 9:44 AM ET
I see almost no way that this team is any good next year without again depleting the prospect pool.

They have no players signed and will have limited cap space.

Botterill was so damn bad at his job.

Currently the Sabres have 34 Mil in cap space.

Roughly 2 Mil in overages Bonus.
Reinhart - 7
Simmonds - 2.5
Kahun - 2.75
VO - 4
Lazar - 1.75
Montour - 5
Ullmark - 3.25

There is 28 Mil

They have 6 Mil left, and a garbage roster to boot.

- ImThatGuy



I think you are a bit high on Ullmark and Lazar, and no need to bring back Simmonds for anything more than $1.5m...I would not bring him back at all. So, with that add back about $4m to your $6m for a total of $10m
Now consider trading Montour/Miller and Risto...that adds back about $9m -$10.4m; bring that total to $19m - $20.4, now add Mojo's $4.5m and that gives $23.5m - $24.9m to spend on Trades and FA acquisitions

DeMelo =?$3.25m?
Brendon Dillon =$2.5m?
Josh Anderson = ?$3.0m?
Alex Tuch = $4.75m
Dylan Strome = ?$5.5m?
That totals ~$20m


Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart
Olofsson - Strome - Alex Tuch
Kahun - Cozens - Josh Anderson
Lazar - Larry - Okposo

Dahlin - Demelo
McCabe - Montour/Joker
Dillon - Miller/Joker

Ullmark - Hutton

Easy to gave doom and gloom outlook...and could be right. Alternatively, it doesn't have to be.
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I AM MY OWN DAMN SOURCE!, NY
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jun 29 @ 9:50 AM ET
I think you are a bit high on Ullmark and Lazar, and no need to bring back Simmonds for anything more than $1.5m...I would not bring him back at all. So, with that add back about $4m to your $6m for a total of $10m
Now consider trading Montour/Miller and Risto...that adds back about $9m -$10.4m; bring that total to $19m - $20.4, now add Mojo's $4.5m and that gives $23.5m - $24.9m to spend on Trades and FA acquisitions

DeMelo =?$3.25m?
Brendon Dillon =$2.5m?
Josh Anderson = ?$3.0m?
Alex Tuch = $4.75m
Dylan Strome = ?$5.5m?
That totals ~$20m


Skinner - Eichel - Reinhart
Olofsson - Strome - Alex Tuch
Kahun - Cozens - Josh Anderson
Lazar - Larry - Okposo

Dahlin - Demelo
McCabe - Montour/Joker
Dillon - Miller/Joker

Ullmark - Hutton

Easy to gave doom and gloom outlook...and could be right. Alternatively, it doesn't have to be.

- IonSabres



Ullmark at 3.25 would be the 32nd highest paid goalie in the NHL. He is 100% getting that or close to it.

My issue with trading players from the current roster is, there are no positions of strength on this roster, nor are there players ready to amke the jump to fill in, especially on defense. You are cutting out one piece of the boat to fix another.

Also you have a GM with no experience and how are you acquiring all of those players without gutting the prospect pool and/or current roster.

Acquiring two top6 F/top4 D in one offseason is a hell of a lot to ask let alone 5 to 6.
gerbe75pts
Anaheim Ducks
Location: DRAFT COLE CAUFIELD AT 7!!!, CA
Joined: 09.03.2009

Jun 29 @ 10:10 AM ET
Ill keep on my

RyJo for Risto Trade.

Prospect, 8th OA, Hutton
For
Anderson
Savard
Korpisalo

- ImThatGuy



Gross the last offer
IonSabres
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I said that months ago, keep up!, FL
Joined: 03.10.2013

Jun 29 @ 10:11 AM ET
Ullmark at 3.25 would be the 32nd highest paid goalie in the NHL. He is 100% getting that or close to it.

My issue with trading players from the current roster is, there are no positions of strength on this roster, nor are there players ready to amke the jump to fill in, especially on defense. You are cutting out one piece of the boat to fix another.

Also you have a GM with no experience and how are you acquiring all of those players without gutting the prospect pool and/or current roster.

Acquiring 6 top 6 F top 4 D in one offseason is a hell of a lot to ask.

- ImThatGuy


Yes, the biggest risk is certainly the GM's lack of experience.
That also could generate lots of conversations and therefore opportunity. Hopefully he is savvy enough to represent well.

The key to attracting the FA' s of Demelo and Dillon is to paint a bright future...so those trades for Strome, Tuch, and Anderson need to be completed before FA starts...around the Draft which is common.

Stome - rumor is there were discussions around the TDL. Does Risto + pull this off? Risto and Mitts
Tuch - rumor is there were discussions with VKG pretty recently. Does Montour and Tage get it done?
Anderson - rumor was at the TDL the teams were in discussions on him. Does Miller straight up get it done? Anderson's value should be down based on season-ending surgery on his shoulder...that injury tanked his production. He is a buy-low candidate.

Now, admittedly that just wiped out 3 RhD...but Demelo restock that and Borgen is in the wings... a late bloomer.
gerbe75pts
Anaheim Ducks
Location: DRAFT COLE CAUFIELD AT 7!!!, CA
Joined: 09.03.2009

Jun 29 @ 10:12 AM ET
If Adam's doesn't receive 30 calls on Eichel, of various seriousness, then other GMs aren't doing their job.

Give me 2020-2-OA, 2021-1st, Turcotte, Arthur Kailyev, and Akil Thomas
Draft Byfield and Rossi/Holtz
I'll take it, and add the Kings to my list of teams to watch.

- IonSabres


Gross...
lulags
Buffalo Sabres
Location: St Louis
Joined: 02.24.2007

Jun 29 @ 10:17 AM ET
I see almost no way that this team is any good next year without again depleting the prospect pool.

They have no players signed and will have limited cap space.

Botterill was so damn bad at his job.

Currently the Sabres have 34 Mil in cap space.

Roughly 2 Mil in overages Bonus.
Reinhart - 7
Simmonds - 2.5
Kahun - 2.75
VO - 4
Lazar - 1.75
Montour - 5
Ullmark - 3.25

There is 28 Mil

They have 6 Mil left, and a garbage roster to boot.

- ImThatGuy

My primary argument for trading Reinhart
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I AM MY OWN DAMN SOURCE!, NY
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jun 29 @ 10:17 AM ET
I really hope Edmonton wins the lottery.

It would be an all time FU to the NHL and it would be hilarious to me.
lulags
Buffalo Sabres
Location: St Louis
Joined: 02.24.2007

Jun 29 @ 10:21 AM ET
I really hope Edmonton wins the lottery.

It would be an all time FU to the NHL and it would be hilarious to me.

- ImThatGuy

I hope Edmonton wins the cup
Boss34
Buffalo Sabres
Location: BUFFALO , NY
Joined: 12.03.2015

Jun 29 @ 10:27 AM ET
I really hope Edmonton wins the lottery.

It would be an all time FU to the NHL and it would be hilarious to me.

- ImThatGuy



It's not a lottery. It's an assignment.

And yes the nhl would assign McDavid to the oilers. They just built a massive new building and the economy got crushed at the time.

Welcome to Montreal laferierre.

The habs have been marginally better than the Sabres, but with zero tanking. They deserve laferierre.
gerbe75pts
Anaheim Ducks
Location: DRAFT COLE CAUFIELD AT 7!!!, CA
Joined: 09.03.2009

Jun 29 @ 10:30 AM ET
I really hope Edmonton wins the lottery.

It would be an all time FU to the NHL and it would be hilarious to me.

- ImThatGuy


Hopefully Arizona gets it
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I AM MY OWN DAMN SOURCE!, NY
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jun 29 @ 10:43 AM ET
Hopefully Arizona gets it
- gerbe75pts


Nah Edmonton, only because it will continue to make the NHL look like idiots.
Sabres1523
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 12.27.2016

Jun 29 @ 10:49 AM ET
If the play in team that won the lottery advances to the actual playoff round is the lottery redone? Does the team they beat fall into that lottery spot?
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I AM MY OWN DAMN SOURCE!, NY
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jun 29 @ 10:50 AM ET
If the play in team that won the lottery advances to the actual playoff round is the lottery redone? Does the team they beat fall into that lottery spot?
- Sabres1523


I beleive it is any team that loses in teh play in round is considered to be in the chance to get the first overall pick.

So If
Tampa
Pitt
Boston
Toronto

All lose in rd 1, they are thrown into the lottery for the first overall pick.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Jun 29 @ 11:01 AM ET
I beleive it is any team that loses in teh play in round is considered to be in the chance to get the first overall pick.

So If
Tampa
Pitt
Boston
Toronto

All lose in rd 1, they are thrown into the lottery for the first overall pick.

- ImThatGuy


Incorrect sir. Tampa and Boston are not involved in the play-in round. Only Pittsburgh and Toronto are from your list above.
Boss34
Buffalo Sabres
Location: BUFFALO , NY
Joined: 12.03.2015

Jun 29 @ 11:07 AM ET
If the play in team that won the lottery advances to the actual playoff round is the lottery redone? Does the team they beat fall into that lottery spot?
- Sabres1523



Pretty simple:

8 teams that LOSE in the play in round have a 1/8
12.5% of getting the 1st pick


Sprinkles are for winners. Cant win and get the top pick
Ratsreign
Florida Panthers
Location: Mo can stay awhile, FL
Joined: 10.27.2017

Jun 29 @ 11:08 AM ET
I beleive it is any team that loses in teh play in round is considered to be in the chance to get the first overall pick.

So If
Tampa
Pitt
Boston
Toronto

All lose in rd 1, they are thrown into the lottery for the first overall pick.

- ImThatGuy

TB & Boston aren't in the play-in round, they're locked into playoffs, no chance for lottery.
Hatboro_Swords
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Next year is gonna be 05/06 all over again, PA
Joined: 07.30.2010

Jun 29 @ 11:13 AM ET
I beleive it is any team that loses in teh play in round is considered to be in the chance to get the first overall pick.

So If
Tampa
Pitt
Boston
Toronto

All lose in rd 1, they are thrown into the lottery for the first overall pick.

- ImThatGuy

You fail. There is a playin round and a round robin that will occur at the same time. The teams that are in the round robin are already qualified for the playoffs. The purpose of the round robin is to seed the teams already in the playoffs and give them some games so they aren't rusty and have to play against teams that just played a series to qualify for the playoffs. It makes perfect sense. Unless you are a complete moron.
sbroads24
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We are in 30th place. It's 2017 , NY
Joined: 02.12.2012

Jun 29 @ 11:14 AM ET
I see almost no way that this team is any good next year without again depleting the prospect pool.

They have no players signed and will have limited cap space.

Botterill was so damn bad at his job.

Currently the Sabres have 34 Mil in cap space.

Roughly 2 Mil in overages Bonus.
Reinhart - 7
Simmonds - 2.5
Kahun - 2.75
VO - 4
Lazar - 1.75
Montour - 5
Ullmark - 3.25

There is 28 Mil

They have 6 Mil left, and a garbage roster to boot.

- ImThatGuy

I don't think any of these players get that much, plus I don't think Simmonds is here.

Factor in trading someone like Risto and they probably have around 10 to play with
Sabres1523
Buffalo Sabres
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 12.27.2016

Jun 29 @ 11:18 AM ET
Incorrect sir. Tampa and Boston are not involved in the play-in round. Only Pittsburgh and Toronto are from your list above.
- kingcong39


So would you have a lottery with the pens and the leafs if they loose for the first overall that includes all the teams who missed the play in completely, like the Sabres, Red wings ect.
Just wondering if the team that won the lottery advances, if the Sabres would still be ably to get 1oa via the lottery.
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I AM MY OWN DAMN SOURCE!, NY
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jun 29 @ 11:20 AM ET
TB & Boston aren't in the play-in round, they're locked into playoffs, no chance for lottery.
- Ratsreign


Got it thanks, Ill admit i stopped paying attention to how it all works after the SAbres were eliminated.

Still doesn't eliminate Toronto, Edmonton or Pittsburgh, Carolina getting the 1OA pick, which is asinine
ImThatGuy
Buffalo Sabres
Location: I AM MY OWN DAMN SOURCE!, NY
Joined: 11.04.2010

Jun 29 @ 11:23 AM ET
I don't think any of these players get that much, plus I don't think Simmonds is here.

Factor in trading someone like Risto and they probably have around 10 to play with

- sbroads24


Montour at 5 is the 50th highest paid D-man.
Ullmarr at that is the 32nd highest paid goalie.

I could see them both getting those contracts.

I don't want Simmonds here either, but apparently the Sabres like him, now that could have changed with Botts leaving.


Also trading Risto is a salary in salary out type deal. Unless you are trading him for picks/prospects, and if that is the case you might as well just blow it all up and trade everyone including Eichel and Dahlin.
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Jun 29 @ 11:23 AM ET
So would you have a lottery with the pens and the leafs if they loose for the first overall that includes all the teams who missed the play in completely, like the Sabres, Red wings ect.
Just wondering if the team that won the lottery advances, if the Sabres would still be ably to get 1oa via the lottery.

- Sabres1523


Only the 8 teams that lose the play-in round will be in the lottery for the 1st overall pick.

The 2nd through the 8th overall picks are already set after the first lottery.
homiedclown
Buffalo Sabres
Location: We want 1, FL
Joined: 02.24.2008

Jun 29 @ 11:24 AM ET
pretty sure the lottery pick is already assigned to a slot


the question is what team gets that slot


Team A: 6.0%

Team B: 5.0%

Team C: 3.5%

Team D: 3.0%

Team E: 2.5%

Team F: 2.0%

Team G: 1.5%

Team H: 1.0%


so if team A won the pick, whichever team loses the play in round and had the worst regular season record, got the player


if team H won the pick the team with the best regular season record that lost the play in round, got it
kingcong39
Buffalo Sabres
Location: albany, NY
Joined: 02.21.2007

Jun 29 @ 11:24 AM ET
Montour at 5 is the 50th highest paid D-man.
Ullmarr at that is the 32nd highest paid goalie.

I could see them both getting those contracts.

I don't want Simmonds here either, but apparently the Sabres like him, now that could have changed with Botts leaving.

- ImThatGuy


The multi year flat cap is going to impact a ton of players.
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