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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Stuart: Dorion's Best Trade is....
Author Message
Trilla
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 06.02.2013

Jul 7 @ 3:56 PM ET
We knew what was going to happen right from the moment when the word first came out (prior to the trade deadline) that the Sens had asked Karlsson for the list of teams where he would accept a trade. It was another 5 months before a trade to San Jose was completed.

We forget too soon. Sens fans saw with their own eyes that Karlsson could no longer easily turn to his right. He was getting beat to the outside by any and everyone who had some speed. We need to understand that Dorion masterminded a huge return in exchange for seriously damaged goods.

It was not just a good trade, it was outright robbery in broad daylight.

People totally miss on the full magnitude of this deal. Say, for example, San Jose offered tomorrow to do a straight up deal, Karlsson for Balcers. I would not take that contract back. Would you?

- spatso


Do we also forget that after that Achilles injury he rejoined the team on their playoff run? And was a ppg player.

That he lead the team in minutes every year after that, led the league in minutes twice, and was top 5 in minutes played when he wasn’t leading the league.

Karlsson was able to move to his right just fine, but he had lapses and mistakes like any other player. Lol how many other d men do you know, lead their team in points?

And in terms of the deal, I get it,you loved it, a lot of people did...I wasn’t one of them.

The deal is what it is because of this years pick..not because of norris or any player we got back.

If Yzerman or Wilson were this teams gm, they probably would’ve gotten something substantially better for Karlsson if they dealt him.




SarthGnome
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Bradford, ON
Joined: 03.29.2018

Jul 7 @ 5:31 PM ET
To the post above, I also think Quinn to the Sabres makes a lot of sense. Hes just what they need.

Which sucks cause I really want the sens to take him with the isles pick, even if they have to trade up.

- david22



I have a feeling that Islanders pick is going to be higher than expected.
Quinn has really been trending lately so it's hard to say. If you watch the post-lottery video interview between Freidman and Dorion he says there are four tiers; Tier 1 - Lafrenier, Tier 2 - Byfield, Stutzle, Tier 3 - Picks 4-12, Tier 4 - 13-23, and that all the players in these slots will be "very good NHL players".
It's an impressive draft year and reminds me of 2003 mixed with 2015. The first two rounds are going to pump out a lot of high caliber NHL talent.

I also think that the Sabres will make drafting a forward - preference on wing, a high priority, and with that thought it's one of Holtz, Quinn, or if he falls - Raymond, going to be taken. I could see Raymond falling mainly due to his perimeter playing style, meanwhile Holtz and Qunn are more dirty area/clean up guys.
In theory he was seen as a top five pick along with Holtz, Perfetti, Byfield and Lafrenier years ago.


I still think landing Stutzle will grant Ottawa a Stanley Cup at some point. That kid wants to win. I'm excited to see where the Islanders pick ends up and which player we will be landing there. Excited to see where Dorion goes with the 5th as the 3rd will be batting clean up of the 2nd tier (Byfield/Stutzle). Rossi or Perfetti would be a huge win.

Full confidence in Dorion and the scouts.
Bring back the pesky Sens.



SarthGnome
Edmonton Oilers
Location: Bradford, ON
Joined: 03.29.2018

Jul 7 @ 5:38 PM ET
Do we also forget that after that Achilles injury he rejoined the team on their playoff run? And was a ppg player.

That he lead the team in minutes every year after that, led the league in minutes twice, and was top 5 in minutes played when he wasn’t leading the league.

Karlsson was able to move to his right just fine, but he had lapses and mistakes like any other player. Lol how many other d men do you know, lead their team in points?

And in terms of the deal, I get it,you loved it, a lot of people did...I wasn’t one of them.

The deal is what it is because of this years pick..not because of norris or any player we got back.




If Yzerman or Wilson were this teams gm, they probably would’ve gotten something substantially better for Karlsson if they dealt him.

- Trilla



Dude not agreeing with Spatso is a criminal offence here.
I have explained my love and excitement with Ottawa for months and still I'm talked down to and in most cases ignored. It's kind of rude but I guess understandable considering I was a Leafs fan (RIP).
granpa
Joined: 07.03.2015

Jul 7 @ 8:07 PM ET
Karlsson was an entertainer not a winner.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 7 @ 8:09 PM ET
Dude not agreeing with Spatso is a criminal offence here.
I have explained my love and excitement with Ottawa for months and still I'm talked down to and in most cases ignored. It's kind of rude but I guess understandable considering I was a Leafs fan (RIP).

- SarthGnome


I was a Leaf fan for many years. Best decision I ever made was to let it all go and sign on with the Sens. I never minded the the Leaf team or players or even the fans. It just got to the point where I could no longer stand the Leaf media.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 7 @ 8:13 PM ET
Karlsson was an entertainer not a winner.
- granpa


I think that is a pretty accurate description. There were times when he made everybody on the ice better. But as time went by it became more about the show.
granpa
Joined: 07.03.2015

Jul 7 @ 8:25 PM ET
I think that is a pretty accurate description. There were times when he made everybody on the ice better. But as time went by it became more about the show.
- spatso


So much talent and no brains.
Barrykerr1
Joined: 08.06.2014

Jul 7 @ 8:26 PM ET
The Pageau trade was great but the Karlsson trade was a grand slam! The San Jose first round pick will give the Senators a star player whether it is Byfield or Stutzle. King Karl was hurt bad and was not the player he once was. It is correct that fast players were easily getting by him which rarely happened before he got hurt.

sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jul 7 @ 8:40 PM ET
Karlsson was an entertainer not a winner.
- granpa


he almost singlehandedly dragged a mediocre team to within a goal of the cup finals, on 1 leg. if that had happened on a team like the leafs or rangers, Disney would have made a (frank)ing movie about it. just because the poop teams he played on never won a cup, doesn't mean he wasn't a winner.
granpa
Joined: 07.03.2015

Jul 7 @ 9:04 PM ET
he almost singlehandedly dragged a mediocre team to within a goal of the cup finals, on 1 leg. if that had happened on a team like the leafs or rangers, Disney would have made a (frank)ing movie about it. just because the poop teams he played on never won a cup, doesn't mean he wasn't a winner.
- sensarmy_11

I'm not going to debate karlson's talent because he was extremely talented but he was a loose canon.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jul 7 @ 9:42 PM ET
I'm not going to debate karlson's talent because he was extremely talented but he was a loose canon.
- granpa


in what sense?
Trilla
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 06.02.2013

Jul 7 @ 9:59 PM ET
Dude not agreeing with Spatso is a criminal offence here.
I have explained my love and excitement with Ottawa for months and still I'm talked down to and in most cases ignored. It's kind of rude but I guess understandable considering I was a Leafs fan (RIP).

- SarthGnome


You’re comments aren’t ignored my dude. It’s awesome we could get more Sens fans in on the chat.

I was never a leafs fan even though I live in Toronto, but I still like individual players on that team.


Who do you think Sens should take 3rd and 5th?
granpa
Joined: 07.03.2015

Jul 8 @ 7:56 AM ET
in what sense?
- sensarmy_11


Some of the decisions he made. Brain cramps .
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Jul 8 @ 9:24 AM ET
Some of the decisions he made. Brain cramps .
- granpa


Sometimes there are more than 2 correct answers to the same question.

I think there was a time during the playoff run that everything came together for Karlsson and for the team. It was about winning. The show was the run and Karlsson may have had a playoff stretch as good as Ottawa has ever seen. There is no doubt he was able to pull it all together for that playoff run. I have no doubt that he once possessed outstanding elite talent.

We knew it was over the first moment when we heard that Dorion had asked Karlsson for his list of possible trade teams. Karlsson was pushed out, make no mistake, Dorion was always okay with moving him and it had everything to do with what was going on, on the ice.


SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Jul 8 @ 9:41 AM ET
Karlsson was an entertainer not a winner.
- granpa

The only reason that Karlsson is not a Stanley Cup champion is that he was not surrounded with enough talent. In big moments, he took charge and delivered for the team.
farooge
Nashville Predators
Location: Nashville, TN
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jul 8 @ 10:02 AM ET
By taking advantage of Pageau’s scorching hot start to the year,and finding the right vulnerable trade partner


yeah ... "Lou is a good GM" is a great narrative for other GM's (but good trade nonetheless)
farooge
Nashville Predators
Location: Nashville, TN
Joined: 08.25.2006

Jul 8 @ 10:18 AM ET

Ran the simulator 30 times and the winner is........

- optimus-reim


Why is doing this a thing? What predictive value does it have? I'm a software developer and I am the (exact) type of person who could write a simulation like this.

Trust me, it's useless for anything but fun.
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 8 @ 1:25 PM ET
Sometimes there are more than 2 correct answers to the same question.

I think there was a time during the playoff run that everything came together for Karlsson and for the team. It was about winning. The show was the run and Karlsson may have had a playoff stretch as good as Ottawa has ever seen. There is no doubt he was able to pull it all together for that playoff run. I have no doubt that he once possessed outstanding elite talent.

We knew it was over the first moment when we heard that Dorion had asked Karlsson for his list of possible trade teams. Karlsson was pushed out, make no mistake, Dorion was always okay with moving him and it had everything to do with what was going on, on the ice.

- spatso

Dude was a fine player and leader in his prime. As sensarmy mentioned, basically singlehandedly carried the team to one goal of a Finals appearance. You even saw his injuries catching up with him during the run.

His injuries caught up with him and in hindsight, it was a good time to move on. But for people to comment that he made poor decisions etc is absurd.

The "let's hate on the former player" rhetoric is old.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jul 8 @ 2:32 PM ET
His injuries caught up with him and in hindsight, it was a good time to move on.
- Gord_Wilson_2.0

As much as Dorion may have gotten lucky with the Sharks' 1st round pick this year, this was the part of the trade that he got 100% right. People who think you can only evaluate trades on the day they're made would be wise to consider that. It's only further compounded by the extent to which Karlsson's $11.5Mx8yrs contract is already concerning just 1 year after being signed.

In many ways, I view the Spezza trade in a similar light. They obviously didn't get the same kind of home-run return from the trade (with all due respect to Nick Paul), but in terms of the emerging rate of decline in Spezza's game, it's abundantly clear that the alternative of signing him to a long-term extension would have been catastrophic. While difficult and highly unpopular decisions at the time, you have to give the team credit for recognizing the need for these moves.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jul 8 @ 2:38 PM ET
As much as Dorion may have gotten lucky with the Sharks' 1st round pick this year, this was the part of the trade that he got 100% right. People who think you can only evaluate trades on the day they're made would be wise to consider that. It's only further compounded by the extent to which Karlsson's $11.5Mx8yrs contract is already concerning just 1 year after being signed.

In many ways, I view the Spezza trade in a similar light. They obviously didn't get the same kind of home-run return from the trade (with all due respect to Nick Paul), but in terms of the emerging rate of decline in Spezza's game, it's abundantly clear that the alternative of signing him to a long-term extension would have been catastrophic. While difficult and highly unpopular decisions at the time, you have to give the team credit for recognizing the need for these moves.

- khawk


I would agree with that if not for the fact that they got rid of him because Melnyk couldn't afford to keep him, not because they were smart and decided to move him before injuries caught up with him.

the decision to move karlsson was 100% based on Melnyk not wanting to spend money....that's it, that's all.....if Dorion had free financial reign, guarantee that karlsson is still in Ottawa making that money right now

Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Jul 8 @ 3:05 PM ET
As much as Dorion may have gotten lucky with the Sharks' 1st round pick this year, this was the part of the trade that he got 100% right. People who think you can only evaluate trades on the day they're made would be wise to consider that. It's only further compounded by the extent to which Karlsson's $11.5Mx8yrs contract is already concerning just 1 year after being signed.

In many ways, I view the Spezza trade in a similar light. They obviously didn't get the same kind of home-run return from the trade (with all due respect to Nick Paul), but in terms of the emerging rate of decline in Spezza's game, it's abundantly clear that the alternative of signing him to a long-term extension would have been catastrophic. While difficult and highly unpopular decisions at the time, you have to give the team credit for recognizing the need for these moves.

- khawk

Both are examples of blessings in disguise as if this wasn't Ottawa or Melnyk's team, these moves could have been quite different.

I still struggle with the Spezza move more then I did with the Karlsson move. Spezza was still reasonably productive in 2016 (63 points in 75 games) and 2017 (50 points in 68 games). I suspect having Spezza playing 1-2 centre with Turris (55 points in 78 games in 2017) would have been a pretty ok 1-2 punch during the Cup run in 2017.

I will admit, his production fell after that for the last 2 years of the deal he signed.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Jul 8 @ 3:42 PM ET
the decision to move karlsson was 100% based on Melnyk not wanting to spend money....that's it, that's all.....if Dorion had free financial reign, guarantee that karlsson is still in Ottawa making that money right now
- sensarmy_11

When Karlsson declared he would be signing for nothing less than Doughty-type money/term, it definitely did change the conversation... but I think some people are a bit one-dimensional when it comes to the Melnyk issue. It's pretty evident that Dorion legitimately tried very hard to re-sign Stone (and had license to do so), they took back considerably more salary/term in the Ceci trade, they signed Hainsey for $3.5M just to keep the new coach happy, and they handed Chabot/White a pair of long-term extensions worth nearly $13M/year as soon as the extensions were possible... and will almost certainly aim to do the same with Tkachuk. Money is still spent when and where it makes sense, and is aligned with the team's direction.

Conversely, if people think the 2017/18 season wasn't regarded by the team as writing on the wall, then I think they're missing a big part of the decision making process. Really consider for a minute that the follow-up to the team's unexpected Conference Finals run was to slide back to the 2nd worst record in the league, despite having all of Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, Hoffman, Pageau, Brassard, Dzingel, Anderson, Phaneuf, and Chabot on the roster for most of the year. Plus, your franchise player puts up his worst season by far since his catastrophic injury, and then makes a public declaration of expecting $11.5M/8yrs, with all kinds of up-front signing bonus money. I'm sorry, but regardless of who is signing the cheques, that's just not a group that you're going to double-down your investment on.
SensFan25
Ottawa Senators
Location: ON
Joined: 08.24.2006

Jul 8 @ 3:49 PM ET
I would agree with that if not for the fact that they got rid of him because Melnyk couldn't afford to keep him, not because they were smart and decided to move him before injuries caught up with him.

the decision to move karlsson was 100% based on Melnyk not wanting to spend money....that's it, that's all.....if Dorion had free financial reign, guarantee that karlsson is still in Ottawa making that money right now

- sensarmy_11


Karlsson's relationship with the team had soured more than a year before he was traded. From everything I had read, Karlsson wanted top dollar and wanted to move on as well. Is it a follow on from Alfredsson's relationship with the team?

Long term, high dollar contracts signed in a player's late 20s is a high risk move for a team, especially for the last years of the contract. Considering that Ottawa wouldn't compete for more than the playoffs for the first 3+ years of a Karlsson deal, trading him for the best return was the right move for Ottawa.

Melnyk is cheap and everything gets looked at from a cost/value perspective. That is not entirely a bad thing. Just look at the number of teams with bad long term contracts on older players.

When Karlsson was traded, he was an elite talent with recent injury troubles with an expressed desire to be the highest paid player at his position. Karlsson only had 1 year left when he was moved. The return that the team received for that 1 year of Karlsson's services was very solid - and that is before you add in the 3rd overall pick in the 2020 draft.
sensarmy_11
Location: NS
Joined: 06.01.2009

Jul 8 @ 4:03 PM ET
When Karlsson declared he would be signing for nothing less than Doughty-type money/term, it definitely did change the conversation... but I think some people are a bit one-dimensional when it comes to the Melnyk issue. It's pretty evident that Dorion legitimately tried very hard to re-sign Stone (and had license to do so), they took back considerably more salary/term in the Ceci trade, they signed Hainsey for $3.5M just to keep the new coach happy, and they handed Chabot/White a pair of long-term extensions worth nearly $13M/year as soon as the extensions were possible... and will almost certainly aim to do the same with Tkachuk. Money is still spent when and where it makes sense, and is aligned with the team's direction.

Conversely, if people think the 2017/18 season wasn't regarded by the team as writing on the wall, then I think they're missing a big part of the decision making process. Really consider for a minute that the follow-up to the team's unexpected Conference Finals run was to slide back to the 2nd worst record in the league, despite having all of Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, Hoffman, Pageau, Brassard, Dzingel, Anderson, Phaneuf, and Chabot on the roster for most of the year. Plus, your franchise player puts up his worst season by far since his catastrophic injury, and then makes a public declaration of expecting $11.5M/8yrs, with all kinds of up-front signing bonus money. I'm sorry, but regardless of who is signing the cheques, that's just not a group that you're going to double-down your investment on.

- khawk


I don't believe for one second that they made a legitimate effort to re-sign stone.....not for ONE SECOND.

in the ceci deal, they took make more money overall, but it was for 2 players instead of one.....Zaitsev and ceci make the same, and brown is a steal at 2.1. they just didn't want to have to pay ceci more than 4.5 in arbitration, or lose him for nothing. again, that move was all about Melnyk saving money

the chabot and white deals also show how broke Melnyk is since neither one involve a penny of signing bonus I believe.

every move this team makes is about putting more money in Melnyk's pocket, and not about making this team better...….and nobody will ever be able to convince me otherwise
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Jul 8 @ 4:31 PM ET
I've always been confused as to why people thought the San Jose pick was going to be so low. They are an aging team and I'm pretty sure Dorion asked for the 2020 pick having the feeling they would regress, which they did. If course, third overall needed some luck, but this could easily have been an 8-12 pick without luck. I think it was a pretty good deal from the start, especially since everyone knew Karlsson was on the trade block, but circumpstances made it great.
- YodaOldBoy
On paper, they have a team that can easily make the playoffs. Burns, Karlsson, Thornton maybe older but still brings tons of compete and impact. But then you look at the young stars Couture, Hertl, Meier -- even Kevin Labanc and Evanader Kane killed it the previous year.
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