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Forums :: Blog World :: Ben Shelley: Update on the Ilya Sorokin situation
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eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Jul 8 @ 2:07 PM ET
I’d say you’re pretty much in the ballpark with your predictions. Except for Toews. I doubt he gets more than 3 per on any bridge deal.
- Wildschwein

Well yeah, that's kinda why I threw in the give/take 500k.

Toews is pretty solid and I don't think $3.5M-ish is that far off. Maybe I should've said 3.5 +/- 500k.

I don't think $4M is insane for him but it's probably on the high side. He's already 26 so he's only got a year until UFA, that's why I thought it could be a tad higher. They'd essentially be buying a year or two of UFA from him at that cost.
Wildschwein
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.17.2012

Jul 8 @ 2:24 PM ET
Well yeah, that's kinda why I threw in the give/take 500k.

Toews is pretty solid and I don't think $3.5M-ish is that far off. Maybe I should've said 3.5 +/- 500k.

I don't think $4M is insane for him but it's probably on the high side. He's already 26 so he's only got a year until UFA, that's why I thought it could be a tad higher. They'd essentially be buying a year or two of UFA from him at that cost.

- eichiefs9


I totally forgot about his age. Yes, you’re likely correct then.

Oh and (frank) you. Just cause I’ve missed you.
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Jul 8 @ 2:26 PM ET
I totally forgot about his age. Yes, you’re likely correct then.

Oh and (frank) you. Just cause I’ve missed you.

- Wildschwein

Puckin_Island
New York Islanders
Location: Do not disturb: I love awkward silence
Joined: 08.28.2019

Jul 8 @ 2:28 PM ET
Jim Baumbach @jimbaumbach
1h
Nassau County sends "Notice of Default" to Coliseum operator, demands $2,079,903.28 in unpaid rent within 15 days or else risk terminating the lease. Wants to bring them to table to discuss options, essentially. Story on Newsday.com soon.

- eichiefs9


That's probably what he wants.
nyisles7
New York Islanders
Location: Wrong timing, NY
Joined: 01.20.2009

Jul 8 @ 2:31 PM ET
Pure speculation?

Barzal: $8.5M x 4
Pulock: $6.5M x 6 OR $5M x 2 (if he wants to burn the last two years of his RFA status and be a UFA at 27)
Toews: $4M x 2-3 years

Maybe give-or-take 500k on all of those. Not 100% confident on those predictions because the pandemic and flat-cap with no compliance buyouts are going to complicate matters for sure.

- eichiefs9



Me thinks plus or minus 500K:

Barzal: $7.5M x 7
Pulock: $5M x 2 (if he wants to burn the last two years of his RFA status and be a UFA at 27) We agree on this one. Similar to McAvoy.
Toews: $2.5 for 3 or 4 years.



nyisles7
New York Islanders
Location: Wrong timing, NY
Joined: 01.20.2009

Jul 8 @ 2:35 PM ET
That's probably what he wants.
- Puckin_Island



I tend to agree, opening the door to have a short term deal with the Islanders until Belmont is officially opened. This also gives the County time to look for a new deal to develop the land. Malkin anyone?
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Jul 8 @ 2:41 PM ET
Me thinks plus or minus 500K:

Barzal: $7.5M x 7
Pulock: $5M x 2 (if he wants to burn the last two years of his RFA status and be a UFA at 27) We agree on this one. Similar to McAvoy.
Toews: $2.5 for 3 or 4 years.

- nyisles7

We pretty much average out to an agreement on Barzal...on AAV anyway. I don't think he's going long-term. None of the top-RFA's are on their first deals anymore. If he did I think they'd have to be paying him way more than that.

I think Toews is a little low for that term. I could see $2.5M x 1 year if he just wanted to bridge himself to UFA, but if he's going to give us a few years of UFA then I think he'd have to be compensated a little more than that.
Puckin_Island
New York Islanders
Location: Do not disturb: I love awkward silence
Joined: 08.28.2019

Jul 8 @ 2:44 PM ET
I tend to agree, opening the door to have a short term deal with the Islanders until Belmont is officially opened. This also gives the County time to look for a new deal for develop the land. Malkin anyone?
- nyisles7


Yep, and the county prevents the coli from getting mired in any debt negotiations / bankruptcy mess. I still believe some of that $100 million in debt will be found to have been shifted away from Barclays, which he sold, to the coli. The whole thing could get very messy, so it's wise to extricate the coli now, even though they will lose most of that back rent. It's hard to force him to pay rent when the gov't said he must cease operations during the pandemic.

Malkin and Co. were looking at acquiring the rights to the Coli and property just before the Ruskie acquired it.
nyisles7
New York Islanders
Location: Wrong timing, NY
Joined: 01.20.2009

Jul 8 @ 2:49 PM ET
We pretty much average out to an agreement on Barzal...on AAV anyway. I don't think he's going long-term. None of the top-RFA's are on their first deals anymore. If he did I think they'd have to be paying him way more than that.

I think Toews is a little low for that term. I could see $2.5M x 1 year if he just wanted to bridge himself to UFA, but if he's going to give us a few years of UFA then I think he'd have to be compensated a little more than that.

- eichiefs9



Yup, going to be interesting for sure. We could also be shocked that they come in lower because of the 2 year freeze. It's an unknown really and the GM's have to tighten up.
nyisles7
New York Islanders
Location: Wrong timing, NY
Joined: 01.20.2009

Jul 8 @ 2:51 PM ET
Yep, and the county prevents the coli from getting mired in any debt negotiations / bankruptcy mess. I still believe some of that $100 million in debt will be found to have been shifted away from Barclays, which he sold, to the coli. The whole thing could get very messy, so it's wise to extricate the coli now, even though they will lose most of that back rent. It's hard to force him to pay rent when the gov't said he must cease operations during the pandemic.

Malkin and Co. were looking at acquiring the rights to the Coli and property just before the Ruskie acquired it.

- Puckin_Island


All in all Nassau County created another mess!
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Jul 8 @ 2:57 PM ET
Yup, going to be interesting for sure. We could also be shocked that they come in lower because of the 2 year freeze. It's an unknown really and the GM's have to tighten up.
- nyisles7

Yeah we'll see I guess. Might work in teams' favor to have that freeze, in the long run. I wouldn't be surprised to see everyone sign 2 year deals either.
niteislander
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 01.13.2010

Jul 8 @ 3:15 PM ET
I don't think that pointing out that the Isles are going to face a bit of a cap crunch is saying "the sky is falling".

All those guys you listed that are coming off the cap will barely cover Barzal's contract alone, then you still need to sign Sorokin (or another goalie), Pulock, and Toews. You could potentially be looking at close to, if not more than, $20M in added money from Barzal/Sorokin/Pulock/Toews with less than $13M coming off the cap.

All of the rest of that money coming off the cap down the line still has to be replaced with NHL-level talent. Maybe Wahlstrom/Bellows/etc... can fill some of that void but there's no guarantee they'll be viable options and I think we can all agree that the current management/coaching regime clearly favors veteran players to young guys. The next offseason after this one you're looking at having to re-sign Pelech and Beau, which won't be super-cheap either.

There are certainly options, mainly trying to trade Leddy and/or Bailey at some point, to free up room but nothing is a guarantee and then you're just creating another roster hole that you're hoping can be filled by cheap young guys. They better hope Wahlstrom and Bellows turn out to be genuine NHL scorers because if not they're going to be in a tough spot up front.

- eichiefs9



When every single article talks about the Isles "cap issues" and then every other comment discusses it... and you have people saying.. "if only we had that $5 mill Pageau money" .. that is what I meant by the Sky is falling.

They will sign Barzal for 8-9 mill for 6 years.. the rest will get Bridge deals. Sorokin will get 3 mil ish for 2 years or 2.5 for 1. In 2 years they will lock up Pulock, Toews, etc. You would hope by then that of all of our prospects a couple of them are not busts and are on the team... a few might be a bust.. they won't all be.
niteislander
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 01.13.2010

Jul 8 @ 3:16 PM ET
Me thinks plus or minus 500K:

Barzal: $7.5M x 7
Pulock: $5M x 2 (if he wants to burn the last two years of his RFA status and be a UFA at 27) We agree on this one. Similar to McAvoy.
Toews: $2.5 for 3 or 4 years.

- nyisles7


too low on Barzal IMO.. rest seem right.
niteislander
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 01.13.2010

Jul 8 @ 3:18 PM ET
Lou will push a lot of these contracts to when he has all that $$ coming off the books in 2 years and you would think there is a higher cap limit. You may lose another contract to additional buy-outs in new CBA deal or lose a guy in Expansion draft. If that becomes $30++ mill in room by then... They wil have more then enough Cap room.
nyisles7
New York Islanders
Location: Wrong timing, NY
Joined: 01.20.2009

Jul 8 @ 3:47 PM ET
Yeah we'll see I guess. Might work in teams' favor to have that freeze, in the long run. I wouldn't be surprised to see everyone sign 2 year deals either.
- eichiefs9



Very well could. This Virus has thrown a curve ball to all businesses and our way of life.
nyisles7
New York Islanders
Location: Wrong timing, NY
Joined: 01.20.2009

Jul 8 @ 3:49 PM ET
too low on Barzal IMO.. rest seem right.
- niteislander



Could be right but I looked at Nico's deal with the Devils and figured Barzal's better but there's the salary freeze to content with so there's no throw away money right now. Its like the Cap was lowered. Just my opinion of course and I'm always wrong so ...
eichiefs9
New York Islanders
Location: NY
Joined: 11.03.2008

Jul 8 @ 4:10 PM ET
When every single article talks about the Isles "cap issues" and then every other comment discusses it... and you have people saying.. "if only we had that $5 mill Pageau money" .. that is what I meant by the Sky is falling.

They will sign Barzal for 8-9 mill for 6 years.. the rest will get Bridge deals. Sorokin will get 3 mil ish for 2 years or 2.5 for 1. In 2 years they will lock up Pulock, Toews, etc. You would hope by then that of all of our prospects a couple of them are not busts and are on the team... a few might be a bust.. they won't all be.

- niteislander

Well they do have cap issues. They're not unsolvable, but they're still issues.

Barzal almost certainly isn't signing for 6 years either.
Puckin_Island
New York Islanders
Location: Do not disturb: I love awkward silence
Joined: 08.28.2019

Jul 8 @ 4:13 PM ET
When every single article talks about the Isles "cap issues" and then every other comment discusses it... and you have people saying.. "if only we had that $5 mill Pageau money" .. that is what I meant by the Sky is falling.

They will sign Barzal for 8-9 mill for 6 years.. the rest will get Bridge deals. Sorokin will get 3 mil ish for 2 years or 2.5 for 1. In 2 years they will lock up Pulock, Toews, etc. You would hope by then that of all of our prospects a couple of them are not busts and are on the team... a few might be a bust.. they won't all be.

- niteislander


lol Wait until next year. That's when the sky will be falling if Lou can't unload $15 million.

Then I'll REALLY wish we had Pageaus $5 million.



Wildschwein
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.17.2012

Jul 8 @ 6:10 PM ET
lol Wait until next year. That's when the sky will be falling if Lou can't unload $15 million.

Then I'll REALLY wish we had Pageaus $5 million.

- Puckin_Island


Hypothetically speaking, if you had Pageau’s 5 million in hand, who’d be the Islanders 3C?
Puckin_Island
New York Islanders
Location: Do not disturb: I love awkward silence
Joined: 08.28.2019

Jul 8 @ 6:24 PM ET
Hypothetically speaking, if you had Pageau’s 5 million in hand, who’d be the Islanders 3C?
- Wildschwein


Cizikas. Brassard centers checking line. He didn't work out on a scoring line (which is why we got Pageau), so let him check. I think once Cizikas adjusts to playmaking rather than checking, he could be almost as good as Pageau was last year.

Pageau is a better center, but we're talking about cap and lost draft picks to get him.
Puckin_Island
New York Islanders
Location: Do not disturb: I love awkward silence
Joined: 08.28.2019

Jul 8 @ 6:30 PM ET
Lou will push a lot of these contracts to when he has all that $$ coming off the books in 2 years and you would think there is a higher cap limit. You may lose another contract to additional buy-outs in new CBA deal or lose a guy in Expansion draft. If that becomes $30++ mill in room by then... They wil have more then enough Cap room.
- niteislander


Expansion draft. Another reason not to sign Sorokin just yet.

Hey Ben, there's a good article for you. Who should Lou protect?
nyisles7
New York Islanders
Location: Wrong timing, NY
Joined: 01.20.2009

Jul 8 @ 7:13 PM ET
lol Wait until next year. That's when the sky will be falling if Lou can't unload $15 million.

Then I'll REALLY wish we had Pageaus $5 million.

- Puckin_Island



Puckin_Island
New York Islanders
Location: Do not disturb: I love awkward silence
Joined: 08.28.2019

Jul 8 @ 7:47 PM ET
Cptmjl
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.05.2011

Jul 8 @ 8:18 PM ET
Cizikas. Brassard centers checking line. He didn't work out on a scoring line (which is why we got Pageau), so let him check. I think once Cizikas adjusts to playmaking rather than checking, he could be almost as good as Pageau was last year.

Pageau is a better center, but we're talking about cap and lost draft picks to get him.

- Puckin_Island

🤮 to all of this.
Cptmjl
New York Islanders
Joined: 11.05.2011

Jul 8 @ 8:19 PM ET
Well they do have cap issues. They're not unsolvable, but they're still issues.

Barzal almost certainly isn't signing for 6 years either.

- eichiefs9

Correct but they have no cap issues the sky is not falling. Stop losing your mind.
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