all things being relatively equal, i'd take boeser over those two
- Michael Pachla

I think the question would be how much more do we have to give up for Boeser?
And would it be worth it?

If it’s closer to my Montour + a prospect idea,
then yes

If it’s Risto + Mitts + a 1st like Pegulaville suggested,
then I’d say no

Thx genius, watch the vid.
- SuperCat

:/

I think the question would be how much more do we have to give up for Boeser?
And would it be worth it?

If it’s closer to my Montour + a prospect idea,
then yes

If it’s Risto + Mitts + a 1st like Pegulaville suggested,
then I’d say no
- jdfitz77

This is a fair take, I'd be surprised if they let him go for so little though.

boeser,skinner,VO would be fun

First off, I should apologize, I have the wrong numbers. To date, Boeser's total shooting percentage exceeds Eichel's by about a percent. The difference here is Eichel's has gotten better, while Boeser's has gotten worse. You can find individual shooting percentage at any game state for each player on naturalstattrick.

Second, this is where shooting above expected goals for comes in handy. Boeser's shot quality gives him a total xg of 17 (all game states), while he scored 16. This means he actually underperformed his scoring tally relative to the quality of chances he had.

Eichel posted an xg of 22.4, while scoring 35 (he actually has 36 so there must be one goal here that hes credited for but had no effect on?). So while the average person would score 22 goals with the shot locations Eichel had, Eichel managed to score 35, this is what good shooters typically do.

Why discount the powerplay for sh%? Well, shooting percentage there tends to be more a product of the unit itself rather than the individual. The canucks had the 4th best powerplay in the entire league. The Sabres were 20th. Converting on the man advantage on average is less about an individuals shooting talent and more about how well the unit can implement a good strategy, move the puck, and remain unpredictable.

This isn't to say being a good shooter doesn't help you on the power play, but theres a reason why people shoot better on the power play than 5v5. It's easier to get time and space. The hallmark of a good shooter is his ability to score goals from areas where the average person usually doesn't, despite the fact his time and space is limited.
- Michael Ghofrani

Looks like you’re reaching here too hard to discredit Boeser
He’s still a guy that can pop in 30 goals
I don’t expect him to be a superstar

What RW are u bringing in who doesn’t have some sort of questions/concerns?

I think the question would be how much more do we have to give up for Boeser?
And would it be worth it?

If it’s closer to my Montour + a prospect idea,
then yes

If it’s Risto + Mitts + a 1st like Pegulaville suggested,
then I’d say no
- jdfitz77

yup

This is a fair take, I'd be surprised if they let him go for so little though.
- Michael Ghofrani

You're probably right... good think they have Benning

Looks like you’re reaching here too hard to discredit Boeser
He’s still a guy that can pop in 30 goals
I don’t expect him to be a superstar

What RW are u bringing in who doesn’t have some sort of questions/concerns?
- jdfitz77

Not reaching, research.

We got what it takes to get Boeser


Wait, they are moving Boeser?

he's scored nearly a third of his goals and points on the 'nucks no. 1 pp unit, his ozone starts are over 75% the last two seasons and he's missed 20, 11 and 12 games, respectively over the past three seasons...add in jerry's note about the $7.5 million salary leading up to a qualifying offer at the end of 2021-22 and there are some concerns, yes
- Michael Pachla

I did some digging.

For the top 50 scorers in the NHL last season, the average percent of power play points compared to total points was 30.54%.

Boeser was at 31.11% and Reinhart was at 22%.

This past season, Boeser actually had more power play time compared to Reinhart despite playing 12 less games.

Sam has been the better overall scorer at even strength the past 2 years, and especially this year.

As someone else accurately said, it seems like a lateral move unless Boeser can begin playing full seasons (78+ games), in terms of salary and production, and spending major assets should be saved to address the Center position over Boeser.

I did some digging.

For the top 50 scorers in the NHL last season, the average percent of power play points compared to total points was 30.54%.

Boeser was at 31.11% and Reinhart was at 22%.

This past season, Boeser actually had more power play time compared to Reinhart despite playing 12 less games.

Sam has been the better overall scorer at even strength the past 2 years, and especially this year.

As someone else accurately said, it seems like a lateral move unless Boeser can begin playing full seasons (78+ games), in terms of salary and production, and spending major assets should be saved to address the Center position over Boeser.
- kingcong39

Sam is the better player.

However Boeser would address a need in the top 6 also like several have said, as long as the price is right.

Couldn’t you say the same for Skinner ?

I can pay Boeser $6M to shoot 15% playing with Eichel.
- Pegullaville

Would you pay Boeser $7.5M or more when his current deal is up for that?

Are we sure his shooting percentage is going to go back up that much due to Eichel?

Pettersson and Miller just had two excellent seasons and you would think both of those players would help Boeser's shooting percentage.

Sam is the better player.

However Boeser would address a need in the top 6 also like several have said, as long as the price is right.
- Pegullaville

Like Homie said, if the cost is Montour, absolutely no question.

If the cost becomes Montour, Mittelstadt, and a 1st round pick, I stay away.

There's also the cap ramifications of having 3 RW players totaling $18M when one of those three is a 4th line player and there is a huge need at Center.

We got what it takes to get Boeser

Wait, they are moving Boeser?
- SABRES 89

Who knows, but it was a rumor shared yesterday.

I would not give up too much for Boeser, and definitely not the 8th overall in the draft this year.

Not reaching, research.
- Michael Ghofrani

No, you’re reaching

The guy can be a 30 goal scorer
We NEED a RW that can score

Again... what RW u bringing in that doesn’t have any concerns?

No, you’re reaching

The guy can be a 30 goal scorer
We NEED a RW that can score

Again... what RW u bringing in that doesn’t have any concerns?
- jdfitz77

No, I'm researching. Because as you probably already know, there's quite a bit that goes into the goals and assists. That's what that research was for. It indicates that his goal scoring is more likely to be a product of the teammates around him than his own shooting talent.

To answer your second question, Im not sure yet. I don't know who is available and even then, 2RW is not the highest priority.

I did some digging.

For the top 50 scorers in the NHL last season, the average percent of power play points compared to total points was 30.54%.

Boeser was at 31.11% and Reinhart was at 22%.

This past season, Boeser actually had more power play time compared to Reinhart despite playing 12 less games.

Sam has been the better overall scorer at even strength the past 2 years, and especially this year.

As someone else accurately said, it seems like a lateral move unless Boeser can begin playing full seasons (78+ games), in terms of salary and production, and spending major assets should be saved to address the Center position over Boeser.
- kingcong39

This is a great post and probably took some time.

If you were to look at brocks and Sam's career power play points, sam has 13 more pp goals and 21 more pp points.

Brock 197 gp 107 non power play points
Scoring non pp points in 54% of his games

Sam 400 gp 180 non power play points
Scoring non pp points in 45% of his games

Sorry if I did the math wrong ?

i like boeser and would gladly have him in a 2RW role for the Sabres...but some of his stats give cause for pause
- Michael Pachla

The question about Boeser is, with the amount of damage he does on the power play, if Reinhart and Olofsson are both still on the team, who are they moving off the 1st power play unit to make room for Boeser?

You’re depending on signing UFAs that should be able to get the $$$ u have us signing them for from a better team
With what a sh!tshow we are right now,
it’s tough for me to imagine that happening
- jdfitz77

I factored in slightly overpaying as Evolving Hockey did not factor in the current situation in terms of the pandemic and the flat cap the next 2 seasons.

I am guessing Evolving Hockey's projections are higher than what reality will be due to the above.

Sam is the better player.

However Boeser would address a need in the top 6 also like several have said, as long as the price is right.
- Pegullaville

That’s really the only question for me

Boeser > Tuch or Anderson if they all cost roughly the same

But if Vegas wants to give Tuch away for relatively little bc of their Cap issues, then sweet

Idk of Cbus is gonna let Anderson go as cheaply
They don’t have Cap concerns (i don’t think?)
So they can afford to hang onto him & see if he bounces back instead of “selling low”

Solid build

I'd be surprised to see the kings move on from Roy

Merrill is a sneaky good signing, in the right conditions I could see him ahead of McCabe even.

This one's more of a gut feeling than analytically supported, but I'd like to see the Sabres give CJ Smith a real chance at the NHL level.

Should also say that given where the market is headed im inclined to think the preds will hang on to bonino but in general still an ideal target if they'd listen.
- Michael Ghofrani

I don't think the Predators are trading Bonino either, as I believe they are planning on extending him.

I would be shocked if the Kings traded Roy, but if there is any chance they would trade him for Asplund, I would be all over that and quickly.

Who knows, but it was a rumor shared yesterday.

I would not give up too much for Boeser, and definitely not the 8th overall in the draft this year.
- kingcong39

Pick8 this year is almost untouchable for me
Would have to be a player like Point for me to consider it

The question about Boeser is, with the amount of damage he does on the power play, if Reinhart and Olofsson are both still on the team, who are they moving off the 1st power play unit to make room for Boeser?
- kingcong39

Johansson

That’s really the only question for me

Boeser > Tuch or Anderson if they all cost roughly the same

But if Vegas wants to give Tuch away for relatively little bc of their Cap issues, then sweet

Idk of Cbus is gonna let Anderson go as cheaply
They don’t have Cap concerns (i don’t think?)
So they can afford to hang onto him & see if he bounces back instead of “selling low”
- jdfitz77

How about Reilly Smith instead of Tuch from Vegas?

He had his 3rd straight quality season, and he scored only 9% of his total points on the power play.

He only has a modified NTC, he only has two years left on his current deal that pays him $5M per, he's an RW, and he's from Ontario (I couldn't resist adding that LOL).

Pick8 this year is almost untouchable for me
Would have to be a player like Point for me to consider it
- jdfitz77

100% agreed on the above.

It would have to be part of a deal that would bring back a Center of that quality.