Hi All! Apologies, but I'll be out of commission for the next couple days for my wedding. Will be back with a new blog Sunday night.
- Michael_Stuart

Congratulation Mike; enjoy the wedding & mostly the party!

Hi All! Apologies, but I'll be out of commission for the next couple days for my wedding. Will be back with a new blog Sunday night.
- Michael_Stuart

Ayyyyy Congratz Michael!

-What year did the Oilers neglect picking a dman in the first round? They got Nurse, Klefbom, Broberg, Bouchard all in the first round.
- Trilla

Well, even though 2 of those players haven't played in the NHL yet, that kind of shows that the Oilers have learned their lesson. I'm talking about the 6-year stretch prior to drafting Nurse, where the team went out of their way to pick nothing but forwards with their first pick of the draft.

2007 Gagner - McDonagh, Shattenkirk
2008 Eberle - Carlson
2009 Paajarvi - Ellis, Kulikov
2010 Hall - No Dispute
2011 Nugent-Hopkins - Larsson, Hamilton
2012 Yakupov - Murray, Rielly

Now, I don't really dispute Hall because he was identified as an objectively high-end #1 pick at the time (like Kane, Stamkos, Tavares, etc.), but the same can't be said of picks like Nugent-Hopkins and Yakupov, which were known to be weaker draft years. In fact, when the Leafs drafted Rielly in 2012, they went out of their way to say they had him ranked #1, which is entirely possible given the relative weakness of the top-4 of that draft class. The Oilers could have traded down, or just traded the pick outright, but instead just kept piling on to a position where they really didn't need additional talent.

Regardless, I just stand by my point that a small-market team would be wise to consider positional need, and not just be a slave to BPA - especially where there are marginal differences in perceived value. And right now, I don't see any huge BPA gap between the likes of Rossi, Drysdale, Perfetti, Raymond, and Holtz. So I'd hope that the team takes advantage of a chance to fill in a serious hole in their roster, instead of just further piling on to a roster position where they already have quality and depth.

Well, even though 2 of those players haven't played in the NHL yet, that kind of shows that the Oilers have learned their lesson. I'm talking about the 6-year stretch prior to drafting Nurse, where the team went out of their way to pick nothing but forwards with their first pick of the draft.

2007 Gagner - McDonagh, Shattenkirk
2008 Eberle - Carlson
2009 Paajarvi - Ellis, Kulikov
2010 Hall - No Dispute
2011 Nugent-Hopkins - Larsson, Hamilton
2012 Yakupov - Murray, Rielly

Now, I don't really dispute Hall because he was identified as an objectively high-end #1 pick at the time (like Kane, Stamkos, Tavares, etc.), but the same can't be said of picks like Nugent-Hopkins and Yakupov, which were known to be weaker draft years. In fact, when the Leafs drafted Rielly in 2012, they went out of their way to say they had him ranked #1, which is entirely possible given the relative weakness of the top-4 of that draft class. The Oilers could have traded down, or just traded the pick outright, but instead just kept piling on to a position where they really didn't need additional talent.

Regardless, I just stand by my point that a small-market team would be wise to consider positional need, and not just be a slave to BPA - especially where there are marginal differences in perceived value. And right now, I don't see any huge BPA gap between the likes of Rossi, Drysdale, Perfetti, Raymond, and Holtz. So I'd hope that the team takes advantage of a chance to fill in a serious hole in their roster, instead of just further piling on to a roster position where they already have quality and depth.
- khawk

Good post. Only issue I have is with Yakupov. I recall him being more highly touted than you insinuating here. People were in love with the guy as soon as he broke one of Stamkos's junior goal scoring records.

In terms of best player available vs positional need, it will be interesting to see what happens at 5. I think everyone knows this team lack 1st line potential in the system so this is a great opportunity to try to address that. That in a way is positional need.

if Chabot is going to be "the guy" on the back end having Drysdale is fine because he is a right shot. However, they don't necessary need another highly touted d-man as middling stay at home guys are usually fine in terms of supporting a high caliber d-man. We have seen this in Ottawa.

Not saying one is wrong or right. Personally, I'd load up on forwards with the first 2 picks but if Drysdale is available at 5, I wouldn't be flip the table if he was picked. There could be decent talent available with the Isles pick which still needs to be considered.

Well, even though 2 of those players haven't played in the NHL yet, that kind of shows that the Oilers have learned their lesson. I'm talking about the 6-year stretch prior to drafting Nurse, where the team went out of their way to pick nothing but forwards with their first pick of the draft.

2007 Gagner - McDonagh, Shattenkirk
2008 Eberle - Carlson
2009 Paajarvi - Ellis, Kulikov
2010 Hall - No Dispute
2011 Nugent-Hopkins - Larsson, Hamilton
2012 Yakupov - Murray, Rielly

Now, I don't really dispute Hall because he was identified as an objectively high-end #1 pick at the time (like Kane, Stamkos, Tavares, etc.), but the same can't be said of picks like Nugent-Hopkins and Yakupov, which were known to be weaker draft years. In fact, when the Leafs drafted Rielly in 2012, they went out of their way to say they had him ranked #1, which is entirely possible given the relative weakness of the top-4 of that draft class. The Oilers could have traded down, or just traded the pick outright, but instead just kept piling on to a position where they really didn't need additional talent.

Regardless, I just stand by my point that a small-market team would be wise to consider positional need, and not just be a slave to BPA - especially where there are marginal differences in perceived value. And right now, I don't see any huge BPA gap between the likes of Rossi, Drysdale, Perfetti, Raymond, and Holtz. So I'd hope that the team takes advantage of a chance to fill in a serious hole in their roster, instead of just further piling on to a roster position where they already have quality and depth.
- khawk

I’ll just make it clear, that I am not an Oilers fan. Let me try and hit on your points.
We’ll start with your 6yr stretch prior to Nurse being drafted:

2007: McDonagh went 12th and Kirk went 14th..gives you an indication that 11-13 teams thought there were better players ahead of them (keep in mind that around this time, oilers needed everything). Gagner obviously benefited from Kane..which probably clouded the judgement of this pick (but at the time he was 5th in OHL scoring behind Kane, Tavares).

08: Eberle was a great pick. Carlson went 27th..meaning 26 other teams passed on him. Obviously right now Carlson has become an elite top 2d man. But you must’ve forgotten how good Eberle was for the worlds and the Oilers..especially early on.

09: weak draft outside the top 7... you’re right they could’ve taken Ellis..but they could’ve also taken Cowen? :p

11: Agree to disagree here:RNH was the best player in this draft at the time (and he’s starting to come alive). Oilers also drafted Klefbom in this draft.

12: I think we forget how good Yakupov was. He had better numbers then Stamkos. He almost put up 50g in one season for Sarnia.

Expecting the Oilers to trade their 1st overall pick is unrealistic..teams don’t do it. You don’t pass up the opportunity to draft the best player. We could debate now who the best players of those draft classes are, but back then, it was clear.


As I’ve said for the Sens, it wouldn’t bother me who they select with the 5th. And the players you just mentioned are all worthy. It’s just Drysdale has the edge, simply because of his position. And because there aren’t many Blue chip dmen in this draft..he becomes the gem of the class, in a way.

In a way, I think it’d be kinda cool for the Sens to have the best of everything in the 1st round.

- Byfield or Stutzle (best center or 2nd best winger/center and best European prospect)

- best dman prospect In Drysdale (with 5th)

- best goalie prospect in Askarov (islanders pick)

But I’m up for anything...pretty much know every player in the 1st round

Teams simply put more value in d men because it’s a much harder position to play..and when you’ve got Drysdale there on the board, it might be hard to pass up on a guy who’s getting comparisons to Makar. And we’ve seen the impact Makar has had this season.
- Trilla

They do? Then why weren't Makar or Heiskonen taken 1st or 2nd overall, instead of Hischier or Patrick? Why did Hughes, Boqvist, Dobson, and Bouchard all get drafted after the likes of Kotkaniemi, Zadina, and Hayton? How on Earth was Chabot on the board at #18, well after the likes of Crouse, Gurianov, DeBrusk, and Senyshyn were picked? Not to mention that a lot of people have crapped all over Dorion for picking Thomson last year ahead of forwards like McMichael, Poulin, Suzuki, and Kaliyev. If there's an innate bias towards d-men, I sure don't see it in the drafting behaviour. Also, there are just 3 d-men in the top-30 salaries in the NHL... which is the same as the number of goalies (i.e. 24/30 are C/W). So the dollars don't exactly bear that argument out either.

Don't get me wrong, I was very much on-board with picks like Thomson and Bernard-Docker as soon as they were made - because the team's blue line situation at the time really was questionable. But I disagree that any one position is innately more valuable than another, or that teams are in any way better off for having too much depth at any one position. In fact, I would suggest that having all of Chabot, Drysdale, and Brannstrom on the same team would inevitably stunt at least one of those players' development. Championship teams need high-end talent at a number of different positions, which is exactly why they really need to think twice about passing up on so many high-potential forwards.

Expecting the Oilers to trade their 1st overall pick is unrealistic..teams don’t do it. You don’t pass up the opportunity to draft the best player. We could debate now who the best players of those draft classes are, but back then, it was clear.
- Trilla

I simply don't agree that things are as clear-cut as you make them out to be... and whatever pressure there might be to hold onto the #1 pick and go with the consensus draft darling is irrelevant where you're picking at #3/5. More importantly, I would really like the Senators to be smarter than just following the same dumb-$hit behavior that has failed so many teams in the past. Don't worry about the TSN draft list that averages out the opinions of 31 teams who are in vastly different levels of roster quality and development... just go for the player your scouting team thinks will actually make your team better. And right now I would be highly surprised if another offensive-minded d-man is what the Senators' think-tank believes is missing from the prospect mix.

Trading Chabot is a terrible idea. Hes the best defensemen weve had since Karlsson, and hes signed to a great contract. This young team is building somthing special you can see it. Not too mention, it sends a bad message to players when you trade a player you just signed long term, unless they ask to be deslt. ie. Hossa

The court of fair trades is in session.

The accused player targeted in the assault on his personal value (M Tkachuk) has requested fair compensation for the personal insult to his honour. All Sens fans named as defendants have pleaded not guilty.

This court finds that, as a first line forward on a playoff bubble NHL Canadian market, the player's perceived value is artificially inflated.

When healthy, Mr. Tkachuk is a 30-35 goal, nearly point-per-game player with positive advanced statistics and one of the most charismatic players in the NHL with capacity to generate significant buzz thorough personal rivalries with players from other teams (Tkachuk v Doughty, Tkachuk v Kassian, Tkachuk v Tkachuk, etc.).

Mr. Tkachuk is also injury prone and subject to an average of 11 missed games per season on average outside of his single fully healthy year. Mr. Tkachuk therefore suffers an absentee rate of 14% per year during those seasons. Overall Mr. Tkachuks playing style and headhunter/hunted nature make him more likely to suffer increasing effects of nagging injuries as he ages. A serious consideration in his estimated future value.

Mr. Tkachuk projects as an elite NHL forward for the next two to three seasons, followed by increasing rates of diminishing returns following the next, higher value contract he will commit to. He is an RFA with two more years of that status after his current contract.

Comparables within the NHL in terms of playing style and relative team worth include TJ Oshie, Max Domi, JT Miller and Brady Tkachuk.

Overall, the court finds that a trade of Mr. Tkachuk merits the equivalent of a prime aged first line forward. Typically in NHL history, these trades are rare and subject to high levels of return. A general survey of NHL trade history, adjusted for relative worth based on algorithms too long and complex to explain in these hallowed court walls, finds that Mr. Tkachuks value would merit an offer in the range of two first round selections, a middle 6 forward and B-range prospect.

Based on available assets, the following value would be seen as fair trade by this court:
#13-31 overall draft pick/NYI selection, #33 overall pick (OTT 2nd rounder), Conner Brown, Max Lajoie

The court of Fair Trade finds Sens fans partly guilty of the alleged offense for their display of internal bias, and not criminally responsible for the creation of 4 pages long threads of asinine commentary, an overall damage to the mental health and rationality of the general public.

This ruling is subject to all appeals based on results of the comments to follow...

All haileth fair trade, hear ye, hear ye, court is now out of session...

Duh duh duuuuuuuh....

Sorry everyone, I am really baked right now... lol

They do? Then why weren't Makar or Heiskonen taken 1st or 2nd overall, instead of Hischier or Patrick? Why did Hughes, Boqvist, Dobson, and Bouchard all get drafted after the likes of Kotkaniemi, Zadina, and Hayton? How on Earth was Chabot on the board at #18, well after the likes of Crouse, Gurianov, DeBrusk, and Senyshyn were picked? Not to mention that a lot of people have crapped all over Dorion for picking Thomson last year ahead of forwards like McMichael, Poulin, Suzuki, and Kaliyev. If there's an innate bias towards d-men, I sure don't see it in the drafting behaviour. Also, there are just 3 d-men in the top-30 salaries in the NHL... which is the same as the number of goalies (i.e. 24/30 are C/W). So the dollars don't exactly bear that argument out either.

Don't get me wrong, I was very much on-board with picks like Thomson and Bernard-Docker as soon as they were made - because the team's blue line situation at the time really was questionable. But I disagree that any one position is innately more valuable than another, or that teams are in any way better off for having too much depth at any one position. In fact, I would suggest that having all of Chabot, Drysdale, and Brannstrom on the same team would inevitably stunt at least one of those players' development. Championship teams need high-end talent at a number of different positions, which is exactly why they really need to think twice about passing up on so many high-potential forwards.
- khawk

Lol I mean Makar and Heiskanen went right after at 3 and 4...and Nico’s world juniors pretty much put him on top of the class. Lol I mean if we redo the draft right now, they’d be at 2 and 3 (Pettersson going 1st).

There’s something to be said about the development process of a dman. Forwards could sometimes make immediate impact on a roster, whereas dmen take much longer to develop. So it’s a longer investment when drafting a dman.

You brought up dmen like Hughes.. Those guys were selected in the top 10. 4d went in the first 10 (that includes Dahlin) so I’m not sure what you’re point is.

If I’m not mistaken about Chabot..he was ranked between 15-26..so not surprised a team didn’t select him earlier. 3 dmen ended up going in the top 10 of that draft.

Again, there are more players like Marner then players like Doughty. Teams will covet a player like doughty more because it’s a harder position to play, logs more minutes, can play in every scenario. You get what I’m saying?

Yes, it’s good to have depth at every position...but if I’m being frank. The position you want to have the MOST depth in, is defense.

Yes, it’s also possible having too much depth in one position could hamper development, but that applies to any position. There’s also the opportunity that it elevates everyone’s game as well, no?

Btw, which forward do you want them to select at 5?

I simply don't agree that things are as clear-cut as you make them out to be... and whatever pressure there might be to hold onto the #1 pick and go with the consensus draft darling is irrelevant where you're picking at #3/5. More importantly, I would really like the Senators to be smarter than just following the same dumb-$hit behavior that has failed so many teams in the past. Don't worry about the TSN draft list that averages out the opinions of 31 teams who are in vastly different levels of roster quality and development... just go for the player your scouting team thinks will actually make your team better. And right now I would be highly surprised if another offensive-minded d-man is what the Senators' think-tank believes is missing from the prospect mix.
- khawk

I agree.

Maybe they think Drysdale makes the team better down the road. Or one of the forwards.

Again, I’ll be good if they draft two forwards.

We just need to remember that the Sens will be able to add players via trades and signings as well. So having the best prospects in your pool, will allow you to acquire that talent.

The court of fair trades is in session.

The accused player targeted in the assault on his personal value (M Tkachuk) has requested fair compensation for the personal insult to his honour. All Sens fans named as defendants have pleaded not guilty.

This court finds that, as a first line forward on a playoff bubble NHL Canadian market, the player's perceived value is artificially inflated.

When healthy, Mr. Tkachuk is a 30-35 goal, nearly point-per-game player with positive advanced statistics and one of the most charismatic players in the NHL with capacity to generate significant buzz thorough personal rivalries with players from other teams (Tkachuk v Doughty, Tkachuk v Kassian, Tkachuk v Tkachuk, etc.).

Mr. Tkachuk is also injury prone and subject to an average of 11 missed games per season on average outside of his single fully healthy year. Mr. Tkachuk therefore suffers an absentee rate of 14% per year during those seasons. Overall Mr. Tkachuks playing style and headhunter/hunted nature make him more likely to suffer increasing effects of nagging injuries as he ages. A serious consideration in his estimated future value.

Mr. Tkachuk projects as an elite NHL forward for the next two to three seasons, followed by increasing rates of diminishing returns following the next, higher value contract he will commit to. He is an RFA with two more years of that status after his current contract.

Comparables within the NHL in terms of playing style and relative team worth include TJ Oshie, Max Domi, JT Miller and Brady Tkachuk.

Overall, the court finds that a trade of Mr. Tkachuk merits the equivalent of a prime aged first line forward. Typically in NHL history, these trades are rare and subject to high levels of return. A general survey of NHL trade history, adjusted for relative worth based on algorithms too long and complex to explain in these hallowed court walls, finds that Mr. Tkachuks value would merit an offer in the range of two first round selections, a middle 6 forward and B-range prospect.

Based on available assets, the following value would be seen as fair trade by this court:
#13-31 overall draft pick/NYI selection, #33 overall pick (OTT 2nd rounder), Conner Brown, Max Lajoie

The court of Fair Trade finds Sens fans partly guilty of the alleged offense for their display of internal bias, and not criminally responsible for the creation of 4 pages long threads of asinine commentary, an overall damage to the mental health and rationality of the general public.

This ruling is subject to all appeals based on results of the comments to follow...

All haileth fair trade, hear ye, hear ye, court is now out of session...

Duh duh duuuuuuuh....

Sorry everyone, I am really baked right now... lol
- ahjnkn

Hahahhahahaha wow well written.!!!

NCAA schools have begun to cancel sports schedules. Big 10 has decided against playing any non conference games this fall. Almost certain that Bernard-Docker and Pinto are coming out and will be part of the Sens development roster.

I think the Sens are a lottery team again next year. This coming year will be a very young fun team

NCAA schools have begun to cancel sports schedules. Big 10 has decided against playing any non conference games this fall. Almost certain that Bernard-Docker and Pinto are coming out and will be part of the Sens development roster.

I think the Sens are a lottery team again next year. This coming year will be a very young fun team
- spatso

Smith will have to make a lot of changes to his coaching style if the team is going to be as young as it looks.

Smith will have to make a lot of changes to his coaching style if the team is going to be as young as it looks.
- granpa

There won't be much pressure to win. They are going to be hard pressed to find playing situations for all their prospects.

If there is no NCAA or junior, perhaps some of the kids head for Europe.

There won't be much pressure to win. They are going to be hard pressed to find playing situations for all their prospects.

If there is no NCAA or junior, perhaps some of the kids head for Europe.
- spatso

European teams would probably welcome most of the better prospects especially if the NHL teams honour their EL contracts. Probably no callups during EU team season. Or the NHL teams will carry more than 23 players and hopefully find playing time for everybody. Or the NHL teams will absorb all costs for their minor pro teams (empty rinks). They could put in place a new constitution, reduce travel, less games, etc. Or they could draft less players but the late bloomers would fall through the cracks (ex: Stone). Lots to think about if you're serious about player development.

You brought up dmen like Hughes.. Those guys were selected in the top 10. 4d went in the first 10 (that includes Dahlin) so I’m not sure what you’re point is.

- Trilla

My point is that you made a blanket statement about NHL teams valuing d-men more than other positions, yet there's absolutely no evidence to support it beyond just repeating your opinion. D-men are very rarely taken 1st overall in the draft (just 3 in the last 20 years, and those were all consensus weak drafts), D-men are underrepresented among the top-30 salaries in the league, and D-men are rarely even considered their team's best player. So while I agree that having a good blue line is important, I put no credibility at all in the claim that D-men have any kind of disproportionate value - especially for a team already boasting such a deep collection of D-men prospects.

In any case, I think we're both in agreement that the team is fortunate to have such high picks in a strong draft class. Hopefully they can pull a pair of cornerstone players to help push the rebuild into the next phase. And if Dorion's team really feels that Drysdale is the best option, then so be it - but I personally think they would be better off taking advantage of the opportunity to put together what could be a Championship-quality #1 scoring line.

European teams would probably welcome most of the better prospects especially if the NHL teams honour their EL contracts. Probably no callups during EU team season. Or the NHL teams will carry more than 23 players and hopefully find playing time for everybody. Or the NHL teams will absorb all costs for their minor pro teams (empty rinks). They could put in place a new constitution, reduce travel, less games, etc. Or they could draft less players but the late bloomers would fall through the cracks (ex: Stone). Lots to think about if you're serious about player development.
- granpa

I think you will see combinations from what you described. My guess is the veterans in the +30 age range and the marginal players in the +23 range will get pushed out fairly quickly. Teams will carry 4th lines comprised of rookies and each team will be able to use emergency procedures to maintain a larger practice roster through the season.

Nor good year to be an RFA or UFA unless your near the top of the list.

Perhaps a lot more impact on a team like Ottawa with so many draft picks to place.

I think you will see combinations from what you described. My guess is the veterans in the +30 age range and the marginal players in the +23 range will get pushed out fairly quickly. Teams will carry 4th lines comprised of rookies and each team will be able to use emergency procedures to maintain a larger practice roster through the season.

Nor good year to be an RFA or UFA unless your near the top of the list.

Perhaps a lot more impact on a team like Ottawa with so many draft picks to place.
- spatso

I think there will be Junior hockey at a lower tier than Major Junior because Covid will not change anything on the financial side. Tier 2 Junior A, Junior B etc. usually play in practically empty rinks. The cost of operating is not very high and is usually absorbed by each player (ex: each player is expected to raise certain amount) or advertising, sponsors, etc. The games are local or short drive (no hotels), players are mostly local so no room and board etc. The NHL teams can assign their junior aged players to Tier 2 Junior A or Pro league depending on where they are in their development (no CHL no agreement to return picks). The over aged players can play on NHL teams or Pro league in EU or N. America. A lot of career minor leaguers will be out of work.

The Sens don’t need to throw away a lot of young talent and draft picks
for a high salaried player like M Tkachuk. We are in a rebuild and need the cap flexibility down the road. Dorian screwed up badly on the White contract which he will be stuck with for 5-6 years. Besides there is zero chance Calgary would trade Tkachuk anyway.

To the issue of the day Brady Tkachuk must be resigned, 7 million for 7 years sounds right. He wouldn’t get more from any other team with almost all of them all being in cap hell for the next 2 years. The Sens should be focusing on fleecing teams when they are forced to unload good players for peanuts.
- Barrykerr1

Initially I disagreed hard on the Colin White statement "screwed up badly" and that we'll be stuck with that contract.

Yes I agree a bridge deal would look better right now - but I have faith he will have a strong year coming up. One thing I will say - I was going to say that we are only 1 year into the deal. White had a sophomore slump, which is very common. It's also his 1st year of the contract and a year where he had a much heavier load. But then these numbers come into play:

2018 - 2019

16:12 - average ice time per game
02:07 - average ice time per game on PP
00:13 - average ice time per game on PK

2019 - 2020

15:42 - average ice time per game
02:10 - average ice time per game on PP
00:02 - average ice time per game on PK

The numbers show me that the coach trusted him much less. I'm also surprised with how little time he gets on the PK if he's supposed to be "two-way" center. That is not something I like. Again, I expect him to have a much better year this year but his defensive play, strength, and PK time have to be better next season

NCAA schools have begun to cancel sports schedules. Big 10 has decided against playing any non conference games this fall. Almost certain that Bernard-Docker and Pinto are coming out and will be part of the Sens development roster.

I think the Sens are a lottery team again next year. This coming year will be a very young fun team
- spatso

Man I hope that NYI pick is high (not #1 obv). If Sens can get Rossi at 5 then select Quinn or another goal scorer at that position, the Sens would have 3 solid prospects. I don't remember a team hitting on 3 solid picks in round 1

Man I hope that NYI pick is high (not #1 obv). If Sens can get Rossi at 5 then select Quinn or another goal scorer at that position, the Sens would have 3 solid prospects. I don't remember a team hitting on 3 solid picks in round 1
- AlfieisKing

Lots of talk that we gonna trade the Isles pick. Why not offer a package for Boeser and Demko

Lots of talk that we gonna trade the Isles pick. Why not offer a package for Boeser and Demko
- Crosside

Very interesting opportunity with the Canucks... take back Eriksson, include the Islanders' 1st, one of the better goaltender prospects, and maybe one of Brown/Duclair to replace the RW, and there could be a potential deal there.