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Forums :: Blog World :: Michael Stuart: Mike's Mailbag: Part II
Author Message
spazzbot
Location: Maple Zombie
Joined: 02.14.2013

Aug 4 @ 12:32 PM ET
I know it's fashionable to bash the organization, but I'm getting fed up with people who can't seem to process that Stone didn't want to stay in Ottawa. It wasn't the organization's decision, it was a player who wanted to play on a competitive team during his prime years. Now you could argue that the organization made that decision a lot easier for Stone by trading Karlsson, Duchene, Hoffman, Brassard, and Dzingel... but then you're really just trying to argue against the rebuild, which is another matter entirely. Say what you want, I guess, but at the end of the day there's absolutely no evidence that Dorion could have somehow made Stone sign a 7-year deal in the midst of a full teardown/rebuild by just paying him a bit more money.
- khawk


Fashions come and go. Stone will be a good player for many years. I would say he would have helped and sped up the rebuild. Why it did not happen, none of us know. It would be speculation by me and you.
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Aug 4 @ 1:52 PM ET
I know it's fashionable to bash the organization, but I'm getting fed up with people who can't seem to process that Stone didn't want to stay in Ottawa. It wasn't the organization's decision, it was a player who wanted to play on a competitive team during his prime years. Now you could argue that the organization made that decision a lot easier for Stone by trading Karlsson, Duchene, Hoffman, Brassard, and Dzingel... but then you're really just trying to argue against the rebuild, which is another matter entirely. Say what you want, I guess, but at the end of the day there's absolutely no evidence that Dorion could have somehow made Stone sign a 7-year deal in the midst of a full teardown/rebuild by just paying him a bit more money.
- khawk

The bolded is what frustrated me. Don't think I have ever seen an organization clean house of so many guys in their prime.

The organization has always had trouble retaining talent. Maybe it's a good problem to have as you'll avoid bad retirement contracts ie Karlsson but then you give out other contracts that may overcompensate, ie Colin White, Ryan, etc.

I think the biggest thing with Stone is that he could basically have a whole new career with Vegas like Chara when he went to Boston. Losing guys and just watch them fade into the sunset is one thing, losing guys and watching them win and reach another level of their career is another thing.

Rebuild is going fine so far. Big test in October at the draft and we likely won't see the results of that truly until 2-3 years down the road. Going to be a long road.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Aug 4 @ 2:29 PM ET
Do we still want to trade up If the isles pick is 18 to 20+?
Rpm1971
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 01.08.2019

Aug 4 @ 3:01 PM ET
Thomas Chabot - Travis Hamonic
Joel Edmundson - Jamie Drysdale
Erik Brannstrom - Jacob Bernard Docker/Artem Zub

trade Zaitsev

- AlfieisKing


The only time this is happening is when you’re sleeping
They have Chabot Zaitsev Reilly Wolanin
And they will bring up Zub and Brannstrom
Would be nice to see Reilly traded tho
Chabot Drysdale
Brannstrom Zub
Wolanin Zaitsev
Jaros
This could be our defence coming
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Aug 4 @ 3:14 PM ET
The bolded is what frustrated me. Don't think I have ever seen an organization clean house of so many guys in their prime.
I think the biggest thing with Stone is that he could basically have a whole new career with Vegas like Chara when he went to Boston. Losing guys and just watch them fade into the sunset is one thing, losing guys and watching them win and reach another level of their career is another thing.

- Gord_Wilson_2.0

I'd actually go even further, and suggest that the magnitude of the Senators' tear-down over the past 2 seasons is without NHL precedent. However, this is why I get frustrated when I see people fixating on Stone as some kind of one-off "mistake", where they were supposed to magically retain him in the midst of that chaos. I don't blame Stone for leaving, but let's at least face the reality that it was very much his decision to do so.

As for whether Stone is likely to have a Chara-like career post-Senators, I think that's pretty unlikely, as is the case for both Karlsson and Duchene. Vegas may well win a Stanley Cup, but Chara is quite literally a physical freak who's played for over a decade post-trade, and should never have been allowed to walk as a UFA. The damage of that situation was only further compounded by the horror-show outcome of signing Redden instead, and the fact that it was a Cup-quality roster that was slowly missing its competitive window. Stone was at least traded for Brannstrom and what could be a promising asset in the 2nd round of a strong draft, at a time where (right or wrong) the team was in full deconstruction mode.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Aug 4 @ 3:15 PM ET
Do we still want to trade up If the isles pick is 18 to 20+?
- david22

Absolutely, if there's a realistic opportunity to do so. Given the number of prospects they already have in the system, quality is far more valuable than quantity at this point.


Barrykerr1
Joined: 08.06.2014

Aug 4 @ 7:59 PM ET
Absolutely, if there's a realistic opportunity to do so. Given the number of prospects they already have in the system, quality is far more valuable than quantity at this point.
- khawk


There is no question Dorian will trade some of his many draft picks to move up in the draft. It’s better to have quality over quantity, there is no room in the organization for the Senators to use every pick. It looks like the Islanders will beat the Panthers so their pick will be lower than anticipated assuming they don’t win the lottery.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Aug 4 @ 8:33 PM ET
There is no question Dorian will trade some of his many draft picks to move up in the draft. It’s better to have quality over quantity, there is no room in the organization for the Senators to use every pick. It looks like the Islanders will beat the Panthers so their pick will be lower than anticipated assuming they don’t win the lottery.
- Barrykerr1

I'm also quite positive we'll see Dorion trade up at some point.

Whether that means he trades up at in the second round or late first, or does a big move with the Isles pick remains to be seen though.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Aug 5 @ 1:34 AM ET
The only time this is happening is when you’re sleeping
They have Chabot Zaitsev Reilly Wolanin
And they will bring up Zub and Brannstrom
Would be nice to see Reilly traded tho
Chabot Drysdale
Brannstrom Zub
Wolanin Zaitsev
Jaros
This could be our defence coming

- Rpm1971

Obviously this is a hypothetical - that's what we do.

If Melnyk and Sens wanted to do this (and the players' wanted to come) I could see this happening. That said, Zub and Zaitsev are already here. I don't like Zaitsev long term at all. It's going to prevent the Sens from going out and getting a better D-man

Also, if we draft Drysdale, how does our offence look in 2 years? Logan Brown, Josh Norris, Colin White -- is that good enough down the middle to lift the cup in the near future??
I'm not sold
Njuice
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: ON
Joined: 06.21.2013

Aug 5 @ 9:06 AM ET
none of the placeholder teams had a better chance of winning the draft lottery than the non playoff teams
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Aug 5 @ 11:53 AM ET
Also, if we draft Drysdale, how does our offence look in 2 years? Logan Brown, Josh Norris, Colin White -- is that good enough down the middle to lift the cup in the near future??
I'm not sold

- AlfieisKing

I've chimed in on the C situation on the team and its relative importance for a while now... at the end of the day, it would be a serious mistake for them not to take advantage of the opportunity in this year's draft to add some real quality down the middle. If they should wind up with something like Stutzle/Drysdale with the 3/5 picks, well that's certainly an impressive pair and it's hard to say those aren't potentially great players. However, I would be really expecting Dorion at that point to be aggressively trading up from the NYI pick to snag one of the second-tier C like Lapierre... which is a distinct possibility, given his Gatineau roots. If they're forced to use the NYI pick, then someone like Brisson could work... with Shattuck St. Mary's pedigree, and a commitment to the University of Michigan. But if the only attempt to draft a C winds up coming at pick #33 from the table scraps of the first round or even later than that, I think they will have made a critical error.
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Aug 5 @ 12:16 PM ET
I've chimed in on the C situation on the team and its relative importance for a while now... at the end of the day, it would be a serious mistake for them not to take advantage of the opportunity in this year's draft to add some real quality down the middle. If they should wind up with something like Stutzle/Drysdale with the 3/5 picks, well that's certainly an impressive pair and it's hard to say those aren't potentially great players. However, I would be really expecting Dorion at that point to be aggressively trading up from the NYI pick to snag one of the second-tier C like Lapierre... which is a distinct possibility, given his Gatineau roots. If they're forced to use the NYI pick, then someone like Brisson could work... with Shattuck St. Mary's pedigree, and a commitment to the University of Michigan. But if the only attempt to draft a C winds up coming at pick #33 from the table scraps of the first round or even later than that, I think they will have made a critical error in the rebuild.
- khawk

I think we have gone back and forth on this. While the centre position is critical, the Sens plans are influence by what happens before their 3 and 5 picks.

Outside of Byfield, Rossi is the only "natural" centre. While Perfetti plays centre, he also plays wing, which is the same situation as Stutzle, so I assume he is not an option to fill that role with your views. Rossi is a very talented prospect, but he's in the same 3rd tier group as about 5 or so other players. It's really about picking the player that will best develop. If you pass on Rossi and he becomes a legit star, that will hurt. But picking Rossi, having him bust, and watching a winger or d-man have a stellar career will also hurt. it's a crapshoot really.

I think it's naïve for us to sit here and say selecting a centre over a d-man or winger will get us further ahead. It may, but it may not. I'm not against your view on centres, I am just not sure the hard stance on it considering the boom/bust chance of prospects after the top pick, even after the top 3.

It will be an interesting draft. While the 3rd pick will likely be Byfield or Stutzle, the 5th pick will be interesting to see.
PavohnDatsvares
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.03.2016

Aug 5 @ 12:55 PM ET
I think we have gone back and forth on this. While the centre position is critical, the Sens plans are influence by what happens before their 3 and 5 picks.

Outside of Byfield, Rossi is the only "natural" centre. While Perfetti plays centre, he also plays wing, which is the same situation as Stutzle, so I assume he is not an option to fill that role with your views. Rossi is a very talented prospect, but he's in the same 3rd tier group as about 5 or so other players. It's really about picking the player that will best develop. If you pass on Rossi and he becomes a legit star, that will hurt. But picking Rossi, having him bust, and watching a winger or d-man have a stellar career will also hurt. it's a crapshoot really.

I think it's naïve for us to sit here and say selecting a centre over a d-man or winger will get us further ahead. It may, but it may not. I'm not against your view on centres, I am just not sure the hard stance on it considering the boom/bust chance of prospects after the top pick, even after the top 3.

It will be an interesting draft. While the 3rd pick will likely be Byfield or Stutzle, the 5th pick will be interesting to see.

- Gord_Wilson_2.0


Some great points. I am among the people who are pro-center. But definitely some great points.

And that is what's so fun about this 2020 draft. At 5th we could pick:
Drysdale
Rossi
Perfetti
Raymond
Holtz
Sanderson

And all of those players would be good picks at #5.

(Insert someone's reply of Holtz not being good enough to go at #5)
PavohnDatsvares
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.03.2016

Aug 5 @ 12:57 PM ET
Big question that should have been submitted to the mailbag... How bad would we freak out if Dorion took Askarov at #5.

I know there's a 0.00001% chance this happens. But just think about how bad we would freak out if this happened.
Crosside
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 08.14.2019

Aug 5 @ 1:06 PM ET
Big question that should have been submitted to the mailbag... How bad would we freak out if Dorion took Askarov at #5.

I know there's a 0.00001% chance this happens. But just think about how bad we would freak out if this happened.

- PavohnDatsvares

I would be very happy. Every year when I watch playoff, I remark the important to have a good goalie. Thing we never have in this franchise. Having a generationnel goalie in our prospect pool would be amazing
granpa
Joined: 07.03.2015

Aug 5 @ 2:25 PM ET
Canes are impressive. Team play, structure, discipline and attention to detail is really noticeable. Because of that, everybody plays (just check last game ice time). Brindamour is an excellent coach. That's the kind of program I was hoping to see in Ottawa but that's wishful thinking. We're going with the work hard program.
Gord_Wilson_2.0
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 10.11.2011

Aug 5 @ 2:53 PM ET
Some great points. I am among the people who are pro-center. But definitely some great points.

And that is what's so fun about this 2020 draft. At 5th we could pick:
Drysdale
Rossi
Perfetti
Raymond
Holtz
Sanderson

And all of those players would be good picks at #5.

(Insert someone's reply of Holtz not being good enough to go at #5)

- PavohnDatsvares

Those prospects are all so close right now, I don't see one guy (example Rossi) making our team so much better than taking another guy right now. If they all pan out to the level they are projected to be, sure Rossi might be the best pick due to being a natural centre, but that usually doesn't happen in drafts. In my opinion, need to pick the best player to develop to the highest level. If that is Rossi after taking Stuztle (assuming LA takes Byfield), great. But I will not be disappointed if a Stuztle/Drysdale combo, or something similar without a centre, is taken.

Don't forget this team is likely going to be hot garbage next year as well and another important draft will be had. Not every roster hole (which there are many) needs to be filled in with this draft alone.
Rpm1971
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 01.08.2019

Aug 5 @ 3:47 PM ET
Some great points. I am among the people who are pro-center. But definitely some great points.

And that is what's so fun about this 2020 draft. At 5th we could pick:
Drysdale
Rossi
Perfetti
Raymond
Holtz
Sanderson

And all of those players would be good picks at #5.

(Insert someone's reply of Holtz not being good enough to go at #5)

- PavohnDatsvares


I would definitely take Holtz over Raymond
Byfield Holtz and someone like Guhle who can play a rough game 👍
PavohnDatsvares
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.03.2016

Aug 5 @ 4:59 PM ET
I would definitely take Holtz over Raymond
Byfield Holtz and someone like Guhle who can play a rough game 👍

- Rpm1971


As you and I discussed on the previous blog:
Tkachuk Byfied Holtz would be a mouth-watering line.

On the other side of the coin, Stützle and Raymond are probably the most dynamic options, as those two are perhaps the two most "fun to watch" of the available prospects. But at the same time, I have this weird gut feeling that Raymond is the most likely to be a bust out of those top 5 forwards. There's something about him that makes me wonder if he's all flash with little finish. His point totals, or lack there of, were certainly nothing to write home about. He could be like Grabner or Boedker - players that are very fast, but just never developed that finish that was expected of them when they were draft. Two decent players in their prime, but obviously never achieved star status.

So this puts an idea in my mind... Does getting Byfield or Stützle with that 3rd pick influence the STYLE of player we might want at 5th?

This is a hypothetical, so don't just say, "Take the best player available." Opting for a D at 5 obviously eliminates this idea. But think of it in terms of team chemistry. Stützle and Raymond are similar in style and would likely find chemistry and success on a line together. If LA selects Stützle, and we take Byfield, does Raymond become less inciting because it's not as good of a duo (as a package).

Just something fun to think about. The draft is still ages away.
PavohnDatsvares
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 05.03.2016

Aug 5 @ 5:26 PM ET
Canes are impressive. Team play, structure, discipline and attention to detail is really noticeable. Because of that, everybody plays (just check last game ice time). Brindamour is an excellent coach. That's the kind of program I was hoping to see in Ottawa but that's wishful thinking. We're going with the work hard program.
- granpa


Brind'Amour and Smith coach a very similar, hard work, team game, defense-first style. Your hatred of Smith has you completely blinded. It's honestly comical at this point.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Aug 5 @ 5:55 PM ET
I would be very happy. Every year when I watch playoff, I remark the important to have a good goalie. Thing we never have in this franchise. Having a generationnel goalie in our prospect pool would be amazing
- Crosside

It's important to have a good goaltender... but they really don't have to come from the first round, or be "generational" players. Teams have learned this the hard way over the past 20 years, with a very distinct trend away from picking goaltenders early in the draft. Case in point...

2000-2009: 22 G taken in 1st round; 2 years where no G was taken
2010-2019: 7 G taken in 1st round; 6 years where no G was taken

Stanley Cup Winning Goaltenders (2010-2019)
Murray, Matt (3rd Round Pick, 2012) x2
Crawford, Corey (2nd Round Pick, 2003) x2
Quick, Jonathan (3rd Round Pick, 2005) x2
Binnington, Jordan (3rd Round Pick, 2011)
Holtby, Braden (4th Round Pick, 2008)
Thomas, Tim (9th Round Pick, 1994)
Niemi, Antti (Undrafted)

Vezina Trophy Winners (2010-2019)
Bobrovsky, Sergei (Undrafted) x2
Miller, Ryan (5th Round Pick, 1999)
Thomas, Tim (9th Round Pick, 1994)
Lundqvist, Henrik (7th Round Pick, 2000)
Rask, Tuukka (1st Round Pick, 2005)
Price, Carey (1st Round Pick, 2005)
Holtby, Braden (4th Round Pick, 2008)
Rinne, Pekka (8th Round Pick, 2004)
Vasilevsky, Andrei (1st Round Pick, 2012)

That's 0 Stanley Cups and just 3 Vezina Trophy wins in the past 10 years for goaltenders drafted in the 1st round, with it taking 7-10 years to reach that Vezina level. So being highly touted at the draft isn't exactly overwhelming in terms of correlation with either individual or team success, and the ROI payoff in most cases is highly deferred. I'd agree that Askarov is certainly an intriguing prospect, but they actually have pretty good organizational depth in the likes of Hogberg, Gustavsson, Daccord, and Sogaard. Given that, I'd far rather see them take F/D at 3/5, and then 'maybe' consider trading up to select Askarov if he should fall within range of the NYI pick.
Rpm1971
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 01.08.2019

Aug 5 @ 6:37 PM ET
As you and I discussed on the previous blog:
Tkachuk Byfied Holtz would be a mouth-watering line.

On the other side of the coin, Stützle and Raymond are probably the most dynamic options, as those two are perhaps the two most "fun to watch" of the available prospects. But at the same time, I have this weird gut feeling that Raymond is the most likely to be a bust out of those top 5 forwards. There's something about him that makes me wonder if he's all flash with little finish. His point totals, or lack there of, were certainly nothing to write home about. He could be like Grabner or Boedker - players that are very fast, but just never developed that finish that was expected of them when they were draft. Two decent players in their prime, but obviously never achieved star status.

So this puts an idea in my mind... Does getting Byfield or Stützle with that 3rd pick influence the STYLE of player we might want at 5th?

This is a hypothetical, so don't just say, "Take the best player available." Opting for a D at 5 obviously eliminates this idea. But think of it in terms of team chemistry. Stützle and Raymond are similar in style and would likely find chemistry and success on a line together. If LA selects Stützle, and we take Byfield, does Raymond become less inciting because it's not as good of a duo (as a package).

Just something fun to think about. The draft is still ages away.

- PavohnDatsvares


I think the 2 picks should be a combo of
Byfield Holtz
Stutzle Rossi
Byfield Drysdale
Stutzle Drysdale

This is the combination of 3 and 5 picks I can see 👍
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Aug 5 @ 7:00 PM ET
Hoffman 2 goals, boyle with GWG, panthers still alive (so is another top 15ish pick)
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Aug 5 @ 7:05 PM ET
I was really really high on Lucas Raymond. I think his ceiling is really high and he has a motor only Laf and Stutzle have. That said, I'm not a hockey scout so I don't know what his mindset is and whether he WILL hit his potential.

I would heavily rely on hockey scouts rather than anyone on this website or on the internet. That said, all things equal my picks would be as follows:

(2) Stutzle (3) Byfield (4) Raymond (5) Holtz (6) Drysdale/Rossi
Rpm1971
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 01.08.2019

Aug 5 @ 7:33 PM ET
Hoffman 2 goals, boyle with GWG, panthers still alive (so is another top 15ish pick)
- AlfieisKing


Nice 🤙😁
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