I have seen a lot of reporting how it is unfair the Rangers get the number 1 overall. For an original 6 team is now getting its 2nd first pick in the draft I would think the female doging and complaining can now just STOP!!! Just because the Rangers can buy an expensive player means nothing, many teams offered more money to Panarin but he wanted to play here just like Tavares got offered more money to stay with the Islanders but wanted to go home to Toronto. Its about time the Rangers got a break since they honestly don't get many out of the league or with officiating. If there is no crying in Baseball there should be no crying in Hockey! I for one am happy with getting to see the Rangers get a first pick overall and can't wait for the draft to begin!!!

I have seen a lot of reporting how it is unfair the Rangers get the number 1 overall. For an original 6 team is now getting its 2nd first pick in the draft I would think the female doging and complaining can now just STOP!!! Just because the Rangers can buy an expensive player means nothing, many teams offered more money to Panarin but he wanted to play here just like Tavares got offered more money to stay with the Islanders but wanted to go home to Toronto. Its about time the Rangers got a break since they honestly don't get many out of the league or with officiating. If there is no crying in Baseball there should be no crying in Hockey! I for one am happy with getting to see the Rangers get a first pick overall and can't wait for the draft to begin!!!
- patersonnick46

You're on a Red Wings blog. We don't have to stop anything. Take your selective justification somewhere else if it bothers you so much. Who exactly are you trying to convince? Us or yourself? Take your good fortune and stop whining. If you weren't a Rangers Fan you'd be singing a much different tune. No bias though. Cheer for the laundry.

You're seriously going to complain to Red Wings fans about other team's fans whining about the Rangers being rewarded the 1st overall pick? When last year you were gifted Kakko second overall? That's rich!

Us Red Wings fans have seen our team get screwed royally in the draft lottery for 4 consecutive years. Your team literally gets the pick the Red Wings should rightfully have after being the worst team in the NHL. We're picking 4th for (frank) sakes!

Cry me a (frank)ing river! 🤮

I get where you're coming from but I just feel that taking a goalie that high is almost never worth the risk, especially for a team that has so many holes and no sure bets to build around yet.

Number one, goalies are super hard to project.

Number two, you really need the guy you draft to be a significant difference maker (like a consistent top 5-10 goalie in the world for a decent chunk of time) in order for the investment to pay off substantially over, say, signing a mid-grade starter on the cheap every 2-3 years.

If you draft a forward at No. 4 and he turns out to be just an average NHLer, that’s disappointing but at least it means that’s one fewer Adam Erne or Justin Abdelkader you need to have in the lineup, and you still have an intriguing young asset that you might be able to turn into something better later. Whereas if you draft a goalie and he turns out to be just average, you gain basically nothing. Trade value is zilch, and on-ice value you might as well have just signed any of the half-dozen league-average replacement journeyman that are available every year and been almost no worse for it.

In other words? The way I see it anyway, a goalie taken at No. 4 is not only less likely to become an elite player than a skater taken there, but non-elite goalies are also less valuable than non-elite skaters. It's lose-lose.

Obviously I’ll be eating my words if Askarov lives up to the hype and has an all-star career, but purely based on the probabilities I think it’s smarter to take one of the forwards who will still be available at 4 (fingers crossed for Rossi) and then look at taking a goalie in the second or third round, and maybe one more in the round 5-7 range.
- Sven22

Solid analysis, as usual, Sven. There are SO many holes in our line-up....there are VERY few players in this draft that can project directly to the NHL, so anyone we choose may well spend 1-2yrs in the minors. I'd be ok trading #4 to drop down for another 1st & high 2d, or a ready-now YOUNG D...Drop down to the back-end to draft Askarov so we don't take it in the shorts as badly.

That being said; Drysedale is a stud, Stutzle is a stud, would hate to lose out on either of those 2 players; they're 1yr MAX from being an NHLer, losing them would be just as painful as dropping to 4th this year (we got DORKED on that deal). There are some great assets that will pop up with the expansion draft, great deals to be made again, lots of back-room deals made to take/protect players that would cost a strong prospect, flat-cap cuts....So many variables this year....

I have seen a lot of reporting how it is unfair the Rangers get the number 1 overall. For an original 6 team is now getting its 2nd first pick in the draft I would think the female doging and complaining can now just STOP!!! Just because the Rangers can buy an expensive player means nothing, many teams offered more money to Panarin but he wanted to play here just like Tavares got offered more money to stay with the Islanders but wanted to go home to Toronto. Its about time the Rangers got a break since they honestly don't get many out of the league or with officiating. If there is no crying in Baseball there should be no crying in Hockey! I for one am happy with getting to see the Rangers get a first pick overall and can't wait for the draft to begin!!!
- patersonnick46

Methinks thou dost protest too much We had a 25yr run and things have dropped off. Yes, we'll complain somewhat, EVERYONE (including you, above) complains a bit. Soooooo...pot, meet kettle. Bugger off, enjoy the Wing's rightful 1st, and enjoy life....DET will be ok, will take some time, will be some pain, but we'll be just fine.

You're on a Red Wings blog. We don't have to stop anything. Take your selective justification somewhere else if it bothers you so much. Who exactly are you trying to convince? Us or yourself? Take your good fortune and stop whining. If you weren't a Rangers Fan you'd be singing a much different tune. No bias though. Cheer for the laundry.

You're seriously going to complain to Red Wings fans about other team's fans whining about the Rangers being rewarded the 1st overall pick? When last year you were gifted Kakko second overall? That's rich!

Us Red Wings fans have seen our team get screwed royally in the draft lottery for 4 consecutive years. Your team literally gets the pick the Red Wings should rightfully have after being the worst team in the NHL. We're picking 4th for (frank) sakes!

Cry me a (frank)ing river! 🤮
- gergeswillems

Nobody feels bad for the wings. You made the PO for 20 straight years and had generational talent across the board. Hockey like life is cyclical. You will be just fine

Nobody feels bad for the wings. You made the PO for 20 straight years and had generational talent across the board. Hockey like life is cyclical. You will be just fine
- nyrangers2

25. No one feels bad for the Rangers being gifted Kakko and Lafreniere either.

25. No one feels bad for the Rangers being gifted Kakko and Lafreniere either.
- gergeswillems

Yup and I dont feel bad we were gifted them either. We finally got a break the last 2 years. I'll take it just like the wings, pens, hawks, kings in in the past caught their breaks

Yup and I dont feel bad we were gifted them either. We finally got a break the last 2 years. I'll take it just like the wings, pens, hawks, kings in in the past caught their breaks
- nyrangers2

You shouldn't feel bad you got 2 breaks. I wouldn't. But I wouldn't be on the Rangers board complaining about other teams fans complaining about my team being gifted 2 future franchise players.

Take the wins and enjoy them. And I won't feel bad about complaining about the Red Wings being royally (frank)ed at the NHL draft lottery for 4 consecutive years! On a Red Wings blog no less.

When exactly did the Red Wings get their "break" at the draft lottery? I'm curious...

You shouldn't feel bad you got 2 breaks. I wouldn't. But I wouldn't be on the Rangers board complaining about other teams fans complaining about my team being gifted 2 future franchise players.

Take the wins and enjoy them. And I won't feel bad about complaining about the Red Wings being royally (frank)ed at the NHL draft lottery for 4 consecutive years! On a Red Wings blog no less.

When exactly did the Red Wings get their "break" at the draft lottery? I'm curious...
- gergeswillems

The wings for (frank)ed this year. They never got breaks, they are just a well run org. Rangers on the other hand were run like poop for a while. Hence why I am excited we got a break or "gifted" some good picks. hahha

The wings for (frank)ed this year. They never got breaks, they are just a well run org. Rangers on the other hand were run like poop for a while. Hence why I am excited we got a break or "gifted" some good picks. hahha
- nyrangers2

My Dad is a lifelong Rangers fan. Favourite player was Andy Bathgate. He's hated the Leafs ever since Bathgate was traded to them. He literally cried in '94 when the Rangers won the Cup. MSG is still my favourite place to watch a hockey game. Even though it smells like elephant poop in the spring! Darn circus!

When I was in Iraq, we used to watch the close-air-support aircraft do their thing.....and there was much rejoicing ("yyyeeeeaaaahhhhhhh!"). After a while, we just kept fighting with no regard for the aircraft......I kinda feel that way about the draft. Make sense?
I agree with G; if any of those 3 teams would've "won", I probably woulda flipped my wig and had to be committed to a "special" place for my head

- mcmastermike1968

I don’t totally get the analogy, but thank you so much for your service! We appreciate you, and love having you on the board!

I don’t totally get the analogy, but thank you so much for your service! We appreciate you, and love having you on the board!
- Jeremy Laura

Well, thanks for that; the families pay the price when their Soldier, Airman, Marine, Sailor, or Coastguardsman is deployed. They're really the heroes.

My analogy was more like: After watching such destruction for a while, you become numb. Same with the dorking we've taken in the draft "lottery"......you just get numb and want to move on to the next big thing.

Well, thanks for that; the families pay the price when their Soldier, Airman, Marine, Sailor, or Coastguardsman is deployed. They're really the heroes.

My analogy was more like: After watching such destruction for a while, you become numb. Same with the dorking we've taken in the draft "lottery"......you just get numb and want to move on to the next big thing.
- mcmastermike1968

Very well put. My high school buddy was a sonar tech on a sub. Those deployments were brutal (long and lonely) and apparently after a few weeks all you have unspoiled is goat’s milk or soy milk. Hoping and praying you reap a fantastic and joy filled rest of your life for all you did. Very grateful sir

No thank you to drafting Askarov with the 4th or even in the top 10. Let someone else take the gamble on him. Plenty of young more proven goalies will be available due to the expansion draft and they won't cost a top pick to get.

If the Wings were loaded with top young talent at forward and defense (for example like Carolina), then sure take the gamble on the goalie...but we all know the Wings are far from loaded at either forward or defense.
- dcz28

Exactly! I am thinking they take Marco Rossi, unless Stutzle or Byfield falls to #4...but I doubt it

Solid analysis, as usual, Sven. There are SO many holes in our line-up....there are VERY few players in this draft that can project directly to the NHL, so anyone we choose may well spend 1-2yrs in the minors. I'd be ok trading #4 to drop down for another 1st & high 2d, or a ready-now YOUNG D...Drop down to the back-end to draft Askarov so we don't take it in the shorts as badly.

That being said; Drysedale is a stud, Stutzle is a stud, would hate to lose out on either of those 2 players; they're 1yr MAX from being an NHLer, losing them would be just as painful as dropping to 4th this year (we got DORKED on that deal). There are some great assets that will pop up with the expansion draft, great deals to be made again, lots of back-room deals made to take/protect players that would cost a strong prospect, flat-cap cuts....So many variables this year....
- mcmastermike1968

Rossi is near NHL ready also! And probably the best scorer available at #4!!

I see in one mock draft that Detroit does not take a D-man till their 7th pick!! (5th rd) The 1st 6 picks are all forwards! And others are similar............I imagine they are going more on BPA rather than need.........

You're on a Red Wings blog. We don't have to stop anything. Take your selective justification somewhere else if it bothers you so much. Who exactly are you trying to convince? Us or yourself? Take your good fortune and stop whining. If you weren't a Rangers Fan you'd be singing a much different tune. No bias though. Cheer for the laundry.

You're seriously going to complain to Red Wings fans about other team's fans whining about the Rangers being rewarded the 1st overall pick? When last year you were gifted Kakko second overall? That's rich!

Us Red Wings fans have seen our team get screwed royally in the draft lottery for 4 consecutive years. Your team literally gets the pick the Red Wings should rightfully have after being the worst team in the NHL. We're picking 4th for (frank) sakes!

Cry me a (frank)ing river! 🤮
- gergeswillems

I see in one mock draft that Detroit does not take a D-man till their 7th pick!! (5th rd) The 1st 6 picks are all forwards! And others are similar............I imagine they are going more on BPA rather than need.........
- HenryHockey

Is this the Ken Holland Red Wings mock draft?

Rossi is near NHL ready also! And probably the best scorer available at #4!!
- HenryHockey

I'd have no problem if Yzerman drafted Rossi. I just prefer Drysdale.

The conventional wisdom on this draft seems to be Laf in Tier 1, Byfield and Stutzle in Tier 2, and then a big Tier 3 that includes most or al of Drysdale, Rossi, Perfetti, Lundell, Raymond, maybe Holtz, maybe Sanderson.

I don’t claim to be a prospect expert and admittedly haven’t focused much on prospect analysis until the last couple of years, but I’m not sure I agree with that wisdom. The more I dig into the data the more I tend to think of Laf, Byfield, and Rossi as pretty much neck and neck in the top tier, with the others following behind to some degree. I suspect Laf is a little overrated (but still a credible first overall pick) and Rossi is quite a bit underrated in comparison to the conventional wisdom.

Laf and Byfield will almost certainly be gone by No. 4, but I think Rossi will probably still be there, because I think Stutzle (or maaaybe Drysdale) will be the second or third guy off the table.

I don’t hate Stutzle or anything; he’s a great prospect, but I probably have him 4-6 on my board instead of 2-3 like most people do. As for Drysdale, I think he’s a good bet to be a solid NHL defenseman but I personally I find him kinda underwhelming for a “best defender available” in a draft—plus apparently 2021 is supposed to be much deeper on defense. I’m not convinced he has the same kind of all-star upside as a few of the forwards that should be available at No. 4.

Again, not a prospect expert, I expect to be wrong about a lot of stuff, maybe even hilariously wrong. But I would not be at all surprised if Rossi ends up being the best player drafted this year. If he falls to like 6-10 (which seems plausible) there might be a lot of teams kicking themselves for a long time.

Just my opinion, though.

I'd have no problem if Yzerman drafted Rossi. I just prefer Drysdale.
- gergeswillems

The common belief is that a team takes the best available player when their draft position comes up (e,g,. Zadina 2 years ago). But I think that, at some point, a team has to select based upon true need. We know DET needs D & G, so I would still opine that selecting the best available D at #4 is what I would recommend. I know I'm not Stevie Y, and I know that dude's got some brains & INSIGHT (most importantly) that none of us common-folk have, so will trust his gut and his selections. I just would REALLY like to see a solid D selected, then try to trade into the back-half of the 1st round for Askarov (I know, I know, I know..."Get off goalies, Dude!!!").

If you think about development, G & D take longer (in the aggregate), so selecting Askarov NOW will give him developmental time, so when he starts hitting his stride our Wings should be coming out of play-off hibernation & contending for spots.

Just random thoughts. I REALLY like Sven's analysis below, btw; good laydown.

Oh, TB v CBJ was epic last night. Korpisalo was incredible, great game......now for the 'Canes!!!!

Ya'll be safe.

The common belief is that a team takes the best available player when their draft position comes up (e,g,. Zadina 2 years ago). But I think that, at some point, a team has to select based upon true need. We know DET needs D & G, so I would still opine that selecting the best available D at #4 is what I would recommend. I know I'm not Stevie Y, and I know that dude's got some brains & INSIGHT (most importantly) that none of us common-folk have, so will trust his gut and his selections. I just would REALLY like to see a solid D selected, then try to trade into the back-half of the 1st round for Askarov (I know, I know, I know..."Get off goalies, Dude!!!").

If you think about development, G & D take longer (in the aggregate), so selecting Askarov NOW will give him developmental time, so when he starts hitting his stride our Wings should be coming out of play-off hibernation & contending for spots.

Just random thoughts. I REALLY like Sven's analysis below, btw; good laydown.

Oh, TB v CBJ was epic last night. Korpisalo was incredible, great game......now for the 'Canes!!!!

Ya'll be safe.
- mcmastermike1968

This is a common perspective but honestly I’m not sure that I agree with it. Most of the research I’ve read on trying to analyze player aging curves statistically suggests that “peak” performance really is like 22-25 for all positions.

One of the craziest things about these findings is that, because most goalies don't even get significant playing time until at least age 22, they're typically already as good as they're ever going to be in their rookie year. That's confirmed by the data: a perfectly average NHL goalie with a perfectly average career curve will literally never improve. The expected year-to-year change in performance metrics is always negative.

What I suspect is going on with goalies and defenseman “taking longer” is less about them actually reaching their peak later, and more about the fact that defensive skills are just a lot harder to measure and judge than offensive skills, so it takes longer for coaches to identify who their best defenders / goalies are and start to trust them with big minutes.

In other words, they lag behind forwards not because they’re slower to develop, but because they’re slower to get recognized.

I had a discussion with gergeswillems earlier in the offseason where I suggested that Jimmy Howard might have spent the majority of his peak years playing for Grand Rapids. I honestly think that’s probably true.

Anyway, the point of this rambling aside is that, if the Wings do end up taking Drysdale, or Askarov, or any other non-forward, my hope is that they would still give that player the opportunity to make the big club sooner rather than later. No more “over-seasoning.” No more “tie goes to the veteran.”

It’s a young man’s game, and if you think a guy is good enough to make the team and has enough elite potential to take him fourth overall, you should probably try to burn off his ELC and get him to the negotiating table for his next contract as early as possible, before he starts rattling off all-star seasons. (Toronto learned this the hard way with Marner.)

Thanks for the discussion. Hope you're staying safe as well.

The common belief is that a team takes the best available player when their draft position comes up (e,g,. Zadina 2 years ago). But I think that, at some point, a team has to select based upon true need. We know DET needs D & G, so I would still opine that selecting the best available D at #4 is what I would recommend. I know I'm not Stevie Y, and I know that dude's got some brains & INSIGHT (most importantly) that none of us common-folk have, so will trust his gut and his selections. I just would REALLY like to see a solid D selected, then try to trade into the back-half of the 1st round for Askarov (I know, I know, I know..."Get off goalies, Dude!!!").

If you think about development, G & D take longer (in the aggregate), so selecting Askarov NOW will give him developmental time, so when he starts hitting his stride our Wings should be coming out of play-off hibernation & contending for spots.

Just random thoughts. I REALLY like Sven's analysis below, btw; good laydown.

Oh, TB v CBJ was epic last night. Korpisalo was incredible, great game......now for the 'Canes!!!!

Ya'll be safe.
- mcmastermike1968

You're forgetting that the Wings also need a #1 or #2 center badly. Maybe Veleno becomes that but maybe he tops off as a 3rd line center that can cover 2C when injuries hit.

I think Rossi could possibly jump in next season as the 2nd line center on the Wings and he's also solid defensively. Personally i have Rossi as the number 4 best player in the draft and i think he might even end up better than Byfield

This is a common perspective but honestly I’m not sure that I agree with it. Most of the research I’ve read on trying to analyze player aging curves statistically suggests that “peak” performance really is like 22-25 for all positions.

One of the craziest things about these findings is that, because most goalies don't even get significant playing time until at least age 22, they're typically already as good as they're ever going to be in their rookie year. That's confirmed by the data: a perfectly average NHL goalie with a perfectly average career curve will literally never improve. The expected year-to-year change in performance metrics is always negative.

What I suspect is going on with goalies and defenseman “taking longer” is less about them actually reaching their peak later, and more about the fact that defensive skills are just a lot harder to measure and judge than offensive skills, so it takes longer for coaches to identify who their best defenders / goalies are and start to trust them with big minutes.

In other words, they lag behind forwards not because they’re slower to develop, but because they’re slower to get recognized.

I had a discussion with gergeswillems earlier in the offseason where I suggested that Jimmy Howard might have spent the majority of his peak years playing for Grand Rapids. I honestly think that’s probably true.

Anyway, the point of this rambling aside is that, if the Wings do end up taking Drysdale, or Askarov, or any other non-forward, my hope is that they would still give that player the opportunity to make the big club sooner rather than later. No more “over-seasoning.” No more “tie goes to the veteran.” .
- Sven22

Interesting, insightful, and thought provoking as is your norm!!

I completely agree with "over seasoning" in GR. DET was notorious for that. Will be interesting to see how The Caprin's seasoning process evolves, new leadership includes new processes & philosophies. I'm jazzed to see who #4 will be...as well as how JV & MS develop; what kind of playing time do they get this upcoming season, etc...

Thanks for the insightful response!!!

You're forgetting that the Wings also need a #1 or #2 center badly. Maybe Veleno becomes that but maybe he tops off as a 3rd line center that can cover 2C when injuries hit.

I think Rossi could possibly jump in next season as the 2nd line center on the Wings and he's also solid defensively. Personally i have Rossi as the number 4 best player in the draft and i think he might even end up better than Byfield
- dcz28

Mornin', DC! Look, DET has gaps upon gaps to fill for sure. I can't say we're set at any position. I would opine that G & D are glaringly void of talent. But definitely need C help as well.

The Captain is in an unenviable position; fix a sinking ship with band-aids & hope she floats. Thankfully we have some cap space this year, and some "not so good" contracts coming off the books next year. Rossi is an interesting choice, saw scouting reports that his IQ is off the charts, Drysedale is a stud and just about NHL-ready as any other Top 6 (or so...) draftee. Going to be interesting; I've got my popcorn ready for the draft, COVID impacts on Training Camp, and season!!!