im reading through the Marner thread now, but I remember my reaction...4 mil more than willy was too much...

this a tumble prediction




thread
https://www.hockeybuzz.co...read_id=161843&forum_id=1
- senstroll

yup. at that point. that was my prediction.

if you go back further - I would have consistently said ~8.5m on a long-term deal was fair value.

The Kadri playoff suspension jokes will never get old.
- mjones242

Yeah, they're always great.

To be fair to Babcock, first 20 games or so of season was virtually only against what later would be playoff teams.
Then Keefe took over with a really easy dece$ber schedule
- MaximusAurelius

Babcock also started the season with injuries to Dermott, Hyman and with Barrie being essentially useless. Tavares looked lost due to the recent birth of a child. Not saying Babcock shouldn't have been fired... but it would have better to can him after the end of last years playoffs. Bad judgement on Dubas and Shanny's part in my opinion.

acquiring Barrie - bad judgement.

signing Kerfoot, Johnsson and Kapanen each to about .5 milly too much - bad judgement.

when does the bad judgement stop?

Just curious. This is off-topic as hell.

So, HB just doesn't have a Lightning blogger now?

He is AWOL. Not a peep since Round Robin.

agree with everything you said except one part is inconsistent on Dubas part.

He(Dubas) supposed to be the "analytics" guy.. and its pretty clear that type of d-man the Leafs needed wasn't and ISN'T the type of D-man Barrie is. Stats showed that Barrie was quite a bit worse than Jake Gardiner defensively.

So while the trade was a good risk to take - the player he acquired was a "splash"... which turned into a belly-flop.

Unfortunately it seems that Dubas doesn't want to address what the obvious problems are.
- BorjeFan4Ever

Analytics are fine. But the numbers don't play the games, the players do. The numbers don't necessarily show for instance that player x folds up like a cheap suitcase at the slightest sniff of adversity. The eye test - how a player, a team looks and responds in a given situation is also important. I often don't like watching the leafs.

Analytics are fine. But the numbers don't play the games, the players do. The numbers don't necessarily show for instance that player x folds up like a cheap suitcase at the slightest sniff of adversity. The eye test - how a player, a team looks and responds in a given situation is also important. I often don't like watching the leafs.
- fifty__missions

Ya we know.

agree with everything you said except one part is inconsistent on Dubas part.

He(Dubas) supposed to be the "analytics" guy.. and its pretty clear that type of d-man the Leafs needed wasn't and ISN'T the type of D-man Barrie is. Stats showed that Barrie was quite a bit worse than Jake Gardiner defensively.

So while the trade was a good risk to take - the player he acquired was a "splash"... which turned into a belly-flop.

Unfortunately it seems that Dubas doesn't want to address what the obvious problems are.
- BorjeFan4Ever

Im gonna go ahead and guess top 4 RHD at 2.85 million were a little difficult to come by at that point?

It was a poop trade, but it's easy for you and I and everyone else to say that with hindsight, isn't it. Senstroll posted the link to that blog, it wasn't exactly overwhelmed with negative comments when the trade was made, was it. 🤷‍♂️

Fact of the matter is if dubas came into this blog and said alright guys... We can have Tyson Barrie this season at 2.875 million... Or we can plug marincin into that spot? Jordan Schmaltz? What do you guys want?

Now that it's said and done everyone's first to the soapbox to act like their decision wouldn't have been the former as well...

Analytics are fine. But the numbers don't play the games, the players do. The numbers don't necessarily show for instance that player x folds up like a cheap suitcase at the slightest sniff of adversity. The eye test - how a player, a team looks and responds in a given situation is also important. I often don't like watching the leafs.
- fifty__missions

People who count shots won't be able to replicate the results of an eye test but there's some folks who are using machine learning to describe the game that may be able to actually determine a player's propensity to fold up like a used maxipad in the face of tough competition.

I am not ready to join the fire Dubas train, it's too soon. Let's be honest at the time of the Marleau deal to Carolina, no one thought the Leafs would miss the playoffs.

It just didn't work out as everyone hoped, and I don't think that is Dubas' fault the Leafs couldn't get by CBJ in the play in round.

The Kadri trade, we got back what was needed a top 4 RHD and a guy that could play as the #3C. Dubas had the right idea, but Barrie turned out to be a tire fire at times.
- PatC80

No we didn't think we would miss the playoffs but we signed a contract that walks Matthews to free agency, and I bet he doesn't finish in the scoring race in a position to justify his salary; lose/lose.

Then we effectively traded away a first round pick for the pivilege of signing Marner to another overpaid contract.

Along the way, we all but ignored our defensive problems and even ended up trading for a guy who was KNOWN to be poor defensively, and gave away what little toughness we had in our forward lines to get him.

The team has regressed. There is no other way to look at it. They have no saviors on the farm. Their best prospect is a very small forward. They had no first last year, none this year, and not much cap space to fix anything. In the meantime, teams way below us when he started, have now passed us, and/or are not in cap hell, and/or enjoying the playoffs and have their first round pick.

Dubas literally (frank)ed up everything about the team, and the one thing he hung his hat on, the 40 million dollar babies are easily the most over-rated forward core in the league.

In hindsight this year didn't pan out. Dubas certainly wasn't the only guy that believed (when he traded Marleau) that the Leafs were a playoff team. Also most pundits believed that his one year "fix" with Barrie was a good risk. And generally, buying term on young RFA's works out worse in the early years but better in the later years of the contract.

It didn't work ....noted. 30 teams will want to have a better off season.

If he was making moves that made zero sense at the time I'd be on board. But, these decisions made good sense to me (except maybe the signing of Ceci).

Marner over 3 years would have been ~ 8AAV ..if he would've signed at all. That wouldn't have been enough to keep Marleau. He would've had to have chopped another 4 million.

And guys doing 3 year deals rather than longer term are historically much more likely to leave. The 3 year deal sets up poorly for teams. The player enters his final RFA year with Arb rights giving him ALL the power he wants. He can go to Arb on a 1 yr deal and hit UFA the next year.

I'm not disagreeing that MM looks like he got 1 million too much. But I'm willing to believe there was more to this story then we know. It was always discussed that he was pissed about not getting the 4.8 milliion in rookie bonus that Matthews got. His agent referenced it during the negotiations. Some of that underpayment is probably built into his overpayment.

Dubas was in a no win ...he couldn't let MM sit like he did Willie. It was sign him to the "best" deal you can or trade him. I'm glad they didn't trade him.
- The Law

ultimately - dubas tied up almost half his cap in 4 players. the risk was he would not have be able to put together a roster with depth to compete.

pretty clear now that lack of depth was our issue. the talent level of our top 4 is not an issue - but their caphits are.

nothing is going to change this year. dubas isn't some master of finding under rated cheap players who blossom in toronto. depth will be an issue again.

this is looking more like a colorado rebuild vs. chicago. need to hit the pause button and re-stock picks/prospects.

another year of bad dubas trades and signings is not what we need.

No we didn't think we would miss the playoffs but we signed a contract that walks Matthews to free agency, and I bet he doesn't finish in the scoring race in a position to justify his salary; lose/lose.

Then we effectively traded away a first round pick for the pivilege of signing Marner to another overpaid contract.

Along the way, we all but ignored our defensive problems and even ended up trading for a guy who was KNOWN to be poor defensively, and gave away what little toughness we had in our forward lines to get him.

The team has regressed. There is no other way to look at it. They have no saviors on the farm. Their best prospect is a very small forward. They had no first last year, none this year, and not much cap space to fix anything. In the meantime, teams way below us when he started, have now passed us, and/or are not in cap hell, and/or enjoying the playoffs and have their first round pick.

Dubas completely (frank)ed everything up.
- Aetherial

yup.

not that the season is over, the state of affairs can be assessed.

and it doesn't look good.

Lol

Forwards
_______
Matthews
Tavares
Marner
Nylander
Kapanen
Kerfoot
Hyman
Engvall
Johnsson
Barabanov
Robertson

Defenseman
________
Reilly
Muzzin
Holl
Sandin
Liljgren
Lehtonen

Goalies
_______
Andersen
Campbell

RFA's & UFA's
___________
Mikheyev (3.00 max)
Dermott (2.50 max)
Spezza (1.50 max)
Clifford (2.00 max)

total = 82.00 (within 20-30 k) 23 players


Tradeable assets:

Nylander, Hyman, Kerfoot, Kapanen, Johnsson, Holl, Engvall, (order of value)

I'm not in favor of trading Hyman - only in favor of trading Nylander in a big deal

Kadri playing with everything that Shanahan said the Leafs lacked at his season ending press conference: "grit and compete level".

Yes, I'm looking at you, Nylander.
- fifty__missions

Shanny said mental toughness. Repeated suspensions are not exactly evidence of mental toughness.

Marner didn’t show mental toughness and underperformed. Marner hitting people and not producing offensively would be a sign if him performing.

I worry about a guy like that being put in the Toronto fishbowl.

It might be about time we recognize that Canadian teams in general have a tough time with ridiculous over-the-top media coverage always in everyone's faces.
- Aetherial

lmfaooooooooo 🤣

dubass would take him out and buy cocktails night before games night like, i suspect, he does with his other trophies 🤦‍♂️

Just curious. This is off-topic as hell.

So, HB just doesn't have a Lightning blogger now?

He is AWOL. Not a peep since Round Robin.
- GalacticStone

And...

yup.

not that the season is over, the state of affairs can be assessed.

and it doesn't look good.
- Tumbleweed

You 2 must be best friends..

Ya we know.
- Leafs43

It's fugly sometimes, man. Far too often.

Babcock also started the season with injuries to Dermott, Hyman and with Barrie being essentially useless. Tavares looked lost due to the recent birth of a child. Not saying Babcock shouldn't have been fired... but it would have better to can him after the end of last years playoffs. Bad judgement on Dubas and Shanny's part in my opinion.

acquiring Barrie - bad judgement.

signing Kerfoot, Johnsson and Kapanen each to about .5 milly too much - bad judgement.

when does the bad judgement stop?
- BorjeFan4Ever

Cool

Keefe was without Rielly and Muzzin for a combined 30 games.

But yeah Dermott and Hyman.

Shanny said mental toughness. Repeated suspensions are not exactly evidence of mental toughness.

Marner didn’t show mental toughness and underperformed. Marner hitting people and not producing offensively would be a sign if him performing.
- Canada Cup

Well one of the famous arguments in here is need more Hyman's. I love the guy but he was (frank)ing invisible until game 4.

I doubt one could come up with a handful of players on this team who actually performed from beginning to end.

yup. at that point. that was my prediction.

if you go back further - I would have consistently said ~8.5m on a long-term deal was fair value.
- Tumbleweed

so you would have traded him when he refused?

Forwards
_______
Matthews
Tavares
Marner
Nylander
Kapanen
Kerfoot
Hyman
Engvall
Johnsson
Barabanov
Robertson

Defenseman
________
Reilly
Muzzin
Holl
Sandin
Liljgren
Lehtonen

Goalies
_______
Andersen
Campbell

RFA's & UFA's
___________
Mikheyev (3.00 max)
Dermott (2.50 max)
Spezza (1.50 max)
Clifford (2.00 max)

total = 82.00 (within 20-30 k) 23 players


Tradeable assets:

Nylander, Hyman, Kerfoot, Kapanen, Johnsson, Holl, Engvall, (order of value)

I'm not in favor of trading Hyman - only in favor of trading Nylander in a big deal
- paulozz

Both Dermott and Micky start with a 1 I think

Well one of the famous arguments in here is need more Hyman's. I love the guy but he was (frank)ing invisible until game 4.

I doubt one could come up with a handful of players on this team who actually performed from beginning to end.
- joel878

The only reason I can possibly see Hyman staying is if he takes a hometown discount.

And I mean....His parents are loaded. 5 million a year is pennies to his family and Hyman has side businesses.

Out of all the players on the Leafs he is the one guy I could see sacrificing pay to stay on a team he likes and the city his family lives in.

The only reason I can possibly see Hyman staying is if he takes a hometown discount.

And I mean....His parents are loaded. 5 million a year is pennies to his family and Hyman has side businesses.

Out of all the players on the Leafs he is the one guy I could see sacrificing pay to stay on a team he likes and the city his family lives in.
- Santo_44

Yeah, I can see him taking less. He's playing for the love of the game maybe more than anyone. And it's his hometown team. I hope he does because it'll be tough to keep him.

Analytics are fine. But the numbers don't play the games, the players do. The numbers don't necessarily show for instance that player x folds up like a cheap suitcase at the slightest sniff of adversity. The eye test - how a player, a team looks and responds in a given situation is also important. I often don't like watching the leafs.
- fifty__missions

Not all teams and players get there when your stars are 21-24...Some do and some don't.