Outstanding. Now I know I'm doing it right.




You can rephrase it countless ways, you'd still be wrong.

By the way you commented earlier in the thread on JVR's Expected goals versus Giroux

JVR xGF% 28.61
Giroux xGF% 59.56
- MJL

I think I quoted iXG. JVR was 0.5, Giroux was 0.08.

Roughly speaking, this would mean that in the situations in which Giroux and JVR found themselves, they would have been expected to score, say over 100 games, 1 goal and 50 goals respectively.

What I find fascinating about you is not the nature of the objections you raise (which are frankly very common and are generally a variation of "you can't really predict situations because there are so many variations from instance to instance", and which are common among students) but how staggeringly persistent you are in clinging to it.

I hate probabilities. The chances remain the same, always. If you have a 10 sided die, you have a 10% chance to get any number. It never changes. I hate the idea that it does based on previous rolls.

I've lost many DnD characters with that predictive logic. I just rolled a 1, no way its gonna happen again! Boom roll another 1 and die lol
- Sir_Robot_Farts[/quote]

What I am trying to say is, stats would suggest that is what happened last night.

I would guess a boy. But them I already knew there were (for the vast majority) more boys born every year than girls.


I see every birth as a new event. Just because you had a girl or a boy already, has no bearing on the next birth. So its safest to choose boy.

Im weird I know.


- MBFlyerfan

Also, sex of a baby isnt a random event. I hate statistics because it's just a fancy way of coming up with stories to explain numbers. In reality statistics is just a lie.

Really want all teams who tied series at 3 to lose...

I'd rather not also but there is an expansion draft coming up. I would want a more mobile Justin Braun with a little more puck skill.
- MJL

Wouldn't that traded for player be subject to the expansion draft too, tho? Unless they're a 1st-2nd year player? Or if they have a NMC, woof.

I think I quoted iXG. JVR was 0.5, Giroux was 0.08.

Roughly speaking, this would mean that in the situations in which Giroux and JVR found themselves, they would have been expected to score, say over 100 games, 1 goal and 50 goals respectively.


- PT21

Here is exactly what you wrote and used to disagree with Bill about his evaluation of Giroux

"From an eye test, Hayes showed it is possible to be creative even with this disciplined, stingy Isles D. Advanced stats confirm this. Giroux had an expected goal score (iXG) of 0.08! That puts him 10th on the Flyers roster with 30 mins of ice time. Even NAK is ahead!"

Giroux had a xGF% of 59.56%. Only 4 players had higher.

JVR was at 28.61%

What I find fascinating about you is not the nature of the objections you raise (which are frankly very common and are generally a variation of "you can't really predict situations because there are so many variations from instance to instance", and which are common among students) but how staggeringly persistent you are in clinging to it.
- PT21

I know that you need to deflect and change the story. That's not going to work.

Wouldn't that traded for player be subject to the expansion draft too, tho? Unless they're a 1st-2nd year player? Or if they have a NMC, woof.
- Tomahawk

Yes for sure but the idea is to get some value back in return for a player you drafted and developed. Maybe that player would be less likely to get picked. I would just hate to lose Gostisbehere for nothing. I personally think he should be playing.

Here is exactly what you wrote and used to disagree with Bill about his evaluation of Giroux

"From an eye test, Hayes showed it is possible to be creative even with this disciplined, stingy Isles D. Advanced stats confirm this. Giroux had an expected goal score (iXG) of 0.08! That puts him 10th on the Flyers roster with 30 mins of ice time. Even NAK is ahead!"

Giroux had a xGF% of 59.56%. Only 4 players had higher.

JVR was at 28.61%



I know that you need to deflect and change the story. That's not going to work.
- MJL

So , if I understand correctly, the debate has shifted from the usefulness of my individual stat to using a different one?



That's tremendous progress. You favor the XGF% over iXG? Jeez, maybe you are right!

But we have moved away then from saying we have not accounted for individual vagaries in the statistics?

Wow, what a game. Dallas ties it up

I know that you're well aware that the analytics that NHL teams use are not the same that is available publicly.
- MJL

Maybe their data is more granular, but what they're tracking is probably not all that different than what we have available to us. Teams keep hiring nerds off the internet for a reason.

Yes for sure but the idea is to get some value back in return for a player you drafted and developed. Maybe that player would be less likely to get picked. I would just hate to lose Gostisbehere for nothing. I personally think he should be playing.
- MJL

Agreed. I liked how he looked when he got into the lineup.

Also, sex of a baby isnt a random event. I hate statistics because it's just a fancy way of coming up with stories to explain numbers. In reality statistics is just a lie.
- Sir_Robot_Farts

Ok, here is the answer.

Gogol said that the simplest answer is the right one. But you have to look at it from the perspective of the teacher trying to stimulate interest. Why would a teacher try to drum up interest in an intro class by offering riddles that have obvious answers?

The children of the lady at the bus stop have of course already been born. Since there are no twins, there must be an older child and a younger child. So, in the following, let me writing BG imply older boy and younger girl.

There are 4 possibilities, each equally likely:

BB
BG
GB
GG

The first has been ruled out by observation. There remains 3, equally likely. Of those 3, two have B as the other child's gender.

Thus, probability the other child is male is twice as likely as it is female, so you should guess B.

While in any individual case, you may be wrong, if you keep using this method, you will be right double the time you would be wrong.

Agreed. I liked how he looked when he got into the lineup.
- Tomahawk

After watching Braun get turned around and falling on his ass all night you might as well play Ghost. At least if he plays that poorly in his own zone you might at least get some offense out of him too.

This game is nuts!

Colo scores to go up 4-3.

Dallas scores 10 seconds later to tie.

After watching Braun get turned around and falling on his ass all night you might as well play Ghost. At least if he plays that poorly in his own zone you might at least get some offense out of him too.
- hereticpride

There was a play in which Braun went back to get the puck and he looked really stiff in his skating. I wonder if he is hurt.

There was a play in which Braun went back to get the puck and he looked really stiff in his skating. I wonder if he is hurt.
- PT21

Either that or he’s just totally gassed. He definitely looks like he has a hard time keeping up with the faster pace out there.

After watching Braun get turned around and falling on his ass all night you might as well play Ghost. At least if he plays that poorly in his own zone you might at least get some offense out of him too.
- hereticpride

Easy to hate on Braun, but he has done some good things in this series. Broke up what was probably a sure goal last night. And he's been taking the punishment being 1st guy back on dump ins. With all due respect to the rest of the Flyers dmen, they're not as willing to eat glass as JB.

This game is nuts!

Colo scores to go up 4-3.

Dallas scores 10 seconds later to tie.
- MBFlyerfan

Yeah this game awesome. I wish we could get Kenny Albert announcing for game 7. I hate the announcer in our series. I dont know his same, so boring.

Game 7 OT

This?




- Bendecko

Yeah. I thought he was a bit off for a bunch of games. He was finally chirping last game. Once he gets a goal or two guessing the pest will be unleashed. Just wondering if that will only be one game.

Yes for sure but the idea is to get some value back in return for a player you drafted and developed. Maybe that player would be less likely to get picked. I would just hate to lose Gostisbehere for nothing. I personally think he should be playing.
- MJL

Are you ready to finally discuss who/what he could get in return? To me it makes sense to move on. And have for a year now. Would you agree he is on the block

Yeah. I thought he was a bit off for a bunch of games. He was finally chirping last game. Once he gets a goal or two guessing the pest will be unleashed. Just wondering if that will only be one game.
- Peter Richards

I personally can't wait for the day when TK matures and wastes less energy yapping and stick slamming. He should let his skill do the talking.

I personally can't wait for the day when TK matures and wastes less energy yapping and stick slamming. He should let his skill do the talking.
- Tomahawk

When he’s firing on all cylinders I find it very distracting for the team/players he targets and he’s good at it.

Easy to hate on Braun, but he has done some good things in this series. Broke up what was probably a sure goal last night. And he's been taking the punishment being 1st guy back on dump ins. With all due respect to the rest of the Flyers dmen, they're not as willing to eat glass as JB.
- Tomahawk

While I don’t think he’s been close to great. He had some good stick work and to me played well in o t.

Imo it the speedy players that kill him as with most stay at home types.

And agree. Takes the hit. Martins line have been monsters for them. Braun has been a target for sure.

I personally can't wait for the day when TK matures and wastes less energy yapping and stick slamming. He should let his skill do the talking.
- Tomahawk

I feel the same way but the two are hardly mutually exclusive. Look at Marchand.