Doesn't have to be both. Equal and cheaper is a big win for the Leafs in the Cap world.
- The Law

Yes true.

The Vegas writer for the athletic just had a really good article on what’s happening and the workarounds to keep him there.

Some of it does include trading MAF And either retaining 2 mil or adding a piece.

Perhaps even buying him out.

He says Robin wants stability with how it went in Chicago and on the island.
- dozerD10

Lehner was looking for term last offseason too. Turned down Carolina because they wouldn't go longer than 3 according to rumours.

$8mx6

no need to overpay your rfa's.
- Tumbleweed

Except he could easily sign an offer sheet for more than that. Any average under 8.45 is only a 1st, 2nd, 3rd. Montreal 100% offers that the same way they did with Aho.

Barzal's contract will be worth 80million.
8x10mln AAV or 7x11.5mln AAV.
He's there with Matthews-Marner-Barkov-Eichel-MacKinnon-Pettersson of young FWs in the slot just below McDavid.
- MaximusAurelius

Pettersson's contract will be interesting.
His camp should start with marner like numbers...maybe even higher. I think hes better than marner was the first two years.
Kid is averaging 0.949pts per game, i think marner was around 0.82 his first two years

$8mx6

no need to overpay your rfa's.
- Tumbleweed

Sounds like AA needs to create another chart.

Except he could easily sign an offer sheet for more than that. Any average under 8.45 is only a 1st, 2nd, 3rd. Montreal 100% offers that the same way they did with Aho.
- Leafs43

Front loaded with $21 million in bonus money the first year?

Thing is the Isles easily match that because that's not enough of a return for him.

If you want to actually get a player with an offer sheet you have to offer high enough that the return at least gives the other team pause.

No way Carolina was giving up Aho for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Same goes for the Isles and Barzal.

We want the new shiny toy to destroy.
- AdamFrench

excellent.

not that new and shiney - but we already traded for our next west coast goalie.

jack campbell can be our new vesa bernier.

Front loaded with $21 million in bonus money the first year?

Thing is the Isles easily match that because that's not enough of a return for him.

If you want to actually get a player with an offer sheet you have to offer high enough that the return at least gives the other team pause.

No way Carolina was giving up Aho for a 1st, 2nd and 3rd. Same goes for the Isles and Barzal.
- BINGO!

I know. My point was he will 100% get atleast 8.45 million a year over 5 years. I think he gets more, but that's basically the minimum because he can go to 10 difference teams and sign that contract.

excellent.

not that new and shiney - but we already traded for our next west coast goalie.

jack campbell can be our new vesa bernier.
- Tumbleweed

I like Jack....dont do that to him.
lol

Except he could easily sign an offer sheet for more than that. Any average under 8.45 is only a 1st, 2nd, 3rd. Montreal 100% offers that the same way they did with Aho.
- Leafs43

so 8.5m then.

no reason to pay him more than that.

doesnt make a lot of sense to me to retain on MAF and then sign another 6-7mil
2+6+backup

also, it costs the leafs 1 first to move PM with 1 season at 6 mil
has to be close to the same for MAF with 2 seasons left.

buyout is 2.5, 3, 2, 2 cap hits
- senstroll

The thinking would be this.

IF you believe Lehner is the guy and he's willing to sign term at a decent dollar (say 5 milly) then your options become this ...

1. Fleury at 7 milly plus a new back up;
2. Sign Lehner at 5 milly, swap Fleury eating 2 milly and sign a new back up.

The devils in the detail though. What does Lehner want and can they find a team that values Fleury at 5 million.

From a Leafs perspective ...Fleury at 4 x 2 is interesting but I can't see Vegas eating that much. Although the buyout number on the first two years would be about $3 million.

aren't we looking for a unicorn here? who is trading away a top 15 goalie that makes less than andersen?
- Tumbleweed

Maybe. I guess it depends what the decision makers think about guys like Georgiev, Korpisalo and maybe Demko. I don't know that any are better ...certainly less experienced BUT the point is there are options.

Everyone has a price tag and all of those teams have to atleast think about some goalie issues.

Rangers - do they buyout FL and roll with the two kids or do they look for a good deal for Georgiev and avoid the buyout?

Jackets - they've locked into the other guy and don't have to move anyone BUT Korpisalo's value may have jumped a lot so do they look to move him?

Nucks - touch decisions with the Expansion Draft. I'm guessing Markstrom only signs with a NMC for next summer (or at an inflated price) so do they let him walk and roll with Demko or do they move Demko with his inflated value?

Just throwing spit balls ...

he's 47th in the NHL in points over the last two seasons, tied with Jake Voracek and Anze Kopitar.

If you go by points per game (minimum 100 games played) he's 56th, behind Torey Krug, Alex Radulov, etc.

He's a really good player and he's only 23, but he also hasn't been QUITE the offensive wizard he was his first year.
- BINGO!

on a NYI team with that style of play + lack of offensive support, getting 60+ points is quite an achievement. he's a game changer and obviously worth more than 9mln AAV easily. I'd take Barzal over Eichel on my team as well, and I think Eichel is a terrific player.

The thinking would be this.

IF you believe Lehner is the guy and he's willing to sign term at a decent dollar (say 5 milly) then your options become this ...

1. Fleury at 7 milly plus a new back up;
2. Sign Lehner at 5 milly, swap Fleury eating 2 milly and sign a new back up.

The devils in the detail though. What does Lehner want and can they find a team that values Fleury at 5 million.

From a Leafs perspective ...Fleury at 4 x 2 is interesting but I can't see Vegas eating that much. Although the buyout number on the first two years would be about $3 million.
- The Law

Vegas also doesn't have the picks this year to compensate someone taking Fleury and they kind of need some more prospects so I'd be iffy on next years picks being traded too.

It's a real interesting situation.

My guess, is Fleury is the starter come the new season and they look to make a trade for a guy like Lehner at the deadline again.

Retain 2 million on MAF + pay Lehner 6 or 7 + have a back up goalie. It's going to be 8 to 10 million in goalies on a cap strapped team.

They need to move Martinez hopefully.
- Aaron_85

The Flower plus a backup is 8+ million regardless.

If Lehner is ok with something between 5-6 AND they can find a partner on Fleury at say 5 million then the Cap hit is pretty close.

And I don't see the Marleau comparison. Unless I'm wrong The Flower is still regarded as a #1 'tender, no? If so teams may pay something (small) for him at 5 million x 2. It wouldn't cost Vegas draft pick ...unless some team was willing to take all 7 million.

The Flower plus a backup is 8+ million regardless.

If Lehner is ok with something between 5-6 AND they can find a partner on Fleury at say 5 million then the Cap hit is pretty close.

And I don't see the Marleau comparison. Unless I'm wrong The Flower is still regarded as a #1 'tender, no? If so teams may pay something (small) for him at 5 million x 2. It wouldn't cost Vegas draft pick ...unless some team was willing to take all 7 million.
- The Law

Why are you trading MAF if he's a starter and why isn't that team targeting a younger or other free agent for similar money?

I bet Crawford would take 5 million with some term.

It's a real interesting situation to me and I'm curious on how it will be managed. I'm not saying you're wrong, I just like having this discussion. I can see your view point happening...like the leafs got a first round pick and a depth player + prospect for Kapanen.

he's 47th in the NHL in points over the last two seasons, tied with Jake Voracek and Anze Kopitar.

If you go by points per game (minimum 100 games played) he's 56th, behind Torey Krug, Alex Radulov, etc.

He's a really good player and he's only 23, but he also hasn't been QUITE the offensive wizard he was his first year.
- BINGO!

It's almost like he was benefiting from other teams matching up against Tavares in his rookie season.

Barzal is very good. But he is not in the same tier as the others mentioned. Regardless of what Max thinks.

$8mx6

no need to overpay your rfa's.
- Tumbleweed

Lowballing your RFAs is a waste of time and creates animosity. He'll get more than this, and there is a reason to pay the going rate. If he gets an offer, without accepting, he can show the offer to Lou and Lou will match it, fairly simple. I think there are several teams that would pay $10 million AAV for Barzal. Offering him $8 would just piss him off.

Why are you trading MAF if he's a starter and why isn't that team targeting a younger or other free agent for similar money?

I bet Crawford would take 5 million with some term.

It's a real interesting situation to me and I'm curious on how it will be managed. I'm not saying you're wrong, I just like having this discussion. I can see your view point happening...like the leafs got a first round pick and a depth player + prospect for Kapanen.
- Aaron_85

For sure ..it's interesting. The whole hypothetical is premised on IF the Knights want to lock up Lehner (because they like him better than Fleury). And in terms why another team would take Fleury ...same assumption ...it would have to be some team that likes him at 5 million (or whatever) over some of the other options.

I'm not sure what's out there yet in terms of options. This playoffs has been pretty wild for evaluating goalies. Is Khudobin good ..or poop? Bishop, the Avalanche guys? ...Korpisalo and Demko showed way better than expected ....???

Maybe. I guess it depends what the decision makers think about guys like Georgiev, Korpisalo and maybe Demko. I don't know that any are better ...certainly less experienced BUT the point is there are options.

Everyone has a price tag and all of those teams have to atleast think about some goalie issues.

Rangers - do they buyout FL and roll with the two kids or do they look for a good deal for Georgiev and avoid the buyout?

Jackets - they've locked into the other guy and don't have to move anyone BUT Korpisalo's value may have jumped a lot so do they look to move him?

Nucks - touch decisions with the Expansion Draft. I'm guessing Markstrom only signs with a NMC for next summer (or at an inflated price) so do they let him walk and roll with Demko or do they move Demko with his inflated value?

Just throwing spit balls ...
- The Law

i hear ya.

i just don't see georgiev or korpisalo being on par with andersen. benning drafted demko. i would be shocked if they didn't lock him up long-term.

It's almost like he was benefiting from other teams matching up against Tavares in his rookie season.

Barzal is very good. But he is not in the same tier as the others mentioned. Regardless of what Max thinks.
- GreatGigInTheSky

so this is saying Matthews is benefitting from getting the easy matchups as well?

Barzal is a top10 young FW in NHL, and he's really really good - and indeed in same category as Eichel.

aren't we looking for a unicorn here? who is trading away a top 15 goalie that makes less than andersen?
- Tumbleweed

In theory, a team that likes the idea of paying $1M in actual dollars this season for a goalie who they think is under-rated, because he plays behind crappy Leafs defence, in front of crappier Leafs press.

That's the theory.

It's now someone else's job to apply in in real life..

Lowballing your RFAs is a waste of time and creates animosity. He'll get more than this, and there is a reason to pay the going rate. If he gets an offer, without accepting, he can show the offer to Lou and Lou will match it, fairly simple. I think there are several teams that would pay $10 million AAV for Barzal. Offering him $8 would just piss him off.
- winsix

asking for +10M when other guys in the room are topping out at 5-7M can also create animosity.

8x6 is a little low looking at what comparable guys signed for last year. 8.5mx5 is more than fair. a lot of scratch and makes him the highest paid player on the team.

marner 10.9x6
rantanen 9.25x6
aho 8.5x5
Laine 6.8x3
Point 6.8x3

i hear ya.

i just don't see georgiev or korpisalo being on par with andersen. benning drafted demko. i would be shocked if they didn't lock him up long-term.
- Tumbleweed

If it weren't for the Cap this would be easy. I think his desire to keep the Big 4 together and improve the defense has to at least make him consider taking some risk in net.

When I look at next years Cap ..if he wants to add a partner for Rielly he has to save another 1.5-2.0 milly somewhere on the Roster. So I think that means he either moves Johnsson and replaces him with Robertson OR he moves Freddy and replaces him with one of those younger cheaper guys (eg. Korpisalo at 2.8).

The Johnsson move is probably the easiest and it lets you keep Freddy this year. BUT you look ahead to next summer and another flat cap and if you want to sign Hyman (I'd guess around 4.5 ish?) then Freddys not coming back unless he's willing to sign for 4'ish per year.

There's going to be sacrifice somewhere ...I'm over with it being on the blue line.

In theory, a team that likes the idea of paying $1M in actual dollars this season for a goalie who they think is under-rated, because he plays behind crappy Leafs defence, in front of crappier Leafs press.

That's the theory.

It's now someone else's job to apply in in real life..
- Atomic Wedgie

The only way I see this is if the Leafs are convinced there’s a reclamation out there: Murray turns it around or Holtby remembers how to play and they decide to move Freddie for whatever they can get.