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Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: Offseason Primer
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-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Sep 18 @ 3:38 PM ET
I have to believe the Hawks will try to sign Kubalik for less than $4 mil. But if they cannot they should offer $4,363,096. Then if the Canadians or any team want to offer more than that the Hawks get a 1st and a 3rd. The offering team will have to think hard about that.
walleyeb1
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Petersburg, IL
Joined: 09.25.2014

Sep 18 @ 3:59 PM ET
I have to believe the Hawks will try to sign Kubalik for less than $4 mil. But if they cannot they should offer $4,363,096. Then if the Canadians or any team want to offer more than that the Hawks get a 1st and a 3rd. The offering team will have to think hard about that.
- -Doh-



$3.25m
glennjpawlak22
Joined: 11.26.2013

Sep 18 @ 4:12 PM ET
Not sure how many of you saw this article, kind of buried within the Website.

https://dawindycity.com/2...wks-ed-olczyk-not-return/

Interesting read in that both Foley and Eddie were cast as some of the best announcers in the NHL.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Sep 18 @ 4:14 PM ET
My question with trying to go the Kuemper route is what we have to send their way. If there’s several teams interested, the cost may be prohibitive. Unless there are other pieces included, making it a hockey trade instead of a bidding war. No idea what that would look like.
- walleyeb1


The question of 'why spend assets to acquire Kuemper when you can just sign Crawford' are legit, but there are valid reasons:

- age
- health
- if Crawford want a NMC that takes away from the Hawks flexibility with the expansion draft. Kuemper doesn't have any type of NMC/NTC
- salary cap > the Hawks can send some salary back to the Yotes to offset the cap hit
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Sep 18 @ 4:27 PM ET
The Penguins re-signed McCann for 2 years @ $2.94 million AAV.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Sep 18 @ 4:31 PM ET
Not sure how many of you saw this article, kind of buried within the Website.

https://dawindycity.com/2...wks-ed-olczyk-not-return/

Interesting read in that both Foley and Eddie were cast as some of the best announcers in the NHL.

- glennjpawlak22


He was in the running for the Florida job, right?
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 18 @ 4:33 PM ET
The Penguins re-signed McCann for 2 years @ $2.94 million AAV.
- DarthKane

McCann's year to year salary: 1st year at $2.5M, 2nd year at $3.38M.

That could be a good model for Bowman to do multi-year deals for say Kubalik, Strome, and even Crawford if he's pushing for more than just a one-year contract.

Incremental increases each year with hope for higher-priced veterans coming off the books and youngsters on ELCs taking those spots.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Sep 18 @ 4:36 PM ET
The Penguins re-signed McCann for 2 years @ $2.94 million AAV.
- DarthKane


Is he injured a lot or scratched? It looks like 18-19 was his high mark for games played at 78. Every other year the max is 69. He split time NHL/AHL in 16-17. 66 games last year.

Edit: yup, I'm an idiot and forgot that this year was shortened.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Sep 18 @ 4:45 PM ET
The question of 'why spend assets to acquire Kuemper when you can just sign Crawford' are legit, but there are valid reasons:

- age
- health
- if Crawford want a NMC that takes away from the Hawks flexibility with the expansion draft. Kuemper doesn't have any type of NMC/NTC
- salary cap > the Hawks can send some salary back to the Yotes to offset the cap hit

- DarthKane


I would think if they move to $4M Crow takes it.
DarthKane
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 5.13.4.9
Joined: 02.23.2012

Sep 18 @ 4:51 PM ET
I would think if they move to $4M Crow takes it.
- Chunk



For me the key with Crawford is to not give a NMC/NTC
SaskHawkFan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: SK
Joined: 05.18.2014

Sep 18 @ 4:58 PM ET
For me the key with Crawford is to not give a NMC/NTC
- DarthKane


i would bet my left nut he gets one.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Sep 18 @ 5:06 PM ET
Summary of key offseason dates in the NHL: (click the image to make it larger)


- Theo Fox


I noticed the buyout period before The Entry Draft
Is this the same even aka compliance buyout?

I recall reading during negotiations how both sides were content to omit compliance buyouts in the new CBA.

I imagine if any trades involving exchange of draft picks - such as moving up in round one or trading a descent player (whose contract is too much/see Phoenix salary cap vs expected revenue story) - again to get perhaps a better first round selection - we see some trade after buyouts and before the draft.

There may be a player an NHL team wants to invest in to become a core piece. That player may not become a core piece as early as next season

A team could go with a less expensive alternative at a position and feel the replacement ultimately is whom they draft in round one. Conditional trades after a buyout when a team has more money to spend and more salary cap room too. Whether this could mean Phoenix or Chicago or someone else snags the next best dman or Askarov..

I have heard that Sanderson continues as a fast riser. Might he go before Drysdale? Or maybe a team wants to grab Lundell because he could step in and replace a salary cap hit (example: Saad)..Could also be a team wants a skill forward before the tier level of prospect rating drops. So at # 12 a team grabs someone like Mercer

It will be interesting to see what some either creative and or worried GM's do regarding salary dumps and draft choices
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Sep 18 @ 5:16 PM ET
For me the key with Crawford is to not give a NMC/NTC
- DarthKane


Preach.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Sep 18 @ 5:25 PM ET
Preach.
- Chunk

If traded he might just retire instead of report to a new team?
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Sep 18 @ 5:30 PM ET
If traded he might just retire instead of report to a new team?
- jhawk59


He's UFA, so he's not being traded. It's simply a matter of whether or not he accepts the Hawks offer.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 18 @ 6:41 PM ET
Thanks again for another great post. I was going to post last night on the coaches write up, but I was waiting for the GM/Off-season one.

The real question for me is what is ownership/Stans true expectations for this upcoming season with our roster. Does he think he can win a cup with this group? Is he going to try and squeeze 1 more year out of “the core” before trying to truly rebuild properly? Just like in Talladega Nights, “if you’re not 1st you’re last”.

Signing Crawford or trading for a 30 yr old goalie is just putting a band aid on, in my opinion. We won the cups with young “core” in their prime early-mid 20’s, lead by generational talents in Kane, Keith, Toews, and Seabrook. Big Buff, Bolland, Brouwer, Shaw, hammer, bickell and the trades for Sharp, Ladd, leddy & Frolik...all were in 20’s and meshed together. We then topped it off with Hossa & Soupy in FA....but we had already drafted/traded most of the other pieces.

Keith is still good but he’s now.... 37. Seabrook is a warrior.... but he’s 35 and not sure how mobile he is. Even Kane & Toews are now 31 & 32....with a lot of miles on them.

The team will have to make some pretty unpopular moves coming soon. They have the Cubs & Sox to show a tear down...a complete rebuild is how to be competitive again in today’s salary cap era. Yes, nothing is 100% we could draft another Cam Barker, but that’s why you pay & trust your scouts (which I’m not saying I actually do; looking at some of the Montreal trades).

I’m not sure if they can even trade him while on IR (plus he would have to waive NMC), but we would need to take a bad contract back in moving Seabrook this year (Eriksson in Vancouver maybe); or after the season try and give up prospects/picks for Seattle to draft in expansion draft.

The larger question associated with a rebuild, is the other core members want to wait the 3-4 years for the 18 year old prospects (if drafted this year) to mature into their prime.

The hawks do have quite a few interesting mid level prospects that I am hoping to see more of at Rockford this upcoming year. I survived (it was painful at times to watch) going to Hawks games in the early 2000’s. But, I would do that again if it meant we had a shot at 2010, 2013, and 2015 again. Ottawa picked a great deep draft to have 7 picks in the first 2 rounds.

I apologize again for the length on this.

- DrewDawg

Thanks for sharing your thoughts. I don't mind the length as you had shared multiple points.

Preface: the following comments are not in direct response to what you said but your post had kernels in there that hone in on the crossroad that the Blackhawks are at.

My take is trying to recapture the glory days will end up being a fruitless endeavor. Likewise, trying to center all decisions around the core will just limit options.

Instead, identify who is optimal for building the most competitive team possible while taking into account restrictions like NMC/NTC, albatross contracts, injury concerns, etc. It's not an easy task, of course.

I think this is where it may help that Colliton doesn't have any allegiances and instead strives to build his own unique relationships with players from the veterans down to the rookies.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Sep 18 @ 6:48 PM ET
NY Yankees just tied a major league record with 5 HRs in an inning - they also set a record by hitting 6 HRs in each of 3 consecutive games (19 total).

Chicks dig the long ball....

- StLBravesFan

They do, but in the playoffs, good pitching beats good hitting. No more beating up on AAA quality hurlers.
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Sep 18 @ 8:59 PM ET
Because a Detroit is far away from being a contending team, everyone would rather play on a winner.
- LAHawk


If the player himself comes from money maybe but if they don't, no way they don't sign the contract, didn't Aho sign the contract and Montreal wasn't a contender? Or when Philly offered Weber all that cash i don't believe they were playoff bound. A players career is short they are a fool if they don't take what they can get while they have the ability to get it is crazy. These athletes are 1 injury away from being thrown out on their ass. Winning over money, poop.

You are (frank)ing with me aren't you
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Sep 18 @ 9:51 PM ET
He's UFA, so he's not being traded. It's simply a matter of whether or not he accepts the Hawks offer.
- Chunk


I meant if he signs then later on he could be traded. If someone is playing extremely well at Rockford and Bowman is content with the current NHL back up sharing the net with the AHL player, at some point you have to part ways with Crawford. Crawford could play two more seasons here but what if another team offers to flip their first for our #2 because they need a veteran proven winner in net. Tjat team has an injury or simply wants two strong goaltenders. See Vegas decision this season as one example to have two strong netminders.

Next season is the last before the salary cap being flat + expansion really could subtract quality depth from a roster. If a team wants to go for it, they might like Crawford as a rental for remainder of season. He could be released or traded back to Chicago after the expansion draft. If he said he wants to play another season, then he has a contract already for year two or negotiates for year two

At some point Crawford is not the future so IF IF IF we could get something for him.......i realize whether you trade him or not could depend on the expectation of making the playoffs. But it is not good business sense to give him a no trade or promise he will be protected in The Expansiob Draft. He isn't going to play anywhere else on his own accord. He would finish a season elsewhere if traded most likely so that he can collect a paycheck. Then he re-signs here after being dealt back. Or retires.

Bowman has options whether they make sense or not (given the team's record) both now and later on regarding Crawford..
EbonyRaptor
Joined: 03.28.2013

Sep 18 @ 10:22 PM ET
I hope Stan has a time limit for Crawford to make his decision so it doesn't drag out and affect the other moves Stan must make. I don't know when that date is but Stan needs to make the hard decision to move on from Crawford if it comes to that. This can't turn into a "Seabrook loyalty" type contract that cripples the team going forward.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Sep 18 @ 10:38 PM ET
I hope Stan has a time limit for Crawford to make his decision so it doesn't drag out and affect the other moves Stan must make. I don't know when that date is but Stan needs to make the hard decision to move on from Crawford if it comes to that. This can't turn into a "Seabrook loyalty" type contract that cripples the team going forward.
- EbonyRaptor


You're right. And I do not think Bowman will sit on his hands. Bowman is going to be tuning the team toward more younger players aboard. As has been the intended target. How fast how soon determined in part how soon more kids can hold an NHL job. I really believe that Bowman wants Crawfird back, but only on the terms Bowman offers. Given the flat salary cap and covid19, this is practical business sense.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Sep 18 @ 11:41 PM ET
True, but if someone offers Serachev $6.3 mil, he is more than worth a 1st and a 3rd. Of course the player has to sign an offer sheet, so I doubt if Detroit offered it if Sergachev or any other RFA would sign it.

Also with the flat cap, you don't have to overpay either. Is Cirelli worth a second rounder at $4.1? Yes he is, again causes Tampa to really think who they want to lose.

- LAHawk


If you want to pay this kid that much to jump ship, you better have the guy to protect him fro the oppositions babd boys because they targeted him, and the big Bolts protected him.

Cirelli is a player I think may be most likely to get an og=ffer sheet if there are flung around.
I have a feeling his worth is far more than the figure you stated, and that if you wanted him, with Tamps' tight cap, you do it, and they take picks.

The hawks are not righting the SS Balckhawk from an outside move...crap they can't even get Crawford to take less money.

You know I would love to see a team be the first to offer a RFA and that guy to be Kubalik...
I would take the picks and go out and spend the same amount on another RFA that I know is gonna be around long term and help now and the rebuild, and is a plug and play guy, not just someone who is a shooter.
My opinion - I am not paying Kubalik big $ either ...show me a second time, and dont forget Richard Panik - in his first full year he had 22 goals 22 assists , they signed him, and he hasn't has 20 goals in a season since....

"Sorry, Dominck, there are no fans, we need to not regress and we need to sign everyone, so you have to be patient, show us again and we will open the wallet, when the fans return...."
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Sep 18 @ 11:57 PM ET
I hope Stan has a time limit for Crawford to make his decision so it doesn't drag out and affect the other moves Stan must make. I don't know when that date is but Stan needs to make the hard decision to move on from Crawford if it comes to that. This can't turn into a "Seabrook loyalty" type contract that cripples the team going forward.
- EbonyRaptor


Yeah, after he says Crow is the first piece, crap or get off the pot...buy KUEMPER...or

send the easy to swallow Murphy contract to Vancouver for Jacob Marksrtöm if they are silly enough to think their Thatcher Demko, sign Markström for market value and dont look back.

You have a goalie , you bring in the youth IN YOUR SYSTEM, and don't look back if the 3-time Cup Winners get their feelings hurt and want to move on.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Sep 19 @ 1:23 AM ET
If you want to pay this kid that much to jump ship, you better have the guy to protect him fro the oppositions babd boys because they targeted him, and the big Bolts protected him.

Cirelli is a player I think may be most likely to get an og=ffer sheet if there are flung around.
I have a feeling his worth is far more than the figure you stated, and that if you wanted him, with Tamps' tight cap, you do it, and they take picks.

The hawks are not righting the SS Balckhawk from an outside move...crap they can't even get Crawford to take less money.

You know I would love to see a team be the first to offer a RFA and that guy to be Kubalik...
I would take the picks and go out and spend the same amount on another RFA that I know is gonna be around long term and help now and the rebuild, and is a plug and play guy, not just someone who is a shooter.
My opinion - I am not paying Kubalik big $ either ...show me a second time, and dont forget Richard Panik - in his first full year he had 22 goals 22 assists , they signed him, and he hasn't has 20 goals in a season since....

"Sorry, Dominck, there are no fans, we need to not regress and we need to sign everyone, so you have to be patient, show us again and we will open the wallet, when the fans return...."

- wiz1901

Just as much as it may be best for Strome to be on an affordable 1-2 year show-me deal, I am thinking more and more that Kubalik should be on that plan as well.

While I think he will be much better than Panik, Kubalik does need to be more of a force when the puck isn't on his blade.

See if he can not only replicate or surpass his goal output from his rookie year but also enhance his defensive contributions. At least he's not woefully bad on defense.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Sep 19 @ 1:41 AM ET
Just as much as it may be best for Strome to be on an affordable 1-2 year show-me deal, I am thinking more and more that Kubalik should be on that plan as well.

While I think he will be much better than Panik, Kubalik does need to be more of a force when the puck isn't on his blade.

See if he can not only replicate or surpass his goal output from his rookie year but also enhance his defensive contributions. At least he's not woefully bad on defense.

- Theo Fox

I'll take 25 goals a year from Kubalik all day long he doesn't need to surpass this year's goals for $4M AAV if he becomes a stronger player. We're paying Saad $6 to be that right now. But I agree, give a two year bridge deal for my price now and I'll risk losing you in two years. If he becomes the 2nd reincarnation of Panarin which I doubt so be it.
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