It increases every year, and some years it's been significant. 2-3 would be the least it raises. You don't need to be told by anyone to know that as a fact. If you make bets assuming there's global pandemic proportion risks, then you'd be a terrible GM.


But since you didn't apparently know any of this, here you go

https://www.google.com/am...ams-will-benefit-the-most
- edmhatescal

True, it has increased every year, although some years only by as little as 1.6-2M. It was also previously rumored (from the article you linked) that the cap could be flat (until Daly contradicted that). So it is far from a fact that it will increase at least 2-3M in future seasons. Reasonable predictions are not facts.

Thanks for sharing that article though, it does confirm what Sean said, Bill Daly being deputy commissioner would certainly qualify as an authoritative league source. Said limit expected to be 84 to 88, with the 2019-2020 precedent resulting in 85M.

From that, assuming an 85M cap for 2020-2021 would be fairly prudent. 3.5M more than today, and enough to qualify AA, just barely...

But with that extra info, I'll do as I said I would and lay off Holland for this AA trade with respect to cap constraints. I still hope they can clear space to qualify him.

Yes that is exactly my point, and corona or no corona, poop can happen, so going all in on the expected cap increase is a gamble that can burn you in non-pandemic years too. This is why the source matters. If the league was very confident in the cap increase to the point of having league officials actively mislead GMs then I sympathize with the gamble a lot more. If it is just rumored then not so much.

Doesn't AA become a UFA if Holland can't qualify him? And then he walks with nothing to show for it?
- RonPielep

That is a good question that I would also like to know the answer to. I'm not sure either.

That is a good question that I would also like to know the answer to. I'm not sure either.
- EdmHockeyMan

Yes, that's what happens.

Yes, that's what happens.
- MaximumBone

Yikes. That'll suck if that happens.

Yikes. That'll suck if that happens.
- EdmHockeyMan

Eh, it would entirely depend on what he would do with the 3mil. With the number of other RFAs potentially going unqualified and the cap crunch this will put a lot of team under, there's real possibility to find value out of that 3mil that would be greater than what AA is likely- at least on the Oilers.

Nothing about him makes me think he wouldn't bounce back given the right kind of linemates to play with. Unfortunately, we don't have those players.

Yikes. That'll suck if that happens.
- EdmHockeyMan

I wonder what his rights would be worth right now. Only a handful of games after the trade.

Eh, it would entirely depend on what he would do with the 3mil. With the number of other RFAs potentially going unqualified and the cap crunch this will put a lot of team under, there's real possibility to find value out of that 3mil that would be greater than what AA is likely- at least on the Oilers.

Nothing about him makes me think he wouldn't bounce back given the right kind of linemates to play with. Unfortunately, we don't have those players.
- MaximumBone

That's one way of looking at it.

I wonder what his rights would be worth right now. Only a handful of games after the trade.
- RonPielep

I imagine it wouldn't really change that much compared to what he was acquired for?

I wonder what his rights would be worth right now. Only a handful of games after the trade.
- RonPielep

Next to nothing. GM will clue into the fact that he's hard-pressed to qualify him and will delay until UFA unless they REALLY like him.

Next to nothing. GM will clue into the fact that he's hard-pressed to qualify him and will delay until UFA unless they REALLY like him.
- MaximumBone

Possibly the case. Forgot that he can be a UFA if not qualified.

Next to nothing. GM will clue into the fact that he's hard-pressed to qualify him and will delay until UFA unless they REALLY like him.
- MaximumBone

Maybe qualify at 3M then trade could be an option.

Maybe qualify at 3M then trade could be an option.
- RonPielep

That requires that we tie up 3mil on him for the time being and are stuck keeping him if he accepts the QO (if I understand it correctly) or get to wait until the arbitrator decides.

I'm not actually opposed to qualifying him, but it'd be on the condition that the team can still fill the MASSIVE hole at 3C and not miss out on the best available option as a result.

That requires that we tie up 3mil on him for the time being and are stuck keeping him if he accepts the QO (if I understand it correctly) or get to wait until the arbitrator decides.

I'm not actually opposed to qualifying him, but it'd be on the condition that the team can still fill the MASSIVE hole at 3C and not miss out on the best available option as a result.
- MaximumBone

And if I remember correctly, if he signs his QO he cannot be traded until a certain point in the season. Its usually around xmas if i remember correctly, so we are then stuck with that cap hit for nearly half a season to see if we can get some return on investment, and that is not a sure thing either.

And if I remember correctly, if he signs his QO he cannot be traded until a certain point in the season. Its usually around xmas if i remember correctly, so we are then stuck with that cap hit for nearly half a season to see if we can get some return on investment, and that is not a sure thing either.
- wreckage

If that's the case, makes it even harder to make a strong argument for qualifying him.

In fairness, AA does have a consistent track record of scoring at a top-6 rate despite less-than-ideal linemates so a 3rd scoring line would be a viable option. However, this would require Holland manages to find a 3C that would fit that mold (Bozak and, if bought out, Wennberg) while simultaneously adding a 4C capable of not getting his ass handed to him in tough minutes (J Larsson and Richardson) while ALSO addressing the holes at backup G and Connor's W and not downgrading the D.

At the end of the day, retaining him complicates things too much for where the team is currently at- especially without a Neal buyout.