Not a subscriber.
Got the Coles notes?
- dbot
In a flat cap environment, you’re going to see more talented RFAs than usual left unqualified. Clubs are going to be pressed right up against the $81.5 million ceiling, navigating internal budgets and so the uncertainty of arbitration (you don’t know exactly what a player will cost until very late into the offseason if the player files) will scare some teams off.
For Virtanen, the fact he set career-highs with 18 goals and 36 points in 69 games puts him in line for a handsome raise from the $1.25 million he made the last two years. Colleague Thomas Drance broke down Virtanen’s statistical comparables in a June piece and posited that the 24-year-old could net as much as $3-million annually.
That type of cap hit would be a significant investment for the Canucks at a time where every dollar matters. And after a disappointing playoff run where he started as a healthy scratch and finished with just three points in 16 games, the question mark around Virtanen’s name only grows larger. Step one for the club will be determining what exactly they have in the former Calgary Hitman — is he worth a cap hit that could creep into the $3 million range?
Virtanen’s counting stats for this year certainly knock on that door. He paced at a 21-goal, 43 point pace during the regular season despite averaging just over 13 minutes of ice-time per game. The former sixth pick is an efficient scorer who can inject much-needed offence and speed to Vancouver’s bottom-six group. There’s also value in the fact he can move up the lineup and temporarily fill a top-six role if the Canucks are down a right-winger or if Travis Green wants to simply try a different look.
Once you take the next step and dig beneath the surface, however, yellow emerge.
The most obvious detractor is his overall two-way game given his defensive impact is decisively in the red. The number of shots and quality chances the Canucks allow with Virtanen on the ice is quite alarming, considering he doesn’t play matchup minutes. You can see that depicted in the heat map below — red areas indicate parts of the ice where teams generate more chances than the league average and you can see that opponents can pepper the inside when Virtanen steps over the boards.
Natural Stattrick tells us that only three Canucks forwards were on the ice for a higher rate of 5-on-5 scoring chances against than Virtanen. It’s not just the data that suggests his two-way play leaves a lot to be desired, it’s also readily apparent when you break down the video. Virtanen’s defensive awareness is lacking and his play along the walls is a concern — it’s why he’s struggled to earn the trust of Travis Green in higher leverage minutes.
Through his defensive play, Virtanen gives back a meaningful portion of his offensive value. But it doesn’t just end there.
A subtle factor that’s overlooked is that the Abbotsford native’s counting stats perhaps oversell his offensive impact. Virtanen racks up individual points at an efficient rate, but his lines don’t score a lot of goals as a collective unit. Over the last two seasons, the Canucks have netted a paltry 2.07 goals for every 60 5-on-5 minutes that Virtanen has skated, which ranks 268th out of 340 qualified NHL forwards and 10th out of 16 Canucks forwards.
A rebuttal for this would be that Virtanen’s subpar linemates are the cause of these results, but that point doesn’t stand up upon further examination. Every single one of Vancouver’s centres has scored more goals as a line playing without Virtanen then they have with him over the last two seasons.
Even if you were to remove last season from the equation and only focus on this year’s breakout campaign, the same fact remains true.
This is ironic — how do we reconcile Virtanen’s individual production with the failure of his lines to score?
The missing link is opportunity cost and can largely be explained by another case study in Oilers forward Andreas Athanasiou, a former 30-goal scorer. Both forwards are productive personally but don’t exactly help their lines score more and a lot of it comes down to a stylistic factor they share.
Virtanen and Athanasiou are among the fastest players in the league who create a lot of zone entries, lack playmaking vision and shoot the puck a ton (Virtanen is 43rd, Athanasiou ranks 47th among all NHL forwards in individual 5-on-5 shot rate). The end result is that both are guilty of far too many one-and-done rushes that hurt offensive zone time. They’re pure rush players who are skilled enough to convert on a fair share of chances individually, but not well-rounded enough offensively to help anywhere else.
This isn’t to say Virtanen’s not an effective offensive piece. Points still matter and being able to individually bury the puck matters. It’s just that his goal and point totals are a bit flattering to how much he’s helping the cause.
The underwhelming two-way impact is the most pivotal component, but the fact that his lines don’t score much as a unit on top of that erodes much of Virtanen’s overall effectiveness He’s still a useful piece who can help you win games, but he’s not as valuable as the boxcar stats might lead you to believe. Based on this analysis, a price tag that could climb to nearly $3-million in arbitration is likely to be inefficient.
Instead, colleague Dom Luszczyszyn’s model pegs Virtanen as a fringe top-9 forward worth closer to $2-million. So how does this affect his future?
What the Canucks end up doing with Tyler Toffoli will likely have a trickle-down effect on how the Canucks approach Virtanen negotiations. If Vancouver re-signs Toffoli, their top two right-wingers will be set and it’s tough to see how the Canucks would be able to strike a deal on Virtanen unless he’s willing to accept a deal significantly below what his arbitration value is. That makes sense once you consider that the roughly $17-million in cap space that the Canucks have likely shrinks to around $12-million with seven more roster spots (the goalie and an additional right-handed defenceman will probably be costly in particular) to fill even after Toffoli signs.
If Toffoli walks, however, there’s incentive to consider bringing Virtanen back. Vancouver’s right-wing depth probably isn’t deep enough to survive losing both Toffoli and Virtanen, unless there’s somebody the Canucks particularly covet in free agency. At that point, re-signing Virtanen is a potentially attractive option, even if it’s at an inefficient cap hit for one year, just to avoid having to overpay for a UFA contract that you might regret down the road. Josh Leivo could also be a possible fit as a more cost-effective right-wing option, and if the medicals check out it’d likely be the more prudent bet, but he might not be as effective as he was this season after the major injury he suffered.
If an extension isn’t in the cards, general manager Jim Benning will surely scour the trade market to eye potential returns. Unfortunately, Virtanen’s complicated arbitration situation significantly hampers his trade value for a couple of reasons.
For one, teams could have the same concern about an inefficient contract if they trade for his rights and that could scare them off. Second, Vancouver’s leverage is crushed because even the clubs that are interested in Virtanen could wait to see if the Canucks even tender the big right-winger a qualifying offer or if they’ll let him walk straight into UFA like they did with Hutton. If you’re a rival who likes Virtanen, why would you pay premium assets in a trade when it’s possible he hits the open market in just a couple weeks?
This same issue is why Athanasiou, who’s also an arbitration-eligible RFA, is reportedly garnering limited trade interest despite Ken Holland having paid two second-round picks at the deadline for his services. Teams think there’s a chance that the Oilers might not extend Athanasiou a qualifying offer and it’s made his trade value minimal.
At this stage, Vancouver has a few options. The Canucks can threaten to leave Virtanen unqualified and if he wants to stay, he can sign for a modest cap hit below the type of arbitration reward he could get. They can look to trade him (albeit for a limited return). They can cut their losses and let him walk straight to free-agency if they can’t secure a trade. Or they can qualify him and see where a full offseason of negotiations takes them.
Ultimately, Virtanen’s future likely hinges in large part on what happens with Toffoli. The latter is Vancouver’s higher priority and if a deal is hammered out there, Virtanen’s future will be in serious limbo given the type of RFA leverage he carries, coupled with the club’s lack of cap room.
