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Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: Formulaic Structure
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Elbows15
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: I was going to do the math on this but I don't think it will help., IL
Joined: 08.04.2013

Oct 15 @ 6:59 PM ET
How does Chicago benefit from getting a defenseman who has “ Long stretches of poor games over the course of few years (that) was enough for Sakic to make the move”? Especially in trade for a player who you describe as fitting your top 6, a great 2-way play (he isn’t great, he’s pretty good)?
- StLBravesFan

They don't.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Oct 15 @ 7:02 PM ET
Dach has a bright future... in Rockford.
- DarthKane


Indy.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Oct 15 @ 7:13 PM ET
Yeah, Scouts are never wrong.
- Elbows15


There was also more to the article that was actually positive about the moves so, you know, just pass on whatever supports your narrative.
scottak
Location: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley!
Joined: 08.06.2010

Oct 15 @ 7:21 PM ET
There was also more to the article that was actually positive about the moves so, you know, just pass on whatever supports your narrative.
- HawkintheD

There was nothing positive on the goaltender moves. I posted the entire section.

Unless one of the 3 plays much better than they have to this point in their careers, the Blackhawks will have the worst goaltending in the NHL next season.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Oct 15 @ 7:33 PM ET
There was nothing positive on the goaltender moves. I posted the entire section.

Unless one of the 3 plays much better than they have to this point in their careers, the Blackhawks will have the worst goaltending in the NHL next season.

- scottak

That could also be by design in that management knows the goaltending will be very weak yet having faith that hopefully one of them will grow from the experience to become at least a viable backup.

Instead, could the team be strengthening how the skaters (F and D) play defense and protect the net. They definitely have a long way to go from giving up a ton of shots each game especially of the "high danger area" variety.

In other words, if the goalies aren’t strong enough to bail out the team then do the opposite: have the team bail out the goalies. The team needs to learn how to do that anyway even if the goalies are strong.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Oct 15 @ 8:00 PM ET
From Powers & Lazerus in ‘The Athletic’. Comments by other execs on the Blackhawk goaltending situation. My bolded.

Western Conference scout: “If I’m a fan, I’m not happy at all. If I’m Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith in particular, those three alone, they can’t be happy with the goaltending situation in particular. There was a plethora of goaltenders. There’s another goaltender I think in Darcy Kuemper that you can probably get out of there. But they didn’t do that. Going with those three guys, that’s a recipe for disaster. You saw it first hand, Crawford and (Robin) Lehner bailed them out, and a lot of the games they lost they should have lost by even more or not even been in games. I think that’s a problem.”

Eastern Conference scout: “I think the veterans would have been more willing to buy into what they’re doing with this rebuild if they had re-signed Crawford or just been more up front with them about it. It now looks like they let Crawford walk over a measly amount of money. That has a negative effect.”

Western Conference executive: “(Their moves are) a moot point. If you have no goaltending, you have no chance. Subban can’t play. Delia, I think in the best case, he’s a No. 2, and I don’t know if he is. Lankinen, he showed some good things down in Rockford at times and he also showed some not so good. But they’re high on him, they like him. I think they think he’s going to be the guy, but we’ll see. Goaltending is going to be a major thing, and I think the backend (defensively), too.”

So, Subban can’t play, Delia is a #2, and the hope is Lankinen can catch lightning in a bottle.

- scottak


Boy, crap's getting deep (not you). The Hawks are shedding any money contracts they can (the team source said so in the article). They are not going to be very competitive for the next few years. IMO, Stan no longer cares if the core stays or goes. He is starting from scratch.

The team source also said: "Had to move Saad money (they don't tell me exactly why). Tried to get a prospect or two and there was not even one legit offer for him. Saad is overpaid. Cap or real dollars. I don't mind the trade, but I was told we were getting a younger and better (prospect) than Lindholm."
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Oct 15 @ 8:04 PM ET
That could also be by design in that management knows the goaltending will be very weak yet having faith that hopefully one of them will grow from the experience to become at least a viable backup.

Instead, could the team be strengthening how the skaters (F and D) play defense and protect the net. They definitely have a long way to go from giving up a ton of shots each game especially of the "high danger area" variety.

In other words, if the goalies aren’t strong enough to bail out the team then do the opposite: have the team bail out the goalies. The team needs to learn how to do that anyway even if the goalies are strong.

- Theo Fox


I think that is part of it, but I think it's more "we aren't going to be a good team, so we will see how good our goalie prospects actually are and go from there".
TheDrumonMadison
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.20.2019

Oct 15 @ 8:15 PM ET
Perhaps they're looking at the baseball model, 2 months, 60 games?
- rpeters01


No way with such a physical game will they get 2 games in over 3-4 days and contain the virus like the naturally distanced and outdoor baseball. I’m sure the NHL is staying up to date on accurate rapid testing technology developments.

As for the goalie situation, it’s not going to be pretty even with better D. Management is probably looking forward to some high draft picks.

And for a goalie that didn’t play for months, get covid, and immediately return to take on high seed teams in the playoffs. Crow played great as he always did.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Oct 15 @ 8:35 PM ET
Boy, crap's getting deep (not you). The Hawks are shedding any money contracts they can (the team source said so in the article). They are not going to be very competitive for the next few years. IMO, Stan no longer cares if the core stays or goes. He is starting from scratch.

The team source also said: "Had to move Saad money (they don't tell me exactly why). Tried to get a prospect or two and there was not even one legit offer for him. Saad is overpaid. Cap or real dollars. I don't mind the trade, but I was told we were getting a younger and better (prospect) than Lindholm."

- Chunk


Crawford had to be replaced sooner or later. With Crawford maybe make playoffs. Winning opening round is not going to be as easily accomplished as was the case vs Edmonton.

The team still needs more physical compete players on top two lines. The blueline crew is subject to distinct injury occurrence judging from an historical process involving Boqvist, DeHahn, and Murphy. Too much emphasis on youth if a couple dmen are out injured MEANS quite improbable to win even first round no matter Crawford stands on his head.

You cannot automatically say that after next season there is orders to slash payroll. Wait and see. Maybe NHL would experiment with limited seating number if an innoculation is working out.
tvetter
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burkesville, KY
Joined: 12.16.2015

Oct 15 @ 8:56 PM ET
That could also be by design in that management knows the goaltending will be very weak yet having faith that hopefully one of them will grow from the experience to become at least a viable backup.

Instead, could the team be strengthening how the skaters (F and D) play defense and protect the net. They definitely have a long way to go from giving up a ton of shots each game especially of the "high danger area" variety.

In other words, if the goalies aren’t strong enough to bail out the team then do the opposite: have the team bail out the goalies. The team needs to learn how to do that anyway even if the goalies are strong.

- Theo Fox

Does anybody have Subban's numbers for the stretch where Fluery was injured? I've heard that when he was he had several starts, he played better, hut I am curious as to how good his "better" is.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Oct 15 @ 9:17 PM ET
Being one that enjoys drilling down into data I took a look at the numbers (games played, goals, assists, TOI) for each Hawk player last season. Then I projected the numbers for the Hawks this season based on their numbers last season for the players that are still on our roster, plus Wallmark, Janmark, Zadorov. At least offensively, I believe the Hawks offensive numbers will be very comparable. That is without considering any expected increase in production from Dach, a little rebound from ADB, and any contribution from Suter. I did not include Smith either because I do not think he will ever take the ice for the Hawks again. If the offense is about the same I believe the team defense, compete level and physicality will be marginally better with the current roster. Of course the goaltending..... Yikes!!!

The 20 skater roster I used....
(13 forwards) Toews, Strome, Shaw, Dach, Carp, Kampf, Janmark, Wallmark, Kubalik, Nylander, Highmore, Kane, and Debrincat. (I think Suter will make the team, but I did not include him.
(7 defensemen) Keith, Murph, DeHaan, Seabs, Boqvist, Carlsson, Zadorov).

Of course there will be injuries, trades, demotions, promotions. Last year the Hawks dressed 31 different skaters. Saad, Maatta, Q, Sikura, Gus, Beaudin, K4, Gilbert, Wedin, Caggiula, Hagel, Perlini, Smith and Seeler.

Caveat - "Past performance is no guarantee of future results"

LBR, Theo or other posters would you be interested in doing a similar mathematical hypothetical exercise.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Oct 15 @ 9:19 PM ET
Does anybody have Subban's numbers for the stretch where Fluery was injured? I've heard that when he was he had several starts, he played better, hut I am curious as to how good his "better" is.
- tvetter

In 10 games between 11/24/2018 and 12/31/2018, he allowed 23 goals on 265 shots = a save percentage of .913.

He seems to have played well while being well protected by the VGK skaters in front of him.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Oct 15 @ 9:19 PM ET
That leaves about 8 games he was totally out of sync which he was, Covid19 related or not. I'm even willing to say it wasn't all 8 games but he really wasn't very good.
- rpeters01

Crawford would have been fine behind a much better defensive team, though, let's be honest. His workload behind Chicago was one of the highest. Also, he wouldn't even have had to play right away since they had Grubauer, but Crow would have been much better than the 30 yo unknown they had as a backup playing in his first NHL season.

Colorado was the better team vs Dallas so they really didn't need much of an edge and even a coming-off-being-sick Crawford would have put them over them and likely Vegas. Lightning though who knows.
tazer_and_diet
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 10.29.2012

Oct 15 @ 9:48 PM ET
There was nothing positive on the goaltender moves. I posted the entire section.

Unless one of the 3 plays much better than they have to this point in their careers, the Blackhawks will have the worst goaltending in the NHL next season.

- scottak


Who cares? They aren't going to with the cup with a good goalie.

All having Crow/Lehner bail them out over the past few seasons has gotten them is worse draft position.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Oct 15 @ 9:57 PM ET
No one really knows what Wirtz is worth since a lot of his information is not public.
- Elbows15


FWIW. Magazine article from 2 years ago put him at 4.2 billion.

https://www.businessinsid...l-franchise-owners-2018-3
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Oct 15 @ 10:02 PM ET
No way with such a physical game will they get 2 games in over 3-4 days and contain the virus like the naturally distanced and outdoor baseball. I’m sure the NHL is staying up to date on accurate rapid testing technology developments.

As for the goalie situation, it’s not going to be pretty even with better D. Management is probably looking forward to some high draft picks.

And for a goalie that didn’t play for months, get covid, and immediately return to take on high seed teams in the playoffs. Crow played great as he always did.

- TheDrumonMadison

I wasn't the only one critical of his play...
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Oct 15 @ 10:30 PM ET
FWIW. Magazine article from 2 years ago put him at 4.2 billion.

https://www.businessinsid...l-franchise-owners-2018-3

- boilermaker100

Just wait until the “fair tax” gets to him.
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Oct 15 @ 10:31 PM ET
Indy.
- HawkintheD

If he’s lucky
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Oct 15 @ 10:35 PM ET
Does anybody have Subban's numbers for the stretch where Fluery was injured? I've heard that when he was he had several starts, he played better, hut I am curious as to how good his "better" is.
- tvetter

In addition to what STL shared, there's also this article:

https://www.secondcityhoc...s-golden-knights-analysis
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Oct 15 @ 11:30 PM ET
Crawford would have been fine behind a much better defensive team, though, let's be honest. His workload behind Chicago was one of the highest. Also, he wouldn't even have had to play right away since they had Grubauer, but Crow would have been much better than the 30 yo unknown they had as a backup playing in his first NHL season.

Colorado was the better team vs Dallas so they really didn't need much of an edge and even a coming-off-being-sick Crawford would have put them over them and likely Vegas. Lightning though who knows.

- L_B_R




Also one of the roughest as the hawks rarely cleared the crease and he got leaned on constantly. No stats for that.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Oct 16 @ 12:05 AM ET
Also one of the roughest as the hawks rarely cleared the crease and he got leaned on constantly. No stats for that.
- 6628

Any player that doesn't hit back - with the money they make and not a lot of them get this coin for a long time_- protect yourself and hit back. Don't be a weak p*ssy or too scared. Be a man have respect. You don't have to fight but you are stupid if you don't stand up for yourself. I'm not talking about being a tough guy or fighting; rather, just play hard and dish out what you receive. There is only a handful of elite skill stars who almost never commit a check (as in leading with your shoulder). I cannot fathom anyone who can look in the mirror and never hit back. Totally disgusting. Weak.

ADD Yes I know Toews regularly was mugged all the time . He was like the Ever ready bunny commercial gets a beating keeps on ticking. You think he could have hit back more. Maybe. But he was the consumate pro. His body cannot take such punishment nowadays so he changed his style. Nonetheless,, there are times in a season or a game where he is mucking it up as in old days. Although now he is not as bulky or strong as he used to be. Bulked up, gained strength after turning pro but now he just wants to concentrate on skating well and contributing offensively by relying more on a speed game than previously. I am sure if he had to, he would will himself to play as long as he could possibly humanely accomplish.
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Oct 16 @ 4:22 AM ET
There was nothing positive on the goaltender moves. I posted the entire section.

Unless one of the 3 plays much better than they have to this point in their careers, the Blackhawks will have the worst goaltending in the NHL next season.

- scottak


Yes that's possible. I meant there was more to the article regarding the other moves (Zadorov, Janmark, Wallmark) and it was actually pretty positive.

Nikita Zadorov

The Blackhawks acquired Zadorov along with Anton Lindholm from the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for Brandon Saad and Dennis Gilbert. The 25-year-old Zadorov is on a one-year, $3.2 million contract.

Eastern Conference executive: “The thing with Zadorov, I got some time for him. He’s a 5-6 defenseman, for sure. That’s what he should be playing. He’s a big body, but he doesn’t always use it. Sometimes he’ll try to throw a big hit and will take himself out of the play. But he doesn’t use his big body as much as you would hope. That’s my thing.”

Western Conference scout: “Zadorov is expected to be a middle-pair D-man. Huge, can skate, hit and handle the puck. Someone (in the front office) has wanted Z for a few years now.”

Eastern Conference scout: “I like Zadorov. I thought he was overshadowed in Colorado. If you’re going with Zadorov over (Slater) Koekkoek, I would say, OK. I used to think he was slow, but he’s improved his skating. If he’s playing confident, he can play well.”
HawkintheD
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Sick Bay, MI
Joined: 02.22.2012

Oct 16 @ 7:20 AM ET
Also from The Athletic...

Mattias Janmark

The Blackhawks signed Janmark to a one-year, $2.25 million contract. Janmark played for the Dallas Stars last season.
Western Conference scout: “I like Janmark. He’s a good defensive forward. He has a big lower body. He’ll be solid, kill penalties, that type of thing. He’s not going to give you any offense at all, very limited. I think that was a good move, good signing. I’m OK with that.”

Eastern Conference scout: “For me, Janmark was better in the playoffs than the regular season. We looked at him in free agency. We were worried about his knee going forward. He’s a third-liner at best. For me, there are other guys who play that role and are faster.”

Lucas Wallmark

The Blackhawks signed Wallmark to a one-year, $950,000 contract. He played for the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers last season.

The consensus among Eastern Conference talent evaluators is Wallmark is a sneaky-good acquisition. He gets overlooked because he’s slow and he’s not particularly big or physical, but he makes up for that with his smarts, his passing ability and his outstanding work ethic. He darn near saved the Hurricanes’ season in 2018-19 when he ably moved from third-line center to second-line center when Jordan Staal was sidelined for two months with an injury.

“He’s gotten better offensively every year,” one scout said. “There’s more there.”
Western Conference scout: “I’m a huge fan of his. Not the quickest guy, but he has tremendous hockey sense, high IQ. His IQ offsets his lack of footspeed, so he anticipates the play extremely well. He can certainly kill penalties. I think he can be one of their bottom-6 centers.”

Eastern Conference scout: “This is a great signing. We were definitely considering him. I like the kid. He’s really smart, excellent IQ, excellent on the PK. His versatility is phenomenal. He can play anywhere in the lineup for you. At that cap number, that’s a great signing.”
Assman22
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Francisco, CA
Joined: 04.13.2012

Oct 16 @ 9:54 AM ET
Crawford would have been fine behind a much better defensive team, though, let's be honest. His workload behind Chicago was one of the highest. Also, he wouldn't even have had to play right away since they had Grubauer, but Crow would have been much better than the 30 yo unknown they had as a backup playing in his first NHL season.

Colorado was the better team vs Dallas so they really didn't need much of an edge and even a coming-off-being-sick Crawford would have put them over them and likely Vegas. Lightning though who knows.

- L_B_R

Agreed. And people forget Crow took over as a rookie and played 57 games in his first reg season. Had a better defense than any of these 3 will see in front of them this season however. To me, Lankinen is the one you move forward with at 1A. Curious as to your and Theo’s thoughts on this?
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Oct 16 @ 10:00 AM ET
Agreed. And people forget Crow took over as a rookie and played 57 games in his first reg season. Had a better defense than any of these 3 will see in front of them this season however. To me, Lankinen is the one you move forward with at 1A. Curious as to your and Theo’s thoughts on this?
- Assman22



My guess Delia because of Coliton's "familiarity" with him. Just spitballing here, but I can still see MAF in a Hawk uniform. I think Vegas is bluffing (see what I did there) about willing to keep $12M dollars of salary just for goaltenders. Probably the Hawks cash in the Krueger "futures consideration" ticket stub.
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