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Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: Formulaic Structure
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StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Oct 16 @ 12:47 PM ET
I don’t like Florida, or Arizona for that matter, but I’m not sure that being in the Chicago area is worth the added expense anymore.
- Ogilthorpe2

Perhaps - if the balance of payments between the states and the federal government were more balanced - that is, the difference between the amounts of federal taxes paid by the states and the amount of federal expenditures paid to the states - IL taxes wouldn't be so high.

These are based on 2017 numbers.

Illinois had a negative balance of payments of $14.8 billion - $1,158 per capita. Consistently, Illinois receives back about $.97 for every $1 paid to the federal government.

Perhaps not so strangely, the 6 states with the most negative balance of payments are "blue" states: NJ, MA, CN, NY, IL, MN.

The states with the most positive balance of payments - mainly southern and western: NM, WV, MS, VA, AL, MD, ME, AK, HA, KY, SC, LA, OK, Arkansas....

Let's even all of that out and see who needs to increase or decrease state taxes.

(This information is from various sources. Look it up on Google.)

BTW: The current administration has denied federal aid to CA for the wildfires they have been experiencing this summer. You can be sure that there will be federal aid to states hurt by hurricanes - southern, mostly red.
Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Oct 16 @ 12:53 PM ET
I have traveled there as my work has an office in Ft. Mill SC. but it is just growing like mad there, streets cannot handle the population growth.
- powerenforcer

Well the Chicago area population is shrinking, and the streets still can’t handle the traffic.
vabeachbear
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Ft Courage - out in the middle of Indian Country, NC
Joined: 10.17.2011

Oct 16 @ 12:59 PM ET
Well the Chicago area population is shrinking, and the streets still can’t handle the traffic.
- Ogilthorpe2

Ogilthorpe2
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: 37,000 FT
Joined: 07.09.2009

Oct 16 @ 12:59 PM ET
Perhaps - if the balance of payments between the states and the federal government were more balanced - that is, the difference between the amounts of federal taxes paid by the states and the amount of federal expenditures paid to the states - IL taxes wouldn't be so high.

These are based on 2017 numbers.

Illinois had a negative balance of payments of $14.8 billion - $1,158 per capita. Consistently, Illinois receives back about $.97 for every $1 paid to the federal government.

Perhaps not so strangely, the 6 states with the most negative balance of payments are "blue" states: NJ, MA, CN, NY, IL, MN.

The states with the most positive balance of payments - mainly southern and western: NM, WV, MS, VA, AL, MD, ME, AK, HA, KY, SC, LA, OK, Arkansas....

Let's even all of that out and see who needs to increase or decrease state taxes.

(This information is from various sources. Look it up on Google.)

BTW: The current administration has denied federal aid to CA for the wildfires they have been experiencing this summer. You can be sure that there will be federal aid to states hurt by hurricanes - southern, mostly red.

- StLBravesFan

If the federal government didn’t spend billions of dollars on things it has no constitutional right to spend money on, we could slash everyone’s federal taxes, the states could fend more for themselves, and the primary tax burden would be based on whatever the local population feels is necessary/prudent, and a much higher percentage of each citizens total taxes paid could be spent locally on the things that most directly effect those people.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Oct 16 @ 1:15 PM ET
If you haven't noticed the Kraken blogger is writing a series guessing who Seattle will take from each team in the expansion draft. He's listing the teams alphabetically and is doing Buffalo today. He should get around to Chicago next week.

My guess it will be a Hawk defenseman.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Oct 16 @ 1:25 PM ET
This may have been answered here before. Kubalik will be completing his 2nd NHL season this year, so is he exempt from the draft and can be left unprotected, or do his pro years in Europe count toward years of service?
kmw4631
Location: CHICAGO
Joined: 02.27.2015

Oct 16 @ 1:28 PM ET
This may have been answered here before. Kubalik will be completing his 2nd NHL season this year, so is he exempt from the draft and can be left unprotected, or do his pro years in Europe count toward years of service?
- boilermaker100


exempt.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Oct 16 @ 1:30 PM ET
Mangiapane extends with Calgary 2 years at 2.245M. CGY with 4M in cap space and has to sign 5 or 6 more players to fill out their roster.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Oct 16 @ 1:34 PM ET
exempt.
- kmw4631


Thanks
BetweenTheDots
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 06.13.2015

Oct 16 @ 1:34 PM ET
Leaving California like droves. Looks like I will follow my boss and be a Las Vegas resident soon. Rents are down 44% in San Francisco. It is not just the taxes, increased crime, decreased public services, poor public school system.
- LAHawk


I wonder how many of those people are the ones that live on the pacific? I read somewhere even though people are leaving the population isn't decreasing because of births alone.
zm333
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 05.25.2018

Oct 16 @ 1:38 PM ET
Mangiapane extends with Calgary 2 years at 2.245M. CGY with 4M in cap space and has to sign 5 or 6 more players to fill out their roster.
- boilermaker100


With Calgary being that tight to the cap, is there anyone that makes sense for Chicago from a trade perspective? I wouldn't mind swapping a Carpenter or similar player bottom 6er (with a pick) for Sam Bennett. It would save the Flames about $1.5-2M in cap and continue Stan's love for former first round picks.




Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Oct 16 @ 1:40 PM ET
Perhaps - if the balance of payments between the states and the federal government were more balanced - that is, the difference between the amounts of federal taxes paid by the states and the amount of federal expenditures paid to the states - IL taxes wouldn't be so high.

These are based on 2017 numbers.

Illinois had a negative balance of payments of $14.8 billion - $1,158 per capita. Consistently, Illinois receives back about $.97 for every $1 paid to the federal government.

Perhaps not so strangely, the 6 states with the most negative balance of payments are "blue" states: NJ, MA, CN, NY, IL, MN.

The states with the most positive balance of payments - mainly southern and western: NM, WV, MS, VA, AL, MD, ME, AK, HA, KY, SC, LA, OK, Arkansas....

Let's even all of that out and see who needs to increase or decrease state taxes.

(This information is from various sources. Look it up on Google.)

BTW: The current administration has denied federal aid to CA for the wildfires they have been experiencing this summer. You can be sure that there will be federal aid to states hurt by hurricanes - southern, mostly red.

- StLBravesFan


Is this the federal taxes paid by the citizens of the state as compared to the Fed gov expenditures to the state as an entity?

If so, that is easily explained as the majority of the 1% reside in either coastal areas, or urban centers. Also, what are the Fed expenditures going to (serious question, as I have never looked into it)?

Re CA: California should get as little Fed assistance as possible. It is a horribly run state with by far the highest tax revenue in the country. CA takes in 3X the tax revenue of TX with only 30% more people (at least those were the last numbers I saw) and they still can't figure it out. I would have more sympathy for CA handling the wildfires if there weren't so many stupid rules in place that restrict preventative measures.



L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Oct 16 @ 1:44 PM ET
If you haven't noticed the Kraken blogger is writing a series guessing who Seattle will take from each team in the expansion draft. He's listing the teams alphabetically and is doing Buffalo today. He should get around to Chicago next week.

My guess it will be a Hawk defenseman.

- boilermaker100

I'd guess that the Hawks will likely ask Seabrook to waive his NMC so they can protect a different d-man. And he might do it - if he doesn't want to go, he'll be pretty safe because no way anyone grabs him with a sweetener of which the Hawks have little to none OR he does get picked and moves closer to home.

The Hawks could also go with protecting 4F-4D if they need instead of 7F-3D because they don't have that many forwards currently worth protecting / that need protecting.

So it'll be 3-4 of Keith, Murphy, De Haan, Zadorov, Seabrook, and Carlsson. Guys like Boqvist, Mitchell, and Beaudin are exempt.

Then Toews, Kane, and Debrincat for sure and I guess 1-4 of Stome, Nylander, and/or whoever else is here. If Janmark, Wallmark, Highmore, or Hagel are great for the Hawks and signed, then maybe them, or if Shaw is healthy possibly him. Guys like Kubalik, Dach, Kurashev and more are exempt.
L_B_R
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.23.2014

Oct 16 @ 1:45 PM ET
This may have been answered here before. Kubalik will be completing his 2nd NHL season this year, so is he exempt from the draft and can be left unprotected, or do his pro years in Europe count toward years of service?
- boilermaker100

Check out CapFriendly's interactive Seattle draft - it'll show who is exempt and more.

https://www.capfriendly.c...m/expansion-draft/seattle
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Oct 16 @ 1:48 PM ET
If you haven't noticed the Kraken blogger is writing a series guessing who Seattle will take from each team in the expansion draft. He's listing the teams alphabetically and is doing Buffalo today. He should get around to Chicago next week.

My guess it will be a Hawk defenseman.

- boilermaker100


And Theo is setting the restrictions on who is protected or not. Come on Theo, find a way to get them to take Smith!
Angotti
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2019

Oct 16 @ 1:57 PM ET
That’s my plan.
- Ogilthorpe2

In the middle of completing that plan, just bought a house in SW Florida, see you Illinois.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Oct 16 @ 2:00 PM ET
I'd guess that the Hawks will likely ask Seabrook to waive his NMC so they can protect a different d-man. And he might do it - if he doesn't want to go, he'll be pretty safe because no way anyone grabs him with a sweetener of which the Hawks have little to none OR he does get picked and moves closer to home.

The Hawks could also go with protecting 4F-4D if they need instead of 7F-3D because they don't have that many forwards currently worth protecting / that need protecting.

So it'll be 3-4 of Keith, Murphy, De Haan, Zadorov, Seabrook, and Carlsson. Guys like Boqvist, Mitchell, and Beaudin are exempt.

Then Toews, Kane, and Debrincat for sure and I guess 1-4 of Stome, Nylander, and/or whoever else is here. If Janmark, Wallmark, Highmore, or Hagel are great for the Hawks and signed, then maybe them, or if Shaw is healthy possibly him. Guys like Kubalik, Dach, Kurashev and more are exempt.

- L_B_R


Good stuff LBR and thanks for the capfriendly link.

Back to Seabs... i agree he probably won't be picked if he's exposed. Wonder if he does waive his NMC, he'll ask as a pro quid quo not to be bought out in the future.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Oct 16 @ 2:04 PM ET
Well it's either that or they raise everyone's taxes.
- BetweenTheDots


I was about to agree, but then I re-read your post. I thought you said "well, it's that AND they raise everyone's taxes."......
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Oct 16 @ 2:06 PM ET

Don't know if you saw the story in The Athletic about how scouting will be different this season.

Anyways this scouting for the evaluation for NHL teams or whether it is wiz or whomever......it appears that there will be less games and therefore a smaller data base of either tape in actually watching games
.
Somewhere somehow at least one smart GM will be looking at all the angles. I really have no clue if Bowman would try to trade for a second #1 2021 but I could imagine there are ways to extract an additional #1

Just hope that you have done a good job scoutig

- jhawk59


Funny you bring this up, 59, and a good post by the way. I just sent Wiz an article with the purpose of basically showing how the ecosystem of amateur hockey has been rocked due to the pandemic and that how Wiz, his peers and the the NHL will have to adapt their scouting. https://www.brainerddispa...ptions-for-high-schoolers

For those that don't follow in a nutshell:

You have 2 USHL teams that have gone dark this year...3 NAHL teams...dozens of players who would be in college playing are putting college off a year or even returning to juniors after playing last year in NCAA. Players normally headed to BCHL, AJHL, OJHL, etc etc are not able to get over the border. This is having a big trickle down effect on every league.

It will make the USHL very strong this year, it will make the NAHL even stronger...probably make the biggest impact for NCDC...I have seen really bloated rosters at the NAHL and NCDC levels but it definitely is a year that has limited opportunity to play junior hockey at the Tier I, Tier II and NCDC levels in the US for high school students especially...leagues are likely a little older.

Here is where an NHL team can strike gold in the draft. Like a good politician or capitalist, never let a tragedy go by unexploited. .......... This is the best chance, maybe ever, to find kids where you never found that kind of talent cuz as I pointed out rosters where their talent would normally have them are bloated for the above reasons and they are playing at a lower level.

You may find a kid in rd 5-6-7 in the NA3HL, HS or even the NCDC that is missed by other franchises cuz normally he'd be in the USHL or BCHL. .......... If I'm an NHL owner I expand my scouting staff, not cut it, for the reasons I pointed out. One found middle 6 kid who is a 50 point player in 4 yrs pays for that expanded scouting staff 50 x over.
powerenforcer
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Wheeling, IL
Joined: 09.24.2009

Oct 16 @ 2:08 PM ET
I was about to agree, but then I re-read your post. I thought you said "well, it's that AND they raise everyone's taxes."......
- mohel



But they will. Don't you know what that bill will allow? Nobody should vote "Yes" to that.
Angotti
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2019

Oct 16 @ 2:08 PM ET
With Calgary being that tight to the cap, is there anyone that makes sense for Chicago from a trade perspective? I wouldn't mind swapping a Carpenter or similar player bottom 6er (with a pick) for Sam Bennett. It would save the Flames about $1.5-2M in cap and continue Stan's love for former first round picks.
- zm333

I would go for that as well, unfortunately I don’t think the Hawks want to take on anymore salary at this time.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Oct 16 @ 2:13 PM ET
And Theo is setting the restrictions on who is protected or not. Come on Theo, find a way to get them to take Smith!
- Chunk


Dont have to worry about Smith. His contract will he over by the time of the draft.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Oct 16 @ 2:18 PM ET
Does anybody have Subban's numbers for the stretch where Fluery was injured? I've heard that when he was he had several starts, he played better, hut I am curious as to how good his "better" is.
- tvetter


Going by the eye test I just was never a fan of Subban but looking at this stretch of hockey it might be his best when he played as the #1 while MAF was down. Click on the Game Log tab:

https://frozenpool.dobber...om/players/malcolm-subban
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Oct 16 @ 2:18 PM ET
I'm in North, really like it, but would probably do South if I was starting again.

Pilot wise, close to CLT is probably convenient.

- vabeachbear

Booming near the lakes, we live in Mooresville, love Davidson which is small and expensive. For CLT Concord is the spot. Close to Uptown main hospital and theaters (what's that), many doctors living in Concord. Why are flights out of CLT so crazy high? Double NOVA where we moved from. Charlotte climate is fantastic if you like hot weather which I do, my wife not so much. Taxes, what taxes? Roads are crowded...
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Oct 16 @ 2:22 PM ET
Perhaps - if the balance of payments between the states and the federal government were more balanced - that is, the difference between the amounts of federal taxes paid by the states and the amount of federal expenditures paid to the states - IL taxes wouldn't be so high.

These are based on 2017 numbers.

Illinois had a negative balance of payments of $14.8 billion - $1,158 per capita. Consistently, Illinois receives back about $.97 for every $1 paid to the federal government.

Perhaps not so strangely, the 6 states with the most negative balance of payments are "blue" states: NJ, MA, CN, NY, IL, MN.

The states with the most positive balance of payments - mainly southern and western: NM, WV, MS, VA, AL, MD, ME, AK, HA, KY, SC, LA, OK, Arkansas....

Let's even all of that out and see who needs to increase or decrease state taxes.

(This information is from various sources. Look it up on Google.)

BTW: The current administration has denied federal aid to CA for the wildfires they have been experiencing this summer. You can be sure that there will be federal aid to states hurt by hurricanes - southern, mostly red.

- StLBravesFan



The states pay federal income tax?

I assume you mean the residents of the state pay the feds. If so, how does that affect the state's budget? Why does it take more of a citizen's money for Illinois to operate than it does for Indiana (I'm referring to total state and local taxes paid, not simply income tax)?

Perhaps the problem with the states you mention is that they are poorly run?
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