seriously though, I get that there is still plenty of time from now till next season but with so many teams up against the cap how is Tampa supposed to move out salary?

no one is interested ( rightfully so ) in Tyler Johnson with how his contract looks.
- Ross77

I find Tampa's cap situation particularly intriguing. If Stamkos isn't LTIR then they have some real-world problems. At least they got to raise the cup.

100% Benny. I've coached, play three times a week (...or did until Coovid hit) and watch every Jet game (plus other NHL games). Advanced stats are a tool but are not at all gospel. Various opponent line matchups alone can throw the most advanced stats right out the window. So can a bad linemate or a less than optimum defensive pairing. Winning or losing a faceoff inside the zone is another big factor on both sides of the ice. Even the score in the game can also have an effect on the stats.

It only a tool. Very often I see a player play a great game and then look at the advanced stats after and it tells a very different story. The eye test is always correct. Advanced stats are definitely not.
- jetsnation

Wow you sound like quite the athlete!

Wow you sound like quite the athlete!
- TheUltimateJet

I swear to god, these guys just make up stuff to take issue with. It’s so weird. They’re attacking straw men like their all flying monkeys

What the hell was that comment about “-4 blah blah” or whatever?

Nope. I'm in the Jets regional broadcast zone. Watch as many games as I can (close to 50% I'd say). Don't have twitter, just a set of eyes that see what is happening. So these observations are created my opinions, not social media. I also golf with some of the trainers who may provide some insight after a few soda's. I was lucky enough to get a very detailed play-by-play in the Scheiff vs Lowry fight.

Anyway, I would like to see the stats on Scheiff's poorer defensive performance. I am pretty sure that is not the case. Nonetheless, when does Laine jump over the boards? Chances are it is NEVER in the defensive zone. Offensive zone faceoffs, absolutely. That is just coaching 101 tho. Fear not Rexy, if/when he is moved, Chevy will very likely come out of the trade as the victor.
- bikeguy99

What is your point here?
-You have insight into a discussion that isn’t being had, and that you haven’t shared
-You are admitting you have not looked into Scheifele’s defensive performance in any capacity
-You are mentioning Laine’s zone deployment as evidence of... what exactly? If you’re trying to make a commentary on his defensive play, I would recommend not using the decision making of a coach with a notoriously bad defensive system

There are some who think that advanced stats are better than the eye test. I am not one of them. Some people can find some obscure stat to back up any comment that they make. I am not one of them. I base my comments on what I see and on decades of watching hockey. I really do not care what Laine's shooting percentage is on Fridays when the temperature is warmer than -4 C.
- bennythehat

The stats are only obscure because you aren’t paying attention.
You’re basically discarding unbiased statistical evidence in favour of your flawed and limited view. And I don’t mean that as an insult, we all have that issue as humans.
Which is why some of us seek out information outside of what we can see on our televisions.

But that last line there, oh boy, that makes no sense

100% Benny. I've coached, play three times a week (...or did until Coovid hit) and watch every Jet game (plus other NHL games). Advanced stats are a tool but are not at all gospel. Various opponent line matchups alone can throw the most advanced stats right out the window. So can a bad linemate or a less than optimum defensive pairing. Winning or losing a faceoff inside the zone is another big factor on both sides of the ice. Even the score in the game can also have an effect on the stats.

It only a tool. Very often I see a player play a great game and then look at the advanced stats after and it tells a very different story. The eye test is always correct. Advanced stats are definitely not.
- jetsnation

You’re defending the thing you think you’re attacking.

The point you’re making about optimal line matchups, line mates, and deployment screwing with the numbers is exactly the point everyone is making about why Laine, Copp, Connor, etc. are all miscast.

The stats are only obscure because you aren’t paying attention.
You’re basically discarding unbiased statistical evidence in favour of your flawed and limited view. And I don’t mean that as an insult, we all have that issue as humans.
Which is why some of us seek out information outside of what we can see on our televisions.

But that last line there, oh boy, that makes no sense
- Rexypoo

This is the classic mistake that proponents of analytics always make. They think in the end that there is no bias in the stats. In the end, there certainly is. All any of those stats can tell you is what happens on the ice when that player is on the ice. They can't tell you anything specific to that player isolated from any of the other players, opponent or teammate. From that unbiased statistical evidence, an analysis needs to be made. That analysis is often flawed and biased. Use as a tool and a small part of analyzing a player or a team. However, give it too much weight and it becomes a problem. Until these flawed and mediocre stats get much, much better, the qualified eye is always the better method.

Here is my take on hockey analytics.
The whole concept started in baseball. Completely different game than hockey.
Batter hits or he doesn't. Pitchers pitch well or they don't. It's on them as individuals.
Pitcher throws a great pitch and the catcher lets it get by him, it's an error on the catcher.
Hockey is much more of a team sport. Everything that a player does right or wrong is affected by what his teammates on the ice are or are not doing at that time.
If Laine misses the net, maybe it's because the pass wasn't in his wheelhouse. If Wheeler can't exit the zone, maybe it's because Connor isn't where he should be.
It's not black or white.
Hockey is not baseball.

Here is my take on hockey analytics.
The whole concept started in baseball. Completely different game than hockey.
Batter hits or he doesn't. Pitchers pitch well or they don't. It's on them as individuals.
Pitcher throws a great pitch and the catcher lets it get by him, it's an error on the catcher.
Hockey is much more of a team sport. Everything that a player does right or wrong is affected by what his teammates on the ice are or are not doing at that time.
If Laine misses the net, maybe it's because the pass wasn't in his wheelhouse. If Wheeler can't exit the zone, maybe it's because Connor isn't where he should be.
It's not black or white.
Hockey is not baseball.
- bennythehat

Love baseball and watching it. However it is getting to be more of a pain in the back-side.

Stats for everything! "Batter hits .300 against a pitcher who throws a 95 MPH when there's a cloud over the sun after 7 p.m. on week day nights" etc. Who the frig cares?

Hockey is getting more like that unfortunately. Going to miss Doc Emrick, one of the best. Love the Jets' Dennis Beyak as well, but seems to be giving us more of these irrelevant stats every year. Hate it as well when he says a player is on "a two game scoring streak." Two games!!!

Here is my take on hockey analytics.
The whole concept started in baseball. Completely different game than hockey.
Batter hits or he doesn't. Pitchers pitch well or they don't. It's on them as individuals.
Pitcher throws a great pitch and the catcher lets it get by him, it's an error on the catcher.
Hockey is much more of a team sport. Everything that a player does right or wrong is affected by what his teammates on the ice are or are not doing at that time.
If Laine misses the net, maybe it's because the pass wasn't in his wheelhouse. If Wheeler can't exit the zone, maybe it's because Connor isn't where he should be.
It's not black or white.
Hockey is not baseball.
- bennythehat

you are correct that it is not black and white and its also always evolving.

Analytics absolutely have value!!! no question about this.

they show consistencies that hope to answer your questions of one off's. if a player is never able to get the puck out of zone no matter who he's on the ice with you can not blame the others on the ice equally when said players results are the same no matter who he plays with. there is value in this

now this is the most important point to me, that frustrates me to no end. it seems ALL analytics guys will admit its not the be all end all and only a tool that should be used and I agree with this whole heartedly!!! BUT when you argue with them about a certain player they will point to the analytics and bang that specific drum as loud as they can as the sole reason they are right. you can not say its only a tool and that you don't see it as the be all end all but then use it as your sole defense in an argument.

There are some who think that advanced stats are better than the eye test. I am not one of them. Some people can find some obscure stat to back up any comment that they make. I am not one of them. I base my comments on what I see and on decades of watching hockey. I really do not care what Laine's shooting percentage is on Fridays when the temperature is warmer than -4 C.
- bennythehat

I agree. Advanced stats do not take in a variety of circumstances. Hockey is a game of instinct, and taking gambles at the right times. Some of the best shutdown D and Centres in the game go unrecognized, while absolute liabilities line the highlight reels. There is a place for advanced stats for sure, but I'd go by my eyes over the underlying numbers any day.

The best scouts in the NHL certainly do not stay at home and stare at numbers. They watch the kids and assess the players they think they can become based on their hockey iq, and physical factors. I really liked hearing that on the previous Spittin Chicklets pod, where Bowness said his favourite tactic in scouting was to watch how the kids interacted with their parents after the game. Were they good kids? Were they bratts towards their parents if things didn't go their way? It was an interesting take, and you can tell that he is a guy that doesn't mess around with immature players. So many factors that can't be seen in a pile of numbers on a computer screen.

I am learning more and more about underlying stats and numbers and do appreciate them. but I also argue with the all in folks quite often as well.

here is one of my takes that I love to debate.
I am not a Jake Gardiner fan, not at all but the analytics crowd loves him based on his underlying numbers. this is how I can best describe this. imagine jay walking 1000 times a year, this is a crime and analytics would show negatively towards this. now Jake Gardiner never jay walks but commits murder three times a year, only 3 crimes but far worse by my "eye test" but going by underlying numbers Gardiner is the better player based on far less overall crimes. it can not weight the crime.

Does Drew Doughty? Or Brent Seabrook?

Guys who used to be good never know they aren’t anymore.
- Rexypoo

Dude I'm sorry but Drew Doughty is still elite, it's just that other than kopi, the rest of the team is terrible.

All great points and analogies on advanced stats vs the eye-test by Ross, Benny, MJL and Bikeguy ( and most other board members). It's pretty clear that the "eye test" is hands down, clearly the best way to evaluate a player. Analytics is just a tool. I'm not sure why this is really even a debate but yet I've seen a lot of non-debatable topics on here somehow get into heated debates.

All great points and analogies on advanced stats vs the eye-test by Ross, Benny, MJL and Bikeguy ( and most other board members). It's pretty clear that the "eye test" is hands down, clearly the best way to evaluate a player. Analytics is just a tool. I'm not sure why this is really even a debate but yet I've seen a lot of non-debatable topics on here somehow get into heated debates.
- jetsnation

So what happens when 2 people use the eye test on a player and come up with different conclusions? Who is right?

Jake Virtanen signs 2 ys at $2.55MM AAV . Possibly this is another comparative for Roslovic.

So what happens when 2 people use the eye test on a player and come up with different conclusions? Who is right?
- BWJumper

I agree with you, but there also many available analytics that show players under very different lights so which underlying models do you use? they all use a varying degree of guesswork

So what happens when 2 people use the eye test on a player and come up with different conclusions? Who is right?
- BWJumper

Do you think that everyone using analytics comes to the same conclusion on players?

So what happens when 2 people use the eye test on a player and come up with different conclusions? Who is right?
- BWJumper

Ten people can stare at a piece of art and draw all different conclusions. The same might be true for a rock or just about anything. Silly question IMHO

So what happens when 2 people use the eye test on a player and come up with different conclusions? Who is right?
- BWJumper

I don't think it's uncommon for two scouts to rate a player higher/lower than the other scout.

Probably the head scout would ask for another report, and then gave to make final decision, one way or another. Maybe scout the player himself and decide who he thinks is right?

This is the classic mistake that proponents of analytics always make. They think in the end that there is no bias in the stats. In the end, there certainly is. All any of those stats can tell you is what happens on the ice when that player is on the ice. They can't tell you anything specific to that player isolated from any of the other players, opponent or teammate. From that unbiased statistical evidence, an analysis needs to be made. That analysis is often flawed and biased. Use as a tool and a small part of analyzing a player or a team. However, give it too much weight and it becomes a problem. Until these flawed and mediocre stats get much, much better, the qualified eye is always the better method.
- MJL

In what was is the analysis biased? Elaborate

Dude I'm sorry but Drew Doughty is still elite, it's just that other than kopi, the rest of the team is terrible.
- Udogs

https://twitter.com/jfres.../1264259130157682690?s=21

Sorry, dude

So what happens when 2 people use the eye test on a player and come up with different conclusions? Who is right?
- BWJumper

(The one with statistical evidence)

Ten people can stare at a piece of art and draw all different conclusions. The same might be true for a rock or just about anything. Silly question IMHO
- jetsnation

I don't know sometimes (shakes head). Your whole argument is that the "eye test" is the definitive way of judging a players performance. Yet at the same time anybody can have a different opinion about a player like they do with art.

I agree. Advanced stats do not take in a variety of circumstances. Hockey is a game of instinct, and taking gambles at the right times. Some of the best shutdown D and Centres in the game go unrecognized, while absolute liabilities line the highlight reels. There is a place for advanced stats for sure, but I'd go by my eyes over the underlying numbers any day.

The best scouts in the NHL certainly do not stay at home and stare at numbers. They watch the kids and assess the players they think they can become based on their hockey iq, and physical factors. I really liked hearing that on the previous Spittin Chicklets pod, where Bowness said his favourite tactic in scouting was to watch how the kids interacted with their parents after the game. Were they good kids? Were they bratts towards their parents if things didn't go their way? It was an interesting take, and you can tell that he is a guy that doesn't mess around with immature players. So many factors that can't be seen in a pile of numbers on a computer screen.
- bikeguy99

A: all of the things you’re describing as not being taken into account are, in fact, easily identified and tracked in the results.
B: some of the best players in the league go unrecognized because a lot of teams ignore this information. Do you think Oliver Bjorkstrand is the best player on the Blue Jackets? Because he is.
C: Some scouts absolutely track players this way, but a lot of it has to be done in person. The information just isn’t widely available at lower levels.
D: f*ck barstool and anyone still on board with them.