The Hawks probably need a top 5 pick the next two years to have any chance at moving the needle. Once fans actually come back, are they going to pay today's ticket prices to see that product?
- jrsamu

The plan for the future doesn't seem to be predicated on hoping for top 5 picks to dig them out. Yes, these elite picks would help but we also see that it hasn't really helped the Oilers or Leafs.

Instead, focus developing all prospects, playing the right way, and creating a culture of competing by all players. Top players are great but it takes a team effort to consistently contend.

There is a number. I think I read on here a few years back that it goes from shortest to longest time to develop forwards being the shortest to develop, defense being next and goalies being the longest to develop. I believe in hockey goalies usually hit their strides at 25, defense somewhere around 20-23 and forwards are usually usually 19 or 20, sometimes 21. I know there's information on this.

I think the hawks aren't throwing in the towel, I think what they are discussing is that they are going to try to mimic the Oakland athletics where, when a player gets too expensive they trade them for lots of top quality prospects. But sprinkle in doing everything they can once they get back to the competitiveness to spend to get the cup year after year. The difference is the hawks can spend more as the Oakland athletics spend penny's annually and dont sign anyone above 10M annually.

Just my 2 cents
- Hawk4life

Oakland hasn’t won anything though...

They always get hyped and praised for what they’ve done under Billy Bean and I don’t get it. Bunch of first round exits and sustained above-average level of play. Maybe one or 2 teams over a 20 year span that came close to WS contention.

Pretty lame letter...especially since it is 2 years too late.
Also, the moves Stan has made this year have done NOTHING to bring picks or young talent this way. I said several posts back. Stan seems to be stuck in-between, tinkering to stay competitive, not stripping it right down. LIMBO.

Maybe the REAL purpose of this letter is NOT to the fans....but to Keith, Toews and Kane (Cuz I dont think Seabrook can be traded in any situation). Maybe the REAL purpose is to tell the remaining core...."Hey guys, we gonna suck the next 3-4 years, if you want out lemme know, give me a list of teams, and let's do this."

Seems it is Stan's way of wiping his hands....and putting it on the "core" to see if they rather win elsewhere, or endure the pain as their career winds down.
- hawk35

Although the core and management seem to be on the same page now after there being a disconnect, we'll see how long that lasts.

I'd definitely support all 4 of them staying on board but wouldn't be surprised if at least one of them asks out within the next year. My money is on Keith.

Seabrook next especially if he is relegated to the 6/7 spot.

Toews and Kane are likely to be lifelong Blackhawks, IMO.

Fantastic read, Theo!
Since 2015, the team I've watched didn't have the horses. Even in 2015, it seemed they made it more by force of will, almost every game in the playoffs was one wrongly deflected puck from going south.
Now, I cannot help but envision 88, 2, 19 and 7 as true grizzled veterans benefiting from the up and coming young kids providing THEM energy like they did in 2010.
It's a great time to be an up and coming Blackhawk and I will most certainly be watching.
- 35Tony0

I think the bolded is a selling point to the core. They're needed just as much as the youngsters.

Remember, there was a time after 2015 when the core just seemed out of gas and mailed it in on a regular basis.

Inject some youth to help carry the load and that could give the core wings to lead and play their roles.

Oakland hasn’t won anything though...

They always get hyped and praised for what they’ve done under Billy Bean and I don’t get it. Bunch of first round exits and sustained above-average level of play. Maybe one or 2 teams over a 20 year span that came close to WS contention.
- SimpleJack

Not to dump too much baseball into this, but in the time everyone has been slobbering over Billy Ball, how many World Series did the Giants Win? And the Cubs and White Sox each have more World Series visits in that time span than Oakland - let that resonate for a moment.

Good morning Theo excellent work you've done laying out a great forum to talk about.

I'm not sure if you happened to read the chicago tribune online piece but , imo I thought it summed everything up to a Tee.

Yesterday's letter was long overdue, as a fan it was obvious chicago was trying to rebuild but I think the way they where going about it wasn't healthy to the fans, team or players, people had the sense of being mislead.


A few other points trading for Zadorov imo he is young. Big and hits like a train he at this point replaces maatta but at a cheaper rate with a show me year opportunity.


I also think now that everything is out in the open it was a signal to the core that we tried it your way with bringing back fan favorites like shaw or Saad or sharpie ect and that dog didn't hunt.

This gives them a chance to either fully embrace the direction chicago is going in or waive their nmc
- Taylorst1

I agree with that last part. The public statement to the fanbase and the meeting between the core, Bowman, MacIsaac, and I believe Colliton (?) theoretically presented a more clear direction for everyone involved.

It's now up to the core to decide whether they truly are on board or if they want to ply their trade elsewhere and win with a team that is already contending.

IMO, part of the new direction is stop being loyal to the core if they really are not contributing to the overall plan. It's now publicly state that it's about the team, not the individual.

Thanks Theo - much to think about. My initial reaction while reading your post was "Man, are we a spoiled fanbase". I understand as fans we purchase tickets to see a good product, so we cannot just sit back and let the organization "fail" I don't think they are failing. But sometimes it is nice to watch a game when expectations are lower. There is less stress. I will leave it at this....The sooner the young guys play (who are ready to play from Rockford) the better. Give then a couple seasons in the "A" then let them go in in the big show. If veterans don't like it, find older players who are fine with that and replace them. The Chicago Blackhawks have had a great run for a while, maybe now it it time to change things up.
- powerenforcer

Yes, again, it's about the team now, not the individual. The Blackhawks world doesn't revolve around the core. They are key cogs, without a doubt, but attitude is a critical piece, too.

Confirmed by another team source: there was no better offer available for Saad. Say what you will about Zadorov, but he brings a element that is sorely lacking from the team. He has size, can skate and play well, and has some nasty in his game. I'm not saying he is the second coming, but we don't have that in droves.

I actually agree with the Hawks thinking on Crow. He is not the goalie of the future. If you sign him now, he is the main starter. Whoever is behind him gets a minority of the games, and you still only get a glimpse of what they are. When Crow is finished, you are still basically in the same spot.

What happens if Crow gets injured (a valid concern at this point)? He is then not only untradeable, but taking up cap space.
- Chunk

Then hold Saad until next season's trade deadline, when he will be more valuable as a final piece to a contending team

Good article, Theo.

Unfortunately, your baseball analogy doesn’t seem to work anymore: it’s all or nothing now - HR or K - launch angle, one good swing a game - don’t go the other way against the shift, don’t go up the middle with two strikes....

The hockey equivalent might be the 200 foot player vs. the sniper who can’t / won’t be a factor in the dzone. I don’t think it’s come to that it hockey - I don’t think it will. The sport still values, as you say: the drum that I beat constantly which is for every player to compete hard every shift, contest every puck, and commit to defense in every zone. Doing all three demonstrates the willingness to lay it all on the ice, do the little things that help the team win, and prioritize the team over the individual.

Unfortunately, teams and players won’t have the luxury (and I agree, it should be a necessity for most players, not a luxury) of fully developing in the minors - not with a stagnant hard cap. Used to be - in baseball, the conventional wisdom said a player needed about 1,500 PAs in the minors. There is probably some hockey equivalent.

But the stagnant cap says the parent needs more players on ELCs, bringing them up way before they’re ready. Not good for the player, not good for the team - not good for hockey.
- StLBravesFan

I get what you're saying. It won't be an easy task for any team to bring along prospects to help manage personnel in the flat cap era.

What can help is developing a long-term plan for integrating prospects gradually over time. Bowman admitted that the team won't be all youngsters.

Instead, introduce a few each season. The ones who joined the team the year before will have some experience to build upon.

Eventually, a new nucleus of younger players to build around will form. These will be the new top players as the core either retires or moves on to other pastures.

Dach has already staked his spot in that new nucleus.

So reflecting on the past couple days, is it safe to say McD had a lot more to say about the makeup of the team than some thought? I wonder if it got to the point where Danny said "I am tired of always being in these showcase games and losing". It's time we start making a name for ourselves. We don't need the leagues charity. Or put it another way, we don't want to be the next "lovable losers".

Excellent read, Theo
While Bowman did a nice job of laying out his philosophy on the rebuild in the latest Athletic interview with Powers and Laz, my biggest concern/question is whether Bowman is one to lead such a rebuild. I honestly don't think he has a clue on how to construct a balanced and competitive team but I guess time will tell....
- FourOrr

Part of me is iffy, too, on whether Bowman is the right person to make these decisions. But another part of me has the cautious optimism to wait and see how things unfold.

The public statement and open admission to making mistakes in the past are good first steps. That statement outlined a plan -- albeit in general terms -- so time to stick with that plan.

So now the task is different and if The Core is up for a few more years of a rebuild, he'll need to find talent for them to pass the torch to while they potentially become the depth around the new Core...except for 88 if he's still here.
- HawkintheD

What you said here is one of the best ways I have heard the new plan being articulated.

Again, IMO, the term top players doesn't necessarily mean the core. Maybe it does today but not from here on out.

A new nucleus will develop to become the top players and the core will still be relied upon to lead as veterans and as highly-skilled players.

What I found most striking about Stan's presser, was no Danny Wirtz looking over Stan's shoulder, like McDonough was. It's Stan's team now, Danny has given him the reigns and told him to run with it. I don't know what time period Rocky and Danny have given Stan, but if they feel he has not done the job, they will fire him, but at least they will give the hockey department total say in how the team is constructed.
- LAHawk

Granted we are in a pandemic era where press conferences with all team brass present in the same space is not feasible for the time being, I also think it can't be discounted how the lack of having someone over his shoulder allows Bowman more freedom to operate.

If anyone has ever been micromanaged before (I have), it really sucks. Like a lot. Every move you make is criticized or needs to be approved, even minute details.

If you are trusted to do your job, then many times performance can soar.

Let's hope this is the case for Bowman and anyone else in the organization who may have been hampered by what could have been a suppressing work environment.

Well Theo to me the ones that are upset are the ones who don't understand there are cycles to championship teams. If you don't honor these cycles you become the Red Wings. For those saying it should of happened a couple of years ago? I've got news for you, It Did.

I don't want some floundering bubble team with the illusion of winning a SC let alone a playoff series. Keep the 4 horseman for marketing, ticket sales and mentoring. Let the kids play and coach.
- BetweenTheDots

Agree, there is a lot to be said about the cycle of championship teams, even just the cycle of sports whether the team is good or bad.

Then hold Saad until next season's trade deadline, when he will be more valuable as a final piece to a contending team
- scottak

Probably be less valuable. His name was out there this TDL (before COVID), and obviously no overhwelming offers came, even with a year under control. Stan also had the cap space to retain salary if need be. Saad had the same number of points this year as Brett Connolly, Adam Guadette, Kevin LaBlanc, Roope Hintz, and Jonas Donskoi. Do any of those names scream top level prospect or pick at the trade deadline to you?

People who are unhappy are generally going to be unhappy, no matter the situation,so even though Stan finally put it out there in the press, it was pretty much a given that people would still be unhappy with it.
- HawkintheD

One question that I didn't address in the blog is this one: who was the public statement for?

Diehard fans who live and breathe Blackhawks hockey and talk about it 24/7 are going to have the most visceral reactions.

However, I would venture to say that this breed of fans is in the minority where the vast majority of the fanbase runs the gamut of varying levels of understanding or even caring about the depth of topics that are dissected and argued about by the diehards.

The public statement is for that large proportion of the fanbase, too. I can't imagine most of them are terribly upset. They just want to see hockey again and isn't that the bare bones of what it should be about.

Most GM's in this league are like reckless hunters....shoot first ask questions later. When they haydays were here Stan shot first and threw out hefty long term contracts to basically whoever wanted one because times were good and seemed like they were going to last forever. Now the haydays are gone and with it comes the questions.
I don't think Chicago's management thought these days would come so fast but they are now here and it's a mess to sort through.
Like some other posters mentioned, with a flat cap for the foreseeable future, not many teams can take on money without giving money back. Top that with core players who all have NMC's in there contracts, it could be a long grind for this team for a while.

it is quite clear that a substantial proportion of the fanbase is upset and frustrated with the Blackhawks public statement declaring the state and direction of the team.

What exactly are they upset about? The press release was simply a formality. In his interviews Stan stated numerous times that they want to be more open with the team and the fans.

I don't really understand why people keep complaining about the Saad trade. He is a good player, but he did not put up a ton of points (which is what gets paid in this league). He also had a pretty hefty salary. In return they got a monster defenseman who can actually skate and PLAY THE GAME, for less money. A team soure even said that there wasn't a better offer to be had for him. The team is not going to just put out a bunch of 1-2 yr players out on the ice to skate with the core. Zadorov is only 25 years old (about the time D-men come into their own) with 350 games of experience.

I implore anyone with questions (what direction are they going with this team?, why is X,Y,Z still on the team, etc) to listen to Stan's interviews with Blackhawks Talk or the Athletic. Most of your questions will be answered (maybe not to your liking, but they will be answered).
- Chunk

I would agree that the letter is a formality to be candid with the fanbase and publicly draw lines in the sand.

Also would agree that a lot is learned by watching the various podcast interviews with Bowman from yesterday.

We don't have to agree with what he said. But like you said, a lot of questions are answered.

Theo, I thought your take on this statement was the most compelling:

"...an effort that will require a stockpile of emerging talent to complement our top players"

My initial thought upon reading that in the Hawks press release was that by "top players" they meant the core-4 and that meant that the rebuild wasn't going to go far enough to be as effective as it could be. But after reading your take that it doesn't necessarily mean the core-4, it really opened up a different and better perspective for me.

It may end up being the core-4 stick around because they can't really force them out, but "top players" could mean the new wave of top players, such as Dach and Boqvist, and that tips the press release from "meh" to one of optimism.
- EbonyRaptor

That's the way I see it, too, ER.

Not that I expected specific names to be stated in that public statement but thinking about the team rather than individual players helps to understand what the plan is and how it could theoretically work.

One question that I didn't address in the blog is this one: who was the public statement for?

Diehard fans who live and breathe Blackhawks hockey and talk about it 24/7 are going to have the most visceral reactions.

However, I would venture to say that this breed of fans is in the minority where the vast majority of the fanbase runs the gamut of varying levels of understanding or even caring about the depth of topics that are dissected and argued about by the diehards.

The public statement is for that large proportion of the fanbase, too. I can't imagine most of them are terribly upset. They just want to see hockey again and isn't that the bare bones of what it should be about.
- Theo Fox

Would imagine it is for ALL Hawks fans... the amount of emails I get now about Hawks tickets is through the roof; this team knows that tough times might be coming ahead... rather than BS and push fans out/away, hopefully they are trying to relay to fans that they know the product on ice sucks, and they are trying to change it. Unfortunately, we are going on five years now of this sinking product. As a fan, I would really like to see them go in another direction with a GM. The Cubs, Sox, Bulls, and Bears all have done it in the last decade. One team won a WS; another team is now a serious WS contender; the Bulls management group is fascinating now; and the Bears are much better than they were three years ago.

Stan Bowman did a terrific job maintaining and piecing the 13 and 15 Cup teams; all time expires though, and sadly, I am not sure why the Hawks haven't decided to move on from him and go elsewhere.

Not to dump too much baseball into this, but in the time everyone has been slobbering over Billy Ball, how many World Series did the Giants Win? And the Cubs and White Sox each have more World Series visits in that time span than Oakland - let that resonate for a moment.
- jrsamu

I get that but what the Oakland a do is get to the playoffs regularly, but the hawks are using this model but also saying we will spend at the deadline to win a cup. They are looking to be like the a bu also going the distance year after year while churning players over rather than keeping cores tgether constantly.

it is quite clear that a substantial proportion of the fanbase is upset and frustrated with the Blackhawks public statement declaring the state and direction of the team.

What exactly are they upset about? The press release was simply a formality. In his interviews Stan stated numerous times that they want to be more open with the team and the fans.

I don't really understand why people keep complaining about the Saad trade. He is a good player, but he did not put up a ton of points (which is what gets paid in this league). He also had a pretty hefty salary. In return they got a monster defenseman who can actually skate and PLAY THE GAME, for less money. A team soure even said that there wasn't a better offer to be had for him. The team is not going to just put out a bunch of 1-2 yr players out on the ice to skate with the core. Zadorov is only 25 years old (about the time D-men come into their own) with 350 games of experience.

I implore anyone with questions (what direction are they going with this team?, why is X,Y,Z still on the team, etc) to listen to Stan's interviews with Blackhawks Talk or the Athletic. Most of your questions will be answered (maybe not to your liking, but they will be answered).
- Chunk

Draft choices, especially early round picks, are not available league wide. Players are going for mid to later round picks. And if you acquire someone, is a Saad a one year rental. Made available for expansion. The way teams shape up in civil times, is to draft well. Early picks are now retained not traded. You will see draft choices traded later. .......LATER.......as Kraken outdo the Vegas larceny to accumulate #1.

What the letter doesn't address is, will the Hawks be relevant while Kane, Keith and Keith can still contribute? Pretty obvious that none of the 3 (plus Seabrook) are as good as they were at the peak of their powers.

Keith, Kane and Toews all have 3 years remaining, Seabrook has 4.

I'm pretty sure the Hawks won't be in a Conference Final in the next 3 years. Heck, the young guys are going to have to improve a whole heck of a lot to even make the playoffs in the next 3 years.

Then hold Saad until next season's trade deadline, when he will be more valuable as a final piece to a contending team
- scottak

They did not have the cap flexibility to do so, and there is no guarantee that he would be healthy or bring back a better deal at the TDL. The cap isn't changing.

Okposo, Reinhart, Mitts, Lottery protected 2021 1st and 2022 3rd
for
Kane