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Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: Rebuild the Rebuild
Author Message
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Oct 21 @ 3:19 PM ET
That's the way I see it, too, ER.

Not that I expected specific names to be stated in that public statement but thinking about the team rather than individual players helps to understand what the plan is and how it could theoretically work.

- Theo Fox


You mean like Keith saying," I " should be on the first PP unit. Like Toews saying I want to win, but we can't win without my buddies Saad, and Crow?
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Oct 21 @ 3:22 PM ET
Would imagine it is for ALL Hawks fans... the amount of emails I get now about Hawks tickets is through the roof; this team knows that tough times might be coming ahead... rather than BS and push fans out/away, hopefully they are trying to relay to fans that they know the product on ice sucks, and they are trying to change it. Unfortunately, we are going on five years now of this sinking product. As a fan, I would really like to see them go in another direction with a GM. The Cubs, Sox, Bulls, and Bears all have done it in the last decade. One team won a WS; another team is now a serious WS contender; the Bulls management group is fascinating now; and the Bears are much better than they were three years ago.

Stan Bowman did a terrific job maintaining and piecing the 13 and 15 Cup teams; all time expires though, and sadly, I am not sure why the Hawks haven't decided to move on from him and go elsewhere.

- frafra


Where do you want them to go?
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Oct 21 @ 3:26 PM ET
What the letter doesn't address is, will the Hawks be relevant while Kane, Keith and Keith can still contribute? Pretty obvious that none of the 3 (plus Seabrook) are as good as they were at the peak of their powers.

Keith, Kane and Toews all have 3 years remaining, Seabrook has 4.

I'm pretty sure the Hawks won't be in a Conference Final in the next 3 years. Heck, the young guys are going to have to improve a whole heck of a lot to even make the playoffs in the next 3 years.

- scottak


It's not in the letter, but it has been in all of the interviews. They are going to fill in with young players where they can instead of signing a "cheap vet". Stan repeated multiple times that it is not always going to be perfect. Players will have setbacks, and guys will get sat or demoted, and that is not really an indication that they are giving up on them, but sometimes they just need to regroup.

That basically means that they aren't expecting to be true contenders. It would be great if they were, but that would mean everyone is playing out of their mind.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Oct 21 @ 3:26 PM ET
Okposo, Reinhart, Mitts, Lottery protected 2021 1st and 2022 3rd
for
Kane

- ImThatGuy



As soon as you say Okposo Stan hangs up.
jrsamu
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 11.07.2014

Oct 21 @ 3:28 PM ET
Probably be less valuable. His name was out there this TDL (before COVID), and obviously no overhwelming offers came, even with a year under control. Stan also had the cap space to retain salary if need be. Saad had the same number of points this year as Brett Connolly, Adam Guadette, Kevin LaBlanc, Roope Hintz, and Jonas Donskoi. Do any of those names scream top level prospect or pick at the trade deadline to you?
- LAHawk


Do any of those prospects have two Stanley Cup rings (and played in the top 6 on those cup teams)? It is all about the sale, especially when dealing with a team that is vying for the Cup. And the guy is playing for his next contract. The chances of strong results for one year are very high. I don't doubt that the market was minimal to take on $6 million. Then Stan should have waited - would the return have been less? Or even the same? Table all of that if "money dump" was the impetus.
bhawks2241
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 09.17.2013

Oct 21 @ 3:29 PM ET
The plan for the future doesn't seem to be predicated on hoping for top 5 picks to dig them out. Yes, these elite picks would help but we also see that it hasn't really helped the Oilers or Leafs.

Instead, focus developing all prospects, playing the right way, and creating a culture of competing by all players. Top players are great but it takes a team effort to consistently contend.

- Theo Fox


I actually think the Hawks might be competitive next season. I think Dach will continue to progress and be a legit 2C next year. When was the last time the Hawks had a legitimate 2C?

I think Suter will come in and provide some nice depth scoring. The backend will be improved. I have to think Seabs looks better. He literally couldn't sit down without being in pain or throw a ball to his kid (b/c of his hip and shoulder).

This team did manage to take care of the Oilers and it wasn't because Crow won that series.

Biggest question mark is in goal. Can one of the younger goalies step in and provide a solid option? The Hawks have been good at finding goalies that are NHL caliber.

Janmark and Wallmark are both solid forwards. Can those two fill-in the void left by Saad as far as 2-way play? Perhaps.

I'm excited to see how Kubalik adapts his game after his first season and I expect big things from Dach. He's already shown he knows what to work on to get better.

For better or worse the Hawks need to let Nylander ride in the top 6 all season. Not going to win a cup so might as well see if he sinks or swims.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Oct 21 @ 3:33 PM ET
You mean like Keith saying," I " should be on the first PP unit. Like Toews saying I want to win, but we can't win without my buddies Saad, and Crow?
- LAHawk

Exactly. Pretty poignant examples to illustrate the point.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Oct 21 @ 3:39 PM ET
Oakland hasn’t won anything though...

They always get hyped and praised for what they’ve done under Billy Bean and I don’t get it. Bunch of first round exits and sustained above-average level of play. Maybe one or 2 teams over a 20 year span that came close to WS contention.

- SimpleJack


The amount of dollars spent for wins is pretty efficient. In terms of getting the most production out of a lower dollar amount - pretty good results. I don't know that their expectation is to win a WS but be in the mix and see what happens.

It's also baseball so I'd imagine them being just interesting enough to have fans in the seats while having a modest payroll and collecting league TV dollars puts the owners in a pretty good spot.

It is another area where hockey and baseball aren't really comparable. Hockey doesn't have a robust developmental league where assets and cash can be traded in a meaningfully consistent way. There isn't a lot of room payroll wise for the teams to take on a big contract even if they wanted to. And they are highly dependent on fan attendance, Baseball is not so much with their TV deals.

The Sox got two of the best prospects in Baseball (Eloy and Moncada) by unloading talented pitchers. Adam Eaton (a meh WAR player) got them Giolito who is a staff ace.

There is not a post lockout baseball trade I can think of that has had highly touted prospects being swapped for stars.

At least with the normal playoff format, baseball rewards the best teams with a playoff shot while hockey is more of a free for all. Not to mention there are clear differences between the have have nots of baseball while hockey is 2 or 3 outstanding teams 2 or 3 garbage teams and 25 teams that all look about the same.

The cross sports comparisons and thought process don't work for these leagues.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Oct 21 @ 3:41 PM ET
Sean Maloughney is the HockeyBuzz blogger for the Oilers and now for the Kraken, too. He is doing a mock expansion draft and his blog today features the Blackhawks with my contribution for him to make the selection.

Check it out here:

https://www.hockeybuzz.co...ago-Blackhawks/286/108011
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Oct 21 @ 3:41 PM ET
I actually think the Hawks might be competitive next season. I think Dach will continue to progress and be a legit 2C next year. When was the last time the Hawks had a legitimate 2C?

I think Suter will come in and provide some nice depth scoring. The backend will be improved. I have to think Seabs looks better. He literally couldn't sit down without being in pain or throw a ball to his kid (b/c of his hip and shoulder).

This team did manage to take care of the Oilers and it wasn't because Crow won that series.

Biggest question mark is in goal. Can one of the younger goalies step in and provide a solid option? The Hawks have been good at finding goalies that are NHL caliber.

Janmark and Wallmark are both solid forwards. Can those two fill-in the void left by Saad as far as 2-way play? Perhaps.

I'm excited to see how Kubalik adapts his game after his first season and I expect big things from Dach. He's already shown he knows what to work on to get better.

For better or worse the Hawks need to let Nylander ride in the top 6 all season. Not going to win a cup so might as well see if he sinks or swims.

- bhawks2241


I agree. I was thinking (I will probably be booed off this board again), that if (or when) Strome is signed, you go with Strome, Nylander, Kubalik as a line. Talent wise, the line should mesh together, but all 3 have to prove next year they belong in the league (or in Kubalik's case that he is a legit 25- 30 goal scorer. If they fail, 2 guys you just don't resign, and Kubalik only has one year left.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Oct 21 @ 3:43 PM ET
Do any of those prospects have two Stanley Cup rings (and played in the top 6 on those cup teams)? It is all about the sale, especially when dealing with a team that is vying for the Cup. And the guy is playing for his next contract. The chances of strong results for one year are very high. I don't doubt that the market was minimal to take on $6 million. Then Stan should have waited - would the return have been less? Or even the same? Table all of that if "money dump" was the impetus.
- jrsamu


Money dump was the main impetus. They were not going to resign him and they needed the cap room. If they held onto him and he got injured and they lost him for nothing, everyone would be asking for Stan's head. "He waited too long." Let's be honest, if they got the exact same return the same would be said.
fattybeef
Joined: 05.04.2010

Oct 21 @ 3:45 PM ET
Then hold Saad until next season's trade deadline, when he will be more valuable as a final piece to a contending team
- scottak


Maybe. Lehner was a pretty big chip and he didn't get them a whole lot.
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Oct 21 @ 3:52 PM ET
I agree. I was thinking (I will probably be booed off this board again), that if (or when) Strome is signed, you go with Strome, Nylander, Kubalik as a line. Talent wise, the line should mesh together, but all 3 have to prove next year they belong in the league (or in Kubalik's case that he is a legit 25- 30 goal scorer. If they fail, 2 guys you just don't resign, and Kubalik only has one year left.
- LAHawk


Boo.
boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Oct 21 @ 3:55 PM ET
Theo, I thought your take on this statement was the most compelling:

"...an effort that will require a stockpile of emerging talent to complement our top players"

My initial thought upon reading that in the Hawks press release was that by "top players" they meant the core-4 and that meant that the rebuild wasn't going to go far enough to be as effective as it could be. But after reading your take that it doesn't necessarily mean the core-4, it really opened up a different and better perspective for me.

It may end up being the core-4 stick around because they can't really force them out, but "top players" could mean the new wave of top players, such as Dach and Boqvist, and that tips the press release from "meh" to one of optimism.

- EbonyRaptor


I would put Boqvist and Dach as part of the "stockpile of emerging talent".
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Oct 21 @ 3:59 PM ET
Sean Maloughney is the HockeyBuzz blogger for the Oilers and now for the Kraken, too. He is doing a mock expansion draft and his blog today features the Blackhawks with my contribution for him to make the selection.

Check it out here:

https://www.hockeybuzz.co...ago-Blackhawks/286/108011

- Theo Fox


Nice reasoning here Theo. I personally think I would have gone the 8 skaters and a goalie route (to protect Zadorov) , but that is just me.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Oct 21 @ 4:00 PM ET
Boo.
- Chunk


At least it was a polite boo
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Oct 21 @ 4:03 PM ET
Okposo, Reinhart, Mitts, Lottery protected 2021 1st and 2022 3rd
for
Kane

- ImThatGuy


Click....
hawk35
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NF
Joined: 08.26.2009

Oct 21 @ 4:14 PM ET
We could steal games. We could compete. Throw in a Kaner and Alex Debrincat snipage, we could steal a series. An opposition huge injury or two in the final and we might be able to sneak another Cup in
- just69sayin



OMG man!!!!! Please, gimme some of what you are smokin"!!!!
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Oct 21 @ 4:15 PM ET
I decided to at very least get the top ten profiles up and at least six rounds in place for 2021 on DraftSite.

This class isn't a full of the depth and wealth at forward that the last one was.

But most of the players, especially the defenseman are much bigger than this 2020 crop.

We will have to wait and see if the class is as thick but there's a lot to like in the first round again.

jrsamu
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 11.07.2014

Oct 21 @ 4:21 PM ET
Thank you for the link to the mock expansion draft.

Based on what we know at the moment, no way I don't protect Zadorov unless of course Seattle wants him and is willing to throw draft choices into the mix. They can have Alex Nylander so long as we don't have to give picks/assets up to dispose of him.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Oct 21 @ 4:21 PM ET
The plan for the future doesn't seem to be predicated on hoping for top 5 picks to dig them out. Yes, these elite picks would help but we also see that it hasn't really helped the Oilers or Leafs.

Instead, focus developing all prospects, playing the right way, and creating a culture of competing by all players. Top players are great but it takes a team effort to consistently contend.

- Theo Fox


The statement does an end around the draft (that they take longer) but if they pick in the top three you know they are going to convince e that fella to come in early...
Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Oct 21 @ 4:34 PM ET
I decided to at very least get the top ten profiles up and at least six rounds in place for 2021 on DraftSite.

This class isn't a full of the depth and wealth at forward that the last one was.

But most of the players, especially the defenseman are much bigger than this 2020 crop.

We will have to wait and see if the class is as thick but there's a lot to like in the first round again.

- wiz1901


Good thing we'll have a top 10 pick.
RickJ
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Burlington, ON
Joined: 01.12.2010

Oct 21 @ 4:36 PM ET
Most GM's in this league are like reckless hunters....shoot first ask questions later. When they haydays were here Stan shot first and threw out hefty long term contracts to basically whoever wanted one because times were good and seemed like they were going to last forever. Now the haydays are gone and with it comes the questions.
I don't think Chicago's management thought these days would come so fast but they are now here and it's a mess to sort through.
Like some other posters mentioned, with a flat cap for the foreseeable future, not many teams can take on money without giving money back. Top that with core players who all have NMC's in there contracts, it could be a long grind for this team for a while.

- NewfieStud

A long grind by NHL standards is defined as 54 years a la the Maple Leafs. Anything less than that is a comparative blip on the radar.

Yes Bowman & Co. tried to extend the run beyond what was likely or achievable. Some bad trades and contract and cap mistakes hurt too. Tampa Bay is next up to experience the pain of winning.

But at least the Hawks have decided not to ice a 4th line of sprinters like Thornton, Spezza and Simmonds. When that doesn't work out, what's Dubas going to try next? Fans of the Maple Loafs could be looking at the possibility of a 75 year Cup drought. Even fans of the Canadiens might consider that cruel. But maybe not.
hawk35
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: NF
Joined: 08.26.2009

Oct 21 @ 4:41 PM ET
Although the core and management seem to be on the same page now after there being a disconnect, we'll see how long that lasts.

I'd definitely support all 4 of them staying on board but wouldn't be surprised if at least one of them asks out within the next year. My money is on Keith.

Seabrook next especially if he is relegated to the 6/7 spot.

Toews and Kane are likely to be lifelong Blackhawks, IMO.

- Theo Fox


It may be a long shot....but, if the Laine situation in Winnipeg gets real bad....maybe Stan can see if Toews wants to go home. Hammer out a Toews plus a couple sweeteners for Laine and a 3 or 4 million Jet guy....and the dollars should be pretty even. I mean, if the jets GOTTA part ways with Laine. Toews can be a great leader and mentor on their team. Jets would be massive down the middle Schiefle, Toews, Stastny and Lowry. Might help two teams outta a bind.

Ya...I know. Not happening.....but, just saying there are always possibilities....
Nmbr1
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 01.09.2018

Oct 21 @ 5:02 PM ET
Overall, I think at least some of what has been done so far has been with the flat cap and the upcoming expansion draft in mind.

with the "old core" Kane and Toews aren't going anywhere, nor should they. Seabs is done, which frees up 6.8 M. if not ltir, At the very least he may be asked and may agree to waiving his NMC to allow Seattle to claim him in the expansion draft in order to get to the cap floor. Keith is overrated, even at 5.3M or so, but some teams may be interested enough in what skill set he still has to bring a decent return, if he waives his NMC. Not that I consider him truly part of the old core, it seems that Shaw may be done, too.

Dach, boqvist, Kubalik and maybe ADB represent the "young core". ADB needs to rebound next year or his 6+M contact is gonna seem not so tolerable. Nylander has one more chance to show he isn't a bust.

Will be interesting to see what the 2 new guys bring with their 1 year contracts.
Subban may be the goalie left unprotected if he doesn't step up his play. if he does then maybe delia is the one they leave unprotected.
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