Hornqvist actually had a really good season. He posted his second highest 5v5 scoring rate of his career on a shooting percentage that was only slightly on the high side of his career average (not a huge anomaly). I think it was smart to move on from Hornqvist sooner rather than later, but betting that Hornqvist wouldn’t fall off a cliff yet coming off one of his better offensive seasons would have been a smarter gamble than betting that a mediocre bottom pairing d man making top 4 money would be a valuable asset for us moving forward. Add in the hindsight and context of the rest of our off season moves where we did absolutely nothing to replace Hornqvist in the top 9 and the decision to trade him was pretty objectively bad even though the idea of moving on from him was theoretically sound.
- Victoro311

Great post.

I don't know if a direct comparison will ever be possible, but I will be interested to not just evaluate Matheson, but also to analyze how much of an upgrade he is over Riikola. That's the thing that gets me about that trade - we had a legit in-house replacement at 3LD. I would have much rather traded for a "bad" contract at the forward position.

I suppose it's possible that if JR thinks Matheson can hold down the 2LD spot, then that makes Petts a tradeable asset. Regardless, the net effect is that the trade hamstrung us in the last best year of the window with bargain FAs available.

This is only hindsight, but seeing how things played out, I'd have rather kept Bjugstad and just not added Sceviour if possible. 800k is an affordable gamble I'd have been willing to take that Bjugstad stays healthy enough to help more.
- Tojo.

Ehhh...not me. I wouldn't be surprised if Bjug retires. I think his body is broken.

I don't fully understand the rules around IR and LTIR, but the only way I would want to do what you prefer is if we could have used Bjug's $4.1M on a replacement instead of having $2M in dead money. I think that would have only been possible once the season starts.

Pronman at the Athletic listed Poulin as a RW. I'm feeling better about his ability to play there since he should know.

Pronman at the Athletic listed Poulin as a RW. I'm feeling better about his ability to play there since he should know.
- Tojo.

That's good to know. If he's really ready then that gives the Pens a lot of flexibility down the right side. If the Pens can somehow get a hold of a legit 3C then McCann can slot on the LW.

Ehhh...not me. I wouldn't be surprised if Bjug retires. I think his body is broken.

I don't fully understand the rules around IR and LTIR, but the only way I would want to do what you prefer is if we could have used Bjug's $4.1M on a replacement instead of having $2M in dead money. I think that would have only been possible once the season starts.
- Hockey66

I simply don't trust Bjug to stay healthy. Too big of risk to spend that cap hit on him. I didn't hate the move. Not a fan of the way Ruth spent the money.

Rutherford left a spot open for one of his young kids. I don't hate that decision. Still not a fan of this offseason, but I think a third liner will likely be a cheap add later in the season if needed. Cap crunch isn't going away after this season starts. Several of these contracts can be buried if we need the space at the TDL.

Pronman at the Athletic listed Poulin as a RW. I'm feeling better about his ability to play there since he should know.
- Tojo.

That's good to hear

That's good to know. If he's really ready then that gives the Pens a lot of flexibility down the right side. If the Pens can somehow get a hold of a legit 3C then McCann can slot on the LW.
- Rinosaur

Yea, also if Poulin plays both sides that leaves even more flexibility, you could add any good third line player with Poulin LW-RW flex and McCann LW-C flex. If Poulin makes it haha

Yea, also if Poulin plays both sides that leaves even more flexibility, you could add any good third line player with Poulin LW-RW flex and McCann LW-C flex. If Poulin makes it haha
- 668710

Good point, means you can potentially add a player from anywhere.

Yea, also if Poulin plays both sides that leaves even more flexibility, you could add any good third line player with Poulin LW-RW flex and McCann LW-C flex. If Poulin makes it haha
- 668710

Not to harp, but this is what aggravates me about how JR filled out the lineup. Lafferty, fine, I'm on board, but that $1.4M spent on Jank and Erod could have gone to a better gamble. $2.7M would be free, but let's say you subtract $900K for the possibility of Poulin, you have $1.8M. Maybe you get someone like Haula or maybe even Soderberg on a one year deal.

Now you have McCann-Soderberg or Haula-Poulin. You can leave the 4th line in-tact and have a 3rd line that while not ideal looks a poopload better than what they have now.

Not to harp, but this is what aggravates me about how JR filled out the lineup. Lafferty, fine, I'm on board, but that $1.4M spent on Jank and Erod could have gone to a better gamble. $2.7M would be free, but let's say you subtract $900K for the possibility of Poulin, you have $1.8M. Maybe you get someone like Haula or maybe even Soderberg on a one year deal.

Now you have McCann-Soderberg or Haula-Poulin. You can leave the 4th line in-tact and have a 3rd line that while not ideal looks a poopload better than what they have now.
- Rinosaur

If Ruth wants to add he can. We can go over 10% of the cap and/or easily send Jank, Erod, Lafferty down. Even Scevior if need be. He's been pretty cutthroat this off-season so it's possible

Not to harp, but this is what aggravates me about how JR filled out the lineup. Lafferty, fine, I'm on board, but that $1.4M spent on Jank and Erod could have gone to a better gamble. $2.7M would be free, but let's say you subtract $900K for the possibility of Poulin, you have $1.8M. Maybe you get someone like Haula or maybe even Soderberg on a one year deal.

Now you have McCann-Soderberg or Haula-Poulin. You can leave the 4th line in-tact and have a 3rd line that while not ideal looks a poopload better than what they have now.
- Rinosaur

Agreed. Interesting thing though is that I have a feeling a lot of these are analytics driven moves. Matheson is a weird player that had no help and wasn't given offensive zone starts so he could find a purely offensive niche, Jankowski had a horrible year and was sheltered but he also had even worse teammates and played a depth defensive role, Sceviour also has surprisingly ok analytics in terms of expected goal share given his starts and teammates. They're not difference makers but given the right roles they MIGHT be effective.

I disagree with JR's moves completely but I think these are actually nerd gambles rather than completely pointless moves.

Probably our only chance this year is if Pettersson takes a big step, Matheson bounces back, Poulin makes an impact and we acquire a 3C before the deadline. We also need Sully to commit to high pressure hockey again instead of whatever the hell he's had us do since 2017.

Agreed. Interesting thing though is that I have a feeling a lot of these are analytics driven moves. Matheson is a weird player that had no help and wasn't given offensive zone starts so he could find a purely offensive niche, Jankowski had a horrible year and was sheltered but he also had even worse teammates and played a depth defensive role, Sceviour also has surprisingly ok analytics in terms of expected goal share given his starts and teammates. They're not difference makers but given the right roles they MIGHT be effective.

I disagree with JR's moves completely but I think these are actually nerd gambles rather than completely pointless moves.

Probably our only chance this year is if Pettersson takes a big step, Matheson bounces back, Poulin makes an impact and we acquire a 3C before the deadline. We also need Sully to commit to high pressure hockey again instead of whatever the hell he's had us do since 2017.
- cygnus41

"nerd gambles"

Yeah, it seems as if a lot of things have to break just right for us.

Agreed. Interesting thing though is that I have a feeling a lot of these are analytics driven moves. Matheson is a weird player that had no help and wasn't given offensive zone starts so he could find a purely offensive niche, Jankowski had a horrible year and was sheltered but he also had even worse teammates and played a depth defensive role, Sceviour also has surprisingly ok analytics in terms of expected goal share given his starts and teammates. They're not difference makers but given the right roles they MIGHT be effective.

I disagree with JR's moves completely but I think these are actually nerd gambles rather than completely pointless moves.

Probably our only chance this year is if Pettersson takes a big step, Matheson bounces back, Poulin makes an impact and we acquire a 3C before the deadline. We also need Sully to commit to high pressure hockey again instead of whatever the hell he's had us do since 2017.
- cygnus41

Pettersson has been very good. What big step does he need to take?

Also, I think you're giving JR too much credit. Not that I'm looking for something negative to say about him, but if analytics played any kind of significant role in their decision-making, we'd be seeing different decisions all around.

Now, I'm not saying none of these guys he picked up are bad, but they're bad for their intended roles. Jankowski and Erod I'm sure could be useful players, but in a fourth line role, not to man the 3rd line.

“Koekkoek, 24, leaned a ton on his family during his roller-coaster tenure with the Lightning, who drafted him 10th overall in 2012. There were three shoulder surgeries, countless trips shuttling back and forth from Syracuse in the AHL. There were doubters and plenty of frustration.

Koekkoek always seemed like he was on the outside looking in — at least in terms of securing a regular role. The 35 games he played for the Lightning in 2017-18 were the most he played in the NHL over five seasons with Tampa Bay.”

Even though Koekoek hasn’t done much more than hold down a position as the 6/7 d-man in the lineup, he’s proven himself to be a reliable depth player.

“The first surgery was to repair a labrum in his left shoulder in 2011, but it didn’t fix the real problem, a divot. The next season in the OHL, Koekkoek hurt his left shoulder again and it required another surgery. Then Lightning-GM Steve Yzerman set him up with a doctor in Detroit who performed a Latarjet procedure, done to reconstruct shoulders with instability.

Koekkoek came back and played well for Windsor, but he hurt his right shoulder and was forced to have the same procedure.”

This kind of explains why he hasn't been signed to a NHL deal yet.

His possession did absolutely crater this season so a steep fall off is well within the realm of possibility. Holding onto him for much longer would have been a pretty big gamble, but again, it’s a better gamble than Matheson.
- Victoro311

I don't think it would have been that big of a gamble...he should have been able to fetch Matheson after he fell off a cliff.

Late response because I just saw this. Isles only have about 9M in cap space and still need to sign Barzel and Pulock, so they aren't done losing guys. There's maybe 10 teams in similar situations.

The point I was trying to make was that we all see the Pens holes, but in this climate, every team has them and is and almost every playoff team is worse then they were entering the bubble while the Pens are closer to treading water.

I'll agree Niskanen is declining, but they don't have a replacement and that's a problem and a hard hole to patch.
- Tojo.

This. Every team, except Colorado, is getting worse and parity will be more than ever this year. The team is what it is now and so hopefully Sully can get the most out of them. The additions can easily be waived for cap space if something good hopefully comes along.

Rino posted a great lineup. Spread the wealth. No tanev isn’t a top 6 winger but neither were many others. Doesn’t mean he can’t cause chaos, and puck retrieve. Hopefully they spread the wealth and a prospect can contribute.

If Tampa can’t trade TJ then we would never trade Horny for a dump or something beneficial. Hopefully MM pans out even in a sheltered role is all we can hope for. I’d rather have him than Horny incase this is the year he craps out.

Karmanos relieved of his duties ... this is getting saucy.

Karmanos relieved of his duties ... this is getting saucy.
- chimpira

Weird we’d wait to fire the first lieutenant after the draft and free agency. Jim realized his moves sucked and needed to take his anger out?

Weird we’d wait to fire the first lieutenant after the draft and free agency. Jim realized his moves sucked and needed to take his anger out?
- Victoro311

I imagine it’s so they can bring back Botts.

Jason Karmanos relieved of duties as Assistant GM. I think he was a hockey analytics guy... so I'm expecting a Ryan Wilson passive aggressive blog about how smart he is and how dumb the Penguins are.

It's pretty obvious if this guy was all hockey analytics, that no one in the Penguins organization listened to him.

Jason Karmanos relieved of duties as Assistant GM. I think he was a hockey analytics guy... so I'm expecting a Ryan Wilson passive aggressive blog about how smart he is and how dumb the Penguins are.

It's pretty obvious if this guy was all hockey analytics, that no one in the Penguins organization listened to him.
- SuperHenderson13

The guy they promoted on the interim to his position is the actual analytics guy of the org.

Although, agreed. No one has listed to analytics in this FO since 2017, if they were even listening to it then. The moves being analytically sound back then may have just been coincidental.

Jason Karmanos relieved of duties as Assistant GM. I think he was a hockey analytics guy... so I'm expecting a Ryan Wilson passive aggressive blog about how smart he is and how dumb the Penguins are.

It's pretty obvious if this guy was all hockey analytics, that no one in the Penguins organization listened to him.
- SuperHenderson13

Sam Ventura, Director of Hockey Research, is taking over the analytics duties per the presser.

He’s also the dude who created war on ice (@stat_sam on Twitter).

Honestly I didn’t even think he was employed by the Penguins considering he’s THE analytics guy in the hockey world and a majority of the Pens moves seem to be in the opposite direction in the last few years haha. I figured he was let go after they lucked their way to a cup with Hainsey.

Jason Karmanos relieved of duties as Assistant GM. I think he was a hockey analytics guy... so I'm expecting a Ryan Wilson passive aggressive blog about how smart he is and how dumb the Penguins are.

It's pretty obvious if this guy was all hockey analytics, that no one in the Penguins organization listened to him.
- SuperHenderson13

Karmanos had an NHL front office job because his dad owned the Hurricanes.

he was named assistant GM of the Hurricanes back in 1998 when he was 24 years old and had been Rutherford's right hand man basically ever since.

Jason Karmanos relieved of duties as Assistant GM. I think he was a hockey analytics guy... so I'm expecting a Ryan Wilson passive aggressive blog about how smart he is and how dumb the Penguins are.

It's pretty obvious if this guy was all hockey analytics, that no one in the Penguins organization listened to him.
- SuperHenderson13

Some scouts relieved of their positions as well. I keep hearing more and more that teams aren't able to afford staff salaries and potentially even play salaries this season. With the lowered revenue