Considering Saad was awarded when he was 2.5 years younger, coming off .65 PPG in the playoffs the last two seasons (nearly .85 PPG in one of them), is much better defensively, plays on the PK, and with better 5v5 offensive production this past season (Bertuzz took a step back there to under .5 PPG)... yeah, Saad was worth that amount in a non-cap stagnant world.
- L_B_R

I am asking about now in a cap stagnant world, and the trade value that Saad has now as he goes to UFA. I would rather have Bertuzzi NOW. especially for 60% of Saad's salary NOW. Bertuzzi was averaging .95 points per game in Detroit's first 21 games until Anthony Mantha went down, then his production went down. Bertuzzi would look outstanding on Toews left wing, much more physical than Saad has ever been, and doesn't have 2 boulders for hands.

My main point is the grief that Bowman got in the return for Saad. I think Stan did well considering Saad's albatross contract, and the fact IMO, he is not nearly as good as most of the board thinks. Just because the Hawks are devoid of big top 6 players (and I contend Saad plays small, he is NOT a power forward), does not mean he is $6 mil. valuable or even top 6 on another team.

I know my eyes have been clouded about the trade, because I have not been a fan of Saad since his return, and that is not because of giving up Panarin for him, but that he has significantly underperformed.

Unfortunately there is only one Hossa, best free agent signing in Chicago sports history, Lester is in the conversation as well.
- Angotti

Carlton Fisk is in the picture, too, I think.

Unfortunately there is only one Hossa, best free agent signing in Chicago sports history, Lester is in the conversation as well.
- Angotti

Not Dave Kingman? In not so kidding of an answer, Andre Dawson wasn't bad either.

Ottawa going to sign Galchelnuk, 1 year $1.05 million.

I could see nylander as part of package to trade Seabrook to seattle possibly. Of course seabs would have approve the trade but with diminish playing time perhaps it happens.

I could see nylander as part of package to trade Seabrook to seattle possibly. Of course seabs would have approve the trade but with diminish playing time perhaps it happens.
- Scott1977

Why would Seabrook - if he’s unhappy about not playing here - agree to go to an expansion team - and not play there? Yeah, it’s closer to his home, but....

Why would Seattle pay him whatever the Hawks don’t retain to not play him? They will have a lot of 4/5/6 defensemen to choose from in the draft to play in front of him, like VGK did.

I think Seabrook plays out his contract here.

He is a much better skater than Hayden.

Edit: Referring to the post comparing Morrison to Hayden. Quotes not working.
- bhawks2241

that is why I have hopes he could become a good to very good bottom 6 guy and PK is because he can skate at a NHL level. I think hayden a step faster would be a very good bottom 6 forward. or hayden was playing 10-15 years ago he would be fine. the game is now more about speed creating space and it used to be more about size. both were a factor but it was hypo it was 50/50 before now its 70/30.

I am asking about now in a cap stagnant world, and the trade value that Saad has now as he goes to UFA. I would rather have Bertuzzi NOW. especially for 60% of Saad's salary NOW. Bertuzzi was averaging .95 points per game in Detroit's first 21 games until Anthony Mantha went down, then his production went down. Bertuzzi would look outstanding on Toews left wing, much more physical than Saad has ever been, and doesn't have 2 boulders for hands.

My main point is the grief that Bowman got in the return for Saad. I think Stan did well considering Saad's albatross contract, and the fact IMO, he is not nearly as good as most of the board thinks. Just because the Hawks are devoid of big top 6 players (and I contend Saad plays small, he is NOT a power forward), does not mean he is $6 mil. valuable or even top 6 on another team.

I know my eyes have been clouded about the trade, because I have not been a fan of Saad since his return, and that is not because of giving up Panarin for him, but that he has significantly underperformed.
- LAHawk

So the bolded doesn't tell me much except that it was a small sample of data. Is that Bertuzzi too dependent on another player for production? And/or was he inconsistent and disappeared for some games? I actually don't think either is true but picking out a PPG from a relatively small sample and ignoring the rest of the season isn't really a compelling argument either.

Also Saad def does have poor hands, but he still scores at a similar or higher rate than Bertuzzi currently. Even in those first 21 games, Bertuzzi's GPG was .38 which is only .02 off from Saad's regular GPG rate. I can't draw any conclusions on the why behind this without digging in more but I'd assume from knowing Saad's profile that he likely shoots more and from in closer, which is a different type of goal scoring skill. Idc how a guy scores as long as he does it, personally.

Ftr I'd take Bertuzzi right now due to the Hawks situation of rebuilding and the fact that he's younger but I'd take Saad if the Hawks were a contending team. I think most people on the board would, even those who don't like Saad much. But your original comment just asked if Saad was worth $5m which he is. For his next contract based on term, no, but at his current age and production and defensive ability, he's worth the value.

Look, Saad is not my favorite player by any means and I kind of hate that I've been compelled to defend him this much but I feel like it's necessary when he's being subjectively put down so much. It def sucks that Panarin was given away for Saad+scraps, that Saad wasn't quite as good offensively as before (not by much though and imo he improved defensively), and I can even acknowledge that in the current market that Zadorov is likely the best that could be gotten.

However, none of that negates that the Hawks gave up the currently better player (possibly always better player) or that it's possible that the timing of the trade was an issue. Saad can be a good player but not right for the direction of the team or in context of the cap situation. Those are not mutually exclusive things.

Ultimately, I hope Zadorov kills it on the Hawks and Saad sucks for the Avs because I only care about the Hawks player doing well. Doesn't mean I won't point out the good, bad, or ugly in relation to either player now or in the future.

Like todays better than yesterdays

Count me in on the Hagel Entwhistle Highmore 4th line right now.

Kurashev's development will be interesting, if he can move into that 3C role, it makes Strome dispensable.

Of course that assumes Toews wants to stay.
- vabeachbear

With Kampf on his final year of his contract, I could see Entwistle centering Highmore and Hagel as the 4th line in 2021-22.

I'm thinking the same thing with Kurashev pushing the envelope with a campaign to be 3C by next season, too, which would make Strome less ideal in comparison.

So do the Hawks take the gamble with Kurashev and cut bait with Strome now or defer that decision?

Good stuff Theo.

I'd be surprised with Dach if there was a "sophomore slump". His numbers during the regular season last year were pretty modest as they eased him into the lineup.

The playoffs proved not to be too big of a moment and he was able to raise his level of play.

The learning curve for this kid just doesn't appear too steep and not only does he seem determined to keep growing his game but has the tools to do so.

He scored most of his goals in close last season and started getting time on the PP in front of the goalie. I don't think it's a stretch to see him being close to a PPG player next season, especially getting PP time and likely second line minutes possibly playing with Kane and maybe DeBrincat or gulp...Nylander.

What I'm looking for from him is improvement at the dot and being more stingy with the puck vs. the pass first, deferential mentality he had as a rookie (which is understandable).

A lot of that comes from confidence and he said one of the things he was committed to doing in the offseason was working on his shot, so I have no doubt he will.
- HawkintheD

Great outlook on Dach. Seems pretty accurate to me. I think he will be on a whole new level of play with more dominance this season, especially at ES and the PP.

Point wise, he's likely in the .67 to .75 PPG range then see the PPG pace in his third year. But if his linemates help carry the load, PPG may not be out of reach.

Carlton Fisk is in the picture, too, I think.
- StLBravesFan

Agreed, and LA also mentioned Dawson, but only one of these guys won three championships, and Lester won one as well.

I’m also looking for better decision making when carrying the puck into the ozone.

Too often he would try to carry it in between or around two opponents when it looked like he should pass it off or dump it.
- StLBravesFan

Yeah, Dach trying to dance around the entire team drives me batty. This isn't rat hockey. He needs to utilize his teammates more.

That should come with experience. He definitely has the vision and IQ to not be more creative with puck carries and playmaking.

Theo...you are awesome man! Keep up the frequent and quality posts, a little something to keep us involved during these bleak Hawk times...

Now, to your points:
1. Dach - The "Real Deal". Dach won't be an "elite" scorer, but will be solid. He works hard all over the ice, and should use his great post-season as a springboard to a Top six slotting by season's end. If we are going "Youth-movement"....don't be shy about it. Dach should be a Top six and let him develop as one.

2. The 3 goalies. NONE will be our starter in 5 years. Don't know where the starter will be coming from, but I have no faith that ANY of these 3 are an NHL quality starter going forward. The search should be on-going....

3. Suter. A good addition, because we need his "type". As a scorer, I see him closer to Kahun than to Kubalik. Hope I am wrong, and that he can contribute more offensively...I just think he will settle in as a 3rd line grinder, maybe 15-20 goal type. With his good work ethic, that is still good, and needed on this team. Just not big scorer like kubalik.

4. I see this as a static year. Not much will be transformed. We will STILL have the core-4. We will sprinkle youth throughout, but will finish bottom 3-6 in the league. It will take 2-3 years before we see any REAL transition...

5. The final quarter of the year we will be miles outta a playoff spot. It is then you will see the call-ups of lotsa guys from the farm. The Entwhistles, Kurachevs and such should all be getting a look at that time. Hopefully a vet or two can be dealt then as well.


Love our youth....hope last part of the season we see many (most) of them get some time in the "show" and that management can get a feel of who we will move ahead with, and who we can move for needed pieces (ie a goalie, forward prospaects).


Nice blog Theo....really enjoyed it!
- hawk35

Thanks, H35!

Your analysis is pretty realistic in terms of what is likely to play out with the items I described. My take was definitely aspirational but hopefully not too far from the truth.

Theo, great post
Really would like to see that 4th line down the road.
My question is where do you see Nylander fitting in?And what do the Hawks view him as? A scorer? player maker? a grinder ? Going forward I just don't where he fits in with Suter, and 2 FA SIGNINGS?

My other opinion is by trade deadline some D will be moving on, by my count we have 14 between Chicago and Rochford plus AHL D signings.

Keep up the good work!!!!
- CTblackhawkfan

Nylander and Strome are in a similar boat with needing to make their mark this season or else this is their last year in Chicago.

To answer your question, like Strome, Nylander has a narrowly defined niche as a top 6 winger. He's really not reliable enough in a defensive role or checking role.

So to make it or break it, Nylander would need to slot in with Toews and Kubalik or Dach and Kane (assuming those are the pairs to build around in the top 6).

So the bolded doesn't tell me much except that it was a small sample of data. Is that Bertuzzi too dependent on another player for production? And/or was he inconsistent and disappeared for some games? I actually don't think either is true but picking out a PPG from a relatively small sample and ignoring the rest of the season isn't really a compelling argument either.

Also Saad def does have poor hands, but he still scores at a similar or higher rate than Bertuzzi currently. Even in those first 21 games, Bertuzzi's GPG was .38 which is only .02 off from Saad's regular GPG rate. I can't draw any conclusions on the why behind this without digging in more but I'd assume from knowing Saad's profile that he likely shoots more and from in closer, which is a different type of goal scoring skill. Idc how a guy scores as long as he does it, personally.

Ftr I'd take Bertuzzi right now due to the Hawks situation of rebuilding and the fact that he's younger but I'd take Saad if the Hawks were a contending team. I think most people on the board would, even those who don't like Saad much. But your original comment just asked if Saad was worth $5m which he is. For his next contract based on term, no, but at his current age and production and defensive ability, he's worth the value.

Look, Saad is not my favorite player by any means and I kind of hate that I've been compelled to defend him this much but I feel like it's necessary when he's being subjectively put down so much. It def sucks that Panarin was given away for Saad+scraps, that Saad wasn't quite as good offensively as before (not by much though and imo he improved defensively), and I can even acknowledge that in the current market that Zadorov is likely the best that could be gotten.

However, none of that negates that the Hawks gave up the currently better player (possibly always better player) or that it's possible that the timing of the trade was an issue. Saad can be a good player but not right for the direction of the team or in context of the cap situation. Those are not mutually exclusive things.

Ultimately, I hope Zadorov kills it on the Hawks and Saad sucks for the Avs because I only care about the Hawks player doing well. Doesn't mean I won't point out the good, bad, or ugly in relation to either player now or in the future.
- L_B_R

thanks for your answer. I understand where you are coming from, hope you can see what my perspective is.

Ottawa going to sign Galchelnuk, 1 year $1.05 million.
- LAHawk

For 1 million. Good signing. Habs really fuqqed him over, destroyed his confidence. Centre...wing, top line, 4th line, back to centre...the guys head was spinning, he was afraid everytime he touched the puck.

Maybe he is all he will ever be, but his first year, before all the head games...he really looked like he could develop into something....maybe, just maybe...Ottawa can get him back on track. (THEN, we nab him!!!)

Theo, great post
Really would like to see that 4th line down the road.
My question is where do you see Nylander fitting in?And what do the Hawks view him as? A scorer? player maker? a grinder ? Going forward I just don't where he fits in with Suter, and 2 FA SIGNINGS?

My other opinion is by trade deadline some D will be moving on, by my count we have 14 between Chicago and Rochford plus AHL D signings.

Keep up the good work!!!!
- CTblackhawkfan

For those who need to visualize the blueline depth chart:

HAWKS: Keith, Seabrook, Murphy, de Haan, Boqvist, Zadorov, Seeler

HOGS: Carlsson, Beaudin, Mitchell, Kalynuk, Krys, Regula, Lindholm

AHL CONTRACTS: Franson, Osipov, Ramsey

Seeler is blocking a spot for a prospect like Carlsson or Mitchell. No need for Seeler as the prospects are much better.

At least one of the veterans are likely to be traded by the TDL so that could open up more spots for the youngsters, i.e. Beaudin, Kalynuk, Krys, or one of Carlsson or Mitchell.

For those who need to visualize the blueline depth chart:

HAWKS: Keith, Seabrook, Murphy, de Haan, Boqvist, Zadorov, Seeler

HOGS: Carlsson, Beaudin, Mitchell, Kalynuk, Krys, Regula, Lindholm

AHL CONTRACTS: Franson, Osipov, Ramsey

Seeler is blocking a spot for a prospect like Carlsson or Mitchell. No need for Seeler as the prospects are much better.

At least one of the veterans are likely to be traded by the TDL so that could open up more spots for the youngsters, i.e. Beaudin, Kalynuk, Krys, or one of Carlsson or Mitchell.
- Theo Fox

I kind of figured Seeler would be buried in Rockford and we would only see him if there were injuires on the big club

I think Cam morrison is going to suprise. 6-3 214 and has gotten better every year and is young as college UFA's go. as a point of REF he is 1 1/2 years younger then wyatt Kalynuk the other big UFA we have. He is a solid straight line skater for his Im thinking a poor mans brandon SAAD. I think he is going to be better then barrett. and entwhiste.
- kmw4631

IMO, Morrison needs at least one if not two seasons in the minors first to round out his game and translate his skillset to the pro level.

Sure, he or anyone else could be a dark horse but let Morrison marinate as long as he needs.

He could go anywhere from being the next Bryan Bickell to the next Kyle Baun. Bickell needed several years of AHL seasoning.

I'll play Eeyore today. About the same size and NCAA stats as John Hayden.
- Rota's Rooter

The one thing that bothered me about Hayden was that he wanted to be a finesse player but his body type and skillset suggested power forward.

So if Morrison can realize early what role or player type he is best suited to fill, then he can focus on developing in that mold.

Don't be a square forcing yourself into a round hole. The same goes with any other prospect.

Krys is a great example. He is horrible when he plays all fancy pants but is actually pretty steady when he settles into the role of a minute-munching 200-foot defender who keeps it simple.

With Kampf on his final year of his contract, I could see Entwistle centering Highmore and Hagel as the 4th line in 2021-22.

I'm thinking the same thing with Kurashev pushing the envelope with a campaign to be 3C by next season, too, which would make Strome less ideal in comparison.

So do the Hawks take the gamble with Kurashev and cut bait with Strome now or defer that decision?
- Theo Fox

I’m guessing that the return isn’t what there looking for with Galchenyuk signing for what he did

Wiz - Suter has more offensive instinct/skill than Kahun no?
- bhawks2241

IMO, Suter has a killer instinct that Kahun lacks. Kahun is skilled, smart, and resilient but a bit passive for my tastes.

Why would Seabrook - if he’s unhappy about not playing here - agree to go to an expansion team - and not play there? Yeah, it’s closer to his home, but....

Why would Seattle pay him whatever the Hawks don’t retain to not play him? They will have a lot of 4/5/6 defensemen to choose from in the draft to play in front of him, like VGK did.

I think Seabrook plays out his contract here.
- StLBravesFan

This. I doubt Nylander is enough to take on any of Seabrook's contract for an expansion team.

The only chance Seabrook leaves is that the Hawks retain better than 50% of the salary, take back a poopty contract AND Seabrook wants to go. And that assumes the three surgeries have improved his health and mobility by 50%. Otherwise it is a waste of time to wish for it. If you add Nylander you may have to throw in Beaudin in order for somebody to take Nylander off your hands.

This. I doubt Nylander is enough to take on any of Seabrook's contract for an expansion team.

The only chance Seabrook leaves is that the Hawks retain better than 50% of the salary, take back a poopty contract AND Seabrook wants to go. And that assumes the three surgeries have improved his health and mobility by 50%. Otherwise it is a waste of time to wish for it. If you add Nylander you may have to throw in Beaudin in order for somebody to take Nylander off your hands.
- jrsamu

The problem with the Hawks retaining 50% of Seabrook's contract (or any large percentage) is that it lasts for four more seasons - at 50%, a cap hit of $3.4 per year (actual cash outlay of (2.5-$3-$2.5-$2.25=$10.25).

Plus - from what everyone is saying - there is only one more available retention slot on the roster.

This. I doubt Nylander is enough to take on any of Seabrook's contract for an expansion team.

The only chance Seabrook leaves is that the Hawks retain better than 50% of the salary, take back a poopty contract AND Seabrook wants to go. And that assumes the three surgeries have improved his health and mobility by 50%. Otherwise it is a waste of time to wish for it. If you add Nylander you may have to throw in Beaudin in order for somebody to take Nylander off your hands.
- jrsamu

Cannot do. 50% is the max on any ONE salary retention.

Also, team only allowed three...we have 2 used. Those three can only add to 15% of the CAP. Would have to check the other two, to see how close we are, but 50% of Seabrook's MAY be outta reach....


edit...checked. We have lots of dollar room to retain 50% of Seabrook. But, since he has FOUR years remaining...I think we can forget Hawks doing that. Just not sensible...