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Forums :: Blog World :: Todd Cordell: Grading the Calgary Flames' off-season moves
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Trevor_Neufeld
Calgary Flames
Location: Calgary, AB
Joined: 02.11.2007

Nov 15 @ 3:39 PM ET
Not sure what the point of this chart was...? He put up far worse numbers with Edler than Hughes. And overall he's been the possession anchor over the years in all cases.
- LittleBroDougie


To point out who his primary linemate was. He played 100 minutes of worse possession with the old, slow, injured guy? Damn dude careful with those hot takes.

A defensive defenseman has poor possession numbers? Sh!t dude you’re going to start the carpet on fire loading all of those hot takes onto your plate in one go.
K-man25
Calgary Flames
Location: K town
Joined: 09.02.2014

Nov 15 @ 6:28 PM ET
I agree with most of your assessments in the article.

Markstrom is an above average goalie, but I don't like the cost/term when he has a NMC. For someone his age at his position, that's just not realistic. I've heard it speculated that we'll likely regret the last year or two of the contract. Probably sooner rather than later, unless he weathers better with a stronger D-corp. in front of him. Maybe I'm being unrealistically optimistic in thinking that Wolfe and Chechelev will be knocking at the door long before that six years is up.

Completely bang-on regarding Tanev being the Hamonic replacement with similar stats and concerns and grade.

Liked your view on Simon and his ability to slide up an down the lineup. Just to be clear, though, if he's in our bottom-6, then we're not going to get 30 points out of him, but his game is solid enough that he'll be a strong support to whomever he's with.

Leivo has potential, but the one thing I've not heard addressed is his skill as a skater, which may be suspect and which may have kept him from climbing the depth charts elsewhere.

I must admit that I disagree with you about Nordstrom. He was never picked up to address depth scoring/putting up points. The sole reason for his presence is to consistently shut down opposition as a grinder and on the PK. Anything on top of that is gravy (though it won't be much of anything).

My two cents, for what it's worth.

- WrySatyr


Totally disagree on Markstrom. Trelivings been bargain bin shopping on goalies since he got here, was time he took the plunge. Markstrom was vancouvers mvp two seasons in a row. There’s no reason that he can’t be an top end goalie for the full 6 years. One only he’s to look at Kippers career.
LittleBroDougie
Calgary Flames
Joined: 03.03.2017

Nov 15 @ 8:49 PM ET
To point out who his primary linemate was. He played 100 minutes of worse possession with the old, slow, injured guy? Damn dude careful with those hot takes.

A defensive defenseman has poor possession numbers? Sh!t dude you’re going to start the carpet on fire loading all of those hot takes onto your plate in one go.

- fry



Defensive dmen aren't synonymous with poor possession numbers, that's not how it works. You don't put a defensive dman out to get shelled in your own zone.

Even using your own logic, if he plays with an elite offensive talent in Hughes and Tanev is taking care of his own zone, they should post phenomeally strong metrics because the puck would never be in their own end (Tanev's job) while Hughes would be creating offence.

Even Myers who is considered to be a terrible contract, was dominant with Hughes.
Kevin R
Calgary Flames
Location: E5 = It aint gonna happen.
Joined: 02.10.2010

Nov 16 @ 12:01 PM ET
Defensive dmen aren't synonymous with poor possession numbers, that's not how it works. You don't put a defensive dman out to get shelled in your own zone.

Even using your own logic, if he plays with an elite offensive talent in Hughes and Tanev is taking care of his own zone, they should post phenomeally strong metrics because the puck would never be in their own end (Tanev's job) while Hughes would be creating offence.

Even Myers who is considered to be a terrible contract, was dominant with Hughes.

- LittleBroDougie

Huh???????? I think coaches utilization has more impact on these metrics offensive versus defensive zone starts. Maybe we should wait & see how Tanev plays within the useage & system Ward decides to employ Tanev. I have no problem if Tanev was brought in to replace Hamonic. We kinda missed Hammer in the playoffs & I understand why he opted out, but he was missed. Guys like him & Tanev show their value in playoff style games, same as Bennett plays better in playoff games. Canucks could afford to let Tanev walk because they had a player that played similar
in Myers.
Trevor_Neufeld
Calgary Flames
Location: Calgary, AB
Joined: 02.11.2007

Nov 16 @ 3:37 PM ET
Defensive dmen aren't synonymous with poor possession numbers, that's not how it works. You don't put a defensive dman out to get shelled in your own zone.

Even using your own logic, if he plays with an elite offensive talent in Hughes and Tanev is taking care of his own zone, they should post phenomeally strong metrics because the puck would never be in their own end (Tanev's job) while Hughes would be creating offence.

Even Myers who is considered to be a terrible contract, was dominant with Hughes.

- LittleBroDougie


Expecting one defenseman to handle winning corner battles in your own end ignores the concept of the defensive cycle. You understand how that works, right? You understand there is a reason why the Canucks looked like they were playing river hockey all of last year?

To respond to your first comment, that’s exactly what a defensive defenseman is synonymous with. They’re out for the majority of defensive zone draws. Usually against the other team’s first unit. You absolutely put your best defensive defenseman out to kill the momentum and try to avoid getting shelled. Even at face value it’s funny to see people look at opportunity differential and claim one player is better than the other. Especially when your primary role on the team is to kill off a shift when momentum is slipping. Killing a shift starting in the defensive zone against the other team’s 1st unit then saying “but how many chances did that shift generate?” is exactly why Todd botches analyzing advanced stats when he does.

This all digresses from the point I was making. I addressed your points and encourage you to look into what the defensive cycle is. My point is there is a better explanation as to why Tanev posted worse defensive numbers last year compared to previous years as pointed out in the chart below. You’ll notice the big red area indicating opportunities last year 5v5. The left side. The side Hughes is generally responsible for.

All I’m saying is the dip in numbers is due to far less puck support in the corners with a rookie, undersized defense partner. It’s not simply because “he got worse last year”.

CF43200-C-E541-447-B-8571-F66513-F23-B2-D
green heart emojis
geta02it
Calgary Flames
Location: AB
Joined: 11.10.2007

Nov 16 @ 5:26 PM ET
So...
Thoughts?

K-man25
Calgary Flames
Location: K town
Joined: 09.02.2014

Nov 16 @ 6:00 PM ET
So...
Thoughts?


- geta02it

Always liked Blasty! Glad to see him back.
geta02it
Calgary Flames
Location: AB
Joined: 11.10.2007

Nov 16 @ 6:30 PM ET
Always liked Blasty! Glad to see him back.
- K-man25

I was getting tired of seeing Flames fans justifying Canucks anything...
Ol_Boy_Wop
Calgary Flames
Joined: 08.24.2011

Nov 16 @ 8:07 PM ET
So...
Thoughts?


- geta02it

The piping is terrible.
LittleBroDougie
Calgary Flames
Joined: 03.03.2017

Nov 17 @ 7:51 AM ET
Huh???????? I think coaches utilization has more impact on these metrics offensive versus defensive zone starts. Maybe we should wait & see how Tanev plays within the useage & system Ward decides to employ Tanev. I have no problem if Tanev was brought in to replace Hamonic. We kinda missed Hammer in the playoffs & I understand why he opted out, but he was missed. Guys like him & Tanev show their value in playoff style games, same as Bennett plays better in playoff games. Canucks could afford to let Tanev walk because they had a player that played similar
in Myers.

- Kevin R


Not sure why this concept is so hard to understand. If you start a defenceman in the DZ you're expecting him to do his job which is prevent the other team from scoring. So how do you do that? You get the puck out therefore it's not in your zone therefore the metrics would be positive possession with more shots for than against. Simple as that.

If your metrics are poor than you're getting hemmed in.
LittleBroDougie
Calgary Flames
Joined: 03.03.2017

Nov 17 @ 7:58 AM ET
Expecting one defenseman to handle winning corner battles in your own end ignores the concept of the defensive cycle. You understand how that works, right? You understand there is a reason why the Canucks looked like they were playing river hockey all of last year?

To respond to your first comment, that’s exactly what a defensive defenseman is synonymous with. They’re out for the majority of defensive zone draws. Usually against the other team’s first unit. You absolutely put your best defensive defenseman out to kill the momentum and try to avoid getting shelled. Even at face value it’s funny to see people look at opportunity differential and claim one player is better than the other. Especially when your primary role on the team is to kill off a shift when momentum is slipping. Killing a shift starting in the defensive zone against the other team’s 1st unit then saying “but how many chances did that shift generate?” is exactly why Todd botches analyzing advanced stats when he does.

This all digresses from the point I was making. I addressed your points and encourage you to look into what the defensive cycle is. My point is there is a better explanation as to why Tanev posted worse defensive numbers last year compared to previous years as pointed out in the chart below. You’ll notice the big red area indicating opportunities last year 5v5. The left side. The side Hughes is generally responsible for.

All I’m saying is the dip in numbers is due to far less puck support in the corners with a rookie, undersized defense partner. It’s not simply because “he got worse last year”.

CF43200-C-E541-447-B-8571-F66513-F23-B2-D
green heart emojis

- fry


See my post above. Yes I watch a ton of hockey not just Flames. Yes, I genuinely believe metrics are the future because they're never wrong (good teams may not always win the cup but they'll make it to the dance. Meanwhile, a champ will 99//100 times be an advanced stats machine). I know what you're saying.

But even in DZ starts you should be transitioning the play that's the whole reason you'd task that responsibility to your best defensive dman.

Look up any top defensive player. Not a single one has poor metrics even with high DZ starts. You don't even have to look further than the Flames with Tkachuk and Backlund or Gio and Brodie on defence. They dominate no matter the DZ starts.

As for your charts you didn't label which side was which nor whether the percentages reflect shot suppression or relative. They could either be alright at best or awful at worse.

End of the day - poor metrics reflects generating less chances for than against and that's a problem regardless of DZ starts.
Trevor_Neufeld
Calgary Flames
Location: Calgary, AB
Joined: 02.11.2007

Nov 17 @ 5:08 PM ET
See my post above. Yes I watch a ton of hockey not just Flames. Yes, I genuinely believe metrics are the future because they're never wrong (good teams may not always win the cup but they'll make it to the dance. Meanwhile, a champ will 99//100 times be an advanced stats machine). I know what you're saying.

But even in DZ starts you should be transitioning the play that's the whole reason you'd task that responsibility to your best defensive dman.

Look up any top defensive player. Not a single one has poor metrics even with high DZ starts. You don't even have to look further than the Flames with Tkachuk and Backlund or Gio and Brodie on defence. They dominate no matter the DZ starts.

As for your charts you didn't label which side was which nor whether the percentages reflect shot suppression or relative. They could either be alright at best or awful at worse.

End of the day - poor metrics reflects generating less chances for than against and that's a problem regardless of DZ starts.

- LittleBroDougie


Noticing you listed Flames players that all get a very healthy amount of offensive zone starts.. Those aren’t examples of “top defensive players”. Nor is the subject “defensive players”, but more specifically defensive defensemen.

So let’s take the league’s best defensive defenseman (Can’t be just random players you like on the Flames) and look at his stats:

B2-D69-A72-40-FA-4-D8-E-9-AA1-6215000-E357-E

Marc-Edouard Vlasic, the quintessential defensive defenseman. Olympian and core member of the Sharks roster. Toting a career cf% of just over 50%.

51-D6-F009-2-A3-C-476-F-8867-19281665-EB9-A

Zdeno Chara. The biggest, baddest defensive defenseman of them all saw a reduction from 37% offensive zone starts last year to 30% this year. Not coincidentally, his relative Corsi also spiked down about 7%. It’s almost as if there was a correlation between your role on the ice and the advanced stats you have to show for performing in that role.

And hey man if you can’t zoom in and read the charts I can’t do much for you.
LordHumungous
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Greetings from the Humungous. Ayatollah of rock and rolla!
Joined: 08.15.2014

Nov 18 @ 10:36 AM ET
Thank you for taking out Vancouver's trash.
- Heywood Jablome

LordHumungous
Vancouver Canucks
Location: Greetings from the Humungous. Ayatollah of rock and rolla!
Joined: 08.15.2014

Nov 18 @ 10:37 AM ET
You’re welcome. You can keep Baertchi and Ferland that’s 7mil right there.
- K-man25

Better than 11.5 mil for Markstrom - Tanev - Leivo two of those being albatross contracts lol
LittleBroDougie
Calgary Flames
Joined: 03.03.2017

Nov 18 @ 11:26 AM ET
Noticing you listed Flames players that all get a very healthy amount of offensive zone starts.. Those aren’t examples of “top defensive players”. Nor is the subject “defensive players”, but more specifically defensive defensemen.

So let’s take the league’s best defensive defenseman (Can’t be just random players you like on the Flames) and look at his stats:

Marc-Edouard Vlasic, the quintessential defensive defenseman. Olympian and core member of the Sharks roster. Toting a career cf% of just over 50%.

Zdeno Chara. The biggest, baddest defensive defenseman of them all saw a reduction from 37% offensive zone starts last year to 30% this year. Not coincidentally, his relative Corsi also spiked down about 7%. It’s almost as if there was a correlation between your role on the ice and the advanced stats you have to show for performing in that role.

And hey man if you can’t zoom in and read the charts I can’t do much for you.

- fry


Where did I mention anything about relative stats? I was talking overall possession stats this whole time. Nice try on bending the argument to fit your narrative though.

These guys posted positive possession stats like I said the whole time - not <47%.

And I can't read the charts because you cropped them poorly.

bikeguy99
New Jersey Devils
Joined: 09.05.2017

Nov 18 @ 12:12 PM ET
Are we grading offseason moves? Or offseason acquisitions? Losing Hamonic/Brodie/Talbot wasn't discussed.

Markstrom is a big upgrade in net, and I doubt Talbot will be missed.

Brodie should have been matched, as he is only 500k more than Tanev, who brings strictly leadership, and the ability to eat pucks. Not a mobile guy, nor does he move the puck overly well.

Hamonic, essentially a younger version of Tanev would likely have stayed for less. I think overall the D took a noticeable dip this off-season, but Markstrom may be able to make up for those losses, and some.
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