So yeah, that's not how this works.

Vegas odds aren't meant to be an accurate reflection of probabilities in reality. They are meant to try to encourage roughly equal betting on all possible options to guarantee a profit for the house after all winning bets are paid.

Furthermore, if you add up all the implied probabilities from the Vegas odds, you get ~125%, which means Vegas is expecting to make about a 20% profit in the end (i.e., they'll only pay out 4 dollars in winnings for every 5 they take on bets). If you add up all the implied probabilities from Ek's "book," you end up with about 153%, meaning a theoretical house edge of about 35%.

Vegas odds, by design, already overestimate the real probability of an event, and Ek's adjustments further increased the implied probability (and thus lowering the payout) for a staggering 21 out of 31 teams while reducing it (and increasing the payout) for just 7.

I'm not sure whether the point of Ek "adjusting the odds" was to have them better reflect reality or to make them more appealing to a gambler, but they actually fail miserably on both counts. If you want to know a team's "true" odds to win, Ek's numbers are an even greater overestimation than Vegas'. And if you wanted to actually gamble, Vegas' payouts are equal or better for 24 out of 31 teams.
- Sven22

Thank you.

San Jose should be 100-1

Big brain over here trying to argue with computer generated models is the epitome of this joke of a website.

These odds are not a prediction of the playoff field.
- doghockey

Well thank you very much for that but I never even mentioned Vegas Odds so I have no idea why you are telling me this?

I was asking Ek about his predictions two days ago and today.

I just put $100 on Tampa at 7/1. Wanted to lock that in now before Vegas changes that to 4/1. Also got the Islanders at 25/1 when it should be like 12/1. If Hoffman or Chara sign with NYI then I could see them going to 3/1.

So the maple leafs, canes, and penguins are all more likely to win the cup than Philly?!

😂😂

Anyone want to wager that Philly finishes better than all of those teams? Put your money where your mouth is, Ek

How much money are you willing to lose?

I don't know if I'd even put Tampa as high as the odds-makers are.

-Just won the cup (hangover)
-RFA uncertainty
-Repeating is very, very rare


They'll be good as usual, but I'm unsure if they can grind through 4 rounds again like this year. I have them losing in the ECF to a darkhorse... who will go on to get stomped by Vegas.

So you lower San Jose's odds from 60:1 to 50:1 then you call them the worst bet among the longshots? That makes no sense.

Montreal would be my long shot
- MrPerfect316

That's as likely as the Denver Nuggets winning the cup. They eeked in at 24th last season, and traded their most consistent scorer for a wildcard. I don't have them making playoffs.

Calg and Carolina are great odds. If Markstrom plays anything like he did for Van, look out.

So you lower San Jose's odds from 60:1 to 50:1 then you call them the worst bet among the longshots? That makes no sense.
- gmarz16

Yeah it’s honestly hilarious. According to Ek's "fixed" numbers, there are only seven teams that are “bad bets” based on their original odds: Boston, Philadelphia, Dallas, Nashville, Arizona, Anaheim, and Detroit. Yet he calls Vegas (and not Boston) the “worst bet” of the contenders, and San Jose (and not Arizona, which he changed from 40/1 to 80/1) the “worst bet” of the longshots.

It’s pretty apparent he has no idea what he’s talking about.

Yeah it’s honestly hilarious. According to Ek's "fixed" numbers, there are only seven teams that are “bad bets” based on their original odds: Boston, Philadelphia, Dallas, Nashville, Arizona, Anaheim, and Detroit. Yet he calls Vegas (and not Boston) the “worst bet” of the contenders, and San Jose (and not Arizona, which he changed from 40/1 to 80/1) the “worst bet” of the longshots.

It’s pretty apparent he has no idea what he’s talking about.
- Sven22

Maybe the Buzztron changed the odds after he wrote the article. Anyway, I'm glad I locked in Tampa at 7/1 before they change to 4/1.

Well thank you very much for that but I never even mentioned Vegas Odds so I have no idea why you are telling me this?

I was asking Ek about his predictions two days ago and today.
- VANTEL

Uh, because the blog was about Vegas odds and Ek's take on them? You complained that a few days ago he had Vegas and Washington out of the playoffs then somehow construed a blog about Cup odds to mean he had the same two teams in the playoff field. His take on the odds and his guess that Vegas and Washington may not make the playoffs have nothing to do with each other.

What are the current betting odds on having a season? Those are what I'm really interested in.

Feels like easy money.

you all still complain about EK and his post. and yet you still click
- nyislsbossy

Hi Ek. Any sIgN aNd TrAdE roomerz?