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Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: Pyrrhic Victory
Author Message
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Feb 22 @ 11:31 AM ET
Funny about the soft Euro, when we are all complaining about how soft the Canadian (Strome) is.
67hawks
Joined: 08.30.2012

Feb 22 @ 11:49 AM ET
I feel for Panarin, but he probably should have stayed quiet about Russian politics. They can play dirty with dissenters.
Rota's Rooter
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2017

Feb 22 @ 11:51 AM ET
Funny about the soft Euro, when we are all complaining about how soft the Canadian (Strome) is.
- LAHawk

A good, Ontario boy soft?

breadbag
Location: Edmonton, AB
Joined: 11.30.2015

Feb 22 @ 11:51 AM ET
We are getting to the point in games played that we are starting to see what this years team is.

We are slightly more mobile on the back end and a bit better in front of the goalie. We struggle to drive possession with the top 6, but that has been balanced by the fact the Powerplay has overachieved so far.

Right now injuries are really hampering the Hawks even strength game, but all things considered, the team has performed better than expected.
Shady1962
Joined: 02.06.2021

Feb 22 @ 12:08 PM ET
Let the kids play and have fun, They will make mistakes and so what, The Hawks are no threat to win the Asterisk Covid tournament trophy this season, Management should focus on shedding bad money and term.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Feb 22 @ 12:49 PM ET
We are getting to the point in games played that we are starting to see what this years team is.

We are slightly more mobile on the back end and a bit better in front of the goalie. We struggle to drive possession with the top 6, but that has been balanced by the fact the Powerplay has overachieved so far.

Right now injuries are really hampering the Hawks even strength game, but all things considered, the team has performed better than expected.

- breadbag


Is players cherry picking and not being in position to receive the puck on defensive breakout, is this seemingly an inherant problem for many coaches and an affliction common in the NHL as well as the hockey playing world?

I bet some NHL coaches bench players who do this as opposed to playing within the structure of the team's system.

Barry Trotz. Know at times Queeneville in Chicago had to get tough about it. I recall vs Detroit in playoffs we were down in the series and this was one of the issues or problems we had.

If Colliton expects victories are forthcoming, in the playoffs drive his team.is shooting itself in the foot if forwards cannot properly help the dmen. And those stretch passed have to be curtailed.

This is on Colliton. If he is a good coach he will break his team from doing these things so often. I am displeased with Colliton remaining the coach if he does not tell the team to shore up.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Feb 22 @ 12:56 PM ET
If you look at Capfriendly, most of the top (contending) teams do not have bad contracts that expire after this season. Most expire after next year or even the year after. I do not see many teams needing to dump contracts in order to clear cap room to acquire the piece they are missing to challenge for the cup. It is too bad, because if Toews is out all year, they would be able to eat a bad contract expiring this year and add an asset.

Are Strome, deHaan, Zadoroc, Wallmark, Janmark, Soderberg on the Hawks after the TDL? Here is my guess Strome(yes, lack of interest), deHaan (no, someone will want/need to add a dman, but the return will not be great, middle round pick or b level prospect), Zadorov (yes lack of interest), Wallmark (yes), Janmark (no, darn I would rather see him reupped at a reasonable cap hit, return will be a 2nd), Soderberg (no, late round pick).
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Feb 22 @ 1:05 PM ET
Is players cherry picking and not being in position to receive the puck on defensive breakout, is this seemingly an inherant problem for many coaches and an affliction common in the NHL as well as the hockey playing world?

I bet some NHL coaches bench players who do this as opposed to playing within the structure of the team's system.

Barry Trotz. Know at times Queeneville in Chicago had to get tough about it. I recall vs Detroit in playoffs we were down in the series and this was one of the issues or problems we had.

If Colliton expects victories are forthcoming, in the playoffs drive his team.is shooting itself in the foot if forwards cannot properly help the dmen. And those stretch passed have to be curtailed.

This is on Colliton. If he is a good coach he will break his team from doing these things so often. I am displeased with Colliton remaining the coach if he does not tell the team to shore up.

- jhawk59


This isn't pre 2004-2005 when there was center line offside. Have you seen HOF coach Q's Panthers play this year? Stretch passes galore. Problem isn't the stretch pass, but it's execution. This year I think the Hawks have done a much better job of helping out the defense in the defensive zone. Kampf has turned into a premier shutdown center (too bad he has no offense), and Janmark and Soderberg know how to play defensive hockey. Strome tries this year, and so does Suter.

Amazing that the Hawks are playing 3-4 rookies on defense, at least 3 rookies at forward, and you don't expect the team to make mistakes/have a kefuffle or 2 during the game? Maybe Colliton should give each rookie the Q treatment after a mistake, they would be down to 1 1/2 lines during the game and 3 defenseman.


StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Feb 22 @ 1:16 PM ET
This isn't pre 2004-2005 when there was center line offside. Have you seen HOF coach Q's Panthers play this year? Stretch passes galore. Problem isn't the stretch pass, but it's execution. This year I think the Hawks have done a much better job of helping out the defense in the defensive zone. Kampf has turned into a premier shutdown center (too bad he has no offense), and Janmark and Soderberg know how to play defensive hockey. Strome tries this year, and so does Suter.

Amazing that the Hawks are playing 3-4 rookies on defense, at least 3 rookies at forward, and you don't expect the team to make mistakes/have a kefuffle or 2 during the game? Maybe Colliton should give each rookie the Q treatment after a mistake, they would be down to 1 1/2 lines during the game and 3 defenseman.

- LAHawk


Q’s Panthers do it out of opportunity (I say confidently, altho I haven’t watched them much this season).

Hawks do it out of desperation - when there is no other choice because all three forwards are at or on the other side of the red line. The opposition is there, too, eliminating most possibilities of successfully completed the pass.

Get the transition game going well - forwards back getting clearing passes at the Hawks’ blue line and quickly turning the puck up ice to get into the transition game.

Then selectively spring forwards for stretch passes when the opposition is still on the Hawks side of the ice.
jhawk59
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 02.15.2013

Feb 22 @ 1:24 PM ET
This isn't pre 2004-2005 when there was center line offside. Have you seen HOF coach Q's Panthers play this year? Stretch passes galore. Problem isn't the stretch pass, but it's execution. This year I think the Hawks have done a much better job of helping out the defense in the defensive zone. Kampf has turned into a premier shutdown center (too bad he has no offense), and Janmark and Soderberg know how to play defensive hockey. Strome tries this year, and so does Suter.

Amazing that the Hawks are playing 3-4 rookies on defense, at least 3 rookies at forward, and you don't expect the team to make mistakes/have a kefuffle or 2 during the game? Maybe Colliton should give each rookie the Q treatment after a mistake, they would be down to 1 1/2 lines during the game and 3 defenseman.

- LAHawk


I do expect mistakes. I do listen to more games than I watch, so I wanted to see how big of a problem is the forwards not being in position to help with break outs. There is always going to be stretch passes and cherry picking with most NHL teams. But how much is too much.

On another subject, I may be one of the few on this board whom doesn't mind seven dmen playing. I want to see the young dmen get in some development since I am hopeful they will become the backbone and among the core set of players to make us a successful team again.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Feb 22 @ 1:34 PM ET
I feel for Panarin, but he probably should have stayed quiet about Russian politics. They can play dirty with dissenters.
- 67hawks


Russia plays dirty with dissenters?

Why is he taking a leave of absence? Is there anything to confirm this old allegation? Even in today's environment, there needs to be some there there for action to occur. Strange case.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Feb 22 @ 1:41 PM ET
Russia plays dirty with dissenters?

Why is he taking a leave of absence? Is there anything to confirm this old allegation? Even in today's environment, there needs to be some there there for action to occur. Strange case.

- mohel


He probably is going into the witness protection program so he doesn't end up like Novotny.
StLBravesFan
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2011

Feb 22 @ 1:43 PM ET
Russia plays dirty with dissenters?

Why is he taking a leave of absence? Is there anything to confirm this old allegation? Even in today's environment, there needs to be some there there for action to occur. Strange case.

- mohel

Protection for himself - and his family and friends back in Mother Russia.
333inthe3rd
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Chicago, IL
Joined: 02.04.2015

Feb 22 @ 1:46 PM ET
We were discussing trading Strome in the previous thread. Hold those thoughts, because he just got placed in concussion protocol.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Feb 22 @ 1:58 PM ET
We were discussing trading Strome in the previous thread. Hold those thoughts, because he just got placed in concussion protocol.
- 333inthe3rd


I was just going to post that based on how Rockford has been playing, there is no immediate help at the forward position if you trade Strome. Next year. unless Stan trades or signs a top 6, better hope Nylander figures it out. Remember last year when Ryan Carpenter was Kane's center?
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 22 @ 2:00 PM ET
Deep thoughts by Theo Fox. That was a deep dive there. My concern is and will always be once the winning starts to get better for the playoff run you got to give to get. Do you not trade at the deadline if you think your team has a chance to win the Cup and you see a player who you think can really help your club get there?

In theory i really like your idea but then my fear is you become the Preds

- BetweenTheDots

To answer your question, yes, TDL deals to get a contender over the top should still be an option for the Blackhawks but Bowman as GM needs to be smart with the cap implications beyond the season.

How will he do that?

Honestly, I don't have an answer. All I know is that the team's professed new direction is sustainable salary structure and balanced player personnel. It's on management to figure out how to stay true to that direction while actually having a team that can regularly contend.
Rota's Rooter
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2017

Feb 22 @ 2:02 PM ET
Russia plays dirty with dissenters?

Why is he taking a leave of absence? Is there anything to confirm this old allegation? Even in today's environment, there needs to be some there there for action to occur. Strange case.

- mohel


I highly doubt there is any validity to this accusation.

The source it seems, Is Andrei Nazarov. You may remember him from the late 90s early 2000s as a crazed, imported goon that played for a number of teams.

Here he is against Bob Probert. It appears Andrei was watching a little too much WWE pro wrestling trying to open up the cut on Probert's forehead.


https://youtu.be/7Fu3FF0bb54
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 22 @ 2:03 PM ET
Thanks Theo - I will be the first to ask - What does Pyrrhic mean?

The Chicago organization currently has a deep pool of Defenseman, and it reminded me of Anaheim years ago. They had a good pool of d prospects, and I recall all the talking heads stating that Bob Murray had assets to make trades. But I don't think Anaheim has taken advantage of those assets. I just hope that Stan and Co can make some solid moves, there is only so many slots to fill players, so they all can't play.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I am ready for a Savard/Chelios type trade, just so there is something new to get excited about.

- powerenforcer

Thank you to Rota for answer your question. Sorry, I shouldn't assume that the phrase pyrrhic victory is generally understood.

Either way, I also hope the Hawks can leverage D prospect depth to add needed assets at other positions. The keys are continuing to groom these prospects and trade them at the right time to maximize returns.
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 22 @ 2:07 PM ET
Great analysis Theo. I think we have seen many examples of great players not being surrounded by a supporting cast leads to playoff disappointment. You can rack up a lot of points by regularly beating teams in the bottom half of the league that way, but when you play the cream of the crop, all 4 lines and all 6 D need to be hard workers and your goalie needs to upper third also.

The Hawks are getting close to being legit. Their defense is still a little weak, but I think they have the young players to fix that. It's going to take a little time though. They might slip into the playoffs this year if they can withstand the huge stretch of games to start March. They should be pretty solid in the playoffs next year. I think 2022-2023 they might return to contender status with all these young D having a couple seasons under their belts. That's assuming, of course, that they hold on to their top players and the young guys continue to develop and Kane is still around to lead the offense.

- biskit67

That sounds like a reasonable timeline to me. Like you said, it rests on the young players continuing to develop and reach potential.

It seems safe to assume Kane will remain a Blackhawk for a long time, perhaps until he retires.

This surprising season (for the better) has gotten Kane and Keith pretty excited. They have a renewed energy not seen in recent years.
mohel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 02.08.2013

Feb 22 @ 2:08 PM ET
We were discussing trading Strome in the previous thread. Hold those thoughts, because he just got placed in concussion protocol.
- 333inthe3rd



When has he ever had contact hard enough for a concussion? I kid. Hopefully it is a minor issue that he overcomes quickly.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Feb 22 @ 2:16 PM ET
When has he ever had contact hard enough for a concussion? I kid. Hopefully it is a minor issue that he overcomes quickly.
- mohel


Any update on Shaw?
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 22 @ 2:17 PM ET
Theo said, "Franchise players still need to be surrounded by a supporting cast who know how to win games."

There's no doubt about this. But the reverse is also true; a team with a good supporting cast isn't going to win without the high end players. I love Hagel, but you're not winning a Cup with 20 of him.

The model you propose, Theo, sounds nice but is unsustainable with a salary cap and free agency. There is a market out there that the Hawks have to live in. Once the team gets good, it will be because they have some high end players and a good supporting cast. How does another team emulate that quickly? By buying it. Teams will overpay guys; and play them over their skill level. Players you tell yourself you're not going to overpay will have market value set by the market.

We all have high hopes for Dach. Let's say he takes a big step up next year. We want and need that to happen, right. If he looks like he's a high end 1C, how do you propose not paying him like one? Or are you suggesting they trade their best players before they are UFA's?

It seems you're suggesting the Hawks handled 2009-2015 incorrectly. How do you think they should have handled thing differently? Let Toews and Kane walk? Trade them at 26?

As Dots pointed out, your model would not really allow the type of trades designed to help you win now. How do you explain to your team and fan base that you're not going for it when you have a chance to win?

- mohel

Sorry, I should've been more clear about not overpaying top players. I didn't mean for that comment to be that they shouldn't be paid whatever the market dictates. That certainly will play a factor.

However, what happens if the Hawks ever have a core like Kane, Toews, Keith, Seabrook, Hossa, and Crawford again. Do you give them all huge contracts and get back to a top heavy salary structure again?

This is where I believe the new direction of the franchise will look for moderation, i.e. deciding who the true untouchables are and pay them as reasonably as possible while not shortchanging them, then think long and hard about the rest.

The rest could get traded to recoup new assets who can help the team. If these players are performing well, those returns could be valuable.

Do I think the Hawks mismanaged the salary cup from 2009-2015? As a fan who wanted to see championships, no, not really. But it still comes at a cost.

Is that cost just how pro sports work as far as championship cycles? Enjoy them if and when you can get them but also know there will be dark times in between?

Again, the new franchise direction is looking for more sustainable growth with both the salary cap and roster. I don't know how management will actually pull that off but that's on them to put their money where their mouth is.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Feb 22 @ 2:19 PM ET
Sorry, I should've been more clear about not overpaying top players. I didn't mean for that comment to be that they shouldn't be paid whatever the market dictates. That certainly will play a factor.

However, what happens if the Hawks ever have a core like Kane, Toews, Keith, Seabrook, Hossa, and Crawford again. Do you give them all huge contracts and get back to a top heavy salary structure again?

This is where I believe the new direction of the franchise will look for moderation, i.e. deciding who the true untouchables are and pay them as reasonably as possible while not shortchanging them, then think long and hard about the rest.

The rest could get traded to recoup new assets who can help the team. If these players are performing well, those returns could be valuable.

Do I think the Hawks mismanaged the salary cup from 2009-2015? As a fan who wanted to see championships, no, not really. But it still comes at a cost.

Is that cost just how pro sports work as far as championship cycles? Enjoy them if and when you can get them but also know there will be dark times in between?

Again, the new franchise direction is looking for more sustainable growth with both the salary cap and roster. I don't know how management will actually pull that off but that's on them to put their money where their mouth is.

- Theo Fox


I think management will take a more jaundiced eye to Bettman's revenue projections in the future also. Shouldn't the cap be close to $100 million by now?
Theo Fox
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.18.2016

Feb 22 @ 2:21 PM ET
Well Theo, which came first the chicken or the egg? Either scenario is very difficult to sustain and you don't necessarily have a choice which scenario you fall into. A top heavy team for sure doesn't work long term. Without bridge deals you can't build a team fast enough before your players get too expensive to keep building (see Edmonton and Toronto).

Since 2013, it's apparent as more teams maxed their salary caps, GM's surely pushed by owners have overpaid for the "middle of the league" and not simply the top, making it impossible to put 18 solid players out there on the roster. I propose the "solid team top to bottom (offense, defense and goalie) void of superstars is a 'unicorn,' good luck with that!" How many World Series have the Oakland A's and KC Royals won the last 40 years? I think one? Add in the Pirates and Reds, still one? There will always be the "face of the franchise" player(s), for marketing if for no other reason a team overpays in order not to lose that player(s). Trade Walter Payton?

In today's league I have mentioned a few times, Kane and Toews would not have taken the $6M bridge deals. Under the "not overpaying for top players scenario," there is no cup in '13 as well as '15. Probably not a cup in '10 because Hossa is never signed unless you believe the two players you can sign by not signing Hossa put you over the top? I can't prove that wrong but I doubt it.

Hard to argue with paying to keep "Sid the kid."

- rpeters01

You bring up great points. One thing I do wonder is how the pandemic will impact team finances in the short and long term. Could this create a new era of how contracts and salary caps are managed?

Short answer, yes. Long answer, not sure of the specifics of what those impacts are or will be.

Could those impacts benefit the teams or the players or both? Conversely, could it hurt either of them or both?
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Feb 22 @ 2:26 PM ET
With Murphy back and Carlsson hurt I would like to see the younger dmen play their natural side. I think it would be better for their development. It may mean sitting deHaan or Zadorov occassionally.

RD Murphy, Mitchell, Boqvist, Bowey
LD Keith, deHaan, Zadorov, Beaudin, Kalynuk
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