So let's see what the stats say - Hawks position, 5x5:

SAT For = 24th in the league
SOG For = 15th
GF = 16th
S% = 23rd
Sv% = 12th

So my analysis is: the stats reflect your vision.

The Hawks get more SATs on net than average in the league.
The higher GF positioning reflects the early-season PP success.
They can't shoot worth poop: a low SAT / mid-league SOG / low S% leads to "can't score".
Goaltending (with an improving defensive goalie protection) is a the big factor in the surprising success of the team.

Stats will usually confirm the vision test (and vice versa), providing a more detailed understanding of what is going on.
- StLBravesFan

GF or GA is that really considered analytics, fancy stats? I talk about corsi, fenwick, SOG poop like that. Caps underwater on SOG and have a pretty good record so...

I dabble in online betting during college football and nfl season.....I get that as it was the world's worst kept secret that a LARGE majority of people watching games had monetary investments tied to it.....illegal or not.

I was thinking of Billy Beane as well......over a large sample size you can rely on some math as the chance vs succession rate I am sure is accurate but when you get into short series you need coaches who can pivot to win based on what they are SEEING on the field vs on the ice.

Clear example of this.....Chicago Cubs. That organization continues to operate in the definition of insanity keeping a group of 5 together offensively and hoping that it will show different results and since 2016.....it hasn't. They are good enough to get them to the playoffs but like the 90s Braves all you have at the end is 1 championship.

I give bowman/q credit for making those changes during the cup runs as after 2010 they easily could have been the Cubs and just won "1"....

Radio here is awful. I will listen to Silverman and Waddle from time to time as I enjoy Silverman raging RIGHTFULLY on the Bears but I can't tell you the last time I listened to the score....I like(d) Lawrence Holmes but the rest of the shows are garbage. How Dan Bernstein is still on the air is comical.
- SteveRain

One thing to keep in mind with Beane. He was heavily relying on stats, but he also was working with a payroll that was about 30% of the financially rich teams. His teams were generally very competitive with the fat cats. Since that time every team has drilled down deeper into stats. In particular the Red Sox and Astros rely heavily on fancy stats (and maybe some other illegal means) and have been very successful. Theo and the Cubs attribute some of their success to fancy stats too.

Why are people so intent on a rebuilding team trading away young prospects with potential?
- paulr

To gain prospects with potential at other areas of need. It's not that I am intent on trading away prospects, but the Hawks have a lot more juice in the D-prospects than the forward group. I specifically mentioned Kotkaniemi because he has shown improvement, is big, young (20) and plays an area of need. I have zero idea if anyone in the MTL office would be willing to move him, but it was more an example than a specific.

110% and if we think back to 2007-08.....following season they dealt Wisniewski for Sammy Pahlsson and either that season or early 2010 they jettisoned Barker to Minnesota for Johnsson and Leddy.

You are going to have to replace Keith's spot, not the player as those are mighty big skates to fill....

Biggest thing to this puzzle is when does Bowman and hockey ops pull the plug on one of these young kids where they realize what the original ceiling they thought he had isn't happening, he won't haunt them long term, but they still can get a lot for more........
- SteveRain

They did that with Jokairiju, hopefully Nylander can make a full recovery and can silence his naysayers by being a consistent top 9 forward.

110% and if we think back to 2007-08.....following season they dealt Wisniewski for Sammy Pahlsson and either that season or early 2010 they jettisoned Barker to Minnesota for Johnsson and Leddy.

You are going to have to replace Keith's spot, not the player as those are mighty big skates to fill....

Biggest thing to this puzzle is when does Bowman and hockey ops pull the plug on one of these young kids where they realize what the original ceiling they thought he had isn't happening, he won't haunt them long term, but they still can get a lot for more........
- SteveRain

I'm not writing him, but it seems as though they had pretty good instincts on Jokiharju.

They did that with Jokairiju, hopefully Nylander can make a full recovery and can silence his naysayers by being a consistent top 9 forward.
- LAHawk

Darn it LA!

Absolutely, not only score 1 more goal, more times than not the team that scores the 1st goal in the game usually wins the game.
- BetweenTheDots

Agree, which is why I'm upset at how the Hawks' start games, even going back to Q's tenure. We seem to sleepwalk out of the gate, and only wake up after the other team has controlled the game for 10 to 15 minutes.

First!

Theo, great job as usual.

Interesting TDL has been so quiet, Hawks should do something to bulk up. More small players doesn’t help. 2010 team had a bunch of big, heavy talented players. This team desperately needs that.
- theneek

Thanks, neek.

Like centers in the prospect pipeline, power forwards are the same: bottom 6 talent.

Entwistle, Slavin, Morrison, and Hardman are big bodies that can play a power game but may struggle playing top 6 unless management is fine with them being the 3rd wheel to create space for talented linemates and not put up huge points (i.e. Bickell).

You need these type of players, no doubt. Yet, at least one power forward in the top 6 would be nice. A winger like Killorn or Tuch come to mind.

Thanks Theo - great work.

Even though the team has played overall above what we as fans expected of them so far, I really don't mind if they go on an extended losing streak. I do hope they continue to play well, but reality is this young team has hit a wall, and there is nothing wrong with that. They still need high draft picks. Elite Center depth is lacking on this team.
- powerenforcer

You bet, PE.

If the Hawks can broker their LTIR cap space to take on dead weight contracts and gain 1st rounder or two (i.e. 2021 and 2022), then that would be ideal to gain more high draft picks.

As far as Beaudin goes, I say keep him. I like his defensive game, and if he can improve his puck handling play under pressure in the defensive zone, he will be a pretty decent top 4 and PK. The Hawks need more than just Murphy who is more defense-first.
- biskit67

I would lean on keeping Beaudin, too, unless there's an enticing center prospect coming back in the deal.

Kotkaniemi was the example I used in the blog but I also am iffy on whether he will hit his full potential. I still think he will be a good player in the NHL but his best could end up being Kurashev's best.

If that's the case, then keep Beaudin and groom Kurashev into what Kotkaniemi may top out as.

One thing to keep in mind with Beane. He was heavily relying on stats, but he also was working with a payroll that was about 30% of the financially rich teams. His teams were generally very competitive with the fat cats. Since that time every team has drilled down deeper into stats. In particular the Red Sox and Astros rely heavily on fancy stats (and maybe some other illegal means) and have been very successful. Theo and the Cubs attribute some of their success to fancy stats too.
- -Doh-

Dodgers are strictly analytics based. Everyone wanted Roberts to be fired for being strictly analytical when they lost the 2 world series. (Especially his analytical based pitching decisions rather than going on managerial feel) Lets see if the Dodgers can win a world series in a ture baseball season with the biggest payroll in MLB, they should.

I'm hoping to see more of Kalynuk, he shows promise and like to see if his ability to play without the puck is consistent
- BetweenTheDots

I'm fine with inconsistent play in a young guy when part of that inconsistent play is great!

Thought on Beaudin to Montreal for a center. Yes Bergevin seems to covet him, but who says Marc will be around this off season, especially if Les Canadiens get routed by Toronto in the 1st round of the playoffs.

Piggy backing on the last blog regarding centers in the Hawks future, any chance the Hawks sign Danault as a free agent this summer? He's having an off year offensive wise so maybe his market value will drop. He turned down something like 5M for 6 years from Montreal last off season. Will Stan offer him something similar and would he be willing to accept it? If Toews desn't return he could be 1C for a year or two while Dach matriculates.

Assuming Toews does not return, the Hawks have to do something at the center position. Dach still needs development and I think the Hawks could trade Strome if they obtain Danault or another established center somehow.
- boilermaker100

I could see Bowman kicking the tires on Danault. As others have noted already, the price would have to be right to bring back Danault as he approaches his 30s.

He and Duclair must be kicking themselves for not signing more lucrative deals offered to them last year. Duclair took a massive pay cut to be in Miami.

Danault could be looking at a lot less than what he originally wanted.

Speaking of bringing back former Blackhawks, does anybody know if Vinnie is in tonight?

More skill than Highmore. But maybe Soderberg is back in? anybody but Highmore.
- Popsghostly

Lankinen officially starting.

Vinnie Hinostroza will make his Blackhawks re-debut. Highmore scratched.

You are welcome!

I'll call it now that that the Hawks will not have an entire blue line made up of their own draftees. A lot of their D-man draft picks are the same type of player. They don't have much in the way of Murphy or Zadorov (despite what opinions are of them).

As noted, the Hawks don't have a ton of "blue chips" in the forward ranks. That's not to say they can't develop into that or Stan won't be able to find one elsewhere, but it's not currently evident. If the Hawks could land a player like Kotkaniemi (young, with some experience, and producing) for one of the plethora of D prospects, I think you have to seriously consider it.
- Chunk

Definitely agree that the likelihood that the future blueline is all draft picks or prospects (Kalynuk wasn't drafted by Chicago but he broke into the NHL with the Hawks) is slim to none.

Before the Hawks drafted Reichel, it was between him and Kaiden Guhle who is a mobile D-man who plays with a lot of nasty. I liked where Bowman, Kelley, and crew were going with that and hope that thinking continues for upcoming drafts.

But if physical defenders aren't nabbed in the draft, yes, acquire them through other means like trades or free agency.

Dodgers are strictly analytics based. Everyone wanted Roberts to be fired for being strictly analytical when they lost the 2 world series. (Especially his analytical based pitching decisions rather than going on managerial feel) Lets see if the Dodgers can win a world series in a ture baseball season with the biggest payroll in MLB, they should.
- LAHawk

Sure but baseball analytics can be pinned on each individual player, hockey you have 6 players on the ice plus line changes, baseball analytics far superior to hockey.

I really like Beaudin, understanding that more development is needed. I also understand that one or two of these young dmen will need to be moved to strengthen the team at forward, or for a different type of defenseman. If Beaudin is one that we move, then I want a young forward with size coming back, even if we have to add. Once this team is ready to compete in the playoffs consistently, we will need more size than we currently have. Please note that I’m not implying that we get rid of Dcat or Kane, that type of talent is also needed, but we need to surround them with speed, size, defensive skills, as well as talent, easier said than done.
- Angotti

Could be the guy they move is Boqvist because he can bring back better than a prospect? Hmmm.

So, once the entire staff is vaccinated, and are far enough out from their last shot, will they be allowed to go maskless during games?

Colliton says he's been vaccinated and several other Hawks staff members has been.

Adds that Dr. Terry has been working on setting appointments up for players and staff. But none of the players have been vaccinated yet.

Good morning

I personally just ask myself would the guy be a 1C on a true cup contender....

I just hope Montreal beats Toronto in the playoffs. Or if they pass Winnipeg or Edmonton, 1 of those 2 beats Toronto.
- SteveRain

Apparently you need to be updated on the greatness of the Toronto Maple Leafs per the latest press and media pronouncements. Here is a few:

1) Per Pierre Maguire - Jake Muzzin and Justin Holl (who Stanbo threw in the garbage can after drafting him) have become the shutdown pair every Cup contender needs.

2) Zach Begosian's play this year has been 'incredible.'

3) What Cup contending NHL team trying to win it all wouldn't want great veterans like Spezza, Simmonds and Thornton on their roster.

There you go, the Leafs are pretty much an unstoppable force this year.

Myself, I want the Winnipeg Jets to give the Leafs a vicious pounding in a 7 game series. Begosian, Thornton, Spezza, Simmonds and both their goalies will wind up on IR and the 54 year losing streak will continue to the delight of you, me and Paul.

Could be the guy they move is Boqvist because he can bring back better than a prospect? Hmmm.
- rpeters01

Dang, we finally start to actually develop a d-man - and see positive improvement - and now we trade him away? Not completely out of the question, but bold!

I could see Bowman kicking the tires on Danault. As others have noted already, the price would have to be right to bring back Danault as he approaches his 30s.

He and Duclair must be kicking themselves for not signing more lucrative deals offered to them last year. Duclair took a massive pay cut to be in Miami.

Danault could be looking at a lot less than what he originally wanted.
- Theo Fox

So could Saad.

Could be the guy they move is Boqvist because he can bring back better than a prospect? Hmmm.
- rpeters01

No, just no. I think they have seen and know that his potential is higher than a bunch of the others in the pipeline. They have already seen what shaky D means to the overall record, how much harder it is to find and develop quality D, and also that they are maybe further along in the rebuild than they anticipated. You don't remove what going forward may be your top defenseman,

No, just no. I think they have seen and know that his potential is higher than a bunch of the others in the pipeline. They have already seen what shaky D means to the overall record, how much harder it is to find and develop quality D, and also that they are maybe further along in the rebuild than they anticipated. You don't remove what going forward may be your top defenseman,
- TheTrob

Got to give to get. Mitchell, Beaudin and Kalynuk are a lot of young defense men and there's still more coming behind them.

Y'all can exhale now: Wallmark cleared waivers and is on the taxi squad.

So did Kero from the Stars so Bowman didn't claim another former Hawk. Same with Luke Johnson a few days ago with the Wild waived him.

Y'all can exhale now: Wallmark cleared waivers and is on the taxi squad.

So did Kero from the Stars so Bowman didn't claim another former Hawk. Same with Luke Johnson a few days ago with the Wild waived him.
- Theo Fox

Somewhere Darth just shed a tear. That was his guy for an offseason.