bill in the 2020 draft there was a pretty strong consensus top 12. with lundell being the 12th guy. then maybe a next group of 5-10. Jarvis, mercer, holloway. anrimov, lapeirre, guhle. reichel at the edge of that.
in the 12 there was a top 3 then 9 guys that really depending on the situation any one of them could end up being the best of the 2nd group
Were are the breaks in this draft.
https://www.lines.com/nhl/drafts
- kmw4631
I just figured that bill might have many me, Bill.
2020 had a strong top three, a nice next tier of 13 and the draft choices quickly ramped down.
At the time I had Guhle in that group not Rodian Armirov, and really felt Dawson Mercer a great jackknife centre wing who plays smart and the German kid were in that tier...I expected Braden Schneider to go before Reichel, Dawson, Armirov, mostly because, I simply have limited perceptions and not a NHL scouting group adding to "what I think I see/don't see."
Your question about the tiers in thi=s class is a reasonable but tough one, in that many teams this time have their minds made up not just on the limited looks but on what they scouted and decided the year before.
It does look like the World Junior under 19 will be played and that may be a golden ticket or a pink slip based on one more viewing.
I don't know if these draft prognosticators simply follow each other and adjust their thoughts based on others, but I have never seen a draft where so many players are thought of as top selections and not top selections at the same time.
If you go to the 2021 Draft on Lines.com and click on PLAYER RANKINGS (this for reason a develop put the first list and it only has 200 of the 550 names in the class.)
THAT is where I had them when I started.
You will notice that Dylan Guenther was my first forward at slot one (NOW STILL TWO)
and Owen power was #2 player and now is number one.
I don't think you saw many of the other draft guys with them both sitting there.
And throughout the months, the players names I have heard that are top ten worthy, including mine well I see 17. I dont know if I ever have seen this type of diversity.
I think part of it stems from the size in many defenders, the abilities and upside of som many of the 17 year old forwards and the IQ, Hands and overall general smarts and skill that this draft is full of. It is the coaching the teaching reviews and everything elsel that has enabled so many players to be on the radar to go early.
Believe me, the first time I saw the 3rd Hughes brother being talked about as one of the topmdefendewrs to be drafted, I did more than roll my eyes...There are /were simply too many big quick defenders for them to consider him as "separated" from them.th
Same when Elite Prospects chief scout announced that Willam Ecklund was by far the first choice and from my limited views was starting at then end of my second round, and is presently the 4th best forward if teams pass on the defenders....
The Michigan freshman are all worthy of consideration by me if I'm a GM picking high.
Chancy to pick a defender ? Be careful?
I don't care if Kent Johnson ends up on the wing (either wing), because he can score and will score at the next level. Boo the frank hoo if he isn't a centre.
Same goes for the predictions that Matthew Beniers is only 2nd line upside as a centre. I saw the World Junior USAand whenever he was out there no matter what zone he was in the middle of the action, or leading it or causing it. If youy draft early you wanna hockey player, right? There he is. I just don'd which I would take.
If Owen Power scares you, or Simon Edvinsson scares you, (what could scare you about Brandt Clarke?) or you don't see the upside I do in Carson Lambos, then take a forward!
If you really think Hughes can be an NHL defender, by all means select him!
Just don't be surprised when some snags 6' 5" USA defender4 Roman Schmidt without fear later. Or the BCHL Makar clone Corson Ceulemans some love, or the Sweden (Anton Olsson), the two Russians (Daniil Chayka & Artem Grushnikov) and the Czech (Stanislav Svozil) when they get picked.
Bobby McKenzie says there are two goalies going early. Jesper Wallstedt and Sebastian Cossa. If that happens, that thickens the list.
It as an eyeopener when I went to MyNHLdraft and the comments on each and every player were so diverse and so many complimentary, and Although it will not fog my opinion, there are a lot of guys that are locked in to go early, more than there are slots.
I am just saying with the strong love I keep seeing for Fabian Lysell, Oskar Olausson, and Simon Robertsson, you cannot close you eyes on Cole Sillenger. I heard he can't skate. LOL. I don't care where he plays ,a s he already does" play."
Same with Chad Lucius, out because of the knee. He has hands that put the puck where he wants it. You gonna pass on him?
Oh, I failed to mention three other Canadian Junior centres and Raty...
so to answer on the tiers:
No top generation tier players are in the class until they develop and are.
a) There is a top nine that all could go first.
b) But there are also at very last three more prospects that could easily go in that top 8 and depending upon what teams think maybe more.
c) at slot 13, I see at least another half-dozen that you could consider enough to call them possible top ten guys.
e) so at 18 I would say you start a tier that backups into the middle of the second round, and to me that is extremely rare.
In general,this is the first draft in years where there seems to be first round talent up to slot 29, in that you probably can get quy who plays for your team.