Jeremy Laura: Detroit’s Free Agents - RFA edition

Update - Larkin done for the season. Last night the guys stepped up big, but it could be a rough run to the end

Vranna $4.25 x 3-5
Bert $4.15 x 2 or $4.5 x 6
Hronek $2.25 x2
Erne $1.5 x 2-3
Raz $1.5 x2
Sveth $.9M x2
Djoos $1.125 x 1
Cholo $.975 x 1-2
Lindstrom $.950 x2
Brome $ $874,125 x 2 2 way the 1st year, if that can be done and start him in GR or sign him a 1yr at $874,125 (Qualifying offer) and trade him (a throw in on another trade)
Note: all of these are at the lower end of fair value. I doubt Vranna would sign at $4.25 x 5, he might opt for a short "show me" deal and bet that he can go over $6M long term on the next deal, Bert also may choose that route, his next deal will be as a FA, so it is better to lock him up for about 5 yrs if possible.

Update - Larkin done for the season. Last night the guys stepped up big, but it could be a rough run to the end
- Jeremy Laura

I didn’t see the hit, but reading your last blog it would appear yet another BS cheap-shot. Parros is a d-bag and players are paying for it with their health. If I believed in giving control to Social Media, I’d send a message to him. Reckon the old-fashioned way will work in this case. Parros never lost his ability to let a cheap shot pass him by when played...wonder what changed....🤔🤔

Vranna $4.25 x 3-5
Bert $4.15 x 2 or $4.5 x 6
Hronek $2.25 x2
Erne $1.5 x 2-3
Raz $1.5 x2
Sveth $.9M x2
Djoos $1.125 x 1
Cholo $.975 x 1-2
Lindstrom $.950 x2
Brome $ $874,125 x 2 2 way the 1st year, if that can be done and start him in GR or sign him a 1yr at $874,125 (Qualifying offer) and trade him (a throw in on another trade)
Note: all of these are at the lower end of fair value. I doubt Vranna would sign at $4.25 x 5, he might opt for a short "show me" deal and bet that he can go over $6M long term on the next deal, Bert also may choose that route, his next deal will be as a FA, so it is better to lock him up for about 5 yrs if possible.


- HenryHockey

I think Djoos & Cholo may be gone. Djoos MIGHT get a qualifier, then flipped at the TDL. By that time, I’d opine that Mo Sides will have solidified his spot on the roster. Cholo needs a change and should be gone. Maybe a 2-way deal? Brome’ will get a 2-way as well. Hronek, Bert, Erne, Ras, Svech (I still think he needs to be traded...), Smith are all back.

Smith should have a roster spot in the fall. We need his grit & character. He’s damn devoted to the club & will do whatever it takes to help his team. I like him, LOTS.

Vrana will be back, maybe $4mx4...I imagine Bert’ll get about the same. I don’t see The Captain emptying the bank at this point. Would also opine that Frans will be a buy-out, but his will be the last for a while.

I think Djoos & Cholo may be gone. Djoos MIGHT get a qualifier, then flipped at the TDL. By that time, I’d opine that Mo Sides will have solidified his spot on the roster. Cholo needs a change and should be gone. Maybe a 2-way deal? Brome’ will get a 2-way as well. Hronek, Bert, Erne, Ras, Svech (I still think he needs to be traded...), Smith are all back.

Smith should have a roster spot in the fall. We need his grit & character. He’s damn devoted to the club & will do whatever it takes to help his team. I like him, LOTS.

Vrana will be back, maybe $4mx4...I imagine Bert’ll get about the same. I don’t see The Captain emptying the bank at this point. Would also opine that Frans will be a buy-out, but his will be the last for a while.
- mcmastermike1968

The only real keepers for under $2M on the current RW roster are Raz, Erne and Lindstrom, the rest may be let go or traded.....hopefully with picks for better LD and C. Not a whole lot to chose in FA for those positions, so they may have to trade for a couple. I think Stevie could fill a position of need with an over the cap team like Tampa for one of those needs. And of course there will be plenty of goalies to chose from in FA for a 2 year deal. Hopefully Bernier....

As for Cholo....
I wonder if Vancouver would move Nate Shmidt for cap reasons. Wings could package Cholo, who is from near there, and a late 2nd for Schmidt and that would give the Wings a good 1st or 2nd pairing LD. I know Nate is not a true #1 pairing, but he would be in Detroit for a while. Then Van would have space to sign Hughes to a bridge deal and Edler to a 1 x $1.5M deal.

Paying players based on their talent level is essential. Below are my estimates of what Steve will be willing to offer these FAs.

Vranna $4.5 x 3 [Talent = Solid second line winger]
Bertuzzi $3.75 x 3 [Talent = Second line winger]
Hronek $3 x2 [Youthful. Upside = 3/4 defender = bridge deal]
Erne $2.5 x 1 [Talent = Third/Fourth line winger having career season]
Raz $3 x 3 [Youthful Centre. Upside = Second line center = bridge deal]
Djoos $1.5 x 1 [Talent = 5/6 defender]
Cholowski $1 x 2 [Youthful defender. Upside 3/4 defender = bridge deal]
Lindstrom $1 x 3 [Youthful defender. Upside 3/4 defender = bridge deal]
Brome $0 [Talent = KHL level]

You will never get Hronek for 2.25, the guy is a stud and shoud get around 4 mil in a depressed market.

You will never get Hronek for 2.25, the guy is a stud and shoud get around 4 mil in a depressed market.
- joegreif17

I guessed 3 - 3.5. He’s been unreal for this team. You’re probably also right about 4 million.

I guessed 3 - 3.5. He’s been unreal for this team. You’re probably also right about 4 million.
- Jeremy Laura

Cernak is a comparable and got a tick less than $3M. Yes Hronek should get $3-3.5 M, my figure is low.

I think Yzerman will let Brome walk. I love the hustle but I don't think he fits into the long term plans. He's gonna be 27 next year and can't get into the lineup with 5 forwards injured. The writing is on the wall.

I also think it's unlikely that all three of Djoos, Cholowski, and Lindstrom will be qualified, with Seider coming over and probably at least one low cost veteran UFA competing for spots. I think they will pick just one or two. I suspect Djoos is gone, Cholowski stays, Lindstrom could go either way. Love what Djoos brought this year but he was always a stopgap and Seider's apparent rapid development makes him superfluous IMO.

Also I hope we don't overpay for Hronek. A lot was asked of him this season and he was okay, but on a good team I think he's a No. 4 at best.

The only real keepers for under $2M on the current RW roster are Raz, Erne and Lindstrom, the rest may be let go or traded.....hopefully with picks for better LD and C. Not a whole lot to chose in FA for those positions, so they may have to trade for a couple. I think Stevie could fill a position of need with an over the cap team like Tampa for one of those needs. And of course there will be plenty of goalies to chose from in FA for a 2 year deal. Hopefully Bernier....
- HenryHockey

I’ve not done a deep-dive on many prospects, but I would offer that any trades would involve a G, LD, & C prospects that need a bit more time to develop. My take on it is that any move made going forward would align with a 3 year plan for contention. So we load up on prospects & picks that all should hit about the same time.

I see Ryan, Fabbs, Larkin, Hronek, Vrana (still not sold that he’ll sign - he is impressive...) would be the veterans (the glue, if you will) that bring cohesiveness, etc... The “kids” will be relying on the “vets” and HockeyTown will be well on the way to re-birth.

As for Cholo....
I wonder if Vancouver would move Nate Shmidt for cap reasons. Wings could package Cholo, who is from near there, and a late 2nd for Schmidt and that would give the Wings a good 1st or 2nd pairing LD. I know Nate is not a true #1 pairing, but he would be in Detroit for a while. Then Van would have space to sign Hughes to a bridge deal and Edler to a 1 x $1.5M deal.
- HenryHockey

Hey, H. Schmidt has a huge upside. That deal could work, meets the needs of both teams and gives Cholo a chance at re-birth. He’s a good guy, but isn’t developing/maturing under Blash. And face it; Blash is back for another year, so that further erodes Cholo’s trade value. The sooner we can push him out, the better the return.

Paying players based on their talent level is essential. Below are my estimates of what Steve will be willing to offer these FAs.

Vranna $4.5 x 3
- Jackie Daytona[Talent = Solid second line winger]
Bertuzzi $3.75 x 3 [Talent = Second line winger]
Hronek $3 x2 [Youthful. Upside = 3/4 defender = bridge deal]
Erne $2.5 x 1 [Talent = Third/Fourth line winger having career season]
Raz $3 x 3 [Youthful Centre. Upside = Second line center = bridge deal]
Djoos $1.5 x 1 [Talent = 5/6 defender]
Cholowski $1 x 2 [Youthful defender. Upside 3/4 defender = bridge deal]
Lindstrom $1 x 3 [Youthful defender. Upside 3/4 defender = bridge deal]
Brome $0 [Talent = KHL level]

I think Brome’ needs a year or so to really find his groove in the NHL, but his age doesn’t lend itself to that; methinks he’s gone.
Lindstrom’s shown some amazing talent this year, blocks, incredible out-let passes, mind-blowing vision & anticipation. He can be really good.
Cholo should be gone; see above.
Djoos is probably gone.
Hronek gets, and deserves, $4m +/4. He’ll get better over time, but he’s the best D we have.

I guessed 3 - 3.5. He’s been unreal for this team. You’re probably also right about 4 million.
- Jeremy Laura

Agree with around $4m/4. Puts him as the cagy vet who mentors Lindstrom & Seider. I don’t think he’d get that from many other teams. He’s a minute-logging machine and does a damn good job.