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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Flyers Gameday: 5/4/21 vs PIT
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corduroy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: “How many times is she gonna ask this f'n question?”, NT
Joined: 12.09.2006

May 4 @ 1:48 PM ET
The league has spoken and it says vigilante justice is the law of the land. Time for players to take matters into their own hands. What a league.
- StepfordSam



Good thing the Flyers have Sam
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

May 4 @ 2:03 PM ET
Good thing the Fluyers have Sam
- corduroy



For a few more games anyway...
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

May 4 @ 2:05 PM ET
Luckily the majority of people who post here weren't watching hockey in the 70s and 80s. They would have been so offended...... would have held their breath retreated to the basement and fired up the Atari.
- PLindbergh31

I haven’t watched the play yet but I’m guessing whatever Wilson did was a pretty standard goon play from the 90s. I’m all for safety but the sport is softer than ever. Unless he Burtuzzi’d someone I’m guessing Ek’s ban him for life take is as poor as the rest of his takes.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

May 4 @ 2:11 PM ET
I haven’t watched the play yet but I’m guessing whatever Wilson did was a pretty standard goon play from the 90s. I’m all for safety but the sport is softer than ever. Unless he Burtuzzi’d someone I’m guessing Ek’s ban him for life take is as poor as the rest of his takes.
- hereticpride

It was a deliberate slamming a guy to the ice with no bucket on. Just impossible to suspend something like that because it’s a very slippery slope. Guys getting thrown to the ground happens all the time but this was Tom Wilson trying to hurt a guy.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 4 @ 2:14 PM ET
You do? Who is the better all-around center? Couturier.
- bmeltzer


Bill (and others from yesterday's thread):

I would unhesitatingly choose Barzal over Couturier for the Flyers now. I would also unhesitatingly say Couts is significantly the better player now. A summary of the reasons, b/c they keep coming up (this is more anti Couturier and less pro Barzal):

1. Age. Couturier is 28.5, Barzal is just short of 24. Barzal's most productive years are ahead, Couts is statistically very likely to be at his peak. There is a lot of articles about peaking and decline, see this for example . Essentially, a player's impact seems to peak around 24-27, gradually decline, and then sharply decline after 30.

2. Age of team: As this season has surely conclusively shown, the young players we have are very likely not going to mature in the next 2 years to make a run for the cup. Based on this Barzal may hit his peak, which could very reasonably be at least Couturier's peak, at a time more aligned with the team's fortunes.

3. Contract. A Couturier contract, signed in his 30th year may burden the team significantly down the road because of sharply declining value for $ down the line.

4. Playoff performance Many people here seem to think that the goal in the NHL is to win the President's Cup, and constantly look at regular season stats as the decider. Surely playoff stats should carry more weight. Barzal is 0.8 ppg in his young career over 30 games. Couturier is .56 ppg over 39. Even that is misleading. Take away 2 hat tricks against Pens in 2012 and 2018, he has 13 points in 37 games (less than half of Barzal). Last year, a 35 year Dman reduced him to invisibility: he had 3 assists in 6 games.

5. Injuries. Couturier has had many significant issues with knees and shoulder. He missed time in the last 2 playoffs, he has missed time this year, in 15-16 and 16-17 he played only 75% of the games. These sort of injuries tend to accumulate and have a depreciating effect on the body in one's 30s. AFAIK, Barzal has not missed more than 5 games total in his 5 years in all situations (playoff and regular season combined).

EDIT:


In 5 on 5 stats/60 mins Couturier ranks 16th in point production among guys who play center exclusively (weeding out guys like Giroux) over the last 3 years. He is marginally ahead of Mike Z and Barzal, (by less than 9 points over a season).

This is very similar to his rankings among the annual nhl.com lists, in the list in ESPN+ of assessments by players/GMs/Personnel. He has never finished in the top 20 of Hart vote getters.

If we factor in his puck possession stats from the same link, he is #8 among centers.

All together, the data, and the peer and expert assessment seem to all say the same story: He is a bonafide 1C, but about an average one.



Dkos
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Gritty, PA
Joined: 01.15.2007

May 4 @ 2:18 PM ET
Good thing the Flyers have Sam
- corduroy


I’ll finish the sentence for you... sitting in the press box so he doesn’t hurt himself trying to go after someone.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

May 4 @ 2:19 PM ET
It was a deliberate slamming a guy to the ice with no bucket on. Just impossible to suspend something like that because it’s a very slippery slope. Guys getting thrown to the ground happens all the time but this was Tom Wilson trying to hurt a guy.
- ClaudeFather

Just watched. Yeah, you’re basically gonna have to ban fighting all together to eliminate that from happening.

I like the rule that any player without a helmet has to promptly remove themselves from the ice. They need to start better enforcing the rule that ripping a guys helmet off is a penalty. Honestly they should make it a major imo.
NC Flyers Fan
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 07.19.2018

May 4 @ 2:35 PM ET

Yesterday, today...any day is a great day to beat the Pens!

wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

May 4 @ 2:45 PM ET
5K for Wilson, sure he is saying 5K well worth it
THE EVIL WITHIN
Season Ticket Holder
Location: NJ
Joined: 11.20.2017

May 4 @ 2:46 PM ET
For a few more games anyway...
- MBFlyerfan

Flyers dumping him?
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

May 4 @ 2:48 PM ET
Flyers dumping him?
- THE EVIL WITHIN



Maybe they resign him but I don't see why. I think he wants a legitimate NHL shot and I don't think he is going to get it here with York and Zemula knocking on the door.
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

May 4 @ 2:48 PM ET
5K for Wilson, sure he is saying 5K well worth it
- wcorvette


They definitely need to up the max allowable fine. It’s a question of how much the players are willing to give up to protect each other because they have all the leverage in that part of the CBA
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

May 4 @ 2:51 PM ET
I mean, in the pantheon of epic hockey transgressions, does that even register?
- Tomahawk

Too many big words
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

May 4 @ 2:52 PM ET
They definitely need to up the max allowable fine. It’s a question of how much the players are willing to give up to protect each other because they have all the leverage in that part of the CBA
- hereticpride


yeah they need an escalator. I get helmet off and in the moment it is tough but they need to be hit with a big enough fine to stop them the next time....
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

May 4 @ 2:58 PM ET
yeah they need an escalator. I get helmet off and in the moment it is tough but they need to be hit with a big enough fine to stop them the next time....
- wcorvette

Exactly. 5k is nothing to these guys and that’s the max amount solely due to greed. It needs to up’d to at least 10k and i’d go as far to say ripping a helmet off should be an automatic game(and fine)
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

May 4 @ 3:11 PM ET
Just watched. Yeah, you’re basically gonna have to ban fighting all together to eliminate that from happening.

I like the rule that any player without a helmet has to promptly remove themselves from the ice. They need to start better enforcing the rule that ripping a guys helmet off is a penalty. Honestly they should make it a major imo.

- hereticpride

I thought what Wilson did to the first guy, clearly down and defenseless was much worse than anything he did to Panarin. I see Panarin getting whipped around the like a tag doll, it doesn’t even look like Panarin’s head connected with the ice on the second drop.

I hate Wilson. On the second look, I think he deserves than a fine. Wilson just doesn’t care about anyone and this is where, if it were against us, you miss having Wayne Simmonds at any cost in the line up.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

May 4 @ 3:33 PM ET
felt we could all use this, miss Simmer


https://www.youtube.com/w...QyYCQaXFv0Ra9rzz8jq6lmgSY
black_francis
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Bumfuck, NJ
Joined: 01.10.2015

May 4 @ 3:35 PM ET
I wouldn’t mind giroux and jvr as the veteran presence. Would like to see Jake gone. Super bummed with Hayes this year. Since no one will take ghost I’d say keep him and make moves to bolster the d. I’d make tk, Patrick, Myers, and possibly Sanheim in the right deal, all available. Resign Morin for cheap. Hope Hagg doesn’t get taken in ED. No more Braun. Go after a true number 1 D a la Seth Jones. Find a way to get Brady Tkachuk out of Ottawa. Would be a great flyer.
Scoob
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: love is love
Joined: 06.29.2006

May 4 @ 3:41 PM ET
Bill (and others from yesterday's thread):

I would unhesitatingly choose Barzal over Couturier for the Flyers now. I would also unhesitatingly say Couts is significantly the better player now. A summary of the reasons, b/c they keep coming up (this is more anti Couturier and less pro Barzal):

1. Age. Couturier is 28.5, Barzal is just short of 24. Barzal's most productive years are ahead, Couts is statistically very likely to be at his peak. There is a lot of articles about peaking and decline, see this for example . Essentially, a player's impact seems to peak around 24-27, gradually decline, and then sharply decline after 30.

2. Age of team: As this season has surely conclusively shown, the young players we have are very likely not going to mature in the next 2 years to make a run for the cup. Based on this Barzal may hit his peak, which could very reasonably be at least Couturier's peak, at a time more aligned with the team's fortunes.

3. Contract. A Couturier contract, signed in his 30th year may burden the team significantly down the road because of sharply declining value for $ down the line.

4. Playoff performance Many people here seem to think that the goal in the NHL is to win the President's Cup, and constantly look at regular season stats as the decider. Surely playoff stats should carry more weight. Barzal is 0.8 ppg in his young career over 30 games. Couturier is .56 ppg over 39. Even that is misleading. Take away 2 hat tricks against Pens in 2012 and 2018, he has 13 points in 37 games (less than half of Barzal). Last year, a 35 year Dman reduced him to invisibility: he had 3 assists in 6 games.

5. Injuries. Couturier has had many significant issues with knees and shoulder. He missed time in the last 2 playoffs, he has missed time this year, in 15-16 and 16-17 he played only 75% of the games. These sort of injuries tend to accumulate and have a depreciating effect on the body in one's 30s. AFAIK, Barzal has not missed more than 5 games total in his 5 years in all situations (playoff and regular season combined).


- PT21


Nice writeup. I hate the "take away..." comment though. Can't take them away
hereticpride
New Jersey Devils
Location: HEY. Does this pole still work?, NJ
Joined: 01.14.2011

May 4 @ 3:43 PM ET
I wouldn’t mind giroux and jvr as the veteran presence. Would like to see Jake gone. Super bummed with Hayes this year. Since no one will take ghost I’d say keep him and make moves to bolster the d. I’d make tk, Patrick, Myers, and possibly Sanheim in the right deal, all available. Resign Morin for cheap. Hope Hagg doesn’t get taken in ED. No more Braun. Go after a true number 1 D a la Seth Jones. Find a way to get Brady Tkachuk out of Ottawa. Would be a great flyer.
- black_francis

I’ve gotta think Hayes has been playing injured. It’s just feels like one of those years where a player just completely falls off a cliff then you find out in the summer that they had hernia/abdominal/etc surgery.

I agree about Jake but I think they’re stuck with that contract for at least another year before it’s really moveable. I see JVR going to Seattle but wouldn’t rule out Ghost with the points he’s been putting up lately. If Seattle can get a rangey steady stay at home D man to pair him with Ghost could be a nice option for them.
SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

May 4 @ 3:52 PM ET
Bill (and others from yesterday's thread):

I would unhesitatingly choose Barzal over Couturier for the Flyers now. I would also unhesitatingly say Couts is significantly the better player now. A summary of the reasons, b/c they keep coming up (this is more anti Couturier and less pro Barzal):

1. Age. Couturier is 28.5, Barzal is just short of 24. Barzal's most productive years are ahead, Couts is statistically very likely to be at his peak. There is a lot of articles about peaking and decline, see this for example . Essentially, a player's impact seems to peak around 24-27, gradually decline, and then sharply decline after 30.

2. Age of team: As this season has surely conclusively shown, the young players we have are very likely not going to mature in the next 2 years to make a run for the cup. Based on this Barzal may hit his peak, which could very reasonably be at least Couturier's peak, at a time more aligned with the team's fortunes.

3. Contract. A Couturier contract, signed in his 30th year may burden the team significantly down the road because of sharply declining value for $ down the line.

4. Playoff performance Many people here seem to think that the goal in the NHL is to win the President's Cup, and constantly look at regular season stats as the decider. Surely playoff stats should carry more weight. Barzal is 0.8 ppg in his young career over 30 games. Couturier is .56 ppg over 39. Even that is misleading. Take away 2 hat tricks against Pens in 2012 and 2018, he has 13 points in 37 games (less than half of Barzal). Last year, a 35 year Dman reduced him to invisibility: he had 3 assists in 6 games.

5. Injuries. Couturier has had many significant issues with knees and shoulder. He missed time in the last 2 playoffs, he has missed time this year, in 15-16 and 16-17 he played only 75% of the games. These sort of injuries tend to accumulate and have a depreciating effect on the body in one's 30s. AFAIK, Barzal has not missed more than 5 games total in his 5 years in all situations (playoff and regular season combined).

EDIT:


In 5 on 5 stats/60 mins Couturier ranks 16th in point production among guys who play center exclusively (weeding out guys like Giroux) over the last 3 years. He is marginally ahead of Mike Z and Barzal, (by less than 9 points over a season).

This is very similar to his rankings among the annual nhl.com lists, in the list in ESPN+ of assessments by players/GMs/Personnel. He has never finished in the top 20 of Hart vote getters.

If we factor in his puck possession stats from the same link, he is #8 among centers.

All together, the data, and the peer and expert assessment seem to all say the same story: He is a bonafide 1C, but about an average one.

- PT21


Thank you for doing the research on what I’ve been saying. I’ll also add Barzal plays in a complete defense first system. And Mika last year just starting to take over #1c roll mainly. And I’d also add Barzal and Mika more likely to take over at any time of game with dynamic plays. Coots more a steady no thrills type. Great for 2c roll not so much 1c
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 4 @ 4:16 PM ET
Nice writeup. I hate the "take away..." comment though. Can't take them away
- Scoob


Ok how is this: in the playoffs, 97% of the time, your center is producing at a 27 point a season pace; 3% of the time he is producing at a 360 point a season pace.

Just to drive home the discrepancy.

In the playoffs, teams commit much more to team D, shutting down passing lanes, back-checking etc. Your #1C has to be more of an offensive threat than the #s above.

Edit: correction - 94 and 6, resp.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

May 4 @ 4:22 PM ET
Thank you for doing the research on what I’ve been saying. I’ll also add Barzal plays in a complete defense first system. And Mika last year just starting to take over #1c roll mainly. And I’d also add Barzal and Mika more likely to take over at any time of game with dynamic plays. Coots more a steady no thrills type. Great for 2c roll not so much 1c
- SMS4016


Barzal was producing at 0.85 ppg before Lee went down. Since then, its been 0.72 ppg. So, the gap would be even narrower. As far as 5-on-5 point production over last 3 years goes, Barzal and Couturier are almost the same.
SMS4016
Joined: 01.27.2011

May 4 @ 4:28 PM ET
Barzal was producing at 0.85 ppg before Lee went down. Since then, its been 0.72 ppg. So, the gap would be even narrower. As far as 5-on-5 point production over last 3 years goes, Barzal and Couturier are almost the same.
- PT21


That’s why I added Barzal plays on a defense heavy system. What would his number be on another team
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

May 4 @ 5:16 PM ET
Too many big words
- SuperSchennBros


Avery hit head funny. Simon McSorley hit head bad.
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