I guess I'll give thia a couple comments.

Hardest thing to see is the Matheson trade. I know AZ needs defensemen and has cap space so it's a good target but still think he's hard to move. But I'd just change Pettersson.

Like that Ceci fits in.

No idea what Foligno gets, like the one year target with the nightmare the following off-season brings.
- Tojo.

Yeah, hard to gauge what Foligno gets and I don’t envision any team giving much more than two years, but he just seems like an obvious Hextall-target to me.

I kinda threw poop against the wall with the MM trade. I still don’t know if his perceived value has changed, but regardless his contract will be tough, but I think more doable than before.

I don’t think that’s true. In the case of UFA’s, they are actually technically exposed by a team. There’s a certain window Seattle has before the expansion draft to talk to pending UFAs and try to work out a contract. If they reach an agreement with a UFA, then that’s their pick from that team. We just don’t see that happening because there’s no upside for the expansion team. If they come to an agreement with a UFA, then they can just wait until the normal UFA period and take someone else from the team.

So yes, Seattle can take pending free agents in the expansion draft. It’s just that there’s no incentive to take UFAs. Either you have an agreement and can wait to make it official while taking a different piece, or there’s no agreement and you just gassed a pick on a guy that will immediately walk. There’s plenty of reason to pick an RFA since teams in the league don’t offer sheet.
- Victoro311

According to nhl.com, a team must expose two forwards and one defenseman who are under contract for 2021-2022 and who played in 40 games this past season or 70 games over the past two seasons. This would seem to exclude RFAs who, like UFAs, are not "under contract for 2021-2022." In other words, Seattle can negotiate with a free agent, but if the Kraken sign that free agent, then the team for whom he played can't lose anyone else in the expansion draft. That's why I suspect that the protected lists will have quite a few surprises - every GM likely will have talked with Ron Francis about who he would like to have from a given roster in lieu of signing one of that team's attractive RFAs.


https://www.nhl.com/news/...c-302586918?tid=281011650

According to nhl.com, a team must expose two forwards and one defenseman who are under contract for 2021-2022 and who played in 40 games this past season or 70 games over the past two seasons. This would seem to exclude RFAs who, like UFAs, are not "under contract for 2021-2022." In other words, Seattle can negotiate with a free agent, but if the Kraken sign that free agent, then the team for whom he played can't lose anyone else in the expansion draft. That's why I suspect that the protected lists will have quite a few surprises - every GM likely will have talked with Ron Francis about who he would like to have from a given roster in lieu of signing one of that team's attractive RFAs.


https://www.nhl.com/news/...c-302586918?tid=281011650
- Florida Penguin

That's minimum requirements.

According to nhl.com, a team must expose two forwards and one defenseman who are under contract for 2021-2022 and who played in 40 games this past season or 70 games over the past two seasons. This would seem to exclude RFAs who, like UFAs, are not "under contract for 2021-2022." In other words, Seattle can negotiate with a free agent, but if the Kraken sign that free agent, then the team for whom he played can't lose anyone else in the expansion draft. That's why I suspect that the protected lists will have quite a few surprises - every GM likely will have talked with Ron Francis about who he would like to have from a given roster in lieu of signing one of that team's attractive RFAs.


https://www.nhl.com/news/...c-302586918?tid=281011650
- Florida Penguin

You’re misunderstanding the point of the rule. The exposure rule that you need to expose guys that are under contract is so that a team can’t expose just free agents. In a situation where a team only has 7 forwards under they wouldn’t be able to get away with doing the 7, 3, 1 and only having UFAs exposed, they’d have to do the 4, 4, 1. Seattle can still pick from the UFAs and RFAs for the actual pick. If Blueger is exposed, he doesn’t count towards our exposure requirement, but he can be taken and his RFA rights would then belong to Seattle.

I don’t think that’s true. In the case of UFA’s, they are actually technically exposed by a team. There’s a certain window Seattle has before the expansion draft to talk to pending UFAs and try to work out a contract. If they reach an agreement with a UFA, then that’s their pick from that team. We just don’t see that happening because there’s no upside for the expansion team. If they come to an agreement with a UFA, then they can just wait until the normal UFA period and take someone else from the team.

So yes, Seattle can take pending free agents in the expansion draft. It’s just that there’s no incentive to take UFAs. Either you have an agreement and can wait to make it official while taking a different piece, or there’s no agreement and you just gassed a pick on a guy that will immediately walk. There’s plenty of reason to pick an RFA since teams in the league don’t offer sheet.
- Victoro311

It did happen last expansion draft with Engelland so it is possible. Was looking it back up and even he was surprised they didn't just wait, but that apparently had a lot to do with them not wanting anyone else from Calgary so it's unlikely. I guess the upside is like trading for rights where you want to make sure a guy doesn't hear other offers.

It did happen last expansion draft with Engelland so it is possible. Was looking it back up and even he was surprised they didn't just wait, but that apparently had a lot to do with them not wanting anyone else from Calgary so it's unlikely. I guess the upside is like trading for rights where you want to make sure a guy doesn't hear other offers.
- Tojo.

That’s true. I had completely forgotten Engo was a UFA.

Barring an absolute onslaught of a team, pittsburgh has pretty easily the highest scoring team in the lg. I find that incredibly impressive with all the aging out of prime core players, malkin missing lots of time, and the standard multiple hundred man games lost.

Barring an absolute onslaught of a team, pittsburgh has pretty easily the highest scoring team in the lg. I find that incredibly impressive with all the aging out of prime core players, malkin missing lots of time, and the standard multiple hundred man games lost.
- 10inchTerror

I'm cautiously optimistic. I like the look of this team. So much depth. But I felt good last year too and that didn't turn out so well.

I'm cautiously optimistic. I like the look of this team. So much depth. But I felt good last year too and that didn't turn out so well.
- Tojo.

The depth scoring this year is so much better though. I'm really high on this team. Best depth we have had since 16. Maybe even better if you take into account this 4th line is definitely better than that one.

The depth scoring this year is so much better though. I'm really high on this team. Best depth we have had since 16. Maybe even better if you take into account this 4th line is definitely better than that one.
- burgh4life87

HBK was literally a 1st line caliber line though. That top 9 was absolutely stacked. I don’t think the Blueger checking unit is good enough to overcome just how incredible our top 9 was at scoring. I love the checking unit, but there really is diminishing returns on having a great 4th line given ice time.

Also our most stacked forward group was actually the following season. We added Guentzel, Malkin was back in form after the injuries of the prior season, Sheary and Rust were a year older and better with Sheary having a career year as a top 6 forward and Rust showing flashes of the top 6 forward he would soon become. Like, we had Hornqvist, Kunitz, and Hagelin rotating down to the 4th line because we couldn’t fit all of our top 9 forwards into the actual top 9. If Letang hadn’t gotten injured causing our transition game to fall apart, that team would have had claim for the best team ever assembled in the salary cap era.

HBK was literally a 1st line caliber line though. That top 9 was absolutely stacked. I don’t think the Blueger checking unit is good enough to overcome just how incredible our top 9 was at scoring. I love the checking unit, but there really is diminishing returns on having a great 4th line given ice time.

Also our most stacked forward group was actually the following season. We added Guentzel, Malkin was back in form after the injuries of the prior season, Sheary and Rust were a year older and better with Sheary having a career year as a top 6 forward and Rust showing flashes of the top 6 forward he would soon become. Like, we had Hornqvist, Kunitz, and Hagelin rotating down to the 4th line because we couldn’t fit all of our top 9 forwards into the actual top 9. If Letang hadn’t gotten injured causing our transition game to fall apart, that team would have had claim for the best team ever assembled in the salary cap era.
- Victoro311

This is the highest scoring team the Pens have had when Crosby and Malkin aren't on the ice at 5v5. Their depth is different. They have a plus 18 goal differential, best since 07-08. I know those names have weight because of the cup wins, but this team's bottom six has the highest goals per 60 of any in the Crosby Malkin era.

I'm cautiously optimistic. I like the look of this team. So much depth. But I felt good last year too and that didn't turn out so well.
- Tojo.

I didn’t feel good at all last year. I felt there were too many question marks on the roster and the defense just wasn’t playing at the level they are now, not to mention the level of commitment to team defense they have this year as opposed to last year.

Last year and the year before, they IMO didn’t have commitment to supporting each other on both ends of the ice. They seemed to think they could just get it deep, rely on talent and hope goaltending saves them when the puck goes the other way.

MM in practice wearing a full face shield.

I didn’t feel good at all last year. I felt there were too many question marks on the roster and the defense just wasn’t playing at the level they are now, not to mention the level of commitment to team defense they have this year as opposed to last year.

Last year and the year before, they IMO didn’t have commitment to supporting each other on both ends of the ice. They seemed to think they could just get it deep, rely on talent and hope goaltending saves them when the puck goes the other way.
- Rinosaur

I didn't feel good.about last years either. I feel better about this year. But am still realistic about our chances. Last year I was secretly hoping that we would have won the Lafreniere draft more than a couple of series only to not win the cup.

I feel better if we were completely healthy, but I know that won't happen

I didn't feel good.about last years either. I feel better about this year. But am still realistic about our chances. Last year I was secretly hoping that we would have won the Lafreniere draft more than a couple of series only to not win the cup.

I feel better if we were completely healthy, but I know that won't happen
- Beatnic57

Look, the Pens could get swept again. Anything is possible, but I will say this; as heartbroken as I would be for the Pens to get ousted in the first round, at least I feel confident it likely wouldn’t be out of a lack of effort, playing a poor system or questionable coaching decisions for either line combinations or unwise player deployment.

At least from what’s going on in the skate today, it seems like everyone should be ready for Game 1. If the playoffs started tomorrow? We’d probably have a problem lol

This is the highest scoring team the Pens have had when Crosby and Malkin aren't on the ice at 5v5. Their depth is different. They have a plus 18 goal differential, best since 07-08. I know those names have weight because of the cup wins, but this team's bottom six has the highest goals per 60 of any in the Crosby Malkin era.
- burgh4life87

I was interested and did the math. Here are the numbers for the bottom six groups at 5v5 of the three seasons in question:

2015/16 group of Kessel, Hagelin, Bonino, Cullen, Kuhnhackl, and Fehr
Pts/60: 1.85
G/60: 0.77

2016/17 group of Bonino, Kunitz, Hornqvist, Hagelin, Rust, and Cullen
Pts/60: 1.64
G/60: .067

2020/21 group of Carter, McCann, Rodrigues, Blueger, Tanev, and ZAR
Pts/60: 1.79
G/60: 0.57

Notes: I found it tough to get an accurate number for 2017 because the lines were so fluid then. I may have inflated things by not including Scott Wilson in favor of Rust, Kunitz, or Hornqvist who played up the lineup a significant amount. I made that decision because Wilson was on Malkin's left by the end of the playoffs. Also we got a lot of Rowney and Kuhnhackl minutes throughout the season and playoffs due to injury, but I didn't count injury reserves, elsewise we'd see Jankowski really drag 2021. I wanted to go for what a fully healthy bottom 6 would give us. I also possibly inflated 2021 by going with Rodrigues over Gaudreau, and that very well may not be what the actual pecking order is when Rodrigues comes back healthy.

Analysis: I think I overrated 2017. Yeah I think the Letang injury affected overall scoring for anyone not named Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, or Guentzel, but I didn't realize that Scott Wilson was getting top 6 minutes to facilitate dropping Kunitz to the bottom six. Overall I think this team was "deeper" than 2016, but we had a more clear cut top six vs bottom six by playing Kessel with Malkin. Therefore, while the team as a whole had more talent, the bottom six itself was the least impressive of the bunch.

2021 has the lowest goal output and I think its demonstrably not as good as 2016 was, but I was still impressed by the numbers. Carter-McCann-Rodrigues/Gaudreau isn't going to be HBK but I underrated the offensive accomplishments of the checking line which has put them in the conversation.

I was interested and did the math. Here are the numbers for the bottom six groups at 5v5 of the three seasons in question:

2015/16 group of Kessel, Hagelin, Bonino, Cullen, Kuhnhackl, and Fehr
Pts/60: 1.85
G/60: 0.77

2016/17 group of Bonino, Kunitz, Hornqvist, Hagelin, Rust, and Cullen
Pts/60: 1.64
G/60: .067

2020/21 group of Carter, McCann, Rodrigues, Blueger, Tanev, and ZAR
Pts/60: 1.79
G/60: 0.57

Notes: I found it tough to get an accurate number for 2017 because the lines were so fluid then. I may have inflated things by not including Scott Wilson in favor of Rust, Kunitz, or Hornqvist who played up the lineup a significant amount. I made that decision because Wilson was on Malkin's left by the end of the playoffs. Also we got a lot of Rowney and Kuhnhackl minutes throughout the season and playoffs due to injury, but I didn't count injury reserves, elsewise we'd see Jankowski really drag 2021. I wanted to go for what a fully healthy bottom 6 would give us. I also possibly inflated 2021 by going with Rodrigues over Gaudreau, and that very well may not be what the actual pecking order is when Rodrigues comes back healthy.

Analysis: I think I overrated 2017. Yeah I think the Letang injury affected overall scoring for anyone not named Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, or Guentzel, but I didn't realize that Scott Wilson was getting top 6 minutes to facilitate dropping Kunitz to the bottom six. Overall I think this team was "deeper" than 2016, but we had a more clear cut top six vs bottom six by playing Kessel with Malkin. Therefore, while the team as a whole had more talent, the bottom six itself was the least impressive of the bunch.

2021 has the lowest goal output and I think its demonstrably not as good as 2016 was, but I was still impressed by the numbers. Carter-McCann-Rodrigues/Gaudreau isn't going to be HBK but I underrated the offensive accomplishments of the checking line which has put them in the conversation.
- Victoro311

Wow, nice work Vic. Quality post/response right there. I was really wondering about all of this after reading the earlier posts. Big variable is obviously injuries to top 6 in these seasons. It bumps the guys being mentioned up with better (higher?) QoT's.

@Vic

I think the start of this season drastically affects those numbers and likely a lot of teams in the NHL. I think by and large this is a weird season to analyze given how rough of a start it was for many teams and players.

Masterson Trophy nominees that have/had ties to the Pens:

Arizona- Phil Kessel
Hurricanes - Jordan Staal
Pens - Casey DeSmith
Sharks - Patrick Marleau
Vegas -Marc-Andre Fleury

Great players/great people....

I was interested and did the math. Here are the numbers for the bottom six groups at 5v5 of the three seasons in question:

2015/16 group of Kessel, Hagelin, Bonino, Cullen, Kuhnhackl, and Fehr
Pts/60: 1.85
G/60: 0.77

2016/17 group of Bonino, Kunitz, Hornqvist, Hagelin, Rust, and Cullen
Pts/60: 1.64
G/60: .067

2020/21 group of Carter, McCann, Rodrigues, Blueger, Tanev, and ZAR
Pts/60: 1.79
G/60: 0.57

Notes: I found it tough to get an accurate number for 2017 because the lines were so fluid then. I may have inflated things by not including Scott Wilson in favor of Rust, Kunitz, or Hornqvist who played up the lineup a significant amount. I made that decision because Wilson was on Malkin's left by the end of the playoffs. Also we got a lot of Rowney and Kuhnhackl minutes throughout the season and playoffs due to injury, but I didn't count injury reserves, elsewise we'd see Jankowski really drag 2021. I wanted to go for what a fully healthy bottom 6 would give us. I also possibly inflated 2021 by going with Rodrigues over Gaudreau, and that very well may not be what the actual pecking order is when Rodrigues comes back healthy.

Analysis: I think I overrated 2017. Yeah I think the Letang injury affected overall scoring for anyone not named Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, or Guentzel, but I didn't realize that Scott Wilson was getting top 6 minutes to facilitate dropping Kunitz to the bottom six. Overall I think this team was "deeper" than 2016, but we had a more clear cut top six vs bottom six by playing Kessel with Malkin. Therefore, while the team as a whole had more talent, the bottom six itself was the least impressive of the bunch.

2021 has the lowest goal output and I think its demonstrably not as good as 2016 was, but I was still impressed by the numbers. Carter-McCann-Rodrigues/Gaudreau isn't going to be HBK but I underrated the offensive accomplishments of the checking line which has put them in the conversation.
- Victoro311

That's some quality work.

I'd say comparing this team to 2016 there's a little drop off in the bottom 6. It's a better 4th line but as good as Carter has been it's not like Kessel. And regular season stats don't do justice to the monster play-off run Bonino had.

Where 2021 has a huge advantage is top 6 wings. With Kessel on the 3rd line, the top six was fairly thin. Or at least there was nobody near comparable to Guentzel or even this version of Rust.

I was interested and did the math. Here are the numbers for the bottom six groups at 5v5 of the three seasons in question:

2015/16 group of Kessel, Hagelin, Bonino, Cullen, Kuhnhackl, and Fehr
Pts/60: 1.85
G/60: 0.77

2016/17 group of Bonino, Kunitz, Hornqvist, Hagelin, Rust, and Cullen
Pts/60: 1.64
G/60: .067

2020/21 group of Carter, McCann, Rodrigues, Blueger, Tanev, and ZAR
Pts/60: 1.79
G/60: 0.57

Notes: I found it tough to get an accurate number for 2017 because the lines were so fluid then. I may have inflated things by not including Scott Wilson in favor of Rust, Kunitz, or Hornqvist who played up the lineup a significant amount. I made that decision because Wilson was on Malkin's left by the end of the playoffs. Also we got a lot of Rowney and Kuhnhackl minutes throughout the season and playoffs due to injury, but I didn't count injury reserves, elsewise we'd see Jankowski really drag 2021. I wanted to go for what a fully healthy bottom 6 would give us. I also possibly inflated 2021 by going with Rodrigues over Gaudreau, and that very well may not be what the actual pecking order is when Rodrigues comes back healthy.

Analysis: I think I overrated 2017. Yeah I think the Letang injury affected overall scoring for anyone not named Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, or Guentzel, but I didn't realize that Scott Wilson was getting top 6 minutes to facilitate dropping Kunitz to the bottom six. Overall I think this team was "deeper" than 2016, but we had a more clear cut top six vs bottom six by playing Kessel with Malkin. Therefore, while the team as a whole had more talent, the bottom six itself was the least impressive of the bunch.

2021 has the lowest goal output and I think its demonstrably not as good as 2016 was, but I was still impressed by the numbers. Carter-McCann-Rodrigues/Gaudreau isn't going to be HBK but I underrated the offensive accomplishments of the checking line which has put them in the conversation.
- Victoro311

Post like this is another reason I love this group...

2016 was like we had 3 - 1st lines and a 3rd line (though Malkin's line was like a 2nd line. As soon as Hags or Kessel got ahold of the puck the opposing D would start thier backwards crossovers...

Wow, nice work Vic. Quality post/response right there. I was really wondering about all of this after reading the earlier posts. Big variable is obviously injuries to top 6 in these seasons. It bumps the guys being mentioned up with better (higher?) QoT's.
- MattStrat

Yeah injuries is a lot of what makes 2017 really weird to really quantify. When healthy, Sid, Guentzel, Sheary, Malkin and Kessel were stapled to the top six, but that last spot was a revolving door and guys were hurt a ton.

And I looked up Scott Wilson out of curiosity to see how much he was skewing the stats by not being included in the bottom 6 (assuming he would drag it down) and the guy had an absolutely monster year somehow. 78 games played, 26 points and 8 goals with at 5v5 with 816.3 TOI at 5v5 good for 1.9!!! 5v5 pts/60. Then his career went and died in Detroit and Buffalo. A true Buzz Flippett if I've ever seen one.

Per EK, it’s looking like the East playoffs will start Sunday.

Wow, the Eichel stuff is pretty damning as to how awful that Buffalo organization is from top to bottom