That's some quality work.

I'd say comparing this team to 2016 there's a little drop off in the bottom 6. It's a better 4th line but as good as Carter has been it's not like Kessel. And regular season stats don't do justice to the monster play-off run Bonino had.

Where 2021 has a huge advantage is top 6 wings. With Kessel on the 3rd line, the top six was fairly thin. Or at least there was nobody bear comparable to Guentzel or even this version of Rust.
- Tojo.

The way I see it, in 2016 we had 7 (Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Bonino, Hagelin, Kunitz and Hornqvist) guys producing at top 6 5v5 rates spread across three lines with Sheary producing at a third line rate to compliment the 1st line. Rust is a special case. He produced like a 4th liner all season but then went haywire with Malkin in the playoffs for a first liner rate of 2.11 pts/60. So what do you want to weigh? Considering we know now that Rust is more like the 2016 Rust, I'd probably put him in the Sheary category. But then our 4th line was a clear cut bottom 6 line. It was good with Cullen and Kuhnhackl producing at third line rates, but Fehr was a standard zero offense fourth liner. If in my original post I flipped the Malkin and Kessel units for the third line spot, there would be a significant decrease in the scoring rates for the bottom 6.

In 2017 we had 8 top 6 rate guys (Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Guentzel, Sheary, Hornqvist, Rust, and Wilson!!!) spread out across all four lines with a clear cut top 9 rate guy in every other spot. You can flip around a bunch of the wingers but it wouldn't have a lot of effect on the top 6 vs bottom 6 scoring rates because everyone was producing at a high clip.

I would say that in 2016 we had three 1st lines and 3rd line. In 2017 we had two 1st lines and two 2nd lines. When healthy, of course, which was rare that year.

I was interested and did the math. Here are the numbers for the bottom six groups at 5v5 of the three seasons in question:

2015/16 group of Kessel, Hagelin, Bonino, Cullen, Kuhnhackl, and Fehr
Pts/60: 1.85
G/60: 0.77

2016/17 group of Bonino, Kunitz, Hornqvist, Hagelin, Rust, and Cullen
Pts/60: 1.64
G/60: .067

2020/21 group of Carter, McCann, Rodrigues, Blueger, Tanev, and ZAR
Pts/60: 1.79
G/60: 0.57

Notes: I found it tough to get an accurate number for 2017 because the lines were so fluid then. I may have inflated things by not including Scott Wilson in favor of Rust, Kunitz, or Hornqvist who played up the lineup a significant amount. I made that decision because Wilson was on Malkin's left by the end of the playoffs. Also we got a lot of Rowney and Kuhnhackl minutes throughout the season and playoffs due to injury, but I didn't count injury reserves, elsewise we'd see Jankowski really drag 2021. I wanted to go for what a fully healthy bottom 6 would give us. I also possibly inflated 2021 by going with Rodrigues over Gaudreau, and that very well may not be what the actual pecking order is when Rodrigues comes back healthy.

Analysis: I think I overrated 2017. Yeah I think the Letang injury affected overall scoring for anyone not named Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, or Guentzel, but I didn't realize that Scott Wilson was getting top 6 minutes to facilitate dropping Kunitz to the bottom six. Overall I think this team was "deeper" than 2016, but we had a more clear cut top six vs bottom six by playing Kessel with Malkin. Therefore, while the team as a whole had more talent, the bottom six itself was the least impressive of the bunch.

2021 has the lowest goal output and I think its demonstrably not as good as 2016 was, but I was still impressed by the numbers. Carter-McCann-Rodrigues/Gaudreau isn't going to be HBK but I underrated the offensive accomplishments of the checking line which has put them in the conversation.
- Victoro311

So what I was doing was looking at team production when Crosby, Guetzel, Rust, Malkin and Kapanen weren't on the ice this year. The Pens were at 2.54 G/60. For the cup years, instead of looking into line combos I just again looked at team production when Crosby and Malkin weren't on the ice. 15/16 was 2.03 G/60 and 16/17 was 2.16 G/60

Was kessle really a bottom 6 guy for much of the year tho? I thought hbk happened w/ a few weeks left in the season, when geno got hurt. Then that basically made them the 2nd line. I could be very wrong. I generally feel like most people misremember hbk tho, due to it becoming so legendary.

Was kessle really a bottom 6 guy for much of the year tho? I thought hbk happened w/ a few weeks left in the season, when geno got hurt. Then that basically made them the 2nd line. I could be very wrong. I generally feel like most people misremember hbk tho, due to it becoming so legendary.
- wsldck

You're correct. Bonino essentially got Malkin's wings because they were on fire and never lost momentum. They'd just never call Malkin's line the 3rd line even though there was probably more talent in the HBK line.

Was kessle really a bottom 6 guy for much of the year tho? I thought hbk happened w/ a few weeks left in the season, when geno got hurt. Then that basically made them the 2nd line. I could be very wrong. I generally feel like most people misremember hbk tho, due to it becoming so legendary.
- wsldck

I was at the HBK game. It was game #74 against the Red Wings so yeah. Not very much left in the season. But Phil also had the lowest pts/60 out of the three, so I don’t think that’s really all that impactful to what I was doing.

Wow, the Eichel stuff is pretty damning as to how awful that Buffalo organization is from top to bottom
- burgh4life87

It’s insane. They have quickly dropped to the worst organization in hockey without a close second.

Gotta feel for the fans who will be even more upset when they get fleeced in an Eichel trade. Buffalo will have no leverage.

So what I was doing was looking at team production when Crosby, Guetzel, Rust, Malkin and Kapanen weren't on the ice this year. The Pens were at 2.54 G/60. For the cup years, instead of looking into line combos I just again looked at team production when Crosby and Malkin weren't on the ice. 15/16 was 2.03 G/60 and 16/17 was 2.16 G/60
- burgh4life87

Ah gotcha. Weird to me that the discrepancy would be that high. You can maybe explain 2016 by replacing Perron's incredibly woeful production with Hagelin's 2.9 monster season, the amount of time it took for us to call up the Wilkes Barre 5 to revamp the bottom 6, and the fact that Rust still didn't really produce in the rgular season. 2017 can be explained by the amount of injuries causing an abundance of Rowney, Kuhnackl, and Fehr (before he got traded) minutes plus a handful of other scrubs. But this year we had Jankowski absolutely cratering lines in the bottom six. Real testament to the competence of Gaudreau and Angelo, which is really the only way to explain it.

EDIT: I just looked at Freddy Gaudreau's numbers and I actually did not inflate 2021 by including E-Rod over him. I massively deflated it. With Gaudreau in for Rodrigues, the 2021 Pts/60 becomes 1.88, good for best out of the three seasons we're looking at. Gaudreau is the key, fellas!

It’s insane. They have quickly dropped to the worst organization in hockey without a close second.

Gotta feel for the fans who will be even more upset when they get fleeced in an Eichel trade. Buffalo will have no leverage.
- Rinosaur

Buffalo is a great sports town. It sucks the Sabres have been so incompetent. They deserve better.

Buffalo is a great sports town. It sucks the Sabres have been so incompetent. They deserve better.
- Victoro311

Agreed. I have a few friends up there and they’ve ridden that team through many years of suckage and are always excited for a new season in spite of knowing how bad they’ll be.

Ownership either needs to sell this team to owners who are capable, partner up with other owners who are more capable or cut the chord and let their GM do his job.

Ah gotcha. Weird to me that the discrepancy would be that high. You can maybe explain 2016 by replacing Perron's incredibly woeful production with Hagelin's 2.9 monster season, the amount of time it took for us to call up the Wilkes Barre 5 to revamp the bottom 6, and the fact that Rust still didn't really produce in the rgular season. 2017 can be explained by the amount of injuries causing an abundance of Rowney, Kuhnackl, and Fehr (before he got traded) minutes plus a handful of other scrubs. But this year we had Jankowski absolutely cratering lines in the bottom six. Real testament to the competence of Gaudreau and Angelo, which is really the only way to explain it.

EDIT: I just looked at Freddy Gaudreau's numbers and I actually did not inflate 2021 by including E-Rod over him. I massively deflated it. With Gaudreau in for Rodrigues, the 2021 Pts/60 becomes 1.88, good for best out of the three seasons we're looking at. Gaudreau is the key, fellas!
- Victoro311

Gaudreau is a fancy stats freak! His scoring impact this season is crazy good.

But yah, I'm not sure why the discrepancy is so high, but either way I'm all about the depth. Having a 4th line center produce at .5PPG is pretty damn nice.

Agreed. I have a few friends up there and they’ve ridden that team through many years of suckage and are always excited for a new season in spite of knowing how bad they’ll be.

Ownership either needs to sell this team to owners who are capable, partner up with other owners who are more capable or cut the chord and let their GM do his job.
- Rinosaur

This. Pegula needs to hire hockey people and let them do their thing. Would anyone be shocked if Rutherford takes a pres of hockey ops job up there to help wheel and deal all their talent around for a rebuild? He seems like the type who would want to be active in reshaping a team.

This. Pegula needs to hire hockey people and let them do their thing. Would anyone be shocked if Rutherford takes a pres of hockey ops job up there to help wheel and deal all their talent around for a rebuild? He seems like the type who would want to be active in reshaping a team.
- burgh4life87

Or John Davidson and John Tortorella unite again! E5 from Ek haha

This. Pegula needs to hire hockey people and let them do their thing. Would anyone be shocked if Rutherford takes a pres of hockey ops job up there to help wheel and deal all their talent around for a rebuild? He seems like the type who would want to be active in reshaping a team.
- burgh4life87

I would be totally shocked. No way Rutherford is walking into a situation where he needs to check with ownership on what kind of toilet paper to let the players use.

Or John Davidson and John Tortorella unite again! E5 from Ek haha
- pens4life-66

None of that matters if ownership is going to tie their hands together.

I would be totally shocked. No way Rutherford is walking into a situation where he needs to check with ownership on what kind of toilet paper to let the players use.
- Rinosaur

That's a good point. Jim wants to be able to do whatever the hell he wants when he wants.

That's a good point. Jim wants to be able to do whatever the hell he wants when he wants.
- burgh4life87

Yup and look, you can't expect smaller market teams to just open their wallets, but they obviously aren't just watching the purse, they're telling management how to spend it and that's where I think JR would draw the line.

I'm sure if he knew he had a lot of latitude to make decisions, yet had to watch the wallet he'd think about it, but that's obviously not the case. GMs are basically figure heads there with no real authority.

Go Bruins!

It’s insane. They have quickly dropped to the worst organization in hockey without a close second.

Gotta feel for the fans who will be even more upset when they get fleeced in an Eichel trade. Buffalo will have no leverage.
- Rinosaur

Beyond all of the other problems they had, they canned the great majority of their scouting staff to save money. So they are going to be stuck trading anyone worth a damn for draft picks which they will likely strikeout on due to lack of exposure.

This is why you don't buy a sports team for the sole purpose of turning it into a profit center. You buy a team because you love it and have more money than you know what to do with.

Beyond all of the other problems they had, they canned the great majority of their scouting staff to save money. So they are going to be stuck trading anyone worth a damn for draft picks which they will likely strikeout on due to lack of exposure.

This is why you don't buy a sports team for the sole purpose of turning it into a profit center. You buy a team because you love it and have more money than you know what to do with.
- MacPatty

Buffalo sucks

I would be totally shocked. No way Rutherford is walking into a situation where he needs to check with ownership on what kind of toilet paper to let the players use.
- Rinosaur

Yup. If Jim left because of owners here imagine mrs pegula telling him what to do.

Looks like Pitt bs nyi. Although a lot more physical of a team I’m excited to get revenge. I also think Boston is the team to beat and cap wait for the Boston/Washington series. Should be exciting.

Isles in the 1st round it is!!! Let’s goooo!!!

Isles in the 1st round it is!!! Let’s goooo!!!
- pens4life-66

GO PENS, GO!!!!

Wonder if the varlomov injury is serious?

GO PENS, GO!!!!
- Beatnic57

I can't wait for the Boston/ Washinton series too!!! That may have a TV rating of M for Mature audiences!