His play reeked of needing hernia surgery. You ruled out Covid haze (he was never in protocol). Someone else pointed out he had trouble accelerating/decelerating. The last screams hernia/hernia like injury.
- PT21

Yes, it was possibly this all along. There was posts hinting at this for a while...trying to remember the poster....Glak?

Why didn’t they just sit him and get the surgery done?

Yes, it was possibly this all along. There was posts hinting at this for a while...trying to remember the poster....Glak?

Why didn’t they just sit him and get the surgery done?
- NC Flyers Fan

Probably because they had been assured it would not get worse, and possibly because he would miss minima if any for next season, even with after regular season surgery.

Still stupid!

From last blob:




Step 1: Years 1-4 max: no better than a top 8 pick. No signings of high priced agents. Trade current stars for more high picks/ good prospects.

Keep a few old guys around for character, toughness, etc. End this period with a load of young raw talent and lotsa cap space.

Step 2: Years 5-7 max: Do you have some premier talent? If so, sign UFA complementary pieces. If not, try to get best top end talent via trade/UFA. Overpay if necessary, but no one over 28.

Step 3: Years 7-17 max. All core pieces are now in place, and young. Trade for fit, sign toughness.toughness, so on. 10 odd year window to contend.

Step 4: Years 18-20. Start preparing for step 1 above.
- PT21

They didn’t follow your step one, but it really is questionable how important that draft order is.

The second piece...JVR and Hayes were both big signings. We seem to be currently in step two, but we are doing a poor job of complementary pieces and adding top end talent so far. Makes us all question if there is really a plan when we witnessed this year’s fiasco.

With all the cries for toughness, maybe we are attempting to attack step 2 and 3 in the same offseason. Is this year 7 when it all comes together? Lucky us.

Lots of folks want step four right now, but I think that is a waste of the last 6 years. Fletcher needs at least this offseason to try and right the ship. Get the right mix and swing for the fence all at once.

Probably because they had been assured it would not get worse, and possibly because he would miss minima if any for next season, even with after regular season surgery.

Still stupid!
- PT21

I just can’t justify it.

They didn’t follow your step one, but it really is questionable how important that draft order is.

The second piece...JVR and Hayes were both big signings. We seem to be currently in step two, but we are doing a poor job of complementary pieces and adding top end talent so far. Makes us all question if there is really a plan when we witnessed this year’s fiasco.

With all the cries for toughness, maybe we are attempting to attack step 2 and 3 in the same offseason. Is this year 7 when it all comes together? Lucky us.

Lots of folks want step four right now, but I think that is a waste of the last 6 years. Fletcher needs at least this offseason to try and right the ship. Get the right mix and swing for the fence all at once.
- NC Flyers Fan

This year, or in general? Its not questionable in general. It just gives you vastly better odds of landing a star player.

There is no question of adding complementary pieces. There is nothing to complement. Our core is nowhere in the ballpark of contention.

That is like finishing a horrible meal in a restaurant because you have already paid for it. What is done is done. No point worsening the situation by refusing to admit it.

Some people treat the C as some mythical magical thing. Like they are the owner, coach, father, General manager all wrapped up in to one.
- MBFlyerfan

People watch too many movies.

This year, or in general? Its not questionable in general. It just gives you vastly better odds of landing a star player.

There is no question of adding complementary pieces. There is nothing to complement. Our core is nowhere in the ballpark of contention.

That is like finishing a horrible meal in a restaurant because you have already paid for it. What is done is done. No point worsening the situation by refusing to admit it.
- PT21

I’m not talking about the odds. Tons of top end talent was drafted in the second half of the first round and later. We have discussed this before. We did draft a few players in that 1-8 range just not for 4 straight years. I think excellent scouting, good health/injury luck and player development/situation/usage play a larger role than the draft number. (No need to rehash, I am just explaining what I meant.)

I don’t think you’re right there. It is not all or nothing. I have been begging for the top end RHD defenseman add for a while. Some of the complementary issues are on coaching too because of situation/usage, but the overall fit isn’t great. Players can be more when in a good spot than a bad one.

I will admit that the Flyers are doing a poor job and need to step up their game, but if it comes to a full reset, the offseason before the 22-23 season and/or next trade deadline is the time to do it.

This year, or in general? Its not questionable in general. It just gives you vastly better odds of landing a star player.
- PT21

No. It gives better odds of landing someone who arrives in the NHL a little sooner and, if healthy, lasts in the league. You still won't necessarily hit a home run.

I'll use Boston as the example here. Bergeron wasn't ranked in THN top 50 his Draft year. Boston took him 45th overall. Marchand was a 3rd round pick (71st overall). Pastrnak was a late first-round pick (25th overall). Krejci was a late 2nd rounder (63rd overall). McAvoy was a middle 1st rounder (14th overall). Carlo was a 2nd rounder (37th overall).

But Edmonton had years and years of 1st overall picks -- all pretty much consensus or unanimous for that spot -- and were still lousy for years even after McDavid for several years. Or look at all the top 8 picks on Buffalo's roster.

For the Flyers, who have been the best two homegrown forwards of the last 25 years? Giroux and Gagne, both drafted 22nd overall.

Draft position is a guarantee of nothing. It's just a starting place not a destination.

No. It gives better odds of landing someone who arrives in the NHL a little sooner and, if healthy, lasts in the league. You still won't necessarily hit a home run.

I'll use Boston as the example here. Bergeron wasn't ranked in THN top 50 his Draft year. Boston took him 45th overall. Marchand was a 3rd round pick (71st overall). Pastrnak was a late first-round pick (25th overall). Krejci was a late 2nd rounder (63rd overall). McAvoy was a middle 1st rounder (14th overall). Carlo was a 2nd rounder (37th overall).

But Edmonton had years and years of 1st overall picks -- all pretty much consensus or unanimous for that spot -- and were still lousy for years even after McDavid for several years. Or look at all the top 8 picks on Buffalo's roster.

For the Flyers, who have been the best three homegrown forwards of the last 25 years? Giroux and Gagne were both drafted 22nd overall. Couturier was 8th overall.

Draft position is a guarantee of nothing. It's just a starting place not a destination.
- bmeltzer

This guy? The guy who claimed last week he was just short of becoming a pro hockey player but didn’t make it but has player, coaching abs general management insight because of his hockey experience? This guy?

How do you not see Giroux is hands down, easily our hardest worker most nights? You actually believe our very best player should be captain?
- SuperSchennBros

Ask him his name and stats so we can confirm. Ain’t happening.

No. It gives better odds of landing someone who arrives in the NHL a little sooner and, if healthy, lasts in the league. You still won't necessarily hit a home run.

I'll use Boston as the example here. Bergeron wasn't ranked in THN top 50 his Draft year. Boston took him 45th overall. Marchand was a 3rd round pick (71st overall). Pastrnak was a late first-round pick (25th overall). Krejci was a late 2nd rounder (63rd overall). McAvoy was a middle 1st rounder (14th overall). Carlo was a 2nd rounder (37th overall).

But Edmonton had years and years of 1st overall picks -- all pretty much consensus or unanimous for that spot -- and were still lousy for years even after McDavid for several years. Or look at all the top 8 picks on Buffalo's roster.

For the Flyers, who have been the best two homegrown forwards of the last 25 years? Giroux and Gagne, both drafted 22nd overall.

Draft position is a guarantee of nothing. It's just a starting place not a destination.
- bmeltzer

Bill, with the utmost affection and respect: I regret you are utterly incorrect.

You are making the same elementary probability mistake that Tomahawk made a few weeks earlier and NCFlyersfan makes almost as a force of habit *smile*.

The mistake stems from the following:

There are 7 draft picks in the first 7 places by definition. Lets say in the last 20 years they have yielded x superstars. Then the likelihood of yielding a superstar in the top 7 is x/140.

There are about 30 players in each round, 7 rounds, which makes for 203 remaining spots. Throw in the undrafted guy, which occasionally yields studs like Panarin. Lets say this makes for a total of 250 spots each year across all teams outside the top 7. Lets say this yields y superstars over 20 years.

Now compared x/140 and y/5000 (250×20).

People often look at the raw numbers of x and y, as you do with Bergeron, Marchand, etc. etc, and say: gee, you can get stud players after the top 7 too and they are about the same!.

They fail to account for the fact that even if x and y are the same, the pool from which they are being drafted are of vastly different sizes. Indeed, if x and y were the same, that would mean your likelihood of getting a stud in the top 7 would be merely 35 times than outside it.

EDIT: I want to add: Take any equivalent # of draft places as say the top 5 or 7 as I used above. For example, choose draft picks 8-14, or 21-27 or any chunk of positions that total 7 in #. Now compare to top 7 in the historical likelihood of producing superstars. You will find that the top 7 will yield a superstar with at least 10 times as much likelihood as any other set of draft positions that equal 7.

Superstar is somewhat subjective: you can use the trophy finalists for each year as a condition.

The NHL and the NBA are actually highly predictive in the draft position correlation with quality. the NFL is much more variable, and MLB even more so afaik.

I’m not talking about the odds. Tons of top end talent was drafted in the second half of the first round and later. We have discussed this before. We did draft a few players in that 1-8 range just not for 4 straight years. I think excellent scouting, good health/injury luck and player development/situation/usage play a larger role than the draft number. (No need to rehash, I am just explaining what I meant.)
- NC Flyers Fan

Yes you are, amigo. You just don't understand what odds means, which is why you think you are talking about something else when every single thing you say after the bolded statement demonstrates that you are talking about odds.

Yes you are, amigo. You just don't understand what odds means, which is why you think you are talking about something else when every single thing you say after the bolded statement demonstrates that you are talking about odds.
- PT21

I have to think that by stating an odds-only-analysis, you are missing the bigger individual team picture as Bill stated about Boston for example. I’ve looked at the cup winning teams (and their contender opponents) over the last several years. Which teams had that 4-year, top 1-8 picks window before they won? And don’t tell me you are basing all this on a team that hasn’t won or on a single winner?

Odds taken across 31 teams, 30 of which lose each year, does that really mean the same thing to an individual team? Might there be more than one way to build a winner?

Bill, with the utmost affection and respect: I regret you are utterly incorrect.
- PT21

Sorry, draft position probability is only part of the story.

Who's picking is just as important as where they're picking. Some teams draft (much) better than others. Some teams have a history of botching top-5 layups. Teams don't scout equally. They don't evaluate equally. And once the pick has been made, not all teams develop equally.

Then there's the inherent difference in draft classes. The quality at each pick varies wildly from year to year. Top-10 picks can be a parade of HOFers one year, and list of total WTFs the next. The #2 pick in 2017 is not equal to the #2 pick in 2004, for example.

Then there's the matter of the draft lottery and the many ways that can impact your chances. Worst team in the league only has a 1 in 6 chance of getting the best pick. Teams can move up/down multiple spots. Flyers know all too well that the worst team can lose out on the franchise savior and end up with meh.

So yeah, focusing on draft position is seriously a reductive way at looking at the draft.

Sorry, draft position probability is only part of the story.

Who's picking is just as important as where they're picking. Some teams draft (much) better than others. Some teams have a history of botching top-5 layups. Teams don't scout equally. They don't evaluate equally. And once the pick has been made, not all teams develop equally.

Then there's the inherent difference in draft classes. The quality at each pick varies wildly from year to year. Top-10 picks can be a parade of HOFers one year, and list of total WTFs the next. The #2 pick in 2017 is not equal to the #2 pick in 2004, for example.

Then there's the matter of the draft lottery and the many ways that can impact your chances. Worst team in the league only has a 1 in 6 chance of getting the best pick. Teams can move up/down multiple spots. Flyers know all too well that the worst team can lose out on the franchise savior and end up with meh.

So yeah, focusing on draft position is seriously a reductive way at looking at the draft.
- Tomahawk

a fine vintage

I have to think that by stating an odds-only-analysis, you are missing the bigger individual team picture as Bill stated about Boston for example. I’ve looked at the cup winning teams (and their contender opponents) over the last several years. Which teams had that 4-year, top 1-8 picks window before they won? And don’t tell me you are basing all this on a team that hasn’t won or on a single winner?

Odds taken across 31 teams, 30 of which lose each year, does that really mean the same thing to an individual team? Might there be more than one way to build a winner?
- NC Flyers Fan

Bolded points addressed in order:

1. If you look at my post, you will see that sucking up to year 4 is a max. Its up to year 4, not a minimum of year 4. I just wanted to put a generous time window on the thing to get as close to having a high probability of success as I could. The 4 year window is arbitrary, but in general, the longer you can stay in tank mode, the greater your chances.

2. Yes, sure it does. (Just like the individual roll of a fair dice is likely to return 1 only 1/6th of the time, even though many individual rolls have returned 1 in the past).

3. Sure there is, but one of the two is about 20 times more likely than the other to produce success.

Sorry, draft position probability is only part of the story.

Who's picking is just as important as where they're picking. Some teams draft (much) better than others. Some teams have a history of botching top-5 layups. Teams don't scout equally. They don't evaluate equally. And once the pick has been made, not all teams develop equally.

Then there's the inherent difference in draft classes. The quality at each pick varies wildly from year to year. Top-10 picks can be a parade of HOFers one year, and list of total WTFs the next. The #2 pick in 2017 is not equal to the #2 pick in 2004, for example.

Then there's the matter of the draft lottery and the many ways that can impact your chances. Worst team in the league only has a 1 in 6 chance of getting the best pick. Teams can move up/down multiple spots. Flyers know all too well that the worst team can lose out on the franchise savior and end up with meh.

So yeah, focusing on draft position is seriously a reductive way at looking at the draft.
- Tomahawk

I never suggested you draft high, then send them to the Bahamas and bring them back right before the year they are going to make a run for the cup did I? All the other factors you mention are important too. However, they are much easier to bring about into the organizational fold than talent.

All the other things you wrote, they are all incorporated in the odds already. Want to draft high? The best thing you can do is finish low. Want to draft a stud? The best thing you can do is pick high.

The variability of talent across years, the better scouting, better development, lottery odds of someone surpassing you: all of that is already incorporated in the answers to the previous 2 questions.

a fine vintage
- stayinthefnnet

Those Genovese wines.....

I would hope that we don’t lose one or both Jake and JVR without a plan to replace the veteran playmaking and PP spots. They really need to consider the mix and get it right.

On the news about Hayes having core muscle surgery, my reaction is why on earth did the Flyers play him down the stretch? The team was not making the playoffs, and the Phantom season was without playoffs. I would have accepted literally any call up and a simple explanation that Hayes needs surgery. Why not get it done as soon as possible to rehab for next year?


- NC Flyers Fan

This!! Exactly this! Why not have that surgery the day after we were eliminated from the playoffs?
Hell, the way he was playing you could have shelved his butt long ago!
Regardless, it has been a waste of time to not have the surgery

It’s enjoyable watching good hockey.

It’s enjoyable watching good hockey.
- Just5

Which game are you watching? The Nashville/Carolina game has been pretty good

I wish the flyers played exciting hockey like this

The officiating in this caps game is horrible

That Forsberg mustache.

.@nhlFlyers center @KevinPHayes12 will need core-muscle surgery, which may take place in the next week, per GM Chuck Fletcher.


Painful injury

Wow....Makar is such a great player