I've convinced myself the big targets this year would be RNH and Hamilton via UFA and then Nylander via trade. Could easily see them swim around Laine and Reinhart as well.

Smaller targets being Brandon Montour, Alexander Wennberg, and Ryan Murray. Could also bring Nemeth back.
- DRW1991

Hamilton is a d man I’d love to see. Probably too much $$$ but that would be an exciting add

Hamilton is a d man I’d love to see. Probably too much $$$ but that would be an exciting add
- Jeremy Laura

What would be too much money? Wings have a TON of space and an owner that is dependent on the Wings for their livelihood. Throw Pietrangelo's contract out there? 3 years younger, max term, cap will eventually go up on the second half of the deal when other players will start needing raises.

I'm going to keep saying "offer sheet Pettersson" in the comments like once or twice a week until he has a contract with somebody.
- Sven22

Way more enticing than an Eichel trade. Also sign Tatar.

What would be too much money? Wings have a TON of space and an owner that is dependent on the Wings for their livelihood. Throw Pietrangelo's contract out there? 3 years younger, max term, cap will eventually go up on the second half of the deal when other players will start needing raises.
- DRW1991

Pietro deal is horrible and so would a 7 x 9m deal for a soon to be 28 year guy. There’s a lot to factor in when signing these deals. Can’t be signing contracts like that where only the first 3-4 years are going to be a win. Term is the most important thing to consider.

Pietro deal is horrible and so would a 7 x 9m deal for a soon to be 28 year guy. There’s a lot to factor in when signing these deals. Can’t be signing contracts like that where only the first 3-4 years are going to be a win. Term is the most important thing to consider.
- Feds91Stammer

The only reason his deal is bad is because of his age and will be 38 when it ends. Hamilton would be 35, which generally is the start of the massive fall off. I'd have zero issue giving him 8-9m for 7 years.

The only reason his deal is bad is because of his age and will be 38 when it ends. Hamilton would be 35, which generally is the start of the massive fall off. I'd have zero issue giving him 8-9m for 7 years.
- DRW1991

Fall off occurs way before 35. Prime age is generally 25-28 so you’d be committing 7 years to someone past their prime. Not exactly ideal.

I'm going to keep saying "offer sheet Pettersson" in the comments like once or twice a week until he has a contract with somebody.
- Sven22

No to Hamilton, we will be OK on the right side...for now. Really need a LD, Montour can play both sides, Hjalmarsson or Martinez on 2-3 yr deals as stop gaps, Oleksiak, and of course Merrill. But a true #1 LD would have to be developed or traded for. Could trade for the last year of Nick Leddy, as the Isles will be in cap hell..should be cheap, or the last 2 years of Keith Yandle....he would be accompanied by a sweetener such as a 1st rounder and more if salary is not retained.

No to Hamilton, we will be OK on the right side...for now. Really need a LD, Montour can play both sides, Hjalmarsson or Martinez on 2-3 yr deals as stop gaps, Oleksiak, and of course Merrill. But a true #1 LD would have to be developed or traded for. Could trade for the last year of Nick Leddy, as the Isles will be in cap hell..should be cheap, or the last 2 years of Keith Yandle....he would be accompanied by a sweetener such as a 1st rounder and more if salary is not retained.
- HenryHockey

I like your Schmidt idea if they can get van to retain 25%

I like your Schmidt idea if they can get van to retain 25%
- Feds91Stammer

Thanks, Schmidt(retain $1.5M) for Cholo and Oiler's 2nd.....close enough?

Fall off occurs way before 35. Prime age is generally 25-28 so you’d be committing 7 years to someone past their prime. Not exactly ideal.
- Feds91Stammer

Disagree with this for dmen.

Pietrangelo has been the same player up until 31, shows no signs of slowing. Best two years stat wise at 28 and 30.

Josi, best year at age 30 and no signs of slowing.

Suter, best year at 31 and 33, looks like he's falling off at 36.

Weber, best year at 28. "declining" at 32, but due to injuries.

Carlson, peaked at 28 and going strong

Disagree with this for dmen.

Pietrangelo has been the same player up until 31, shows no signs of slowing. Best two years stat wise at 28 and 30.

Josi, best year at age 30 and no signs of slowing.

Suter, best year at 31 and 33, looks like he's falling off at 36.

Weber, best year at 28. "declining" at 32, but due to injuries.

Carlson, peaked at 28 and going strong
- DRW1991

And Karlsson, Doughty, and Subban make up 3 of the 4 highest cap hits for D men.

I don’t even agree with the names that you say aren’t declining but even agreeing there are exceptions to the rule it’s not a wise coin flip to make.

Interesting thought: not only does Eichel's NMC come into effect in 2022, but so does McDavid's. Let the fun begin!

Disagree with this for dmen.

Pietrangelo has been the same player up until 31, shows no signs of slowing. Best two years stat wise at 28 and 30.

Josi, best year at age 30 and no signs of slowing.

Suter, best year at 31 and 33, looks like he's falling off at 36.

Weber, best year at 28. "declining" at 32, but due to injuries.

Carlson, peaked at 28 and going strong
- DRW1991

When aging curves have been studied more rigorously, using large samples instead of a few specific examples, the general consensus for a typical aging curve (including defensemen) goes something like:

- Hits peak by ~23-24

- Plateau / gentle decline until ~29-31 or so, still close to peak performance

- More noticeable decline until ~34-35ish; if a player was elite in his 20s he may still be pretty dang good

- More severe decline thereafter

Obviously this is an average, not a hard and fast rule. Still, making that long a bet on that old a player, while not guaranteed to be a disaster, is still a very risky (I would argue unwise) gamble.

I think it's also worth considering the possibility that older defenders, especially those who were elite in their 20s, may tend to be systematically overrated -- moreso than forwards. I think there are a couple of factors that drive this:

- Defensemen rely more on PP points and secondary assists for their scoring totals, which are generally more resistant to aging than 5-on-5 performance.

- Defensive analytics are still less developed / understood by the general public than offensive analytics, so a defender who has a reputation for being excellent defensively may maintain that reputation long after his skills have been in serious decline. See: Doughty, Drew.

And Karlsson, Doughty, and Subban make up 3 of the 4 highest cap hits for D men.

I don’t even agree with the names that you say aren’t declining but even agreeing there are exceptions to the rule it’s not a wise coin flip to make.
- Feds91Stammer

Karlsson had some nasty injuries derail him, but it was obvious that was a terrible terrible contract when signed. Subban was always overrated and the fact the Habs got someone to take his contract was a miracle. Doughty I'll give you.

Could add Duncan Keith, solid through his 35 season.

speaking of washington. Mantha had a 15 game goalless streak to end the season (10 regular season and 5 playoff games)....

speaking of washington. Mantha had a 15 game goalless streak to end the season (10 regular season and 5 playoff games)....
- wingz4life

He did get at least 1 pretty assist on an Ovie goal!