I appreciate the thought.

But it's not happening.
- Scabeh

Stop giving us the reverse curse. RJ killed us with that 2 years ago.

I appreciate the thought.

But it's not happening.
- Scabeh

Have you not watched how the Leafs have gone full Leafy in the playoffs before?

Nah, you'll just move the goal posts again.
- Leafs43

so true

Nah, you'll just move the goal posts again.
- Leafs43

keep on drinking the kool aid.

If the chart showed the Leafs odds of getting to the final 4 as being the highest, I completely get it.

It is that part about suddenly the are cup favourites that is not justifiable.
- Aetherial

I have no idea if it’s realistic. I’m just explaining the logic. Look at this way. The fact that Colorado has almost as good odds as winning even though they play Vegas and we play the Jets shows just how good they are. They would likely be prohibitive favourites in the round of four.

It just discounts your overall odds on the basis of the difficulty of your path.

keep on drinking the kool aid.
- MaximusAurelius

Fire Dubas. Trade Nylander for a 2nd pair D

OK.

So, if there was a playoffs including teams from the English Premier league, and the Championship league. The team coming out of the Championship league has a greater chance of winning because their league is weaker?

The chart falls apart at the end, when the Leafs somehow show up at the top?
- Aetherial

Let's break down the math for you (and I'm using Dom's numbers):

Leafs's chances:

2nd round: 96%
3rd round: 71%
Final: 35%
Stanley Cup: 14%

Lightning's chances:

2nd round: 77%
3rd round: 48%
Final: 27%
Stanley Cup: 13%

Crazy, I know - Leafs have a better chance. But that's because their percentage of making the 3rd round is higher - so they are starting from a bigger base.

If you look at the numbers, the Leafs have a slightly less than 50% chance of winning the 3rd round. And a 40% of winning the final, should they get there.

Tampa would be the overwhelming favourite to win their next round, should they make it there: 48/77. 62% chance. Then slight favourites to win the 3rd round, and almost even to win the Stanley Cup, should they get there.

Once we get into the 2nd round, the odds of the Leafs advancing will go down (but not much, as they will be heavy favourites to beat the Jets - according to the stats-driven models).

Once we hit the 3rd round, the Leafs will become underdogs.

It's just math.

Agreed but those personnel changes are still serving us well. Jack played well but that was a pretty strong defensive game last night.
- Canada Cup

Yeah. I sort of echo Scabs' comment - I don't know if it's the Leafs' D is playing well or the Habs' Offense is just so poor. Maybe it's a bit of both. The Leafs' have definitely made some nice adjustments this season and the addition of Brodie is great - but the ability of a real solid offense to sluice through them, especially the slower guys on the back-end like Holl or Bogosian is evident.

Hopefully we win the series and then can see what adjustments are necessary against the Jets who have a few more pure scorers to contend with.

Wait what? Did this happen? I feel like I missed a whole branch of the convo here.

(nevermind, I think I sort of get it now)
- Aetherial

no, it hasn't happened...Yet.

It was in reference to the speech Ken Holland has to give to McDavid about sacrificing offense to play defense first..

I appreciate the thought.

But it's not happening.
- Scabeh

Amazon is doing a Leafs documentary this year. They’ve got the resources to get cameras on lots of those 2500 ticket holders as the clock winds down on tomorrow’s game. Should make for good tv

I have no idea if it’s realistic. I’m just explaining the logic. Look at this way. The fact that Colorado has almost as good odds as winning even though they play Vegas and we play the Jets shows just how good they are. They would likely be prohibitive favourites in the round of four.

It just discounts your overall odds on the basis of the difficulty of your path.
- Canada Cup

Yes, I think the problem is that is splits the odds among what are projected as the best teams.

Three of those best teams are going to be in the mix if the Leafs get out of the North.

So, what you said earlier makes more sense... that chart is going to change significantly I think.

exactly

If the Habs pop a couple early ones, those gonads are gonna get sucked right up into the Leafs lungs

I believe this Leafs team is different though.

Then I think about something about Lucy and a football
- Aetherial

I keep saying (when the fellow leaf fans in my life like my wife, brother, Best bud etc.) all start fretting over the smallest stuff and starting to act all Chicken Little-ish, "if you want to be a winner you have to think like a winner so I'm going to keep on thinking like the Leafs will be fine and will win".

Then I sneak away and clutch my knees to my chest while gently rocking back and forth praying to the hockey gods and mumbling things like "Game 7, it was 4-1......Jake Gardnier, (frank)ing Boston.....".

The rational me says they are better than Montreal and will win the series period. Crazy me says "oh god don't let Montreal win a game and see any glimmer of hope here"......any true Leaf fan has some PTSD for sure!

The good news - look at the roster from their worst collapse in a game 7 and today's roster - night and day.

Leafs in 5 baby!

Go Leafs Go

#win4jt

Let's break down the math for you (and I'm using Dom's numbers):

Leafs's chances:

2nd round: 96%
3rd round: 71%
Final: 35%
Stanley Cup: 14%

Lightning's chances:

2nd round: 77%
3rd round: 48%
Final: 27%
Stanley Cup: 13%

Crazy, I know - Leafs have a better chance. But that's because their percentage of making the 3rd round is higher - so they are starting from a bigger base.

If you look at the numbers, the Leafs have a slightly less than 50% chance of winning the 3rd round. And a 40% of winning the final, should they get there.

Tampa would be the overwhelming favourite to win their next round, should they make it there: 48/77. 62% chance. Then slight favourites to win the 3rd round, and almost even to win the Stanley Cup, should they get there.

Once we get into the 2nd round, the odds of the Leafs advancing will go down (but not much, as they will be heavy favourites to beat the Jets - according to the stats-driven models).

Once we hit the 3rd round, the Leafs will become underdogs.

It's just math.
- Atomic Wedgie

It’s math and it’s destiny

no, it hasn't happened...Yet.

It was in reference to the speech Ken Holland has to give to McDavid about sacrificing offense to play defense first..
- PatC80

Yeah, I forget who posted that.

What a mess. The team fails, so the best player in the league needs to up his game.

WTF. It isn't the 3 guys there who are the problem, it is the other 20 FFS.

I keep saying (when the fellow leaf fans in my life like my wife, brother Best bud etc.) all start fretting over the smallest stuff and starting to act all Chicken Little-ish, "if you want to be a winner you have to think like a winner so I'm going to keep on thinking like the Leafs will be fine and will win".

Then I sneak away and clutch my knees to my chest while gently rocking back and forth praying to the hockey gods and mumbling things like "Game 7, it was 4-1......Jake Gardnier, (frank)ing Boston.....".

The rational me says they are better than Montreal and will win the series period. Crazy me says "oh god don't let Montreal win a game and see any glimmer of hope here"......any true Leaf fan has some PTSD for sure!

The good news - look at the roster from their worst collapse in a game 7 and today's roster - night and day.

Leafs in 5 baby!

Go Leafs Go

#win4jt
- Cush29

My brother

Fire Dubas. Trade Nylander for a 2nd pair D
- RogerRoeper

yes except I never said trade Nylander for a 2nd pair D. (I mentioned McAvoy, Provorov, Seth Jones as targets for the Leafs)

I just agreed to do a small favour for a former colleague.

"Sure, send me a meeting invite!"

They asked for a meeting on Friday, June 25th at 4 pm.

I'm hoping it was a joke.

Yeah. I sort of echo Scabs' comment - I don't know if it's the Leafs' D is playing well or the Habs' Offense is just so poor. Maybe it's a bit of both. The Leafs' have definitely made some nice adjustments this season and the addition of Brodie is great - but the ability of a real solid offense to sluice through them, especially the slower guys on the back-end like Holl or Bogosian is evident.

Hopefully we win the series and then can see what adjustments are necessary against the Jets who have a few more pure scorers to contend with.
- Monkeypunk

I think it has more to do with our team defense to be honest.. Our forwards are playing better in the defensive zone, and are more physical down low in our zone.. Marner seems to have become a much more effective penalty killer and Campbell hasn't had to make the difficult saves that Price has..

Let's break down the math for you (and I'm using Dom's numbers):

Leafs's chances:

2nd round: 96%
3rd round: 71%
Final: 35%
Stanley Cup: 14%

Lightning's chances:

2nd round: 77%
3rd round: 48%
Final: 27%
Stanley Cup: 13%

Crazy, I know - Leafs have a better chance. But that's because their percentage of making the 3rd round is higher - so they are starting from a bigger base.

If you look at the numbers, the Leafs have a slightly less than 50% chance of winning the 3rd round. And a 40% of winning the final, should they get there.

Tampa would be the overwhelming favourite to win their next round, should they make it there: 48/77. 62% chance. Then slight favourites to win the 3rd round, and almost even to win the Stanley Cup, should they get there.

Once we get into the 2nd round, the odds of the Leafs advancing will go down (but not much, as they will be heavy favourites to beat the Jets - according to the stats-driven models).

Once we hit the 3rd round, the Leafs will become underdogs.

It's just math.
- Atomic Wedgie

I get the bigger base odds of the Leafs getting to the Semi's

I think that, on one hand the chart recognizes the tougher competition but then on the other hand there doesnt seem to be much allowance for that once that once the semi's start.

Leafs need to get past Montreal.
Then Winnipeg, which won't be easy.

At that point, I think they have a legit chance. I would also not believe they are a favourite. Tampa/Carolina/Colorado/Vegas I would favour over the Leafs. Injuries and wear and tear may change that opinion

YES

Teams have come back from 3-1 deficits. There have been a lot of close games and Price is playing amazing right now; we could totally get goalied still...
- gravyface

Leafs have to beat a TB, COL, CAR in a series starting from 0 to win a cup.

Being up 3-1 to the Habs are the least of my worries.

keep on drinking the kool aid.
- MaximusAurelius

Keep on pretending to like this team.

Yeah, I forget who posted that.

What a mess. The team fails, so the best player in the league needs to up his game.

WTF. It isn't the 3 guys there who are the problem, it is the other 20 FFS.
- Aetherial

We call that Kessel Syndrome.

So if I understand all of this correctly, winning the cup is hard?

It's just math.
- Atomic Wedgie

So if I understand all of this correctly, winning the cup is hard?
- TheMussel

" Not for the Leafs - SC is practically won already!" - Roger