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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Penguins ride and Penguins die with Tristan Jarry, season over
Author Message
MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

May 27 @ 9:49 AM ET
One guy who I like and happens to wear very long pants is Jamie Benn.

He is getting older and his contract is a doozy, but he is the guy I have always thought would be the perfect LW for Sid. Someone who can take pressure off him down low and do some of the dirty work. Dallas needs a shakeup as much as we do...

Guentzel & Petterson/Matheson for Benn? Throw in negotiating rights for Oleksiak.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

May 27 @ 9:50 AM ET
I wonder if Landeskog will make it to free agency and if so, how much he'll cost. The Pens could use a player like him.

Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

May 27 @ 9:50 AM ET
One guy who I like and happens to wear very long pants is Jamie Benn.

He is getting older and his contract is a doozy, but he is the guy I have always thought would be the perfect LW for Sid. Someone who can take pressure off him down low and do some of the dirty work. Dallas needs a shakeup as much as we do...

Guentzel & Petterson/Matheson for Benn? Throw in negotiating rights for Oleksiak.

- MacPatty


Dude...
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

May 27 @ 9:51 AM ET
Agee entirely. How do you get them?
- madmike71

Probably requires some sort of sacrifice ritual.
dozerD10
Anaheim Ducks
Location: long beach, CA
Joined: 01.29.2014

May 27 @ 9:51 AM ET
Jake is absolutely not the problem. He has been awesome for the Pens and is on an awesome contract. That said, in the right deal he is definitely our best trade chip.

I'm not sure the Ducks are the right fit (what is their strategy moving forward?) but something around Jake for Gibson would be interesting. Everyone needs to understand though, Gibson comes with risk... He has a big contract with a ton of term left. Not all goalies hold up later in their career as well as Fleury has. If we are talking Jake for Gibson, it is Anaheim that needs to sweeten the package not the other way around.

Id be interested in:

Jake & Jarry for Gibson & Terry (we would likely need to add for Terry, Delauriers would also be a less desirable option but one I might still pull the trigger on).

Jake, Jarry, Marino for Gibson, Manson & Milano (cap).

- MacPatty


Gibby’s cap hit is nice for a top tender. He has been right at the of the in expected goal saved above average. His term is fine. I absolutely don’t want whatever the Penguins had a net back in a trade. Stolarz Will be fine for one year and then Dostal is just going take over… he’s the real deal.

We’ve got problems …. but one thing we do very well as draft goalies and Dmen…

We need Jake to play with Z.

So the trade starts with Jake and Gibson and we can fill in the edges after that.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

May 27 @ 9:51 AM ET
I wonder if Landeskog will make it to free agency and if so, how much he'll cost. The Pens could use a player like him.
- Rinosaur

Doubt he goes to UFA and if he did it would be because he priced himself out of Colorado which would mean the pens couldn’t afford him.
MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

May 27 @ 9:52 AM ET
I wonder if Landeskog will make it to free agency and if so, how much he'll cost. The Pens could use a player like him.
- Rinosaur


He is going to hit free agency long enough for Colorado to pass through the expansion draft and then resign. I would LOVE to get him but he is going nowhere. No chance.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

May 27 @ 9:54 AM ET
Realistic options are probably Saad and a 3 way deal to acquire Bertuzzi.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

May 27 @ 9:55 AM ET
One guy who I like and happens to wear very long pants is Jamie Benn.

He is getting older and his contract is a doozy, but he is the guy I have always thought would be the perfect LW for Sid. Someone who can take pressure off him down low and do some of the dirty work. Dallas needs a shakeup as much as we do...

Guentzel & Petterson/Matheson for Benn? Throw in negotiating rights for Oleksiak.

- MacPatty


This is (frank)ing brutal.
dozerD10
Anaheim Ducks
Location: long beach, CA
Joined: 01.29.2014

May 27 @ 9:56 AM ET
I don't want to trade him either, but when you're shopping for other top tier players (like Gibson), you pay a top tier price. I think they can "paper" over the loss of Jake. They clearly can't paper over crap goal tending.

Although... I noticed Gibson's numbers aren't so hot the last couple. I'm sure that teams decline is most of the story.

- madmike71



Yep not having Hampus or Josh back there for large parts of the season and… Not being able to give Gibson more than literally 1.7 goals a game pretty much means he has to pitch shut outs to get wins…

It’s like when Steve Carlton or King Felix won the Cy Young with a 500 record…

Gibson didn’t forget how to stop the puck…

We just can’t score for sheeeeeeeettttt

Blackstrom2
Washington Capitals
Location: richmond, VA
Joined: 10.11.2010

May 27 @ 9:56 AM ET
This is (frank)ing brutal.
- j.boyd919


I like it.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

May 27 @ 9:57 AM ET
Realistic options are probably Saad and a 3 way deal to acquire Bertuzzi.
- Feds91Stammer


Yeah I think Saad is probably going to be the most realistic target, and probably a good one. He fits the mold of a Jeff Carter type.
nateca444
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: butler, PA
Joined: 08.13.2020

May 27 @ 9:57 AM ET
This is (frank)ing brutal.
- j.boyd919



Wouldn't Dallas have to overpay for Guentzal?
MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

May 27 @ 9:58 AM ET
Gibby’s cap hit is nice for a top tender. He has been right at the of the in expected goal saved above average. His term is fine. I absolutely don’t want whatever the Penguins had a net back in a trade. Stolarz Will be fine for one year and then Dostal is just going take over… he’s the real deal.

We’ve got problems …. but one thing we do very well as draft goalies and Dmen…

We need Jake to play with Z.

So the trade starts with Jake and Gibson and we can fill in the edges after that.

- dozerD10


I certainly get why you wouldn't want to take Jarry, but I think he has to be included for the Pens to make this type of move. He only has 2 years left, I am sure the Ducks could use him as a backup for one year and then trade him as a rental.

My big question for you is "What is the plan" for the Ducks? Are you rebuilding or retooling or what? Some pretty good players on that team but definitely not competing right now.
BINGO!
Carolina Hurricanes
Location: I'll always remember the last words my grandfather ever told me. He said, "A Truck!", SK
Joined: 09.21.2009

May 27 @ 10:00 AM ET
One guy who I like and happens to wear very long pants is Jamie Benn.

He is getting older and his contract is a doozy, but he is the guy I have always thought would be the perfect LW for Sid. Someone who can take pressure off him down low and do some of the dirty work. Dallas needs a shakeup as much as we do...

Guentzel & Petterson/Matheson for Benn? Throw in negotiating rights for Oleksiak.

- MacPatty


ha

haha

hahaha

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAA
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

May 27 @ 10:04 AM ET
ha

haha

hahaha

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAA

- BINGO!


Yea, (frank)ing brutal.
MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

May 27 @ 10:06 AM ET
Yea, (frank)ing brutal.
- j.boyd919


You better get prepared... top line of Benn-Crosby-Kassian coming next season.

And if you think that suggestion was brutal, wait until I start listing off Malkin trades
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

May 27 @ 10:07 AM ET
You better get prepared... top line of Benn-Crosby-Kassian coming next season.

And if you think that suggestion was brutal, wait until I start listing off Malkin trades

- MacPatty



You're a good sport, MacPatty. No question.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

May 27 @ 10:08 AM ET
You better get prepared... top line of Benn-Crosby-Kassian coming next season.

And if you think that suggestion was brutal, wait until I start listing off Malkin trades

- MacPatty

Is the goal to tank? If so great job so far.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

May 27 @ 10:08 AM ET
You better get prepared... top line of Benn-Crosby-Kassian coming next season.

And if you think that suggestion was brutal, wait until I start listing off Malkin trades

- MacPatty


Most of your opinions are brutal. It’s well known around here.
Victoro311
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: San Diego, CA
Joined: 06.17.2014

May 27 @ 10:09 AM ET
I'm not FOR it. I'm just not against it if handled the right away. Yeah, you may have to pay more for Jake's production, but if it's for a player who's dynamic might change the team in a good way then I think it's worth at least exploring. That's all I'm saying.

There are always angles that we as fans don't necessarily see that a good GM will.

- Rinosaur

I think if you're not going to be against it you need to really understand what it is you're ok with doing. In the three year sample between Guentzel's first full season in 2017-2018 and last season, Guentzel's been the 5th highest wing in 5v5 pts/60, and the 10th highest wing in 5v5 goals/60 after filtering out for players that played less than 1000 minutes over that time frame. For those three years, he was literally a top 10 offensive winger in terms of production on an eventual $5.5 mil contract.

This season, Guentzel dropped to the 58th wing in 5v5 pts/60 after filtering out for players with less than 400 minutes TOI and lower than that for goal scoring which I don't feel like manually counting out.

This season is a huge outlier in terms of production for Guentzel. Not only that, but pretty much all of his underlying numbers tanked as well. Both in raw percentages and relative to teammates. So that's the context: a pretty bad age 26 season by his standards where he was still pretty much earning his keep at $5.5 mil. If you're considering trading Guentzel, it's basically because you're betting that the aging curve has already started to hit him at age 26, and it hit HARD. Like disproportionately hard to what we should be seeing at age 26. Sure, 27 is at the end of the scoring prime, so it's pretty reasonable to predict that Guentzel will never be a top 10 offensive wing again, but at $5.5 he doesn't have to be. Any kind of regression to the mean, even a moderate one, makes him a huge bargain. That's not the player you trade to change the team dynamic. But if you're positive that this season is indicative of Guentzel's play moving forward and he's just an average top 6 forward now making about market value, then being ok with moving him for a change of identity is more understandable.
j.boyd919
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Tampa, FL
Joined: 06.14.2011

May 27 @ 10:09 AM ET
You're a good sport, MacPatty. No question.
- MattStrat


You’re charmin soft mentality around here is nauseating. Put the weed down and smoke some meth.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

May 27 @ 10:10 AM ET
You’re charmin soft mentality around here is nauseating. Put the weed down and smoke some meth.
- j.boyd919


hahaha the guy gets flat out grilled and never really fights back, is all I meant. Now go fvck yourself hahah
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

May 27 @ 10:12 AM ET
I think if you're not going to be against it you need to really understand what it is you're ok with doing. In the three year sample between Guentzel's first full season in 2017-2018 and last season, Guentzel's been the 5th highest wing in 5v5 pts/60, and the 10th highest wing in 5v5 goals/60 after filtering out for players that played less than 1000 minutes over that time frame. For those three years, he was literally a top 10 offensive winger in terms of production on an eventual $5.5 mil contract.

This season, Guentzel dropped to the 58th wing in 5v5 pts/60 after filtering out for players with less than 400 minutes TOI and lower than that for goal scoring which I don't feel like manually counting out.

This season is a huge outlier in terms of production for Guentzel. Not only that, but pretty much all of his underlying numbers tanked as well. Both in raw percentages and relative to teammates. So that's the context: a pretty bad age 26 season by his standards where he was still pretty much earning his keep at $5.5 mil. If you're considering trading Guentzel, it's basically because you're betting that the aging curve has already started to hit him at age 26, and it hit HARD. Like disproportionately hard to what we should be seeing at age 26. Sure, 27 is at the end of the scoring prime, so it's pretty reasonable to predict that Guentzel will never be a top 10 offensive wing again, but at $5.5 he doesn't have to be. Any kind of regression to the mean, even a moderate one, makes him a huge bargain. That's not the player you trade to change the team dynamic. But if you're positive that this season is indicative of Guentzel's play moving forward and he's just an average top 6 forward now making about market value, then being ok with moving him for a change of identity is more understandable.

- Victoro311



It took him a long time to start looking like himself after that kind of injury, surgery for it and a very, very long layoff. Those things are a big factor in his numbers this season and how bad he looked vs the Habs in August.
Blackstrom2
Washington Capitals
Location: richmond, VA
Joined: 10.11.2010

May 27 @ 10:13 AM ET
You better get prepared... top line of Benn-Crosby-Kassian coming next season.

And if you think that suggestion was brutal, wait until I start listing off Malkin trades

- MacPatty


Malkin for Doughty.
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