If ZAR/Blueger/Tanev combine for 7.5 Million but score at a 45 goal/season pace and go against the other teams SC1, why do we care if we classify them as 3rd or 4th line?

Sure, we can go and get a 4th line that makes a total of 4 million that is "shutdown" but if they can't move the needle and provide any scoring is it really worth it?

We can't dismiss how impressive 15 goals/season (each player) with primarily PK and shutdown duty is why we slobber over guys like Rust and wonder how we'd replace his 30 goal pace while he gets PP time, offensive zone starts, and plays 3rd wheel with Jake and Sid
- TheGame316

Tanev did really great in a shutdown role this season. Ovi was the forward he went against the most and Tanev posted an insane 23% xGF. WoRtH eVeRy PeNnY

Tanev did really great in a shutdown role this season. Ovi was the forward he went against the most and Tanev posted an insane 23% xGF. WoRtH eVeRy PeNnY
- Feds91Stammer

http://naturalstattrick.c...9293&p3=8476927&p4=0&p5=0

Here's the with or without you stats if anyone wants to peep them.

That line wasn't really that great at limiting opportunities.

They did go 6-0 GF/GA though.

Tanev did really great in a shutdown role this season. Ovi was the forward he went against the most and Tanev posted an insane 23% xGF. WoRtH eVeRy PeNnY
- Feds91Stammer

Didn’t the pens have a higher xgf than nyi in the playoffs and how did that turn out? Boston too?

Ovi also only recorded 1 goal, and 3 assists in 8 games. 1 assist was on the pp. the goal came in January vs a decimated defence and piss poor goaltending to start the year. I’ll take real results over expected goals.

http://naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20202021&thruseason=20202021&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=PIT&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2021-05-15&td=2021-06-15&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8479944&p2=8479293&p3=8476927&p4=0&p5=0

Here's the with or without you stats if anyone wants to peep them.

That line wasn't really that great at limiting opportunities.

They did go 6-0 GF/GA though.
- j.boyd919

Pretty big difference in how good Tanev and ZAR are away from Blue than with him....

Didn’t the pens have a higher xgf than nyi in the playoffs and how did that turn out? Boston too?

Ovi also only recorded 1 goal, and 3 assists in 8 games. 1 assist was on the pp. the goal came in January vs a decimated defence and piss poor goaltending to start the year. I’ll take real results over expected goals.
- 10inchTerror

Of course you want those real results, but expected goals is one of the better predictors of play (over other single analytics). While the actual results worked out in the Pens favor in this case, if that matchup kept continuing, it probably would have not went well for the Pens.

Pretty big difference in how good Tanev and ZAR are away from Blue than with him....
- MattStrat

If you're talkin combined, it was only 23 minutes so I dunno how much stock to put into that.

ZAR away from both of them was pretty (frank)ing good in 188 min.
Tanev away from ZAR and Blue was pretty good in 116 min.

It's interesting that each player performed better away from that 3 man line.

If you're talkin combined, it was only 23 minutes so I dunno how much stock to put into that.

ZAR away from both of them was pretty (frank)ing good in 188 min.
Tanev away from ZAR and Blue was pretty good in 116 min.

It's interesting that each player performed better away from that 3 man line.
- j.boyd919

Very interesting....certainly goes against a strong narrative, the I also take part in, around these parts....

EDIT: its almost as if these guys could be broken up and sprinkled up through the lineup and contribute more....maybe...

EDIT: Ive never really been against any of those 3 getting extended looks in the top 9....I think each of them could do well in there...

Very interesting....certainly goes against a strong narrative, the I also take part in, around these parts....

EDIT: its almost as if these guys could be broken up and sprinkled up through the lineup and contribute more....maybe...
- MattStrat

Jesse Marshall wanted to try Blue with Geno. I wasn't really about it tbh lol seems a bit above his level, but it doesn't hurt to try for 4-5 games to see if there's anything there, especially if we get back to 82 game seasons.

Pretty big difference in how good Tanev and ZAR are away from Blue than with him....
- MattStrat

In only like 20 minutes of TOI so can't really scrutinize that hard. All three of those players get pretty big bumps when they're away from the other two. Easy to figure that when they're not together they're either getting a bump in quality of teammate (hard to go down from the 4th line) or getting an easier assignment because Sullivan doesn't trust the line as much.

When you have a 4th line mostly breaking even on most metrics while controlling HDCF% on an overwhelmingly defensive assignment, I think that's absurdly valuable. Most teams have to hide their 4th line to find success. Throwing our fourth line to the wolves on awful assignments is an actual option, even if the results aren't immaculate.

Jesse Marshall wanted to try Blue with Geno. I wasn't really about it tbh lol seems a bit above his level, but it doesn't hurt to try for 4-5 games to see if there's anything there, especially if we get back to 82 game seasons.
- j.boyd919

Hahah yeah I kind of just said similar things in my edits haha.

Tanev is paid like he should be in top 9 and if the other two stick around and get raises perhaps it should be explored.

In only like 20 minutes of TOI so can't really scrutinize that hard. All three of those players get pretty big bumps when they're away from the other two. Easy to figure that when they're not together they're either getting a bump in quality of teammate (hard to go down from the 4th line) or getting an easier assignment because Sullivan doesn't trust the line as much.

When you have a 4th line mostly breaking even on most metrics while controlling HDCF% on an overwhelmingly defensive assignment, I think that's absurdly valuable. Most teams have to hide their 4th line to find success. Throwing our fourth line to the wolves on awful assignments is an actual option, even if the results aren't immaculate.
- Victoro311

Yeah I overlooked TOI and I agree thats valuable but also do think these guys could be good and contribute if they were bumped up through the lineup.

In only like 20 minutes of TOI so can't really scrutinize that hard. All three of those players get pretty big bumps when they're away from the other two. Easy to figure that when they're not together they're either getting a bump in quality of teammate (hard to go down from the 4th line) or getting an easier assignment because Sullivan doesn't trust the line as much.

When you have a 4th line mostly breaking even on most metrics while controlling HDCF% on an overwhelmingly defensive assignment, I think that's absurdly valuable. Most teams have to hide their 4th line to find success. Throwing our fourth line to the wolves on awful assignments is an actual option, even if the results aren't immaculate.
- Victoro311

I definitely agree with that.

Yeah I overlooked TOI and I agree thats valuable but also do think these guys could be good and contribute if they were bumped up through the lineup.
- MattStrat

Don't disagree. Like you said, if Tanev's gonna be paid like middle 6, from a value perspective we may need to start deploying him like it. Stats back it enough that its worth a look if Hextall has trouble finding the top 9 pieces we need this summer. I also think Blueger is a bit miscast in the checking role. He has a lot more offense to give I think and he seems to be the weakest defensive link in the checking line. That said, centers have harder defensive responsibility than wingers so I'm not sure how much I'm going to hold that against him, and we also have Carter for one more year, so 4C is fine for him for now.

The tough one is ZAR. He has the biggest individual positive impact on any line he's on out of the three, but he also produces the least by a sizable margin. Gives me Hagelin vibes a bit in the sense that he can really help a line further up the food chain out, but you have to make sure he's with the right offensive talent.

Seattle is going to have to take some bigger contracts to reach the floor and IMO, unless they view Zucker or Matheson as among the better players available with bigger contracts, I think ZAR is as good as gone.

Don't disagree. Like you said, if Tanev's gonna be paid like middle 6, from a value perspective we may need to start deploying him like it. Stats back it enough that its worth a look if Hextall has trouble finding the top 9 pieces we need this summer. I also think Blueger is a bit miscast in the checking role. He has a lot more offense to give I think and he seems to be the weakest defensive link in the checking line. That said, centers have harder defensive responsibility than wingers so I'm not sure how much I'm going to hold that against him, and we also have Carter for one more year, so 4C is fine for him for now.

The tough one is ZAR. He has the biggest individual positive impact on any line he's on out of the three, but he also produces the least by a sizable margin. Gives me Hagelin vibes a bit in the sense that he can really help a line further up the food chain out, but you have to make sure he's with the right offensive talent.
- Victoro311

Yeah, ZAR is a tough one and the Hags comparison is good. When he first entered the scene I thought he was gonna be a net front guy kinda like Horny and I still think if he went to that place he has the tool set to be effective there...but...probably not gonna go that way at this point. I seem to remember him a few years back looking really good with Geno but perhaps I dreamt that haha

Seattle is going to have to take some bigger contracts to reach the floor and IMO, unless they view Zucker or Matheson as among the better players available with bigger contracts, I think ZAR is as good as gone.
- Rinosaur

Personally I think it's Zucker if the Pens don't protect him.

Actually, the 3 seasons before this one Geno and ZAR have pretty good numbers...

http://naturalstattrick.c...p2=8471215&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

Tanev did really great in a shutdown role this season. Ovi was the forward he went against the most and Tanev posted an insane 23% xGF. WoRtH eVeRy PeNnY
- Feds91Stammer

I thought he played great against the Isles in the 1st Rd. He really stood out

Personally I think it's Zucker if the Pens don't protect him.
- j.boyd919

Zucks has Kraken fodder written all over him to me hahah

Actually, the 3 seasons before this one Geno and ZAR have pretty good numbers...

http://naturalstattrick.c...p2=8471215&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
- MattStrat

Yeah I seem to remember him getting a short stint with Geno and that line not looking awful but people complaining because ZAR has hands of stone.

Personally I think it's Zucker if the Pens don't protect him.
- j.boyd919

Think or hope?

Seattle is going to have to take some bigger contracts to reach the floor and IMO, unless they view Zucker or Matheson as among the better players available with bigger contracts, I think ZAR is as good as gone.
- Rinosaur

I have a feeling they are going to clean up at the expansion draft and Draft with everybody looking to dump bad contracts

I thought he played great against the Isles in the 1st Rd. He really stood out
- Isles

He was good...battled tooth and nail every shift... he had a 92.6 HDSC% in the series hahah...and scored a game winner

I thought he played great against the Isles in the 1st Rd. He really stood out
- Isles

Honestly, he stands out in every game because he skates around at million MPH and hits people. That's just his style. He's an energy guy for sure. But I also feel like he's one of those annoying gnats that doesn't do a ton of "damage" but just annoys you lol and none of that is a dig on Tanev at all.

Think or hope?
- Rinosaur

Think. Zucker is the better player, if you have the opportunity to take a top 6 guy or a bottom 6 guy, I think you'd be dumb to take the bottom 6 guy.