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Forums :: Blog World :: Mike Augello: Leafs autopsy and projections for 2021-22 - Coaching
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Scabeh
Montreal Canadiens
Location: The Slovakian Jagr, QC
Joined: 02.25.2007

Jun 22 @ 11:50 AM ET
They absolutely are. 1 goal, 5 points, 0 goals 4 points.

Matthews makes enough money that he should be expected to score no matter who's on his wing. A Céline Dion cutout would get 30 points next to McD or Crosby. Matthews makes the big bucks and is expected to produce at a high level at all times. He didn't. The "Marner dragged him down" excuse is absolute trash. I'm not even saying he didn't, I'm saying he's supposed to be good enough where that shouldn't happen. But nobody is prepared to say he didn't get the job done either.

- UsernameUnknown


Not to overly defend Matthews here.

But the Danault effect needs to be considered.

How many points did Kyle Connor or Wheeler get?

How many points are Pacioretty and Stone getting right now.

Guy is an expert defensive forward.
joel878
Joined: 06.13.2009

Jun 22 @ 11:50 AM ET
So, you could warm up to the idea of Connor Brown plus a 2nd for Marner?
- spatso


I could warm up to the idea of you never saying that again?

Marner is a massive asset on the trade market. Why? Because every team is at a different juncture in terms of how they value a player.

Playoff short comings would be a hindrance to the tampas and Colorados of the league who are making moves because their window is open now. The bottom tier would see a young, crazy talented regular season PPG player who would put asses in seats and they can develop for a few years further before having to worry about playoff production.

You need to dangle your ridiculous Connor Brown angle at the Drouins of the league.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jun 22 @ 11:50 AM ET
I admittedly do not put much stock in his assist totals. It comes back to opportunity for me and the belief that a 4-5 million dollar winger is going to be capable of producing the same totals with that opportunity.

It's the proven drop-off from regular season to playoffs which speaks loudest for me. It may be acceptable at a lower dollar value, but at the 7th highest cap hit in the entire league it's not.

I also believe that 32 career playoff games is a decent enough sample period to know what we can expect going forward.

His output when it counts factored against cap hit is a hindrance and you have to spend your money better if you want to win a cup in this league 🤷🏻‍♂️

- joel878

He is 23. Relax.
UsernameUnknown
Seattle Kraken
Location: Gotta' Catch Em All!
Joined: 03.25.2013

Jun 22 @ 11:50 AM ET
Andersen played through an injury this year not last year.
- Santo_44


Rielly sucked aaaall season. All of it. Games 1-56.

But had a decent playoffs.
joel878
Joined: 06.13.2009

Jun 22 @ 11:52 AM ET
They absolutely are. 1 goal, 5 points, 0 goals 4 points.

Matthews makes enough money that he should be expected to score no matter who's on his wing. A Céline Dion cutout would get 30 points next to McD or Crosby. Matthews makes the big bucks and is expected to produce at a high level at all times. He didn't. The "Marner dragged him down" excuse is absolute trash. I'm not even saying Marner didn't, I'm saying Matthews is supposed to be good enough where that shouldn't happen. But nobody is prepared to say he didn't get the job done either.

- UsernameUnknown


Except the Celine Dion cutouts didn't do poop next to Crosby or McDavid this year either.

Matthews played, Marner went into scared little kid mode. Two very different things and one should be of way bigger concern than the other.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jun 22 @ 11:52 AM ET
Rielly sucked aaaall season. All of it. Games 1-56.

But had a decent playoffs.

- UsernameUnknown

Yeah he was going through an injury and was still producing as a top 4 D man.

Don't think Rielly will have that injury for the rest of his career. The playoffs showed it was healed.
joel878
Joined: 06.13.2009

Jun 22 @ 11:55 AM ET
25 points in 32 games

5 points in 15 games

- Santo_44


I don't care about Marner piling up assists playing top line minutes with the leagues most gifted scorer. I don't.

That's the kind of logic you use to validate why your overpaid 3rd liners aren't overpaid. Not to validate why he's the 7th highest paid player in the league.
UsernameUnknown
Seattle Kraken
Location: Gotta' Catch Em All!
Joined: 03.25.2013

Jun 22 @ 11:55 AM ET
Not to overly defend Matthews here.

But the Danault effect needs to be considered.

How many points did Kyle Connor or Wheeler get?

How many points are Pacioretty and Stone getting right now.

Guy is an expert defensive forward.

- Scabeh


He's done really well all these pkayoffs. I agree. But Matthews and Marner are on the same line. Matthews getting shut down affects Marners productivity. I think Marner felt like everything was supposed to constantly be running through him. Marner always had the puck way too long because a play never developed in front of him. He had nowhere to go with it and then he'd lose it when his man pressured him. And whenever Matthews got the puck, I could probably say the exact same thing.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jun 22 @ 11:56 AM ET
I don't care about Marner piling up assists playing top line minutes with the leagues most gifted scorer. I don't.

That's the kind of logic you use to validate why your overpaid 3rd liners aren't overpaid. Not to validate why he's the 7th highest paid player in the league.

- joel878


Marner has proved he can pile up assists without Matthews. Don't even try that.

Also Marner has been with AM only the last two playoff series.
joel878
Joined: 06.13.2009

Jun 22 @ 11:57 AM ET
He is 23. Relax.
- Santo_44


Oh (frank) off with the relax stuff, you're one of the first ones on the edge of a cliff talking about people having their panties in a bunch because their own opinion is different. 🤦🏻‍♂️
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jun 22 @ 11:57 AM ET
He's done really well all these pkayoffs. I agree. But Matthews and Marner are on the same line. Matthews getting shut down affects Marners productivity. I think Marner felt like everything was supposed to constantly be running through him. Marner always had the puck way too long because a play never developed in front of him. He had nowhere to go with it and then he'd lose it when his man pressured him. And whenever Matthews got the puck, I could probably say the exact same thing.
- UsernameUnknown


I'd like the Leafs to entertain

Line 1 AM
Line 2 JT, Marner
Line 3 Nylander

Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jun 22 @ 11:58 AM ET
Oh (frank) off with the relax stuff, you're one of the first ones on the edge of a cliff talking about people having their panties in a bunch because their own opinion is different. 🤦🏻‍♂️
- joel878


Ok
UsernameUnknown
Seattle Kraken
Location: Gotta' Catch Em All!
Joined: 03.25.2013

Jun 22 @ 11:59 AM ET
I don't care about Marner piling up assists playing top line minutes with the leagues most gifted scorer. I don't.

That's the kind of logic you use to validate why your overpaid 3rd liners aren't overpaid. Not to validate why he's the 7th highest paid player in the league.

- joel878


And when the most gifted goal scorer's wing man, you know, one of the best playmakers in the game, disappeared, Matthews dried up.
11.6M getting you 1 goal in 7 games is poop.

They both sucked.
nbboy
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 07.05.2010

Jun 22 @ 11:59 AM ET
Marner for Chabot and Brannstrom
- Garnie

Yes please
joel878
Joined: 06.13.2009

Jun 22 @ 12:00 PM ET
I'd like the Leafs to entertain

Line 1 AM
Line 2 JT, Marner
Line 3 Nylander

- Santo_44


Yes, put the only guy who produced on the third line, bet that will address the playoff scoring woes.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jun 22 @ 12:01 PM ET
eafs Updates
@UpdateLeafs
·
7m
Michael Russo says from what he’s heard from other GMs, Dubas is sincere about not making any of the Core 4 available.

Leafs Updates
@UpdateLeafs
·
1h
Elliotte Friedman on 31 Thoughts reiterates that the Leafs will “swing for the fences” for a player this offseason.
#LeafsForever
nbboy
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 07.05.2010

Jun 22 @ 12:01 PM ET
Wow.

I've seen lowball offers before.

But WOW.

- Scabeh

joel878
Joined: 06.13.2009

Jun 22 @ 12:01 PM ET
And when the most gifted goal scores wing man, you know, one of the best playmakers in the game, disappeared, Matthews dried up.
11.6M getting you 1 goal in 7 games is poop.

They both sucked.

- UsernameUnknown


If I just watched the stat sheet, I would agree with you. Watching the games told a very different story. One player was engaged and trying to make a difference, the other wanted his mommy.
UsernameUnknown
Seattle Kraken
Location: Gotta' Catch Em All!
Joined: 03.25.2013

Jun 22 @ 12:01 PM ET
I'd like the Leafs to entertain

Line 1 AM
Line 2 JT, Marner
Line 3 Nylander

- Santo_44


I dont mind it. Willy with Matthews is fine too.
But I do like the idea of splitting Matthews/Marner up. That way if one goes cold, they don't both go cold.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jun 22 @ 12:02 PM ET
Yes, put the only guy who produced on the third line, bet that will address the playoff scoring woes.
- joel878


Worked for the Pens with their cup.

Kessel had a PPG on the "3rd line"
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: This world is just a veil and the face you wear is not your own., ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jun 22 @ 12:03 PM ET
They absolutely are. 1 goal, 5 points, 0 goals 4 points.

Matthews makes enough money that he should be expected to score no matter who's on his wing. A Céline Dion cutout would get 30 points next to McD or Crosby. Matthews makes the big bucks and is expected to produce at a high level at all times. He didn't. The "Marner dragged him down" excuse is absolute trash. I'm not even saying Marner didn't, I'm saying Matthews is supposed to be good enough where that shouldn't happen. But nobody is prepared to say he didn't get the job done either.

- UsernameUnknown


Matthews didn’t get the job done. Marner didn’t make him shoot over the net. Marner killed penalties. Matthews hit people. Neither did what they were paid to do.
Santo_44
Toronto Maple Leafs
Joined: 10.20.2014

Jun 22 @ 12:03 PM ET
I dont mind it. Willy with Matthews is fine too.
But I do like the idea of splitting Matthews/Marner up. That way if one goes cold, they don't both go cold.

- UsernameUnknown


We know JT/Marner works well.

AM can carry a line...Did it when he was 19.

Nylander can tear up 3rd line matchups.

Used to be how they beat teams a few years ago...attacking them with 3 lines. The top heavy lineup has done some damage as well but I'd like them to at least entertain that.
Canada Cup
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: This world is just a veil and the face you wear is not your own., ON
Joined: 07.06.2007

Jun 22 @ 12:05 PM ET
I dont mind it. Willy with Matthews is fine too.
But I do like the idea of splitting Matthews/Marner up. That way if one goes cold, they don't both go cold.

- UsernameUnknown


I agree. I think it forces them to change the way they play a bit too. Only works if they add some help up front though which they can’t do do if they go hunting for the most expensive D man on the market.
UsernameUnknown
Seattle Kraken
Location: Gotta' Catch Em All!
Joined: 03.25.2013

Jun 22 @ 12:05 PM ET
If I just watched the stat sheet, I would agree with you. Watching the games told a very different story. One player was engaged and trying to make a difference, the other wanted his mommy.
- joel878


Marner looked engaged, too. But also scared. I think Marner had or created more offensive opportunities than people are willing to admit. But he absolutely disappeared at times too.
Fakepartofme
Toronto Maple Leafs
Location: Living rent free... in your head, ON
Joined: 09.20.2010

Jun 22 @ 12:05 PM ET
I admittedly do not put much stock in his assist totals. It comes back to opportunity for me and the belief that a 4-5 million dollar winger is going to be capable of producing the same totals with that opportunity.

It's the proven drop-off from regular season to playoffs which speaks loudest for me. It may be acceptable at a lower dollar value, but at the 7th highest cap hit in the entire league it's not.

I also believe that 32 career playoff games is a decent enough sample period to know what we can expect going forward.

His output when it counts factored against cap hit is a hindrance and you have to spend your money better if you want to win a cup in this league 🤷🏻‍♂️

- joel878

Willie at 7m per, did not produce similar to marner when he was with Matthews and any left wing that plays with Matthews has not produced at the rate of Marner.
So that is flawed.
but he is overpaid...and like I said earlier, I dont care who's traded....just facking win in the playoffs.
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