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Forums :: Blog World :: Ryan Wilson: Finding a new goalie: Petr Mrazek
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Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jun 30 @ 9:03 PM ET
It's totally possible. I just remember reading multiple reports that he never would listen to the coaching staff in terms of what they told him to work on, putting in the time, etc.. That also could be related to the death of his dad, who knows. Death is a tough one. He may have lost all real motivation.

Rino^^

Imagine loosing your Dad and having to work an actual job where you can’t take weeks off because bills are due. F Murray. I never remembered another player taking more than a few days for the death of a family member.

- Grinder47


Take your meds.
MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

Jun 30 @ 9:23 PM ET

Imagine loosing your Dad and having to work an actual job where you can’t take weeks off because bills are due. F Murray. I never remembered another player taking more than a few days for the death of a family member.

- Grinder47


A bit of a rough take but you aren't entirely wrong.

I think his dad was just a part of it. I always got a sense that he was one of those guys that didn't really "love" hockey. He made himself a hell of a lot of money by being blessed with playing on those Pens teams.
TheGame316
Joined: 11.18.2008

Jun 30 @ 10:46 PM ET
Tampa in 5

This series is gonna suck
10inchTerror
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jun 30 @ 11:31 PM ET
Tampa in 5

This series is gonna suck

- TheGame316


Won’t suck as long as lightning win
Grinder47
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somerset, PA
Joined: 10.20.2013

Jul 1 @ 5:57 AM ET
A bit of a rough take but you aren't entirely wrong.

I think his dad was just a part of it. I always got a sense that he was one of those guys that didn't really "love" hockey. He made himself a hell of a lot of money by being blessed with playing on those Pens teams.

- MacPatty

Yeah. He’s a piece of poop.
Grinder47
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somerset, PA
Joined: 10.20.2013

Jul 1 @ 6:03 AM ET
Won’t suck as long as lightning win
- 10inchTerror

Why would anyone want the lightning to win is beyond me but ok.
TartanBill
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.16.2016

Jul 1 @ 7:05 AM ET
if we take sample size seriously, we can make a quick estimate of uncertainty in a goalie's save percentage. Modeled as a normal random number, the square root of goals estimates the standard deviation from the expected mean.
Example, 1600 shots, 90% SP, = 160 goals, sd=13.
13/1600 0.008, or a little under 1%.
That is, we can expect a typical goalie, with no real change, to bounce around within a +/- 0.01 and within a league there will be a few +/-0.02 outliers among the starters with a large(ish) sample.

This is a pretty fair representation the distribution of goalie stats, so the random chance in the measure is pretty substantial even over the course of a full season. Of course there are differences among goalies, and when it's this close there will be quality of team, quality of opponent, other effects

A technical analysis of the goalie is important to understand if a number is sustainable, but that is more subjective.

A corollary to this is that SP in a single game is almost meaningless. Of course it matters to the outcome, but it has little to do with the goalie.

The thing with Jarry wasn't the SP per se, it was that some of the goals were bad, and indicated technical flaws that you'd like to see gone by this stage.
TartanBill
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Joined: 04.16.2016

Jul 1 @ 7:13 AM ET
if we take sample size seriously, we can make a quick estimate of uncertainty in a goalie's save percentage. Modeled as a normal random number, the square root of goals estimates the standard deviation from the expected mean.
Example, 1600 shots, 90% SP, = 160 goals, sd=13.
13/1600 0.008, or a little under 1%.
That is, we can expect a typical goalie, with no real change, to bounce around within a +/- 0.01 and within a league there will be a few +/-0.02 outliers among the starters with a large(ish) sample. For example, MAF's recent season is a reasonable career best for an average goalie who put in 15 years or so. Note that he has <1000 saves, so the uncertainty is larger this year than most. .900 would not be out of range for a career worst. I'd expect a few years hovering around 0.905.

This model is a pretty fair representation the distribution of goalie stats, so the random chance in the measure is pretty substantial even over the course of a full season. Of course there are differences among goalies, and when it's this close there will be quality of team, quality of opponent, other effects

A technical analysis of the goalie is important to understand if a number is sustainable, but that is more subjective.

A corollary to this is that SP in a single game is almost meaningless. Of course it matters to the outcome, but it has little to do with the goalie.

The thing with Jarry wasn't the SP per se, it was that some of the goals were bad, and indicated technical flaws that you'd like to see gone by this stage.

- TartanBill

Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 1 @ 9:59 AM ET
Tampa in 5

This series is gonna suck

- TheGame316


After two games I think it's safe to say this is more likely at this point. Tampa is just rolling and Vas is outplaying Price.
MattStrat
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: ...serial abuser...and misuser...of the ellipsis , NF
Joined: 12.12.2014

Jul 1 @ 10:46 AM ET
After two games I think it's safe to say this is more likely at this point. Tampa is just rolling and Vas is outplaying Price.
- Rinosaur


At the 32 minute mark last night Tampa only had 8 shots.... Habs played a good game and a few very blatant mistakes cost them. None of the goals against are on Price IMO. He could of saved the 2nd one but it was a really fn hard save to make.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 1 @ 10:46 AM ET
This would mean they are doing the smart thing and trading Lehner.

I just can't believe they pull him again in the playoffs for Lehner and then they resign him to an extension. I don't know your source, but probably BS.

- MacPatty


I'm not claiming my source is super tight in the organization, but they're involved with the Knights and specifically with certain players. He's definitely not BS and that's not to say it's BS if what I said amounts to nothing, but it's just something he was told.

I used to know someone with the Pens and he was right from time to time, but he doesn't work for them anymore which sucks.
10inchTerror
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jul 1 @ 12:07 PM ET
Why would anyone want the lightning to win is beyond me but ok.
- Grinder47


Don’t care for or against the lightning. Can’t stand Montreal.
10inchTerror
Joined: 10.13.2019

Jul 1 @ 12:09 PM ET
Pretty cheap trade for arvidson. Looks like the kings are gonna try to be players this year.
668710
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: "Give him a chance" -Barnaby36, PA
Joined: 06.25.2011

Jul 1 @ 12:12 PM ET
Pretty cheap trade for arvidson. Looks like the kings are gonna try to be players this year.
- 10inchTerror

Does that mean th preds are gonna sell off more guys?
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 1 @ 12:13 PM ET
Does that mean th preds are gonna sell off more guys?
- 668710


Given the fact NSH needs offense, the idea they're trading a quality forward makes me think they're making a play for Hall.

Or maybe they were just worried they'd lose him for nothing in the draft.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jul 1 @ 12:19 PM ET
Pretty cheap trade for arvidson. Looks like the kings are gonna try to be players this year.
- 10inchTerror

Poile once again proving why he’s a bad GM.
kfinl170
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: NJ
Joined: 07.05.2010

Jul 1 @ 12:20 PM ET
Given the fact NSH needs offense, the idea they're trading a quality forward makes me think they're making a play for Hall.

Or maybe they just were worried they'd lose him for nothing in the draft.

- Rinosaur


Arvidson would have been a good get for us. Tough to play against, agitator with skill, seems like what we are missing/what would fit in Burke/Hextall plan. Thought a swap with Petterson could have made sense if they weren’t resigning Ekholm.
Grinder47
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somerset, PA
Joined: 10.20.2013

Jul 1 @ 12:20 PM ET
Joel Armia (spelling) was scratch some in these playoffs but was very noticeable physically and with the puck last night. Does he make a lot of money?
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jul 1 @ 12:21 PM ET
Given the fact NSH needs offense, the idea they're trading a quality forward makes me think they're making a play for Hall.

Or maybe they were just worried they'd lose him for nothing in the draft.

- Rinosaur

Hall contract to go with the Johansen, Duchene, and Turris deals.
kfinl170
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: NJ
Joined: 07.05.2010

Jul 1 @ 12:22 PM ET
Hall contract to go with the Johansen, Duchene, and Turris deals.
- Feds91Stammer


Thought the same thing.
Feds91Stammer
Detroit Red Wings
Location: "China was as proactive as possible" - Rinosaur, SC
Joined: 02.01.2012

Jul 1 @ 12:28 PM ET
Joel Armia (spelling) was scratch some in these playoffs but was very noticeable physically and with the puck last night. Does he make a lot of money?
- Grinder47

UFA that you don’t have the cap for because bums like Tanev make 3.5m
MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

Jul 1 @ 12:57 PM ET
Pretty cheap trade for arvidson. Looks like the kings are gonna try to be players this year.
- 10inchTerror


Two fold miss for the Pens...

1. Arvidsson would have been a nice pickup.
2. I thought we could get some picks from LA for Zucker.

Hopefully LA is still looking for another top 6/9 winger.
MacPatty
Pittsburgh Penguins
Joined: 05.21.2015

Jul 1 @ 12:58 PM ET
Hall contract to go with the Johansen, Duchene, and Turris deals.
- Feds91Stammer


Don't be surprised if these picks go into a package for Seattle to take one of Duchene or Johanssen.

On its own i don't understand this for Nashville as Arvidsson is very good and cheap. Are they going to keep selling?
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 1 @ 1:27 PM ET
Two fold miss for the Pens...

1. Arvidsson would have been a nice pickup.
2. I thought we could get some picks from LA for Zucker.

Hopefully LA is still looking for another top 6/9 winger.

- MacPatty


Hard for the Pens to make any moves before the draft considering their financial position and figuring out what players to protect.
Rinosaur
Pittsburgh Penguins
Location: Somewhere, NJ
Joined: 01.21.2016

Jul 1 @ 1:28 PM ET
Hall contract to go with the Johansen, Duchene, and Turris deals.
- Feds91Stammer


It would be par for the course. Something to the tune of 8/8 probably makes sense for Poile.
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