Let's talk about analytics, specifically relative stats and how different situations can affect the numbers. While if we look at a significant number of years through over six hundred players and all the players that have changed teams, it may very well be generally and statistically true that when a good player goes to a bad team from a good one, his relative possession stats tend to IMPROVE. Some however don't understand why you can't look at generalities statistically and need to look at the situation specifically. I can assure you that when making roster decisions, NHL GM's don't look at it from a general point of view but look at the specific situation.

Scenario#1
A legitimate 1st line level center players on a championship level team that has a stacked lineup where possession numbers are even though the top 9.That player is moved from that team to a poor team. Every team normally has at least a few quality offensive players. So the coach on that poor team, stacks the top line and plays them in all the best offensive situations in order to give them the best chance to compete. The disparity level of talent between the top line and the rest of the team is significant. What is going to happen to that players relative possession stats compared to when he was on the previous team?

Scenario #2.
A legit top 4 NHL defenseman is moved from a stacked championship team to a poor team. That defenseman is now tasked with taking on the majority of the tough defensive minutes against the opposition top line and is matched up with his teams checking line. What do you think is going to happen to that players relative possession numbers?


You can't look at generalities. You have to look at each player specifically and what the situation is.

If Giroux has a 70 point season which is possible, he's taking a discount?
- MJL

I think so. It depends on how many years into his playing years he wants to get paid. I think he wants to finish as a Flyer. Moving in on so many Flyer records. How big a discount maybe come down to how close he is to winning a cup and how much he contributes (not just point wise but everything he brings). I could be wrong. Matter of fact it is more likely I’m wrong then right around here. 😆

I wouldn’t call that getting destroyed.
- bird_dog_pa

Okay. What do you call it. I can call it destroyed. You can call it your adjective. But he hit the ice pretty hard out in open ice. He looked a little surprised and wide eyed when he got up. Pretty good hit.

I think so. It depends on how many years into his playing years he wants to get paid. I think he wants to finish as a Flyer. Moving in on so many Flyer records. How big a discount maybe come down to how close he is to winning a cup and how much he contributes (not just point wise but everything he brings). I could be wrong. Matter of fact it is more likely I’m wrong then right around here. 😆
- peesinwind

To be clear, I'm talking about a discount from what his market value will be at that point rather than his current contract.

Zibanejad looking for Eichel money.

Was nice knowing you Coots.
- Tomahawk

Exactly. I can’t believe these flyers fan that can’t it through their thick skulls.

WE ALL LOVE COOTS AND HIS GAME

JUST LIKE WE DID SIMMER

BUT NOONE IN THEIR RIGHT MIND IS GIVING A 30 YEAR OLD THAT HIGE CONTRSCT WITH TERM

OH WAIT ,SHARKS DID WITH KARLSSON

HOWS THAT LOOKING? ANYONE WANT TO BE IN THAT BOAT?

THANKS FOR THE MEMORIES COOTS WE WISJ YOU WELL

Yes, really first round and 2nd round picks have more potential to drive this team to being a contender than the moves he made recently. Here you go again, devaluing draft picks in order to justify the moves. Which I will remind you of the next time you criticize a team for doing the same.

What could possibly elevate this team to a Cup team would be if Hart rapidly escalates to becoming a top NHL goaltender. Or if a player like Frost or York turns out to be more than projected. Otherwise the most likely outcome is a team that is not good enough and now has aging players signed to high contracts that have declined such as Hayes, Ellis, Ristolainen and Atkinson.
- MJL

I’m very curious because as you clearly see that having some aging (not over the hill yet)vets (Hayes Ellis risto etc) do you still believe we should resign 30 year old coots? You seem to have changed your stance a little and realized this team isn’t cup contender which is 100% correct. Wouldn’t resigning coots long term big money put us in foreseeable purgatory? Are you now on the dark side? Trade coots for big return especially seeing the contracts being given out and what others are reported to be asking for. Knowing coots will be getting the same.

To be clear, I'm talking about a discount from what his market value will be at that point rather than his current contract.
- MJL

Well that’s fair. I think Chuck will want to sign him. He will need to sign Coots in my mind. He is going after a window now so bring those prices back is important.

I think the Flyers gave up quite a bit of potential success 4-5 years from now.
But they got the best players in each deal without gutting the farm.

With Ristolainen and Ellis the Flyers are going to be REALLY hard to play against next season. Way better than the Niskanen year.

Provorov is now arguably the #3 dman? If healthy and Hart plays well they will have home ice in the playoffs.

If you doubt Ristolainen's talents, just look at his EA 19 ratings
https://realsport101.com/...ings-roster-top-prospects

i'll be very disappointed if we do not keep coots. it will mean we essentially chose kevin hayes over couturier simply because we had to sign him because of nolan patrick missing time.

What will happen is the same thing that happened this year, Fletcher will make deals and open up space to sign the younger players. I mean no one thought Jake could be traded without giving up picks and prospects, but he was. No one thought Ghost could be traded unless we gave up a 1st round pick, but he was. I don't know about you, but I am getting older. It would be nice to see the Flyers actually win something before I fall off a cliff someday.

What many fail to see here is this all fallout from Hextall missing on his draft picks. If Hextall had drafted Makar like he was supposed to, it would be the Flyers who were signing him for 8 years instead of Colorado. But instead, its the Flyers trading top picks and players to fix their bad defense with good players. So it all comes back to one thing, you MUST hit on your draft picks, especially the higher ones if you want to contend for many years.
- jd250

I don’t think he was ever drafting makar. Some scouts were pounding the table for miro but hexy didn’t listen. But your point still valid miro or makar

Neither did I. I do t believe. Said I’m sure there’s videos of him being destroyed. But doesn’t really matter I guess
- Peter Richards

It was on the you tube caption

I have always liked Rittich. Should be affordable. About the same age as Lyon but has more NHL experience.

Rittich for backup goalie—thoughts?

i'll be very disappointed if we do not keep coots. it will mean we essentially chose kevin hayes over couturier simply because we had to sign him because of nolan patrick missing time.
- black_francis

only way ex selke doesnt resign is if he decides to test free agency.

These moves were made for him and CC. He has the Flyers by the balls really.

Okay. What do you call it. I can call it destroyed. You can call it your adjective. But he hit the ice pretty hard out in open ice. He looked a little surprised and wide eyed when he got up. Pretty good hit.
- peesinwind

I wouldn’t call a pretty good hit getting destroyed.
Getting destroyed is not getting up without having to collect yourself for a moment.
I’m not talking about players getting injured.

If he were to sign a deal with us at his age for 6 years - for a defenseman - is 32 really aging? C’mon
- black_francis

To be fair and what people seem to not consider for some reason risto played right away. He has almost 550 nhl games already in career. Hard minutes too. In 6 years assuming full seasons and healthy he will be at almost 1000 games. That is ALOT. Same kinda thing with coots. A lot of miles on those bodies.

Exactly. I can’t believe these flyers fan that can’t it through their thick skulls.

WE ALL LOVE COOTS AND HIS GAME

JUST LIKE WE DID SIMMER

BUT NOONE IN THEIR RIGHT MIND IS GIVING A 30 YEAR OLD THAT HIGE CONTRSCT WITH TERM

OH WAIT ,SHARKS DID WITH KARLSSON

HOWS THAT LOOKING? ANYONE WANT TO BE IN THAT BOAT?

THANKS FOR THE MEMORIES COOTS WE WISJ YOU WELL
- Stayin alive

I agree completely.

Get what you can for him NOW.

FWIW, my thoughts on the draft/trade

The Risto trade
Yeah, it’s not a great draft but I stil don’t like moving first round picks in deals for useful, but not game changing, players. Personally, I don’t hate Risto as much as the analytic junkies but I don’t like him as much as Bill seems to. One codicil, if he does end up walking than this deal will go down as a disaster and that makes me afraid that he will use that leverage to get a deal that costs too much over too many years.
The Voracek deal
Don’t love it, don’t hate it. Freeing up a little cap space ...
- BiggE

I see the tryout year with Risto as a big plus. I think Chuck gets an A+ for staying away from these long-term contracts at outrageous prices. I liked Jones and Dougie but not at those prices. If risto earns more than he's getting (which is already a lot for a number four), then wow, awesome, and if not, we are not trapped, and maybe can even get back a second round pick at the trade deadline.
To me that is the whole saving grace of the trade!
I love the Ellis trade flat out, and the size question is made up with Risto. And also with Ellis, ghost had to go. No need for another undersized d-man.
I like the Atkinson trade for the reason that Chuck said: the goal with him is to help solve slow starts. I don't expect him to put up big numbers, but the complacency of g and Jake in the first period was constantly heartbreaking.
You have to admit it, at least cam and Risto seem genuinely excited to play hockey and to play it in Philadelphia.

even if he is good, we need budgets on certain positions. you want your 2nd line Dman making 7M? I guess if we do that, we need some cheap salaries somewhere else.
- bradster

That’s what I was saying the other day. The trade doesn’t just black and white with giving up picks for risto. It’s how are you cap wise
Provy 6
Ellis 6
Risto 6? Resigned
Sandy 4? Resigned
York 2-3bridge?
Xxx 2
Almost 30 mil to the d corps. Almost 30% of cap. Add in everyone else without getting elite talent at 1c and whatnot. Is that good enough to win cup? I don’t think there’s a chance at all. Team better for sure. Maybe even win a round or 2. It seems fletch made moves with damn the future from bean counter mandate. You don’t win cups like that. I honestly thought when hexy took over and snider gave blessing to do full rebuild they finally got it. These moves show the exact opposite.

Well that’s fair. I think Chuck will want to sign him. He will need to sign Coots in my mind. He is going after a window now so bring those prices back is important.
- peesinwind

What window? If fletch thinks the moves he add are good enough to win cup he’s delusional. Keeping coots/g is the worst thing that can happen. And even if it were possible how big/long is that window open for? I wouldn’t give g more than 1-2 mil on yearly basis in extremely reduced 5 on 5 pp specialist role. He’s done as a major cog on team.

That’s what I was saying the other day. The trade doesn’t just black and white with giving up picks for risto. It’s how are you cap wise
Provy 6
Ellis 6
Risto 6? Resigned
Sandy 4? Resigned
York 2-3bridge?
Xxx 2
Almost 30 mil to the d corps. Almost 30% of cap. Add in everyone else without getting elite talent at 1c and whatnot. Is that good enough to win cup? I don’t think there’s a chance at all. Team better for sure. Maybe even win a round or 2. It seems fletch made moves with damn the future from bean counter mandate. You don’t win cups like that. I honestly thought when hexy took over and snider gave blessing to do full rebuild they finally got it. These moves show the exact opposite.
- Stayin alive

dont think risto will get 6 and they will move a LHD if zamula and york prove they are good players. Coule be provy....maybe for draft picks to make those few fans that love picks happy...imgagine getting a coupe #1s for provy and wiffing on those picks. Ah man that would be some good convos on here.

What window? If fletch thinks the moves he add are good enough to win cup he’s delusional. Keeping coots/g is the worst thing that can happen. And even if it were possible how big/long is that window open for? I wouldn’t give g more than 1-2 mil on yearly basis in extremely reduced 5 on 5 pp specialist role. He’s done as a major cog on team.
- Stayin alive

g for 1-2 mil....thats hilarious
who do you think is a comparable for him? you think G will be a 20 point guy?

What are the comps for this big extension amounts for Risto? Can’t forget the flat cap also. If he fits in, likes his role, does well as a #4 depth defenseman, he should make about what he does now or maybe a little more. So 5.5M AAV for 4 or 5 years. If the Flyers do really well and are truly on the upswing, I don’t think it is crazy to think he would stay for that.

dont think risto will get 6 and they will move a LHD if zamula and york prove they are good players. Coule be provy....maybe for draft picks to make those few fans that love picks happy...imgagine getting a coupe #1s for provy and wiffing on those picks. Ah man that would be some good convos on here.
- bradster

To play deveils advocate if you move provy who fills 1lhd? Sandy? York? It creates a hole either way. That’s why you need influx of high end cheap talent in cap world. And you need the picks to get that. That’s why you don’t just trade 1st 2nd 2nd because it breaks that influx over time. Again I get why they did it. They had to move the bad contracts. Again that’s why you don’t sign these 28-29-30 year old players to these deals. It’s a vicious cycle. In 2-3 years assuming we resign risto we’re gonna be in the same boat but instead of talking g/Jake/Jvr/ghost we will be talking Hayes/Ellis/risto/Atkinson. Coots god forbid if he’s stupidly resigned.

The names change but the game is the
same.

That’s what I was saying the other day. The trade doesn’t just black and white with giving up picks for risto. It’s how are you cap wise
Provy 6
Ellis 6
Risto 6? Resigned
Sandy 4? Resigned
York 2-3bridge?
Xxx 2
Almost 30 mil to the d corps. Almost 30% of cap. Add in everyone else without getting elite talent at 1c and whatnot. Is that good enough to win cup? I don’t think there’s a chance at all. Team better for sure. Maybe even win a round or 2. It seems fletch made moves with damn the future from bean counter mandate. You don’t win cups like that. I honestly thought when hexy took over and snider gave blessing to do full rebuild they finally got it. These moves show the exact opposite.
- Stayin alive

Top 4 d 22 million….ok. Add in some young guys like York, a vet like Braun….those numbers look eerily similar to the defending two time Stanley cup champs…. G’s cap hit will drop after this year and until Coot’s is signed we won’t know what he gets…it may depend on how this year goes. I think if you keep your top 4 d around 24 million then your in business….and I think the Flyers will be very close to that….besides by the time they get ready to resign York, the cap will be ready to again increase…(provided there’s no more world pandemics)

To play deveils advocate if you move provy who fills 1lhd? Sandy? York? It creates a hole either way. That’s why you need influx of high end cheap talent in cap world. And you need the picks to get that. That’s why you don’t just trade 1st 2nd 2nd because it breaks that influx over time. Again I get why they did it. They had to move the bad contracts. Again that’s why you don’t sign these 28-29-30 year old players to these deals. It’s a vicious cycle. In 2-3 years assuming we resign risto we’re gonna be in the same boat but instead of talking g/Jake/Jvr/ghost we will be talking Hayes/Ellis/risto/Atkinson. Coots god forbid if he’s stupidly resigned.

The names change but the game is the
same.
- Stayin alive

maybe we shoukd wait until the year starts before we worry about that. who knows how they progress. Just saying of they progress, someone will need to be moved sooner than later