The much older man in the white shirt is longtime Flyers defenseman Brad Marsh, who is nowadays the president of the Flyers Alumni Association.

Regarding Ristolainen, I am tossing out the whole 2020-21 season for him. He was off to a good start then had one of the most severe cases of Covid in the NHL: intense chest pains, shortness of breath, and a complete lack of energy. He eventually got back in the Sabres lineup but said yesterday that he didn't feel like himself the rest of the season. He's finally fully recovered.

Lastly, analytics aren't everything. Talk to the game's high-skill top of the lineup types. Most of them want a few couple, physical types in the lineup whether they play on the same line or not. Not talking about enforcers because that role is obsolete nowadays. Talking about guys who opponents detest playing against because they rough you up all night then taunt you.

Ristolainen is one of those. He is so damn big and strong. He is a good skater on top of it. Phil Myers has all those same tools but he isn't particularly mean. Ristolainen loves to hit to hurt, which isn't the same thing as hitting to injure. Ristolainen is also a good -- not great, but good-- offensive D although not a puck mover. These are not my descriptions. It comes from scouts and players.

There was a game early last season where Ristolainen physically beat the crap out of several Flyers players. He was also in their faces all night. One player commented off the record that he'd hate to play against Ristolainen in a playoff series.

So much in hockey success is all about the mix of players, and balancing off strengths and compensating for weaknesses. I suspect that a Sanheim/ Ristolainen pairing will make its share of mistakes. I also think the way Sanheim prolongs possessions up ice with the way he pinches, the aggressive physicality of Ristolainen and he fact that he is a better offensive zone threat than Myers (it takes Phil too long to release the puck at the NHL level) will help. So much about possession stats is about defensive gaps and neutral zone play.

There is also a lot that is subjective. You can have negative possession stats yet still have a positive night by other measures. Let's say, in 28 shifts, there are several where the team gets hemmed in with Ristolainen on the ice. He ends the night in the red possession wise. But he also got an assist off a rebound put-in of his shot, four credited hits (and a couple more uncredited ones that actually hurt more than the ones that made a big noise) and three blocks including one that erased a prime scoring chance.

I can guarantee you that Ristolainen will be happy with his night assuming the team won. His head coach will be happy with his night. His defensive coach will be pretty happy. But the segment of watchers who hyperfocus endlessly on the possessions stats will say the team won despite him.
- bmeltzer

Analytics are nothing more than a tool to measure how human beings perform. While useful, they are not the end “all be all”. Yes, it seems CF overpaid for Risto. However, the fact that many experienced and qualified hockey people (who’s livelihoods depend on their hockey decisions) highly value this player as well is telling. Chemistry, opportunity, position, usage, coaching, training, all have an impact. Perhaps some of the value in this trade is how it will impact Hart, knowing that people will pay a hefty price setting up shop on his crease now, as just one example. As the dust from this weekend settles and initial reactions (exacerbated by the excitement of the first round draft expectations), I find myself warming up to the overall picture.

Out were underachieving players with potential like NoPa and Meyers, players who lost the confidence of coaches and fans alike (see Ghost), and a core player who put up points but was seen by many fans as a guy who didn’t compete hard all the time in Jake. What was brought in are 2 RH defenseman who play a tough brand of hockey. Ellis is skill and a style bigger than his size, Risto a smooth skater who makes opponents pay a price in his zone and can add some second level offense, and Atkinson who is a skilled Swiss Army knife, can do it all well, and never takes a shift off. Yes we gave up potential in the 13th pick who is a man who’s future is purely speculative and years down the road. Certainly seems we are going to be much more fun to watch next year and harder the play against. And if these moves help our franchise goalie rebound from a horrible year, no analytics can measure the positive psychological impact there.
- mikeyo27

Yes…

Trading Coutourier NOW makes sense. And whatever return we get can grow with the vets like Giroux, Ellis & Atkinson.

P.S. Seriously, Bill is like 99.999999% on time with everything

Even when there is NOTHING going on.
- DrMidnite

So the Flyers trade youth and multiple high draft picks for players to win now and you say it now makes sense to trade Couturier?

- landros 2

I keep forgetting about the fact he had covid.

That’s certainly needs to be taken into account especially if it was that severe.

So the Flyers trade youth and multiple high draft picks for players to win now and you say it now makes sense to trade Couturier?

- MJL

I can’t even discuss that as serious. No to mention he’s probably your next captain.

What’s the 3C status look like right now? I’m assuming it’s Frost but with both him and Hayes coming off major injuries and not a lot of depth behind them center depth is about the biggest concern I have for the roster right now.

What’s the 3C status look like right now? I’m assuming it’s Frost but with both him and Hayes coming off major injuries and not a lot of depth behind them center depth is about the biggest concern I have for the roster right now.
- hereticpride

Give frost a shot. If he can’t handle it, Laughton unless I’m missing something.

What’s the 3C status look like right now? I’m assuming it’s Frost but with both him and Hayes coming off major injuries and not a lot of depth behind them center depth is about the biggest concern I have for the roster right now.
- hereticpride

Best option, if he can stay healthy, Frost …..and although he’s played well on the wing Scott Laughton….and then there Tanner Laczynski. He was up for a cup of coffee last year as well….at 24 he’s hopefully ready to take that next step.

Thanks Bill. When looking at the picture of Anastasia and reading your caption about her older brother, I missed the little guy and saw a much older man with the white shirt, and thought to myself: gee, that's really a LOT older brother. Then I squinted.

I will take however take issue with some of your claims, especially that Risto's stats suffer because of 1. bad team and 2. elite match-ups. 3. Nature of Zone starts

Those not interested in a detailed rebuttal, my apologies. You should just skip the rest of this post.

1. A good player on a bad team will have his relative possession stats worsen because he is on a bad team.: False

The opposite has been found to be true on average, and I have found references that this correction was made by Eric Tulsky (Philly native and Assistant GM of Canes) . It is a good player on a good (deep) team who is more likely to see his relative stats suffer.

The reasoning is very simple. Suppose Hedman replaces Provorov in our last year's team and we play Tampa (minus Hedman). Hedman goes up against the Point line. Sanheim goes against Ciirelli line. Whose possession stats will tend to be better? The answer is Hedman. B/c though Sanheim is facing inferior competition, he is also an inferior player. The drop in quality from Hedman to Sanheim is larger than the drop in quality from the Point line to the Cirelli line. Thus, it is Sanheim who is at an disadvantage. (Note, for the same reason, Cirelli will have higher possession stats than Point in this example, for the same reason).


- PT21

You are incorrect. How about a scenario where Sanheim instead of playing with the Flyers on a lesser team, now plays on TB and plays with the Point line. What happens to his stats. I bet you they get better. This is the correct scenario when looking at the possibility of Ristolainen improving. For something that you claim is so simple, you missed the boat.

2. If Risto's fellow defenders faced the kind of elite competition he did, they would have just as horrid stats too.: False

There are sites that divide up possession stats by quality of competition. It is true that Risto tends to face better competition. Unfortunately, the problem is this: its not like he hogs all the ice time against the good players. Others defenders on the Sabres play them too, just a little less, and when they do, their stats are much better than his. I illustrate below for this year, every other year the story is pretty much the same.



This chart was taken from here.
3. Zone starts and sheltering can really change possession stats. False

Apparently, about 60% of a player's starts are "on the fly", obviously when puck is exiting or outside own zone. Of the face-offs, many are in neutral zone, which is a wash. Over the course of a game, this may mean that a guy with a 60% d-zone start is actually only taking 2-3 more faceoffs in the d-zone compared to the O-zone. That turns out to be insignificant for possession stats.





(More about this point can be found here for the interested. )


- PT21

Every player starts more shifts on the fly than on faceoffs, so that point is mute. You failed to actually look at Ristolainen's usage and deployment. Just look at that chart. There is no way that all the defenseman on the Sabres, faced elite level competition. It's simply not possible. You failed to consider TOI. Teams don't deploy defenseman like that. You failed to account for the fact that weaker teams spend more time defending and less time with the puck. A huge factor in a players numbers.

In summary then, Bill, there does not seem to be much evidence at all that Risto's advanced stats are affected by his team, quality of competition, and zone start usage.

But even if what you say is true, and Riso will be much better if he is facing lesser competition, and more offensive zone starts, I have an observation:

I keep hearing Flyers are in "win now"mode. Never understood what exactly we are aiming to "win" in the now. Surely it cannot be the cup with a top 4 defender who needs such sheltering, can it?
- PT21

It's not difficult to understand that if you take a player and put him in a lesser role, with lesser responsibilities that his effectiveness can improve. It's not a guarantee but certainly a possibility. That if you surround a player with better linemates and play in better situations, that a player can improve.
Analytics have to be understood and used properly.

Can Chuck be able to get rid of JVR still? JVR should be easier than Jake...short term, shorter salary.

Bill Meltzer: Draft Weekend Notes, Quotes, and Transcripts
- bmeltzer

Bill do you know of any college or european free agent they may look to sign to fill in the gap of the traded draft picks? Any drafted players out there who may pull a Wyatt Kalynuk?

Do you see Risto siging and exr before the season? When/if he does what term do you think it will look like?

What’s the 3C status look like right now? I’m assuming it’s Frost but with both him and Hayes coming off major injuries and not a lot of depth behind them center depth is about the biggest concern I have for the roster right now.
- hereticpride

It doesn't need to be simply because they have Laughton who can be an effective 3rd line center.

Zibanejad looking for Eichel money.

Was nice knowing you Coots.

You know what? We just can't keep bringing the same players back year after year and expect different results. We had to make changes this year. The players that we've added are all what I would call high energy, competitive people.

How often have we talked about our slow starts over the past two, three years since I’ve been here and allegedly a lot longer than that? We need some juice. We need some energy. We need to change the mood in the room and the energy in the room. It’s nothing against the players that we had here before. It's about trying to create a new group, a new leadership group, new chemistry. All these guys we have acquired besides being good hockey players bring a lot of those qualities, bring a lot of experience, bring a lot of professionalism to our roster.
-Chuck Fletcher

This to me is the GM quote of the decade for this Flyers organization. Its a validation of what so many of us watched with our own eyes not just last year, but essentially for the last decade. The Flyers desperately need a change in chemistry just as much as they needed a change in toughness, speed and skill. Fletcher, you nailed it!!

This was probably one of the best weeks to be a Flyers fan that I can ever remember, only because its been so long since this team has won a cup. I'm a really happy ... no .... giddy Flyers fan today. This team is going to make some noise this coming season, and Fletcher is not even done yet!

Zibanejad looking for Eichel money.

Was nice knowing you Coots.
- Tomahawk

Well the GM went "all in" they will not let him walk now. So imo any leverage they may have even had is out the window. 8 years 8.8 plus.

Also wonder how Captain Comfortable is doing knowing his sidekick robin is gone.

average hockey sense
- bmeltzer

We're talking about a guy who literally forgot where he was on the ice, turned around and checked himself into boards.

He's a total bonehead. At the level of Jack Johnson and Luke Schenn.

hextall ruined your team and will do the sameto mine
- penguininnevada

No doubt, have fun waiting for those 4th round draft picks to develop ...

This to me is the GM quote of the decade for this Flyers organization. Its a validation of what so many of us watched with our own eyes not just last year, but essentially for the last decade. The Flyers desperately need a change in chemistry just as much as they needed a change in toughness, speed and skill. Fletcher, you nailed it!!

This was probably one of the best weeks to be a Flyers fan that I can ever remember, only because its been so long since this team has won a cup. I'm a really happy ... no .... giddy Flyers fan today. This team is going to make some noise this coming season, and Fletcher is not even done yet!
- jd250

What are you looking for? Are you looking for the team to be better now and more entertaining? I feel comfortable saying that your wish has been granted. Or are you looking for the team to be on the path to becoming a true Cup contender with a wide open window? More than likely, the recent moves damaged that hope more than they helped it.

Bill,
Fletch agrees we don't have a 3c. Then what was the Laughton signing?
I'm just really feeling he's on his way to Seattle.

1. A good player on a bad team will have his relative possession stats worsen because he is on a bad team.: False

The opposite has been found to be true on average, and I have found references that this correction was made by Eric Tulsky (Philly native and Assistant GM of Canes) . It is a good player on a good (deep) team who is more likely to see his relative stats suffer.
- PT21

Its too early in the morning for this, I have a popsicle headache already

Thanks Bill and I know your takes are impartial. As well, thanks for the balanced assessment of the RR trade. Puts it into context that many other teams offered the first to get him. Doesn’t seem like we overpaid that crazy then. It’s not like we offered that package but other teams were in the running with a 2023 4th rounder and Buffalo retaining 50 percent salary.
- Hextall271

It was really just a 1st this year and a 2nd in 2023 for RR. Fletcher insisted Hagg go the other way to make the salary cap work. I'm fine with this trade and what it costs, we have enough prospects coming up right now, and we still got 1st round talent in this draft with our 2nd round pick.

What are you looking for? Are you looking for the team to be better now and more entertaining? I feel comfortable saying that your wish has been granted. Or are you looking for the team to be on the path to becoming a true Cup contender with a wide open window? More than likely, the recent moves damaged that hope more than they helped it.
- MJL

Why cant you do both? Why does it have to be one or the other?

Today’s thread feels like a “Meg” episode of Family Guy.

It was really just a 1st this year and a 2nd in 2023 for RR. Fletcher insisted Hagg go the other way to make the salary cap work. I'm fine with this trade and what it costs, we have enough prospects coming up right now, and we still got 1st round talent in this draft with our 2nd round pick.
- jd250

No, it was really a 1st, a 2nd and Haag. Regardless of the reason why, it's still an asset given up in the trade.

The much older man in the white shirt is longtime Flyers defenseman Brad Marsh, who is nowadays the president of the Flyers Alumni Association.

Regarding Ristolainen, I am tossing out the whole 2020-21 season for him. He was off to a good start then had one of the most severe cases of Covid in the NHL: intense chest pains, shortness of breath, and a complete lack of energy. He eventually got back in the Sabres lineup but said yesterday that he didn't feel like himself the rest of the season. He's finally fully recovered.

Lastly, analytics aren't everything. Talk to the game's high-skill top of the lineup types. Most of them want a few couple, physical types in the lineup whether they play on the same line or not. Not talking about enforcers because that role is obsolete nowadays. Talking about guys who opponents detest playing against because they rough you up all night then taunt you.

Ristolainen is one of those. He is so damn big and strong. He is a good skater on top of it. Phil Myers has all those same tools but he isn't particularly mean. Ristolainen loves to hit to hurt, which isn't the same thing as hitting to injure. Ristolainen is also a good -- not great, but good-- offensive D although not a puck mover. These are not my descriptions. It comes from scouts and players.

There was a game early last season where Ristolainen physically beat the crap out of several Flyers players. He was also in their faces all night. One player commented off the record that he'd hate to play against Ristolainen in a playoff series.

So much in hockey success is all about the mix of players, and balancing off strengths and compensating for weaknesses. I suspect that a Sanheim/ Ristolainen pairing will make its share of mistakes. I also think the way Sanheim prolongs possessions up ice with the way he pinches, the aggressive physicality of Ristolainen and he fact that he is a better offensive zone threat than Myers (it takes Phil too long to release the puck at the NHL level) will help. So much about possession stats is about defensive gaps and neutral zone play.

There is also a lot that is subjective. You can have negative possession stats yet still have a positive night by other measures. Let's say, in 28 shifts, there are several where the team gets hemmed in with Ristolainen on the ice. He ends the night in the red possession wise. But he also got an assist off a rebound put-in of his shot, four credited hits (and a couple more uncredited ones that actually hurt more than the ones that made a big noise) and three blocks including one that erased a prime scoring chance.

I can guarantee you that Ristolainen will be happy with his night assuming the team won. His head coach will be happy with his night. His defensive coach will be pretty happy. But the segment of watchers who hyperfocus endlessly on the possessions stats will say the team won despite him.
- bmeltzer

Hey Bill, good morning.

Yeah, I am aware of the Covid situation. In fact there are other extenuating circumstances. He played on the 2nd pairing on the off side for many games (the left side). But I knew someone would bring that up, and that is why I pointed out that this season is not so anomalous in the graph I presented.

Many of the things you suggested, I completely take your word for their validity, but they are anecdotal, so difficult to refute.

But I will say something: Mackinnon says the hardest guy to play against is Danault, a technician rather than a hitter. A team like Tampa, that has meanness in its D corps, well that meanness of Cernak, Savard, Sergachev is a secondary skill. It is secondary to the fact that they are first foremost: good defenders.

The stats above, and my eye test: suggests that Risto is a physical, difficult to play against, BAD defenseman. In particular, every game I see him play, he gives up the neutral zone too easily. He angles towards the boards hoping to wedge the forward and is often beaten to the inside. His backward skating is poor. He can get confused when pressured in his zone and turns the puck over. He leaves his feet too early playing two-on-ones. I can make a few more arguments.

The reason I don't bring up my eye test issues, is because one's person's eye is another person's eyelid, so to speak. If someone says, no he doesn't, I can't really refute that with the eye test. Whereas those stats I presented earlier, may not be the entire picture, but that part of it which it is, well, we can't refute what they say:

Which is that Risto seems to be a rather bad defenseman, quite apart from his physicality and sandpaper.