It was really just a 1st this year and a 2nd in 2023 for RR. Fletcher insisted Hagg go the other way to make the salary cap work. I'm fine with this trade and what it costs, we have enough prospects coming up right now, and we still got 1st round talent in this draft with our 2nd round pick.
- jd250

Would have liked to see the GM get say a 5th rd pick back in both the Ghost and Risto deals. Even a 6th. Would the opposing GM really kill the deal over that ask?

Analytics are nothing more than a tool to measure how human beings perform. While useful, they are not the end “all be all”.
- mikeyo27

As I mentioned yesterday to you, hockey people use analytics as a tool, a valuable tool
- landros 2

Good points all especially regarding analytics. They are useful by you can’t use them solely to make team decisions.
- Hextall271

Gentlemen, good morning. Always a pleasure to shoot the breeze with you.

I will respond to Bill's post as well separately, but the three of you said more or less the same thing, so I will respond collectively, if you don't mind.

Yes, analytics are "not everything." Nothing is everything except reality. A raised level of PSA does not mean you have prostrate cancer. A rise in inflation does not mean a recession is coming. If your girlfriend doesn't answer your calls, it doesn't mean its over for sure. And so on.

But surely though, those facts mean something. Instead of focusing on what it is not, why not look at what it is?

After all, many things not visible to the eye in hockey can be captured by stats. Else, a guy like Eric Tulsa, a Ph.D in Chemistry from Berkeley with no hockey background, would not be the Assistant GM (and rumored to be the next GM) for the Canes. It would not be the case that possession stats like Fenwick would be more predictive of success than even regular season records (Both the Blues of 18-19 and the LA Kings of 11-12 were in the top 5). The surprising Habs team this year was #2 or #3.

If we agree that Risto's advanced stats mean something, tell me, what do they mean? Because they are outlandishly bad.

Eric Tulsa, a Ph.D
- PT21

Tulsky. And he used to be a Flyers blogger over on BSH!

Today’s thread is quickly becoming every episode of Big Bang Theory.

Can Chuck be able to get rid of JVR still? JVR should be easier than Jake...short term, shorter salary.
- ClutchFlyer

At this point I can't see Chuck needing or wanting to move JVR. I am sure there are several teams that would want JVR, given what we saw with other recent trades across the league. But at this point, I think JVR is on the team. CF has the cap space he needs now to sign a goalie, Morin, a PK depth forward (Coleman maybe?) and extend Hart and Sanheim. I would be surprised if there were any other major moves.

It doesn't need to be simply because they have Laughton who can be an effective 3rd line center.
- MJL

I actually agree about Laughton. The last couple years has proven, at least to me, that Laughton can be effective both sides of the ice and with the right linemates can thrive as a role player that teams need to win.

If the top 6 consist of Giroux, Farabee, Couturier, Atkinson, Hayes and Konecny then using Laughton on the 3rd with maybe JvR and Allison could be a useful line. If Frost shows that he can contribute then slotting Laughton with maybe Lindblom and NAK could be just as useful in other ways.

Give frost a shot. If he can’t handle it, Laughton unless I’m missing something.
- Hextall271

Frost, Laughton, Tanner.....would have been nice to have Noah C in the mix but alas.

Also very viable option is Claude drops to 3C and we redeploy the LW's

Its too early in the morning for this, I have a popsicle headache already
- jd250

To actually believe that a players numbers can't or won't be affected in a positive way by playing on a better team and in a different situation shows a fundamental lack of understanding of hockey analytics.

Tulsky. And he used to be a Flyers blogger over on BSH!
- Tomahawk

Thanks. Yes. And I didn't know that.

The article of his, which I found several references to, that relative Corsi of a good player actually does not fall with bad teammates but the other way around, was linked to a site called nhlnumbers.com. But the site doesn't exist any more. It redirects to puckpedia.

The much older man in the white shirt is longtime Flyers defenseman Brad Marsh, who is nowadays the president of the Flyers Alumni Association.

Regarding Ristolainen, I am tossing out the whole 2020-21 season for him. He was off to a good start then had one of the most severe cases of Covid in the NHL: intense chest pains, shortness of breath, and a complete lack of energy. He eventually got back in the Sabres lineup but said yesterday that he didn't feel like himself the rest of the season. He's finally fully recovered.

Lastly, analytics aren't everything. Talk to the game's high-skill top of the lineup types. Most of them want a few couple, physical types in the lineup whether they play on the same line or not. Not talking about enforcers because that role is obsolete nowadays. Talking about guys who opponents detest playing against because they rough you up all night then taunt you.

Ristolainen is one of those. He is so damn big and strong. He is a good skater on top of it. Phil Myers has all those same tools but he isn't particularly mean. Ristolainen loves to hit to hurt, which isn't the same thing as hitting to injure. Ristolainen is also a good -- not great, but good-- offensive D although not a puck mover. These are not my descriptions. It comes from scouts and players.

There was a game early last season where Ristolainen physically beat the crap out of several Flyers players. He was also in their faces all night. One player commented off the record that he'd hate to play against Ristolainen in a playoff series.

So much in hockey success is all about the mix of players, and balancing off strengths and compensating for weaknesses. I suspect that a Sanheim/ Ristolainen pairing will make its share of mistakes. I also think the way Sanheim prolongs possessions up ice with the way he pinches, the aggressive physicality of Ristolainen and he fact that he is a better offensive zone threat than Myers (it takes Phil too long to release the puck at the NHL level) will help. So much about possession stats is about defensive gaps and neutral zone play.

There is also a lot that is subjective. You can have negative possession stats yet still have a positive night by other measures. Let's say, in 28 shifts, there are several where the team gets hemmed in with Ristolainen on the ice. He ends the night in the red possession wise. But he also got an assist off a rebound put-in of his shot, four credited hits (and a couple more uncredited ones that actually hurt more than the ones that made a big noise) and three blocks including one that erased a prime scoring chance.

I can guarantee you that Ristolainen will be happy with his night assuming the team won. His head coach will be happy with his night. His defensive coach will be pretty happy. But the segment of watchers who hyperfocus endlessly on the possessions stats will say the team won despite him.
- bmeltzer

Bill, you mention that the going price was always going to start as a first. Do you consider what the flyers gave up as an overpayment? I think that’s the main concern from some fans. I put it in the context of a weak draft, the fact that we’ve held on to most of our prospects and picks over recent years and the fact that the scouts are flying blind a bit this year.

What are you looking for? Are you looking for the team to be better now and more entertaining? I feel comfortable saying that your wish has been granted. Or are you looking for the team to be on the path to becoming a true Cup contender with a wide open window? More than likely, the recent moves damaged that hope more than they helped it.
- MJL

Sorry, I 1000% disagree with you on that latter point. CF just created a real window for this team to compete for the cup, similar to what Homer did back in 2007. I don't understand what he gave up that you think would damage their path to being a true contender?? What .. Myers? Hagg? The 13th pick?? Really?

CF just got rid of our worst players and replaced them with really good hockey players that can play for this team at a high level for another 3-5 years. That is the definition of a path to the Cup!

Thanks. Yes. And I didn't know that.

The article of his, which I found several references to, that relative Corsi of a good player actually does not fall with bad teammates but the other way around, was linked to a site called nhlnumbers.com. But the site doesn't exist. It redirects to puckpedia.
- PT21

His handle on BSH was Eric T. He used to be a regular contributor, wrote all kinds of stuff, pushing the frontier of hockey #'s. What a fun time that was before teams started buying everybody up to make things proprietary.

Imagine going from fan -> blogger -> analytics dude -> VP -> assistant GM of an NHL team.

Guy is brilliant, who knows, he could sit in the big seat for a team one day.

No, it was really a 1st, a 2nd and Haag. Regardless of the reason why, it's still an asset given up in the trade.
- MJL

How many times was Hagg healthy scratched last season by the worst defensive team in the league? Oh ya, he's an asset alright!

Bill, you mention that the going price was always going to start as a first. Do you consider what the flyers gave up as an overpayment? I think that’s the main concern from some fans. I put it in the context of a weak draft, the fact that we’ve held on to most of our prospects and picks over recent years and the fact that the scouts are flying blind a bit this year.
- Hextall271

What Bill described: hard to play against, will stick up for skill teammates, etc., seems to me to be frankly Maroon/Luke Schenn/Ryan Reaves/Gudas territory.

If he is so hard to play against, and has such an effect on the game, why is he getting lit up when he is on the ice?

The reason I don't bring up my eye test issues, is because one's person's eye is another person's eyelid, so to speak. If someone says, no he doesn't, I can't really refute that with the eye test. Whereas those stats I presented earlier, may not be the entire picture, but that part of it which it is, well, we can't refute what they say:

Which is that Risto seems to be a rather bad defenseman, quite apart from his physicality and sandpaper.
- PT21

Again, this shows a fundamental lack of understanding of hockey analytics. It's true, you can't refute what the numbers state. The numbers are the numbers. However you can certainly debate why the numbers are the way they are. It is a fundamental truth that analytics can only show you what happens on the ice when a player is on or off the ice. They can't by themselves tell you if a player is a good player or a bad player. That takes individual analysis of a player. The numbers are not capable of saying what you think they say. In terms of sample size, I would bet that you have not seen Ristolainen play enough for your "eye test" to be relevant. Same for me. I personally think they overpaid for the quality of player that he is. However I'm going to keep an open mind now that the trade has been made and see if in a hopefully improved situation, Ristolainen can improve.

Would have liked to see the GM get say a 5th rd pick back in both the Ghost and Risto deals. Even a 6th. Would the opposing GM really kill the deal over that ask?
- hello it's me 2050

True, it was weird to see the TSN draft tracker where under Arizona it was Ghost and picks and under the Flyers it said "nothing"

You think this will motivate Ghost this coming season after seeing that?

Gentlemen, good morning. Always a pleasure to shoot the breeze with you.

I will respond to Bill's post as well separately, but the three of you said more or less the same thing, so I will respond collectively, if you don't mind.

Yes, analytics are "not everything." Nothing is everything except reality. A raised level of PSA does not mean you have prostrate cancer. A rise in inflation does not mean a recession is coming. If your girlfriend doesn't answer your calls, it doesn't mean its over for sure. And so on.

But surely though, those facts mean something. Instead of focusing on what it is not, why not look at what it is?

After all, many things not visible to the eye in hockey can be captured by stats. Else, a guy like Eric Tulsa, a Ph.D in Chemistry from Berkeley with no hockey background, would not be the Assistant GM (and rumored to be the next GM) for the Canes. It would not be the case that possession stats like Fenwick would be more predictive of success than even regular season records (Both the Blues of 18-19 and the LA Kings of 11-12 were in the top 5). The surprising Habs team this year was #2 or #3.

If we agree that Risto's advanced stats mean something, tell me, what do they mean? Because they are outlandishly bad.
- PT21

You are very cordial today sir. Haha

I will say this, you are making a strong argument and your assessment may end up being correct. What i do know is that 2nd pair dmen don’t grow on trees. I’m not convinced this was an overpayment especially in view of factors bill states and that I’ve mentioned previously. I think this is worth the risk especially at 26 and having been rushed into the league by a bad team and franchise.

I still think he’ll play better if heathy, with proper matchups and limited minutes but he could come in, be worse than a 3rd pair echl dman and be traded at the deadline before ufa for a 7th.

His handle on BSH was Eric T. He used to be a regular contributor, wrote all kinds of stuff, pushing the frontier of hockey #'s. What a fun time that was before teams started buying everybody up to make things proprietary.

Imagine going from fan -> blogger -> analytics dude -> VP -> assistant GM of an NHL team.

Guy is brilliant, who knows, he could sit in the big seat for a team one day.
- Tomahawk

I read many places he is rumored to be the next GM. I dunno.

Btw, he has hired a woman, who was a Ph.D in Neuroscience from UCSF (A top university for anything medical related).

https://www.si.com/hockey...m-neuroscience-to-the-nhl

Gentlemen, good morning. Always a pleasure to shoot the breeze with you.

I will respond to Bill's post as well separately, but the three of you said more or less the same thing, so I will respond collectively, if you don't mind.

Yes, analytics are "not everything." Nothing is everything except reality. A raised level of PSA does not mean you have prostrate cancer. A rise in inflation does not mean a recession is coming. If your girlfriend doesn't answer your calls, it doesn't mean its over for sure. And so on.

But surely though, those facts mean something. Instead of focusing on what it is not, why not look at what it is?

After all, many things not visible to the eye in hockey can be captured by stats. Else, a guy like Eric Tulsa, a Ph.D in Chemistry from Berkeley with no hockey background, would not be the Assistant GM (and rumored to be the next GM) for the Canes. It would not be the case that possession stats like Fenwick would be more predictive of success than even regular season records (Both the Blues of 18-19 and the LA Kings of 11-12 were in the top 5). The surprising Habs team this year was #2 or #3.

If we agree that Risto's advanced stats mean something, tell me, what do they mean? Because they are outlandishly bad.
- PT21

Really? What makes you so sure none are a female?

Sorry, I 1000% disagree with you on that latter point. CF just created a real window for this team to compete for the cup, similar to what Homer did back in 2007. I don't understand what he gave up that you think would damage their path to being a true contender?? What .. Myers? Hagg? The 13th pick?? Really?

CF just got rid of our worst players and replaced them with really good hockey players that can play for this team at a high level for another 3-5 years. That is the definition of a path to the Cup!
- jd250

To me the biggest difference I see in this team from comparing the players they brought in and the players that left is...passion and compete. People can judge the skills of every player involved in the recent deals, but what it comes down to is how they compete on the ice. The only way we will know for sure is when they hit the ice in October (don't care about training camp).

I like the moves for the short term as the team seems to appear to be stronger on paper for next year. They have more guys who you can assume what you are going to get from and less that you dont know. Gave up on some young players, Myers..Hagg..who were bad last year like rest of team but solid year before. Paid the piper in the GHOST and Risto moves. Had to do something to change the locker room and love the Jake move. Giving up 1st..2nd..Myers..Hagg and even Patrick to a degree risky but have to give to get. At this point scary to be paying Risto 6.5M next year on new deal and if the dont resign him then they really lost big time on that deal. Short term better team..long term we will see

To actually believe that a players numbers can't or won't be affected in a positive way by playing on a better team and in a different situation shows a fundamental lack of understanding of hockey analytics.
- MJL

I thought Bill's and your responses were spot on. That was one thing that I noticed as well, PT21 is so caught up on the possession metric that he failed to see in the same chart that RR had played the most minutes on the Buffalo defense. For a player who supposedly stinks, he seemed to play an awful lot of hockey last year, even with his Covid issues. RR is a good player and he is exactly what this Flyers backend needed!

You are very cordial today sir. Haha

I will say this, you are making a strong argument and your assessment may end up being correct. What i do know is that 2nd pair dmen don’t grow on trees. I’m not convinced this was an overpayment especially in view of factors bill states and that I’ve mentioned previously. I think this is worth the risk especially at 26 and having been rushed into the league by a bad team and franchise.

I still think he’ll play better if heathy, with proper matchups and limited minutes but he could come in, be worse than a 3rd pair echl dman and be traded at the deadline before ufa for a 7th.
- Hextall271

I am trying nowadays. Not easy in these parts.

Re Risto: Price was bloody stiff though!!

Sorry, I 1000% disagree with you on that latter point. CF just created a real window for this team to compete for the cup, similar to what Homer did back in 2007. I don't understand what he gave up that you think would damage their path to being a true contender?? What .. Myers? Hagg? The 13th pick?? Really?

CF just got rid of our worst players and replaced them with really good hockey players that can play for this team at a high level for another 3-5 years. That is the definition of a path to the Cup!
- jd250

Gave up 4 roster players and replaced them with 3. It really crushed the future. Closed the window some. Another example of overvaluing draft picks.

What Bill described: hard to play against, will stick up for skill teammates, etc., seems to me to be frankly Maroon/Luke Schenn/Ryan Reaves/Gudas territory.

If he is so hard to play against, and has such an effect on the game, why is he getting lit up when he is on the ice?
- PT21

It’s possible that playing in that losing atmosphere that he’s tried to do too much. Go for the big hit instead of playing position etc. I think that aspect can be taught. Take the hit when it’s there but don’t run around like crazy. It’s a balance for sure but as dmen mature they tend to play a smarter game. If he can be physical and smart, then he can prob be effective.