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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Draft Weekend Notes, Quotes, and Transcripts
Author Message
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jul 25 @ 9:39 AM ET
Pretty much the exact list I have. Would like a signing between 1.5-2.5m at most.

Dubnyk (35)
Raanta (32)
Reimer (33)
Bernier (32)
Rittich (28)
Halák (36)
Brossoit (28)


- Glak18[Outside the price range for Flyers]

Grubauer (29)
Andersen (31)
Ulmark (27)

Would also like a depth defenseman signing like Hakanpää (RHD) (29).


Brossoit is the most competent "bang for your buck" from this list IMO.

I think you'll pay more for somebody like Halak or Raanta. Dubnyk is probably the last goalie out of those listed that I want. If we sign Dubnyk (we will) we need good health and a solid 55+ games out of Hart or we're (frank)ed.
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 25 @ 9:39 AM ET
If Risto is playing against lesser competition with better line mates, why is it impossible for his stats to improve?
- ClaudeFather


Nothing in the future is impossible. What I was saying, and what those stats say, is that when you have a good player on a bad team, the good player may well have bad possession stats by himself, but the good player doesn't usually have bad stats relative to his teammates., as Risto did That is far likelier to happen with a good player on a GOOD team*.

If you read my original post, I have the example of Hedman playing for us against Tampa to suggest why that was.

(By possession stats, I am talking about Corsi/Fenwick really)

EDIT: * By the way, Malkin is apparently a classic example of this phenomenon. Good player on good team (5 years ago) with negative relative stats.
bradster
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 12.18.2009

Jul 25 @ 9:39 AM ET
If Risto is playing against lesser competition with better line mates, why is it impossible for his stats to improve?
- ClaudeFather


because math
Bob Habib
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.01.2020

Jul 25 @ 9:41 AM ET
Seeing how other team all had to offer their first+ for risto makes me not as upset as I initially was. I still would have really liked Chaz Lucius on this team but a top 4 RH dman is a solid addition regardless.
After hearing chick explain his reasons for his grades I feel very confident that he made some solid moves.
Chuck had his finger on the pulse of this team 2 seasons ago and he damn near took this group to glory had the pandemic not ruined that season.
I always hate losing a 1st Rd pick but it's the price to pay to upgrade your team
I am cautiously optimistic about this upcoming season. The fact chuck brought in high energy players to help correct our continuously horrid slow starts gives me hope. All in all this team is pretty solid up and down the line up, minus a solid 3C and back up goalie
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jul 25 @ 9:41 AM ET
Brossoit is the most competent "bang for your buck" from this list IMO.

I think you'll pay more for somebody like Halak or Raanta. Dubnyk is probably the last goalie out of those listed that I want. If we sign Dubnyk (we will) we need good health and a solid 55+ games out of Hart or we're (frank)ed.

- mochoson


I agree, he played great with Winnipeg is number 1 on my list as well, but would he come to the Flyers or does he want the starting job handed to him?
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 25 @ 9:42 AM ET
Did you guys notice that G called out Sam on Twitter about his confirming that G would remain captain?

Sam responded. Wow. There’s certainly animosity between some members of the press and some of the team.

- Hextall271

Lmao, that’s gold . Good for G
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 25 @ 9:43 AM ET
Did you guys notice that G called out Sam on Twitter about his confirming that G would remain captain?

Sam responded. Wow. There’s certainly animosity between some members of the press and some of the team.

- Hextall271


link?
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 25 @ 9:44 AM ET
Nothing in the future is impossible. What I was saying, and what those stats say, is that when you have a good player on a bad team, the good player may well have bad possession stats by himself, but the good player doesn't usually have bad stats relative to his teammates., as Risto did That is far likelier to happen with a good player on a GOOD team*.

If you read my original post, I have the example of Hedman playing for us against Tampa to suggest why that was.

(By possession stats, I am talking about Corsi/Fenwick really)

EDIT: * By the way, Malkin is apparently a classic example of this phenomenon. Good player on good team (5 years ago) with negative relative stats.

- PT21

false
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jul 25 @ 9:45 AM ET
Seeing how other team all had to offer their first+ for risto makes me not as upset as I initially was. I still would have really liked Chaz Lucius on this team but a top 4 RH dman is a solid addition regardless.
After hearing chick explain his reasons for his grades I feel very confident that he made some solid moves.
Chuck had his finger on the pulse of this team 2 seasons ago and he damn near took this group to glory had the pandemic not ruined that season.
I always hate losing a 1st Rd pick but it's the price to pay to upgrade your team
I am cautiously optimistic about this upcoming season. The fact chuck brought in high energy players to help correct our continuously horrid slow starts gives me hope. All in all this team is pretty solid up and down the line up, minus a solid 3C and back up goalie

- Bob Habib


This is how I am justifying the Risto trade:

The cost of Risto was a 1st round pick, whether people like it or not.

The Flyers get to improve their top 4 depth and add a little more physicality and puck movement to it.

Now if the Flyers didn't make the move then they could be looking for a rental at the TDL which is basically giving up a 1st, so instead they give up a 2nd and Hagg to have that rental all year.

That's how I'm twisting it and sticking with it.
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jul 25 @ 9:46 AM ET
link?
- hello it's me 2050


https://twitter.com/Broad.../1419279336440573956?s=20
PT21
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: 木糠布丁, PA
Joined: 03.04.2008

Jul 25 @ 9:48 AM ET
false
- hello it's me 2050


No u r!
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jul 25 @ 9:48 AM ET
Gentlemen, good morning. Always a pleasure to shoot the breeze with you.

I will respond to Bill's post as well separately, but the three of you said more or less the same thing, so I will respond collectively, if you don't mind.

Yes, analytics are "not everything." Nothing is everything except reality. A raised level of PSA does not mean you have prostrate cancer. A rise in inflation does not mean a recession is coming. If your girlfriend doesn't answer your calls, it doesn't mean its over for sure. And so on.

But surely though, those facts mean something. Instead of focusing on what it is not, why not look at what it is?

After all, many things not visible to the eye in hockey can be captured by stats. Else, a guy like Eric Tulsa, a Ph.D in Chemistry from Berkeley with no hockey background, would not be the Assistant GM (and rumored to be the next GM) for the Canes. It would not be the case that possession stats like Fenwick would be more predictive of success than even regular season records (Both the Blues of 18-19 and the LA Kings of 11-12 were in the top 5). The surprising Habs team this year was #2 or #3.

If we agree that Risto's advanced stats mean something, tell me, what do they mean? Because they are outlandishly bad.

- PT21



Well 7 experts in the field were at least willing to part with a 1rst round pick…so maybe it’s not us that needs to re evaluate what analytics actually are and how they are used. If Risto is so bad how could these guys all be wrong ? Then again there are those 2 journalism majors that appear to have it all figured out.
dubc55
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.25.2014

Jul 25 @ 9:49 AM ET
What really happened Bill? Like Chuck Norris, you don't sleep.
peesinwind
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: columbia, MD
Joined: 06.27.2015

Jul 25 @ 9:50 AM ET
I like the moves for the short term as the team seems to appear to be stronger on paper for next year. They have more guys who you can assume what you are going to get from and less that you dont know. Gave up on some young players, Myers..Hagg..who were bad last year like rest of team but solid year before. Paid the piper in the GHOST and Risto moves. Had to do something to change the locker room and love the Jake move. Giving up 1st..2nd..Myers..Hagg and even Patrick to a degree risky but have to give to get. At this point scary to be paying Risto 6.5M next year on new deal and if the dont resign him then they really lost big time on that deal. Short term better team..long term we will see
- hfc355


I know you were thinking it but didn’t mention the best player we got. Ellipsis a really good player. He alone has move the needle the most. Ristolainen can help round out the D. The Flyers’ defense is seriously upgraded.

Provy - Ellis
Sanheim - Ristolainen
York/Morin - Braun

That has potential. That is the best D they have iced since Pronger was here.

Atkinson is just a better well rounded player then Jake. No doubt in my mind that Jake has more offense to his game but outside of scoring goals Atkinson brings hustle and defense that Jake didn’t tap into enough.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jul 25 @ 9:50 AM ET
I am trying nowadays. Not easy in these parts.

Re Risto: Price was bloody stiff though!!

- PT21



The stiff price I agree with.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 25 @ 9:50 AM ET
https://twitter.com/Broad.../1419279336440573956?s=20
- Glak18


Captain Comfortable got upset. What a shame. Lame response by the leader. Really put him in his place.
Phillywhiteout
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: West Chester, PA
Joined: 08.11.2020

Jul 25 @ 9:53 AM ET
Have to admit that I had no confidence in Chucky going into this off season, but I like what he has done so far! Probably overpaid some for Risto, but overall I like the changes. He got rid of three soft players(Patrick, Ghost and Voracek) and brought in 3 guys that have character and some talent to go along with it. These changes have been long overdue!! Thanks!
bird_dog_pa
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 07.05.2011

Jul 25 @ 9:54 AM ET
An important point we should all remember when armchair GMing is CF stating you can’t keep bringing the same guys back and expecting different results.
Even in the 19-20 playoffs the flyers got outplayed badly in many of those games.
To be fair I think we won’t know if this off-seasons moves were successful until we see the team play and gets a chance to gel.
I am not a fan of trading 1st round picks but I understand the reasoning.
If the flyers are successful I don’t think it will be much of an issue to resign Risto at a fair price.
Really the only area where the team got older is with Ellis. JV, Atkinson is basically a wash. Risto is what 1-2 years older than Myers?
If York makes the team he is younger than Ghost and Haag so I’ll consider that a wash.
With everything having played out the way it has so far this week I’m cautiously optimistic.

Ftown19125
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 09.17.2013

Jul 25 @ 9:54 AM ET
Captain Comfortable got upset. What a shame. Lame response by the leader. Really put him in his place.
- hello it's me 2050


Lol yeah. He seemed extremely upset.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jul 25 @ 9:55 AM ET
Pretty much the exact list I have. Would like a signing between 1.5-2.5m at most.

Dubnyk (35)
Raanta (32)
Reimer (33)
Bernier (32)
Rittich (28)
Halák (36)
Brossoit (28)


- Glak18[Outside the price range for Flyers]

Grubauer (29)
Andersen (31)
Ulmark (27)

Would also like a depth defenseman signing like Hakanpää (RHD) (29).



What about Holtby with 2 million retained by VNC.?
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 25 @ 9:55 AM ET
Captain Comfortable got upset. What a shame. Lame response by the leader. Really put him in his place.
- hello it's me 2050

Not surprised that’s what you got from that
Glak18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: "It's pretty big loogie on my face, so I was pretty psssted".", PA
Joined: 06.26.2007

Jul 25 @ 9:57 AM ET
Captain Comfortable got upset. What a shame. Lame response by the leader. Really put him in his place.
- hello it's me 2050


I'm not sure of the complete backstory, and there definitely has to be one, but stepping into Giroux's shoes he is probably thinking "Thanks Captain Obvious".
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 25 @ 9:58 AM ET
Lol yeah. He seemed extremely upset.
- Ftown19125

His response says it all. If not upset why even bother responding to a lowly beat writer? I get it Captain Comfortable is your hero.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 25 @ 9:58 AM ET
An important point we should all remember when armchair GMing is CF stating you can’t keep bringing the same guys back and expecting different results.
Even in the 19-20 playoffs the flyers got outplayed badly in many of those games.
To be fair I think we won’t know if this off-seasons moves were successful until we see the team play and gets a chance to gel.
I am not a fan of trading 1st round picks but I understand the reasoning.
If the flyers are successful I don’t think it will be much of an issue to resign Risto at a fair price.
Really the only area where the team got older is with Ellis. JV, Atkinson is basically a wash. Risto is what 1-2 years older than Myers?
If York makes the team he is younger than Ghost and Haag so I’ll consider that a wash.
With everything having played out the way it has so far this week I’m cautiously optimistic.

- bird_dog_pa

Yea it’s got to play out. Folks wanted a top RH D and a culture change, you got it. This team was in dire need of some change, hopefully this wakes folks up and let’s them know to get their crap together. The Risto trade has some serious risk if he walks or is signed to a huge deal but I’m willing to see how things go.
Ftown19125
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 09.17.2013

Jul 25 @ 9:58 AM ET
I'm not sure of the complete backstory, and there definitely has to be one, but stepping into Giroux's shoes he is probably thinking "Thanks Captain Obvious".
- Glak18


I think you mean “captain comfortable.”
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