@FriedgeHNIC

TOR has indicated it is protecting its remaining cap space — approximately $3.5M — for a forward, likely a winger for the top six. Could be someone remaining in free agency, or from another team needing cap relief. We will see where this goes. Stay tuned.


Strome's a great winger, Dubas!!

Ofc but most models factor in data relative to teammates to counteract this. Jones was the only top-4 d-men in the Columbus has saw his numbers fall two years in a row to such extreme in most models, for example - Werenski and Savard saw some small decline year-over-year but not like Jones. That doesn't change of scenery can't be beneficial - different players fit systems differently.

Personally don't think the Hawks' current system will necessarily bring the best out in any defender, much less one looking to rebound, but that's another discussion lol.
- L_B_R

We agree on that last part. I imagine we'll have a new coach by the 7th or 8th game if the goal is to win and not develop this year.

IF he stays healthy, he's going to be really really good
- BetweenTheDots

I don’t see it but I hope you’re right for his (Boqvist) sake.

The models that chart is based on actually already predicts Jones will be better than last year - just not back to his very best. The normal minor decline was there (like 0.1 GSVA which is normal) but it never was saying he's fall off a cliff which was really the point of contention imo.

It'll def be interesting to see if the model (or more than cause almost all had similar trends for him) under predicted the possible jump back up. It's possible - it's about historical data and probability, but it's not a guarantee. Let's hope the Hawks are good at projections of that magnitude. Idk if it's possible to hit his contract value but he could still be good for the team if the bump is higher than predicted.
- L_B_R

Enjoyed your work here LBR and as you might guess I knew your conclusions before I read the articles. Jones' fancies suck and in some models you show he's pathetic in the TWO percentile. No way around it in the fancy stat world the dude is a near bum........ Regardless good reads IMO.

This is not the defenseman you’re looking for: https://www.secondcityhoc...reactions-reports-updates

The Seth Jones deal is worse than expected: https://www.secondcityhoc...ist-columbus-blue-jackets

Right...but Boqvist has been on the active roster for two years so in essence since Jones was a 1st round pick, we swapped 2021 picks and only gave up the 2022 pick....we gave up one 1st round pick
- NamedSources

Question should be, "would Boqvist bring a first round pick back today on his own?"

Boqvist was on close to PPG pace when he came back from COVID. The whole team was manhandled by Vegas. Every one of them
- Elbows15

He had 4 assists in 9 games when he went out with Covid, 12 points in 26 games after. I really liked Boqvist and don’t like the Jones contract, but he was far from a point per game!!

You know as well as I that draft picks are crucial regardless of how the team is being constructed today. And for what it’s worth, I have yet to see a hockey team that didn’t build primarily through the draft become successful.
- paulr

Agreed but can't say it's working for Buffalo, Edmonton or Phoenix.

Curious LBR, do you get involved in prospect evaluations and if so how do you find the availability of fancy stats for these kids at the Jr level? ..... I know there are some from just listening to pregame interviews with a few coaches. They'll mention entry/exit numbers as well as corsi and shot shares.

Are fancies available to you and is there availability improving?

So Pius Suter signed with the Wings, 2 years at $3.25 million. I can't blame the kid for wanting to get paid but I can see why the Hawks passed.
- DarthKane

Call it the "Wings Premium"

IF he stays healthy, he's going to be really really good
- BetweenTheDots

Really, really good as in Drew Doughty, Charlie McAvoy, John Carlson, Jacob Chykrun?

Or more like Cody Ceci or Henri Jokiharju?

The reaction always makes me smile when Stanbo trades a young player. OMG his stats are improving, he may have given away the next Bobby Orr or Brian Leetch.

Its a very disturbing trend of Bowman not having patience with his own players. Is the Suter the crucial piece to making a serious contender? Prolly not, but he is a useful player and Stevie Y found him useful enough to give 2 years on a decent contract.

Can't keep getting rid of useful players to chase someone you liked years ago
- Elbows15

That says all you need to say.

Agreed but can't say it's working for Buffalo, Edmonton or Phoenix.
- rpeters01

It worked for Chicago, LA, Boston and Tampa. Show me one winning team team that built their core through trades and free agency. I know one.

I wonder how much longer these euro keep signing with the hawks??

Kahun, Kampf,Suter,Panarian(Russia) dont last most have been traded I’m sure I missed some as well.
- Abadseed

I said yesterday you have to look at their track records with other teams not only Chicago and I have no clue what that is?

Theo say fleury says I'm not playing for the hawks then what is next then?
- Scott1977

If Fleury is a no go in Chicago, then find another goalie in free agency using part of the $7M that gets freed up. The main consideration is Fleury's cap hit would only be for one season versus another goalie brought in will likely have more term but also likely to not cost as much per year.

It worked for Chicago, LA, Boston and Tampa. Show me one winning team team that built their core through trades and free agency. I know one.
- paulr

The Yankees.

Then the Hawks get Jarry back from Pittsburgh, Hawks then can develop 2 young goalies in Lankinen and Jarry.
- ChicagoHope

Not sure if Bowman is looking for a young goalie and is probably seeking one with more experience. Either way, trade Fleury to get a 1st rounder + whatever other asset(s) then get another goalie via free agency or another trade.

It worked for Chicago, LA, Boston and Tampa. Show me one winning team team that built their core through trades and free agency. I know one.
- paulr

See that list I left for you?

I agree but I think it’s fair to question the organizations ability to develop 1st round picks lately. Jury still out on some but man…..lots of misses and guys being dealt early.

I get draft position during the hey day….but it may be time to reevaluate hockey ops and scouts who are pushing for these guys. Hawks have done pretty well in later rounds which is nice but 1sts have to hit when you have and lately….not so much. Part of the reason I wasn’t bent out of shape to deal a few and if they do make the playoffs that Jones trade gets hopefully easier for others to absorb as that pick will be land in the high teens low 20s

If Fleury is a no go in Chicago, then find another goalie in free agency using part of the $7M that gets freed up. The main consideration is Fleury's cap hit would only be for one season versus another goalie brought in will likely have more term but also likely to not cost as much per year.
- Theo Fox

Devin dubynk seems likely. Don’t see the king coming where. Anyone else?

Really, really good as in Drew Doughty, Charlie McAvoy, John Carlson, Jacob Chykrun?

Or more like Cody Ceci or Henri Jokiharju?

The reaction always makes me smile when Stanbo trades a young player. OMG his stats are improving, he may have given away the next Bobby Orr or Brian Leetch.
- RickJ

No way around it, the fancies/charts show Boqvist on about the same path as a young Karlsson. ... I'm not knocking it just pointing it out. Of course Rundblad had very good fancies too, and my God that kid could not skate, a near ankle bender, so nothing is certain.

Some are attributing this "holdout" to his agent Allan Walsh and a perceived vendetta against the Hawks and generally being a hard-to-deal with agent but I also believe in what Fleury is saying in that he simply doesn't want to uproot his family who loves Vegas.
- Theo Fox

He should then retire. If 7 million is not worth it to him.

See that list I left for you?

I agree but I think it’s fair to question the organizations ability to develop 1st round picks lately. Jury still out on some but man…..lots of misses and guys being dealt early.

I get draft position during the hey day….but it may be time to reevaluate hockey ops and scouts who are pushing for these guys. Hawks have done pretty well in later rounds which is nice but 1sts have to hit when you have and lately….not so much. Part of the reason I wasn’t bent out of shape to deal a few and if they do make the playoffs that Jones trade gets hopefully easier for others to absorb as that pick will be land in the high teens low 20s
- SteveRain

I’ll go back and look for it. I usually don’t go back and read older posts especially when it gets heated here.

The biggest problem with Chicago I see are rushing young players into the NHL too early. Dach wasn’t a finished product in junior. Why on earth was he brought into th3 NHL as an 18 year old with the same deficiencies? Boqvist had most or all the skill to play in the NHL but one, the ability to avoid hits by bigger stronger opponents. Beaudin, Mitchell etc etc etc weren’t ready yet they were brought up. Yes some guys can make it as an 18 year old or with little or no minor league grooming, some had most of the skills and could make the jump. I think the problem was lack of development or commitment to developing players. There’s obviously no way to prove it but I think rushing young players doesn’t help anyone

I’ll go back and look for it. I usually don’t go back and read older posts especially when it gets heated here.

The biggest problem with Chicago I see are rushing young players into the NHL too early. Dach wasn’t a finished product in junior. Why on earth was he brought into th3 NHL as an 18 year old with the same deficiencies? Boqvist had most or all the skill to play in the NHL but one, the ability to avoid hits by bigger stronger opponents. Beaudin, Mitchell etc etc etc weren’t ready yet they were brought up. Yes some guys can make it as an 18 year old or with little or no minor league grooming, some had most of the skills and could make the jump. I think the problem was lack of development or commitment to developing players. There’s obviously no way to prove it but I think rushing young players doesn’t help anyone
- paulr

Wise man. I should try that.

I agree and I think when you have holes because you traded away previous assets you either sign veterans to band aid it (if you have cap room) or else you play kids earlier.

Hawks seemed to not have cap room and not have previous draft classes holding spots while younger kids progressed.

I don’t know…more I think about it more I think player development in ahl and draft classes is a fair thing to point as a substantial blemish on bowman s resume.

Google hawks 1st round picks. Check out Wikipedia list starting with toews. It’s rough.

He should then retire. If 7 million is not worth it to him.
- Diamondhands

The thing with Fleury is, That it could be 1 year in Chicago (or a half year then off to another new team), then he hits Free Agency and it's off to another location, all which requires him to be away from his family all year or pick up and move them multiple times

Does an extension with the Hawks with a NMC where he knows he'll be playing here for a few years convince him to report?

Or, Do the Hawks allow him to talk to other teams that may offer that extension, and the Hawks are compensated by that new team for their trouble (or some retention)

He's just in a spot where he could be in 4 cities within 12 months and it just isn't worth the hassle Vegas > Chicago > TDL Team > FA 2022

No way around it, the fancies/charts show Boqvist on about the same path as a young Karlsson. ... I'm not knocking it just pointing it out. Of course Rundblad had very good fancies too, and my God that kid could not skate, a near ankle bender, so nothing is certain.
- Mr Ricochet

A guy who I don’t have a whole lot of respect for, Brian Burke has an interesting take. Analytics don’t tell you if a guy is willing to put his face in front of a slap shot. His way of saying that analytics need to be backed up with your eyes, and vice versa. The great thing about analytics is enough data will show trends and is almost always accurate. The bad thing is analytics don’t allow for new team, teammates coaches etc that may affect the performance for a player. The other bad thing about analytics (for some people) is it’s hard to understand.

Because of that I’m willing to put analytics aside and see if a new environment allows Jones to buck the trend his stats show he’s on.

Some are attributing this "holdout" to his agent Allan Walsh and a perceived vendetta against the Hawks and generally being a hard-to-deal with agent but I also believe in what Fleury is saying in that he simply doesn't want to uproot his family who loves Vegas.
- Theo Fox

Weirdos