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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Free Agency Day 1: Flyers recap and analysis
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landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jul 29 @ 9:03 AM ET
Patrick's NHL rookie season at 19 was comparable to many players who've gone on to be impact players. It was fine. Not great, but nothing alarming. His development was flat in year two, though, which was a little concerning. Then the missed season and an awful season last year. He's a better player than THAT.

In hindsight, was Hexy wrong to overrule his scouts? Probably. While there was no specific consensus between Patrick, Heiskanen and Makar, apparently enough scouts to form a consensus would have advocated for either of the latter two (apparently with Heiskanen being the preference because Makar was a Junior-A player, which entailed more of a leap of faith). Ron felt differently, strongly wanting the big righthanded center who'd been the virtual unanimous No. 1 candidate leaguewide heading into 2016-17.

The concerns about Patrick, apart from injury, were as follows:

* His 2016-17 was not as good as his 2015-16 season. Not just statistically but in terms of consistency. Was it the sports hernia or had others bypassed him? Hischier was one who bypassed him on many lists. Others? That was up for debate. Keep in mind that Patrick is a late birthday player. Had he been born on Sept 15, 1998 and not Sept 19 of that year, he'd have been eligible for the 2016 Draft (and still would have been a lottery player, although not at the very top).

* A tendency in his Draft-eligible year to fall back too often on a perimeter game. That worked in the WHL because he was physically mature already and more gifted than his opponents. Many thought it was just the product of playing through the first sports hernia surgery. But he's shown the same thing for long stretches in the NHL.

* He didn't interview well at the Draft Combine. That's not make or break.

But I will add this, Pavel and you can't deny this is true: If the Flyers had gone for one of the D-men and that player had a meh start to his NHL career and Patrick had been the 30-goal, 60-point, two-way impact player that he was widely predicted to be, you'd be talking about how pathetic it was that "there was a slam-dunk impact player on the board that the Flyers didn't take due to an injury that's long since healed." You'd take glee in it, in fact.

- bmeltzer



Drafts are always an will always be judged in hind sight. As you pointed out there were enough red flags to sway Hextall’s decision…it just didn’t.
Shrike
Joined: 05.20.2016

Jul 29 @ 9:03 AM ET
Myers will never be particularly ornery on the ice -- not his personality -- and he'll never be a power play candidate in the NHL. His shot release isn't going to get markedly faster. His reads and decision making are spotty (as are Ristolainen's). I do think Myers can bounce back at least to the level he showed in 2019-20. He's absolutely an NHL defenseman but I don't think he'll ever be a top 3.

Re: PP, I don't think Ristolainen will get near 40 points this year because Yandle and Ellis will most likely be the main PP guys. But we know he CAN do it, because he did it four straight years. Ristolainen is far from a perfect player. But he isn't garbage, either, and (analytics aside) he was a better player at ages 21-24 than Myers has been over of the same time period.

- bmeltzer

AV went with provy on the pp over Ghost. I don’t trust them to make logical decisions with regards to pp personnel.
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jul 29 @ 9:05 AM ET
Thompson was so awful in that Islanders playoff series. Getting hemmed in the defensive zone every time he stepped on the ice. Just ridiculous recycling this guy.
- PLindbergh31



I think the signing has AV written all over it….if the coach feels he can use this guy and he’s only an 800 k hit, then why not? As far as the Islanders series…every Flyer got hemmed in.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 29 @ 9:05 AM ET
Also keep in mind when discussing York. The GM is on the hot seat. Coaches as well. He needs results. So he isn't ready to roll the dice on an unknow at this point. Right or wrong that is how I see it.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 29 @ 9:07 AM ET
Literally zero.

He could have an average season and he's still likely getting 6-6.5mil. If he were to somehow set say, a new career high in points, it's going to be north of 7.

- mochoson

He has a great year he gets a raise obviously. Otherwise seeing what other dman got this time around in free agency I can see the same amount. Depends on the heath of the league and how the cap looks.
wcorvette
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Boynton Beach, FL
Joined: 10.03.2010

Jul 29 @ 9:07 AM ET
I think Thompson may be the opening night 4C. I'd be disappointed if he's that all season. I personally think Laczynski is NHL ready. He just has to be healthier than he was last season. Laczynski is an older prospect.

Zero problem with York, at 20, getting more AHL time. He held his own overall in his three NHL games last season and you could see flashes of the traits that have scouts excited about him. But he certainly didn't scream out "pencil me into the NHL starting lineup right away." If it takes two months, half a season, even a full year, so be it. Yandle is a placeholder for the time being.

In terms of young players having good camps and winning spots, who expected Twarynski or Bunnaman to win opening night roster spots two seasons ago? But they both played so well in camp that they earned it. Neither sustained it once the regular season began, but yes, there is a threshold where a young player can win a spot out of camp. Farabee only spent a couple games with the Phantoms before he came up the first time.

Now, if it's close, does AV go with the vet? Probably. But you can say that of the majority of NHL coaches. So would Lavy or Quenneville, just to name two.

- bmeltzer


Thanks Bill
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jul 29 @ 9:10 AM ET
I'll tell you, I really like Fletcher. I like his logic, demeanor and availability. I was not a fan of the Martin Jones signing, but after hearing the reasoning behind the signing from Fletcher, I think it was a good move. The Flyers have a lot of key players that will need new contracts next season (unless they are traded before then), including Couturier, Farabee and Giroux. Thus the Flyers were not able to compete for FAs where other teams were offering multi year deals. I mean Ullmark would have been a great signing, but he got 4 years at $5M from Boston, and the Flyers just could not compete with that. So much for the flat-salary cap impacting contracts!
- jd250



I like Fletcher’s off season…it’s like he has breathed some life back into this corpse of a team. I can’t say there’s one guy they got rid of that I’ll miss. Potential is a wonderful thing, but it doesn’t win hockey games. You can’t run an NHL team on potential alone…eventually results matter…like after 7 years.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 29 @ 9:10 AM ET
Bill are Allison and Tanner recovering from injuries? Will both be ready by training camp if they are?
landros 2
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Centre of universe
Joined: 02.07.2007

Jul 29 @ 9:12 AM ET
Also keep in mind when discussing York. The GM is on the hot seat. Coaches as well. He needs results. So he isn't ready to roll the dice on an unknow at this point. Right or wrong that is how I see it.
- hello it's me 2050



And he should be on the hot seat….results matter. People talk about culture…funny when teams win nobody ever questions culture.
corduroy
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: “How many times is she gonna ask this f'n question?”, NT
Joined: 12.09.2006

Jul 29 @ 9:12 AM ET
I questioned his hockey IQ last year and got laughed at in here...how times have changed
- ClaudeFather


That is not why people laughed at you...
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jul 29 @ 9:13 AM ET
Who do we like as our AHL starter/3rd string/Lyon replacement?

I'm assuming Ersson and one of Ustimenko/Sandstrom are in the ECHL. If I had to guess, I'd say Sandstrom is the backup/1b on the Phantoms with Ustimenko coming off an injury.

I honestly don't see much out there.

Michael Houser
Magnus Hogberg
Antoine Bibeau
Louise Domingue
John Gillies
Charlie Lindgren
Philippe Desrosiers

Veini Vehvilainen

I like the bolded names. Desrosiers probably my first choice.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 29 @ 9:15 AM ET
That is not why people laughed at you...
- corduroy

Crickets
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 29 @ 9:25 AM ET
Who do we like as our AHL starter/3rd string/Lyon replacement?

I'm assuming Ersson and one of Ustimenko/Sandstrom are in the ECHL. If I had to guess, I'd say Sandstrom is the backup/1b on the Phantoms with Ustimenko coming off an injury.

I honestly don't see much out there.

Michael Houser
Magnus Hogberg
Antoine Bibeau
Louise Domingue
John Gillies
Charlie Lindgren
Philippe Desrosiers

Veini Vehvilainen

I like the bolded names. Desrosiers probably my first choice.

- mochoson

Ersson and Sandtsrum in the AHL imo
cdearth23
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Wilkes-Barre, PA
Joined: 08.06.2015

Jul 29 @ 9:27 AM ET
Reading between the lines regarding UFA goalies, we couldn't spend more than the $2million as we have to sign Hart and Sanheim. That put Holtby and Jones as our targets. All the others signed for much higher. We felt much more comfortable with Jones as an organization and went with him. Or, Holtby decided on Dallas and we were left with Jones. I had heard that Holtby wants a starter's role (who doesn't) and Dallas crease seems crowded. Makes me think we went with Jones due to those in our organ-I-zation being familiar with him.

Just my two cents.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jul 29 @ 9:28 AM ET
Ersson and Sandtsrum in the AHL imo
- hello it's me 2050


I will all but guarantee you that doesn't happen. Flyers will absolutely add a vet.
Peter Richards
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 29 @ 9:31 AM ET
Once a player makes it to the NHL, the fact that he was never drafted is irrelevant. That he didn't receive an offer from Calgary is also irrelevant. Your comment that a lot of people didn't get to see him play doesn't make sense. Myers played 71 NHL games before last season. Where were the reports of questionable hockey sense then? Where were the reports of his questionable hockey sense from his AHL time? Your comment that I'm looking at this with my Flyers glasses on is stupid.
- MJL


Lol of course cause it’s not your opinion. The reasons of what I posted are all relevant. Ahl is not the same league as the nhl, weakness do not get exposed the same. But I would question why he wasn’t drafted or signed by Calgary. Do you know these reasons? Without seeing him play how could we critic?
therabbi
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
Joined: 10.14.2020

Jul 29 @ 9:32 AM ET
I think your looking at this with your flyers glasses. Wasn’t drafted. Didn’t receive and offer from Calgary when he went to their camp. Yes he improved but this is due to his pure athleticism. Yes his hockey sense is in question. A lot of us didn’t get to see him play before. So how could we know.
- Peter Richards

I, for one, was looking at Myers for a while through Keith Jones' eyes as he kept touting him as a potential all star, and he was breaking up plays initially with his stick and long reach. Took me a while to see that without Jones' hype, there wasn't a lot more there. Y'all who keep talking about potential seem to be implying he's four years younger than he really is.
The Ellis trade was awesome.
Peter Richards
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 29 @ 9:33 AM ET
Nothing by excuses. Nashville also has whiffed on several dman over the years. In 2 years he will be a stud. Just give him time right?
- hello it's me 2050


A couple more years and ghost will turn the corner. He may be trending……lol.
Peter Richards
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 29 @ 9:35 AM ET
With 8.01 left, the Flyers are going to be hard pressed to have any cap space available during the season.

Even if Sanheim and Hart come in on the low side, say 4 for TS, and 3 for Hart, that leaves us with very little cap space as a cushion.

It makes me wonder if they have another minor trade in the works to get some wiggle room.

Chuck has surprised me numerous times resigning players like Provorov, Konecny etc to deals that weren't as high as expected, so hopefully he will be able to do it again with TS and Hart.

- MBFlyerfan


Sanhiem. 2 years 4 mil.
Hart 2 years 2.5.

Leaves 1.5 open
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 29 @ 9:35 AM ET
I will all but guarantee you that doesn't happen. Flyers will absolutely add a vet.
- mochoson

Probably. I wouldn't as those 3 need to play. Unless one is loaned out to a Euro club.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jul 29 @ 9:37 AM ET
I, for one, was looking at Myers for a while through Keith Jones' eyes as he kept touting him as a potential all star, and he was breaking up plays initially with his stick and long reach. Took me a while to see that without Jones' hype, there wasn't a lot more there. Y'all who keep talking about potential seem to be implying he's four years younger than he really is.
The Ellis trade was awesome.

- therabbi


Can't disagree about the trade but Myers is absolutely still developing.

He's played just over 100 NHL games. You need ~300 NHL games before you can really judge a player.

The ultimate case study of this is Zdeno Chara.

EDIT: No, I DIDN'T just imply Myers will eventually win a Norris.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 29 @ 9:38 AM ET
Reading between the lines regarding UFA goalies, we couldn't spend more than the $2million as we have to sign Hart and Sanheim. That put Holtby and Jones as our targets. All the others signed for much higher. We felt much more comfortable with Jones as an organization and went with him. Or, Holtby decided on Dallas and we were left with Jones. I had heard that Holtby wants a starter's role (who doesn't) and Dallas crease seems crowded. Makes me think we went with Jones due to those in our organ-I-zation being familiar with him.

Just my two cents.

- cdearth23

Sure they could have by not signing Nate. The probably didn't want to upset Hart and bring in someone who will push him for the starters job. That would increase his sports psychologist sessions and maybe the Flyers benefits only cover so man visits.
mochoson
Atlanta Thrashers
Location: Josi is the most overrated player in the nhl. He isnt even close to a top ten. - James_Tanner, NJ
Joined: 02.28.2009

Jul 29 @ 9:42 AM ET
Probably. I wouldn't as those 3 need to play. Unless one is loaned out to a Euro club.
- hello it's me 2050


They will all get time. Remember, Ustimenko is coming off an injury and Ersson is coming to NA for the first time. Those two battling for playing time as a 1a/1b in Reading is the perfect place for them to start. Plenty of great NHL goalies have started in the ECHL. Jaroslav Halak is the example I always bring up when talking about this subject.

Sandstrom/Ustimenko are pretty close in their development but I think Sandstrom probably has the inside track on the Phantoms job with Ustimenko coming off an injury. My personal opinion is Ustimenko has the higher ceiling, but that's just me.




MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jul 29 @ 9:46 AM ET
Sanhiem. 2 years 4 mil.
Hart 2 years 2.5.

Leaves 1.5 open

- Peter Richards



I hope so. Even in that best case scenario its not much left.
hello it's me 2050
Location: AR
Joined: 05.14.2021

Jul 29 @ 9:47 AM ET
They will all get time. Remember, Ustimenko is coming off an injury and Ersson is coming to NA for the first time. Those two battling for playing time as a 1a/1b in Reading is the perfect place for them to start. Plenty of great NHL goalies have started in the ECHL. Jaroslav Halak is the example I always bring up when talking about this subject.

Sandstrom/Ustimenko are pretty close in their development but I think Sandstrom probably has the inside track on the Phantoms job with Ustimenko coming off an injury. My personal opinion is Ustimenko has the higher ceiling, but that's just me.

- mochoson

Unless he flat out stinks Ersson should be on the phantoms. Like his upside much better than the other 2.

So your plan is to play 2 of those 3 in Reading?
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