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Forums :: Blog World :: Theo Fox: Why Stop There?
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boilermaker100
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 06.23.2015

Jul 30 @ 11:20 AM ET
Good thoughts on this topic. There could have been a little foresight on management's part given the pandemic's impact on leagues worldwide at all levels. Yet, I think there was also a bit of not picking lanes either. Several factors to where they are heading now.
- Theo Fox


Maybe the plan all along was to retool on the fly.

After McD was let go, he was blamed for trying to extend the window by holding on to the core and tinkering around them. Then when he was let go many thought Stan, without his hands being tied, was going into full rebuild mode.

Now after I look at it, last year, the supposed 1st year of the true rebuild, was an outlier IMO, and the retool was delayed. Others have pointed out the covid implications which resulted in the younger players given an opportunity. Maybe another thing that contributed to the pause into getting back into contention, was the fact that Bowman knew about the condition of Toews and Seabrook after the bubble playoffs and knew way ahead of time they wouldn't be playing last year. Based on that he decided to write off last year and see what the kids had to offer.
wiz1901
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: DraftSite com, IL
Joined: 05.14.2008

Jul 30 @ 11:22 AM ET
LOL, I am chuckling how Pronman and Wheeler critique the draft picks (even though there was a huge disparity in the NHL scouting staff's preference to the critiques that had both of them dropping the prospects.

I stand with a final board that also had early players not taken until much later, but I am not gonna change my thinking, and say as Corey did, ...that.."... I like Nolan Allan. Picking him at No. 32 was rich for me, but he’s good and I think he will be a full-time NHL player." (but I guess NOT as good as all them defenders ya had above him on your draft lists, eh?

Except Corey, like me, you had Nolan Allen at
76. Montreal: Nolan Allan, LHD, Prince Albert-WHL on your final board.
I had him at #117, because I didn't see any of the things the hawks staff saw, and I saw hesitation, and bad reads when I watched, and certainly didn't think any NHL club was going to take him in the first round.




The Athletic consensus board had him at slot #70.


Wheeler did write:
Most likely to rise relative to my board
Fedor Svechkov
Daniil Chayka
Stanislav Svozil
Nolan Allan
Evan Nause
This sorta of cover your arse journalism that others might be correct (or not).


To me seeing Nolan Allen being selected at #32 makes me wish I saw the hawks draft list.
My thinking is that wanted another ( Chase )Stillman and probably thought he was gonna be there at #32.
But I find it intriguing that either their lists checked off 31 players BEFORE the Chicago selection, so it is still staggering that they see something there.
Most of us here said we defer to mark Kelley and I am going to di so again, but I sure hope the last three seasons Noah played were full of high end plays and evaluations that I missed in my views.

We do know he can hit pretty darn powerfully.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4VmFOJ_rV8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L282JAsk3Ag

This starts off showing his smarts and back peddle android gapsBefore 4 minutes he makes a bad upside pass...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Fij0p8y7Rw
6628
Joined: 08.24.2009

Jul 30 @ 11:24 AM ET
Cat 5’7, TJ 5’8, Kane 5’10 (not accurate, he’s 5’8-5’9 max) Teams would run these guys thru the glass.
- Assman22



People have been saying that for a decade. If I was coaching against them I'd have guys lighting them up. But three cups for Kane, a couple more for Johnson, and with Dcat being the sturdiest build of the three, proof is in the puddin. These guys can play.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jul 30 @ 11:38 AM ET
Johnson is a better skater (still), more creative offensive player, way better defensively. Are you basing this on Johnson playing 4th line center in Tampa, as opposed to Suter getting mostly top line center with the Hawks?
- LAHawk


I was being facetious

Johnson is head above shoulders better than Suter. And may be the best all around center Kame has played with - from Richards (small, slow), to glaciers in Handzus and Anisimov. Shaw, Bolland...small.

But 2x Cup winner Johnson (probably been hit/lined up once or twice in that time)...wouldnt work.

And none if those guys will be "run through the glass" - or they would have by now.
SaskHawkFan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: SK
Joined: 05.18.2014

Jul 30 @ 11:41 AM ET
LOL, I am chuckling how Pronman and Wheeler critique the draft picks (even though there was a huge disparity in the NHL scouting staff's preference to the critiques that had both of them dropping the prospects.

I stand with a final board that also had early players not taken until much later, but I am not gonna change my thinking, and say as Corey did, ...that.."... I like Nolan Allan. Picking him at No. 32 was rich for me, but he’s good and I think he will be a full-time NHL player." (but I guess nOT as good as all them defenders ya had above him on your draft lists, eh?

Except Corey, like me, you had Nolan Allen at
76. Montreal: Nolan Allan, LHD, Prince Albert-WHL on your final board.
I had him at #117, because I didn't see any of the things the hawks staff saw, and I saw hesitation, and bad reads when I watched, and certainly didn't think any NHL club was going to take him in the first round.




The Athletic consensus board had him at slot #70.


Wheeler did write:
Most likely to rise relative to my board
Fedor Svechkov
Daniil Chayka
Stanislav Svozil
Nolan Allan
Evan Nause
This sorta of cover your arse journalism that others might be correct (or not).


To me seeing Nolan Allen being selected at #32 makes me wish I saw the hawks draft list.
My thinking is that wanted another ( Chase )Stillman and probably thought he was gonna be there at #32.
But I find it intriguing that either their lists checked off 30 players BEFORE the Chicago selection, so it is still staggering that they see something there.
Most of us here said we defer to mark Kelley and I am going to di so again, but I sure hope the last three seasons Noah played were full of high end plays and evaluations that I missed in my views.

We do know he can hit pretty darn powerfully.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4VmFOJ_rV8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L282JAsk3Ag

This starts off showing his smarts and back peddle android gapsBefore 4 minutes he makes a bad upside pass...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Fij0p8y7Rw

- wiz1901



ill be watching him on his visits here in the winter. ill post reviews of his play.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Jul 30 @ 11:43 AM ET
I was being facetious

Johnson is head above shoulders better than Suter. And may be the best all around center Kame has played with - from Richards (small, slow), to glaciers in Handzus and Anisimov. Shaw, Bolland...small.

But 2x Cup winner Johnson (probably been hit/lined up once or twice in that time)...wouldnt work.

And none if those guys will be "run through the glass" - or they would have by now.

- PatShart


I would go


Kurashev-Toews (if healthy)-Kane
ADB-Strome-Kubalik (ADB and Strome have chemistry)
Dach-Borgstrom-Johnson (veteran to go with 2 kids)
Hagel-Khiara-whoever wins the lotto



Chunk
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Why did I move back here again?, IL
Joined: 11.06.2015

Jul 30 @ 11:48 AM ET
I would go


Kurashev-Toews (if healthy)-Kane
ADB-Strome-Kubalik (ADB and Strome have chemistry)
Dach-Borgstrom-Johnson (veteran to go with 2 kids)
Hagel-Khiara-whoever wins the lotto

- LAHawk


Only issue there is Kurashev shoots left. And he better learn to rip a one-timer better than he has.

Third line is interesting (3 centers).

4th line spot obviously gets filled by Carpenter.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Jul 30 @ 11:51 AM ET
"Just take a look at what Rick Hahn has done with the Sox. No, they haven’t win anything yet but it’s one plan and it seems to be on track."


My son had some dealings four years ago with the White Sox and Rick Hahn was in those meetings. My son was told by Hahn in 2017 that 18 and 19 they were not going to be very good. They would make some noise in 20, but watch out in 2021. So far so good. But the thing is they had to suck for a while to acquire the assets for that plan to work out. It's pretty much the same in hockey. But the current hawks brass doesn't have the stones to go through that process like Reinsdorf does. (kills me to say that).

- 6628

Hahn was able to trade his Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook's for sizable assets. That's 100% the difference it's not even close the two scenarios.
Assman22
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: San Francisco, CA
Joined: 04.13.2012

Jul 30 @ 11:52 AM ET
People have been saying that for a decade. If I was coaching against them I'd have guys lighting them up. But three cups for Kane, a couple more for Johnson, and with Dcat being the sturdiest build of the three, proof is in the puddin. These guys can play.
- 6628

Yes but we’re talking about having all 3 smurfs on the same line. Completely different.
gabriel
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: West Lafayette, IN
Joined: 02.02.2013

Jul 30 @ 11:54 AM ET
I'm not sure that with the Aldrich stuff out there that the Hawks would want the scrutiny that would come with promoting Crawford to head coach right now given his issues in the past.
- TheTrob


You're spot on with this. Timing is the key. What I'm hinting at is a clear cut default choice if the repeated flaws keep occurring non-stop. Maybe with a stable of horses instead of speedy smurfs, JC will actually have something to work with. I don't dislike JC at all. Trying his utmost. But, up to now, I don't have much confidence in him moving forward. I'd love to be forced to eat my own words on this one.
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Jul 30 @ 11:55 AM ET
Good thoughts on this topic. There could have been a little foresight on management's part given the pandemic's impact on leagues worldwide at all levels. Yet, I think there was also a bit of not picking lanes either. Several factors to where they are heading now.
- Theo Fox

Can't underestimate the cap space opened up by Seabrook and Shaw.
-Doh-
Location: VA
Joined: 10.05.2015

Jul 30 @ 12:08 PM ET
We can probably all agree that the current roster is better than the roster we had on opening night last year. If you do not remember take a look at the lineup on day 1 of last year. Yuk!!!!
https://www.hockey-refere...xscores/202101130TBL.html

Did Stan give up too much to get Seth Jones? Yes. That 1st round pick in 2022. Ouch!
Did he give Seth too much money? Yes. Maybe $1mil to $1.5mil too much.
Was the MAF an unnecessary gamble? To be determined.

Did we abandon the rebuild? Yes and no. The focus was on acquiring young assets that could be NHL ready for the 2023/24 season and creating cap space for the summer of 2023(after the Toews and Kane contracts were up). Giving up that 2022 first round pick in the Seth Jones deal really hurts. Next year's salary cap is going to be a bear. But the following year (summer of 2023) we only have a total of 4 players at $19.85 mil. In the summer of 2023 Johnson (will be 33 years old) at $5 mil, S. Jones (will be 29) at $9.5 mil, McCabe (will be 29) at $4 mil, and Stillman (will be 25) at $1.35 mil.

picks
2022 - 2nd, three 3rds, 4th, two 6th's, 7th
2023 - 1st, two 2nds, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th

It would be great if Stan could somehow acquire a 1st in 2022. Maybe combining some player and a pick in a package.

It should be interesting to see how the rest of this off season plays out. MAF, deHaan, Strome, Connolly, Carpenter, Shaw's contract.

Would it be worth giving up one of our 3rd round picks (from Toronto or Vegas - not Edmonton's which could turn into a 2nd round pick) in a package with Connolly to free up some cap space?

Because of the health questions of Toews, Nylander, and McCabe I do not really mind keeping Strome and deHaan at least through training camp. They are veterans and would not force us to bring up kids that should be in Rockford. Of course if you can move them for a decent return before then it would be ok too.
BMWChiFan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: St Louis, MO
Joined: 04.12.2016

Jul 30 @ 12:16 PM ET
Those faulting Stanbo for failing to pick a lane and stay with it aren't considering: 1) Keith suddenly wanting to leave, making the 1D slot and $5M+ cap space available to significantly upgrade to Seth; 2) the Hawks had the opportunity to see their young Dmen perform and found them lacking and/or needing further development; 3) the Hawks lack of size/grit/compete compared to Cup contenders was apparent, particularly when going head-to-head with TB, Fla and Canes; 4) the pandemic has changed fans' viewing habits, and the Wirtzes don't want to go back to the bad old days, so no time for long range rebuilds. I'm a huge Stanbo critic, but he's done a good job of changing the entire tenor of the franchise almost overnight. Furthermore, the Fleury signing was a brilliant no-risk move, in that the Hawks either get last year's Vezina winner in goal, or flip him to Pitt and retain some money in exchange for assets. IMO that is good use of cap space.
BMWChiFan
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: St Louis, MO
Joined: 04.12.2016

Jul 30 @ 12:21 PM ET
Theo, if the Hawks do end up having to flip Fleury to the Pens and were willing to retain 50% of his cap hit, what kind of draft choice do you think they could get? Don't forget, the Pens are also trying to make one last Cup run for Crosby, Letang and Malkin, they are desperately in need of a goalie, and Fleury is a very popular player in Pitsburgh.
Beaks99
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: West Chicago, IL
Joined: 02.17.2012

Jul 30 @ 12:24 PM ET
Hahn was able to trade his Kane, Toews, Keith and Seabrook's for sizable assets. That's 100% the difference it's not even close the two scenarios.
- rpeters01

100% agree and he has done a terrific job signing players to team friendly deals early which ultimately gives them a lot more value…

Stan complete opposite in terms of managing (weaponizing) assets…and how about Theo and Hoyer or Pace…all brutal
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Jul 30 @ 12:29 PM ET
100% agree and he has done a terrific job signing players to team friendly deals early which ultimately gives them a lot more value…

Stan complete opposite in terms of managing (weaponizing) assets…and how about Theo and Hoyer or Pace…all brutal

- Beaks99

Cubs players have an agent who won't sign early.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jul 30 @ 12:31 PM ET
So to give up essentially next years 1zt round pick as
Boqvist & Jones - both 1st rounders
They swapped this year (Hawks dropped 20 spaces)

Yet look at TDL deals...
Hawks got a 1st AND prospect for Ryan Hartman
TOR paid a 1st for 12 games of Foligno

The list goes on an on as who knows, maybe they can get one back later. Not like they are hard to get

And that first may turn out to be a 20th overall. So Jones wouldn't be "worth" that?
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Jul 30 @ 12:32 PM ET
Theo, if the Hawks do end up having to flip Fleury to the Pens and were willing to retain 50% of his cap hit, what kind of draft choice do you think they could get? Don't forget, the Pens are also trying to make one last Cup run for Crosby, Letang and Malkin, they are desperately in need of a goalie, and Fleury is a very popular player in Pitsburgh.
- BMWChiFan

I hope he says "go pound sand" for anything less than a first and let's trade some other guys we can both bury.
Mr Ricochet
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Joliet, IL
Joined: 04.19.2009

Jul 30 @ 12:34 PM ET
Upfront there is going to be some exciting competition to who us going to stick. Looking at the Vets in the team up front, can there be better? All able to contribute the next 3-4yrs. Zero need to add vets in that time (barring injury)
Toews, Kane, Johnson- all cup winners. Same with Connolly at 29 if he stays. Carpenter is the only other F at 30yrs old. Last year of deal.

Now the remaining players/future core are all around 24 and younger. The only 4 locks identified for future top 6 IMO (look at age, skill, salary/control) are Debrincat, Dach, Kurashev and Reichel. Everything else is up for grabs/playing for roles. The other 2 may not be on the roster yet.

Kubilak is entering an interesting year. He's probably not getting much more from CHI so does he want to be here or want to get paid? That'll more determine what group he goes with (keeper or leaver)

Gaudette, Hinostroza and Suter were all told the same thing. Who wants this $1mil? At their age and the group up front, those 3 (with Carpenter) are fillers and essentially TDL bait or sooner.

Hagel, Strome, Borgstrom, Entswhittle, Hardman, Nylander, etc are all going to be rotated around until they fit a roleon the ice AND financially. It's up to then tibfigure out where. Pk, PP, physical, 2 way, but thet better bring something to the table Some guys get moved based on agents wanting more money and ice time.

Think about the backend. The hope for Boqvist was to be a number 1. And they've sheltered him and he couldn't play 16min a game and stay healthy. Z was to be a physical, 26 yr old Dman on the PK. And the Mitchell the hopefully number 3 2way dman

Once Jones became available, he steps into what Boqvist was to be. Z immediately became expendable and McCabe out of nowhere slips into that role both physically, financially, age wise AND has spent years playing with Murphy and Jones. Not to mention an upgrade from Z. All leaders. All 27-28yrs old at the start of the season. 5-6yrs into their career right when Dmen begin to hit their stride.

So the trio of Boqvist-Mitchell-Beaduin is prob what the Hawks wanted Keith-Seabrook-Hjarllmarrson to be. And now Jones-McCabe-Murphy.

Yet the Hawks STILL have Mitchell and Beaudin. They can spend 3 more years in the AHL now until they hit this age and be ready. Until/unless they or their agents want out. So when they do get moved....its not always the GM.

But the core pieces of this team are starting to identify themselves and the competition on/off the ice looks much better today than before the Keihlth trade, set all this in motion.

- PatShart


Pat, this is a really helpful post and hits correctly on so many things but for clarity sake I highlighted just a couple I find will be really beneficial for the club.

In some recent blog you mentioned that Dmen Jones, Murphy and McCabe played jrs together. I did not realize that and looking it up indeed they were mates with the NTDP. https://www.eliteprospect...-team/2010-2011?tab=stats

Of course familiarity can never hurt but just that the 3 played for The Program and have a bond coming thru the ranks is probably a really good thing. I'd add these 3 aren't speed/skill types per say they are rugged no nonsense types and that shapes a team's identity on and off the ice.

And as you mention they are the Big 3 (core) of the defense. This is probably the first time Colliton can send 3 Dmen over the boards and have certainty of what he's going to get. Most understand how important that is but even for those who do it's probably underrated...... It means that's not a problem anymore, changes game planning not having to scheme to minimize a weakness and time can be spent on other things.

Really good point and catch that these 3 have a history playing on a roster built from a population of 330 million people.

The other excellent point you make is the competition for bottom 6 slots and that depending on chemistry and fit roles can be formulated to make lines that make a difference. I guess that's true any yr but this group could have three #1 picks and with guys like Hagel and Entwhistle who have shown promise at the NHL level..... Then add Johnson, who I think is going to be a really important piece in that he can play center at the NHL level, multiple cup winner, tough SOB played the Finals vs the Hawks with a broken wrist, can slot up and down the lineup and will accept a role be it op 6, bottom 6, wing or center. ........ And Kurashev too might be added to that mix.

The 3 new Dmen along with the bottom 6 possibilities gives a fan some realistic hope for next yr. Lotta ifs, enough holes and with Colliton in a position where he's asked to win for the first time, and Toews of course, lotta questions for sure. ...... If nothing else it shapes up as interesting, players are more realistically slotted and kids that belong in Rockford will be allowed that "luxury".

Really good and coherent post, Pat.
PatShart
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Vegas, NV
Joined: 06.25.2015

Jul 30 @ 12:35 PM ET
I would go


Kurashev-Toews (if healthy)-Kane
ADB-Strome-Kubalik (ADB and Strome have chemistry)
Dach-Borgstrom-Johnson (veteran to go with 2 kids)
Hagel-Khiara-whoever wins the lotto

- LAHawk


I'm a huge Kurashev fan. But wouldnt see harm with he and Riechel playing top, top minutes in Rockford as like 1 and 2 C. PP and PK time. Bring them up mid year if need be or they dominate there. Rather than wither if them fight for 3rd line minutes here

I'd rather they have the guys that cant get sent down stay up and fight for those minutes in the bottom 6
Scott1977
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: Yorkville, IL
Joined: 08.30.2012

Jul 30 @ 12:36 PM ET
Theo, if the Hawks do end up having to flip Fleury to the Pens and were willing to retain 50% of his cap hit, what kind of draft choice do you think they could get? Don't forget, the Pens are also trying to make one last Cup run for Crosby, Letang and Malkin, they are desperately in need of a goalie, and Fleury is a very popular player in Pitsburgh.
- BMWChiFan

Maybe a 2023 1st and jarry or a 2nd in 2022 and 2nd in 2023 jarry and prospect maybe someting along those lines then maybe move jarry to buffalo or san Jose. Or a third team get involved to eat money and get asset in return.
LAHawk
Chicago Blackhawks
Joined: 11.02.2017

Jul 30 @ 12:36 PM ET
I hope he says "go pound sand" for anything less than a first and let's trade some other guys we can both bury.
- rpeters01


I hope Bowman is telling Fleury's agent, and Hextall I acquired him to play for us and if he doesn't want to play, I am not giving him away to Pittsburgh, he can just retire
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Jul 30 @ 12:38 PM ET
I'm a huge Kurashev fan. But wouldnt see harm with he and Riechel playing top, top minutes in Rockford as like 1 and 2 C. PP and PK time. Bring them up mid year if need be or they dominate there. Rather than wither if them fight for 3rd line minutes here

I'd rather they have the guys that cant get sent down stay up and fight for those minutes in the bottom 6

- PatShart

I think the plan now appears to be "young guys will get the development time they need."
rpeters01
Season Ticket Holder
Joined: 07.09.2016

Jul 30 @ 12:39 PM ET
I hope Bowman is telling Fleury's agent, and Hextall I acquired him to play for us and if he doesn't want to play, I am not giving him away to Pittsburgh, he can just retire
- LAHawk

Chicago was not on his 10 team list if Fluery doesn't like it he can pound sand too.
Angotti
Season Ticket Holder
Chicago Blackhawks
Location: IL
Joined: 07.03.2019

Jul 30 @ 12:42 PM ET
I hope he says "go pound sand" for anything less than a first and let's trade some other guys we can both bury.
- rpeters01

Penguin fans expecting Hawks to retain 50% of Fleury’s cap hit and barely any assets coming back, because we didn’t t give up anything for him. There are three options, that’s it.
1. Fleury plays for Hawks
2. Fleury gets traded, Hawks retain 50%, Hawks get a #1 back, maybe Hawks add a sweetener, nothing special.
3. Fleury retires and Hawks get their $7M back.
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