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Forums :: Blog World :: Bill Meltzer: Quick Hits: Goalie Market, Armstrong, Hart and More
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jd250
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 01.12.2018

Jul 30 @ 10:40 AM ET
I don't think goal scoring is an issue either. The Flyers potentially have 4 players who have the capability to score 30 goals in a season. They have overall 7 forwards with the ability to score 20 or more goals. They also have a couple more that can score in the teens. Not to mention that they added more offensive fire power defensively in adding Ellis, Ristolainen and Yandle.
- MJL

Hmmm .. sounds like a team that can challenge for a Cup, eh? Oh right, there's the other side of the coin, team defense ...
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 30 @ 10:48 AM ET
Jesus. Maybe Morin gets more game than anticipated. He said we get to play the western teams so he can prove he’s one of the toughest. Guessing he had Reaves and Kassian in mind.
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 30 @ 10:56 AM ET
Jesus. Maybe Morin gets more game than anticipated. He said we get to play the western teams so he can prove he’s one of the toughest. Guessing he had Reaves and Kassian in mind.
- Peter Richards

100% , the way he put down Johnston I think he is going to give it to Reaves and I can’t wait.
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 30 @ 10:57 AM ET
Not worried about jones. Can’t be worse than what happened last year and our defense is much improved. Not like he got the Ilya contract.
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 30 @ 10:59 AM ET
100% , the way he put down Johnston I think he is going to give it to Reaves and I can’t wait.
- ClaudeFather


Can’t believe I forgot about that. Wilson was out for a couple of the caps games too. Rags just replaced smith as their tough guy and got someone to watch their kids.

And Johnston is a tough kid as well. Now I remember how quiet Martin was that game. Chirped more when morin wasn’t playing.
PLindbergh31
Location: NJ
Joined: 02.01.2008

Jul 30 @ 11:00 AM ET
We should just trade Morin to the Rags for a 3rd while they're still busy hoarding guys who can't play.



- Tomahawk


Flyers have been making a habit out of drafting players in the first round who can't play. Morin, Patrick, Rubstov, O'Brien... it goes on and on.
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 30 @ 11:04 AM ET
As I posted yesterday, the number 1 factor in a goalie's stats is the team defense in front of them. If any goalie is under siege game after game they will eventually crumble as we saw last year on the Flyers. I am very confident the overall team defense will be better because our forward group will be better and our defenseman will be much better, especially in slot coverage and winning more puck battles below the red line. As a result I expect there to be far fewer high danger shots against (rebounds and odd man rushes) and therefore our goalies will have much better numbers. Last year what dragged down the Save % for Hart, Elliott and Jones was their PK save %,which were atrocious. As we know the Flyers had once again the worst PK in the league last year, and again I expect this area to be much improved this coming season.
- jd250


Here's the problem with your entire premise:

The team allowed the 12th fewest shots per game in the league,
They allowed the 7th fewest shot attempts per game,
They allowed the 8th fewest scoring chances per game,
They ranked 13th in fewest high danger scoring chances allowed per game,
And their expected goals against placed them 11th-overall.

While the defense looked pretty bad at times and they were prone to giving up some backbreaking chances -- especially after just scoring a goal -- relative to the rest of the league they were actually kinda average. Maybe even a bit above. Might be hard to believe, but the #'s are plain as day.

Meanwhile team SV%, scoring chance SV%, and high danger SV% were all ranked...

DEAD (frank)ing LAST.


If Hart and Jones can't get the job this season, it won't matter who they have on the blueline... Seth Jones, Victor Hedman, Chris Pronger... they'll be near the bottom in goals against again. And goodbye playoffs.
BiggE
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: SELL THE DAMN TEAM!
Joined: 04.17.2012

Jul 30 @ 11:06 AM ET
Here's the problem with your entire premise:

The team allowed the 12th fewest shots per game in the league,
They allowed the 7th fewest shot attempts per game,
They allowed the 8th fewest scoring chances per game,
They ranked 13th in fewest high danger scoring chances allowed per game,
And their expected goals against placed them 11th-overall.

While the defense looked pretty bad at times and they were prone to giving up some backbreaking chances -- especially after just scoring a goal -- relative to the rest of the league they were actually kinda average. Maybe even a bit above. Might be hard to believe, but the #'s are plain as day.

Meanwhile team SV%, scoring chance SV%, and high danger SV% were all ranked?

DEAD (frank)ing LAST.


If Hart and Jones can't get the job this season, it won't matter who they have on the blueline... Seth Jones, Victor Hedman, Chris Pronger... they'll be near the bottom in goals against again. And goodbye playoffs.

- Tomahawk

Yup
Bad goaltending, which the Flyers got a lot of last year, killed this team.
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 30 @ 11:07 AM ET
Flyers have been making a habit out of drafting players in the first round who can't play. Morin, Patrick, Rubstov, O'Brien... it goes on and on.
- PLindbergh31


Guess they forgot their game plan with g coots tk fa bee provie sanhiem laught jvr
StepfordSam
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 02.06.2017

Jul 30 @ 11:10 AM ET
Jesus. Maybe Morin gets more game than anticipated. He said we get to play the western teams so he can prove he’s one of the toughest. Guessing he had Reaves and Kassian in mind.
- Peter Richards


It’s going to be awesome. Flyers are going to play a D man that can’t play to see who the toughest is.

Is he man enough to get the job done?
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 30 @ 11:11 AM ET
Here's the problem with your entire premise:

The team allowed the 12th fewest shots per game in the league,
They allowed the 7th fewest shot attempts per game,
They allowed the 8th fewest scoring chances per game,
They ranked 13th in fewest high danger scoring chances allowed per game,
And their expected goals against placed them 11th-overall.

While the defense looked pretty bad at times and they were prone to giving up some backbreaking chances -- especially after just scoring a goal -- relative to the rest of the league they were actually kinda average. Maybe even a bit above. Might be hard to believe, but the #'s are plain as day.

Meanwhile team SV%, scoring chance SV%, and high danger SV% were all ranked...

DEAD (frank)ing LAST.


If Hart and Jones can't get the job this season, it won't matter who they have on the blueline... Seth Jones, Victor Hedman, Chris Pronger... they'll be near the bottom in goals against again. And goodbye playoffs.

- Tomahawk


Statistics are helpful. But when the other teams are winning 3-0 in the first we are chasing games. Numbers never tell the whole story.
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 30 @ 11:16 AM ET
Statistics are helpful. But when the other teams are winning 3-0 in the first we are chasing games. Numbers never tell the whole story.
- Peter Richards


Well when your goalies can't stop a beach ball, you tend to fall behind early.
Bayareaflyer
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 10.10.2008

Jul 30 @ 11:17 AM ET
Did we sign Ritchie yet?
Bill Meltzer
Editor
Location: Philadelphia, PA
Joined: 07.13.2006

Jul 30 @ 11:18 AM ET
Here's the problem with your entire premise:

The team allowed the 12th fewest shots per game in the league,
They allowed the 7th fewest shot attempts per game,
They allowed the 8th fewest scoring chances per game,
They ranked 13th in fewest high danger scoring chances allowed per game,
And their expected goals against placed them 11th-overall.

While the defense looked pretty bad at times and they were prone to giving up some backbreaking chances -- especially after just scoring a goal -- relative to the rest of the league they were actually kinda average. Maybe even a bit above. Might be hard to believe, but the #'s are plain as day.

Meanwhile team SV%, scoring chance SV%, and high danger SV% were all ranked?

DEAD (frank)ing LAST.


If Hart and Jones can't get the job this season, it won't matter who they have on the blueline... Seth Jones, Victor Hedman, Chris Pronger... they'll be near the bottom in goals against again.

- Tomahawk


1) What's hidden in that:.major defensive breakdowns (most infamously, all five players on one side with one already leaving the zone, and the most backdoor goals against in the NHL). What happens is that goalies feel compelled to cheat to overcompensate and then are prone to short-side goals.

2) When the Flyers were 11-4-3, their team metrics were awful but they were outscoring their breakdowns. Thereafter, the metrics were a lot better but the GAA ballooned even higher and the offense dried up. Too many nights of chasing the game, and now the goalie play itself was a genuine issue, too. Hart actually started getting back on track but lost the final 3+ weeks to injury.

3) The PK, except for a 9-for-10 and 12-for-13 stretch, was atrocious all year. Too many passes through the box. Too many open forwards on the doorstep. Way too many failed clears. Goalie play wasn't good enough, either, but the PKers made their lives very tough. Watch video of the Flyers PK last season. It was a mess.


In 2019-20, the Flyers were the stingiest team in the NHL in terms of shots allowed. They finished 7th in GPG and GAA and 11th in PK. Goal is to play much more like that.
Peter Richards
Season Ticket Holder
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.24.2019

Jul 30 @ 11:18 AM ET
It’s going to be awesome. Flyers are going to play a D man that can’t play to see who the toughest is.

Is he man enough to get the job done?

- StepfordSam


I’ll just be happy to see someone who is willing to go to battle again. Don’t even mean fighting per see but toughness. Physicality. Seems like our aggressive players recently have all been smaller. Now even if we are losing Risto may be leveling people and Morin breaking jaws. We must protect this house. Glad it won’t just be tk stirring the pot or NAK the only hard hitter. Or our s men getting man handled in front of our net.
MBFlyerfan
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Be nice from now on, NJ
Joined: 03.17.2006

Jul 30 @ 11:32 AM ET
As I posted yesterday, the number 1 factor in a goalie's stats is the team defense in front of them. If any goalie is under siege game after game they will eventually crumble as we saw last year on the Flyers. I am very confident the overall team defense will be better because our forward group will be better and our defenseman will be much better, especially in slot coverage and winning more puck battles below the red line. As a result I expect there to be far fewer high danger shots against (rebounds and odd man rushes) and therefore our goalies will have much better numbers. Last year what dragged down the Save % for Hart, Elliott and Jones was their PK save %,which were atrocious. As we know the Flyers had once again the worst PK in the league last year, and again I expect this area to be much improved this coming season.
- jd250


The Athetic did a deep dive on Myers and his play. They posted about 10 different plays where he made a decision on a lack of effort that resulted in a goal.

However.

As much as they were bad decisions or soft plays, some of those plays would have been erased if the goalie had made a makeable save, in a few, an easy save.

It was like a cascade effect of bad things that happened over and over again. Bad decisions, bad coverages by other players.....


https://theathletic.com/2...-turned-into-a-step-back/

The last goal in this sequence...




1st and 3rd of this sequence....



Fletch was right, the way they lost the forward almost constantly tells me something about the Flyers coverage scheme that other teams saw and exploited. The coaching staff either never adjusted, or the players never executed....or both....


Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 30 @ 11:36 AM ET
1) What's hidden in that:.major defensive breakdowns (most infamously, all five players on one side with one already leaving the zone, and the most backdoor goals against in the NHL). What happens is that goalies feel compelled to cheat to overcompensate and then are prone to short-side goals.
- bmeltzer


Anecdotal tho. Every team experiences total breakdowns. Some more than others, and we saw a lot from the Flyers this season. But expected goals and the scoring chance data should capture most of that stuff.

2) When the Flyers were 11-4-3, their team metrics were awful but they were outscoring their breakdowns. Thereafter, the metrics were a lot better but the GAA ballooned even higher and the offense dried up. Too many nights of chasing the game, and now the goalie play itself was a genuine issue, too. Hart actually started getting back on track but lost the final 3+ weeks to injury.
- bmeltzer


Yeah, they gave up a whole heck of a lot more early on, which could have gotten the ball rolling on the decline in goaltending. But IIRC, Hart was actually pretty OK early on, seeing a lot of pucks. When the team started to right the ship defensively, the goaltending just dove off a cliff.

3) The PK, except for a 9-for-10 and 12-for-13 stretch, was atrocious all year. Too many passes through the box. Too many open forwards on the doorstep. Way too many failed clears. Goalie play wasn't good enough, either, but the PKers made their lives very tough. Watch video of the Flyers PK last season. It was a mess.
- bmeltzer


PK, I agree. They ranked low on high danger chances allowed there. Lot of back door, slam dunk goals. The relationship between team D and goaltending decline there was much more symbiotic.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 30 @ 11:44 AM ET
A lot of smallish/soft players who go through prolonged scoring droughts. I agree with you it isn't a good mix.
- PLindbergh31

You nailed it. Our issues have nothing to do with Reeves. We don’t have a top forward in our line up or an elite scorer. We’re going at it by comity again, which always equals Seesaw season.
Tomahawk
Ottawa Senators
Location: Driver's Seat: Mitch Marner bandwagon. Grab 'em by the Corsi.
Joined: 02.04.2009

Jul 30 @ 11:45 AM ET
The Athetic did a deep dive on Myers and his play. They posted about 10 different plays where he made a decision on a lack of effort that resulted in a goal.
- MBFlyerfan


Kid maintains a short gap, which is what you want, but that leaves him susceptible to great 1v1 moves. He's gotta get a better feel for who he can step up on, and who he should just try to contain. That Wilson toe drag tho... lol.

But yeah... some pretty embarrassing goalie play on most of those goals.
Bob Habib
Philadelphia Flyers
Joined: 08.01.2020

Jul 30 @ 11:50 AM ET
You nailed it. Our issues have nothing to do with Reeves. We don’t have a top forward in our line up or an elite scorer. We’re going at it by comity again, which always equals Seesaw season.
- SuperSchennBros

Edmonton has not only 1 but 2 elite scorers on the team

Remind me again how that worked for Edmonton and how those elite players did in the playoffs....

And they aren't even over 30 yet 😱
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 30 @ 11:50 AM ET
Hmmm .. sounds like a team that can challenge for a Cup, eh? Oh right, there's the other side of the coin, team defense ...
- jd250

Was team defense an issue the year before last?
ClaudeFather
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: west haven, CT
Joined: 08.14.2015

Jul 30 @ 11:52 AM ET
The Athetic did a deep dive on Myers and his play. They posted about 10 different plays where he made a decision on a lack of effort that resulted in a goal.

However.

As much as they were bad decisions or soft plays, some of those plays would have been erased if the goalie had made a makeable save, in a few, an easy save.

It was like a cascade effect of bad things that happened over and over again. Bad decisions, bad coverages by other players.....


https://theathletic.com/2...-turned-into-a-step-back/

The last goal in this sequence...




1st and 3rd of this sequence....



Fletch was right, the way they lost the forward almost constantly tells me something about the Flyers coverage scheme that other teams saw and exploited. The coaching staff either never adjusted, or the players never executed....or both....

- MBFlyerfan

This was ugly haha
Letterkenney
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: Dementia Patient in the White House, DC, PA
Joined: 03.20.2020

Jul 30 @ 11:58 AM ET
Here's the problem with your entire premise:

The team allowed the 12th fewest shots per game in the league,
They allowed the 7th fewest shot attempts per game,
They allowed the 8th fewest scoring chances per game,
They ranked 13th in fewest high danger scoring chances allowed per game,
And their expected goals against placed them 11th-overall.

While the defense looked pretty bad at times and they were prone to giving up some backbreaking chances -- especially after just scoring a goal -- relative to the rest of the league they were actually kinda average. Maybe even a bit above. Might be hard to believe, but the #'s are plain as day.

Meanwhile team SV%, scoring chance SV%, and high danger SV% were all ranked...

DEAD (frank)ing LAST.


If Hart and Jones can't get the job this season, it won't matter who they have on the blueline... Seth Jones, Victor Hedman, Chris Pronger... they'll be near the bottom in goals against again. And goodbye playoffs.

- Tomahawk


It may be a fair point to make that the defense became bad when they lost all confidence in the guy in net and it just mushroomed from there.
SuperSchennBros
Location: Not protected by the Mods...I mean Mob. Take your best shot!
Joined: 09.01.2012

Jul 30 @ 12:01 PM ET
Edmonton has not only 1 but 2 elite scorers on the team

Remind me again how that worked for Edmonton and how those elite players did in the playoffs....

And they aren't even over 30 yet 😱

- Bob Habib

Those two players at minimum carries their team to the playoffs. Our entire forward group…didn’t.

Edmonton has been a bad team for decades. Why have we been a bubble team every other season the passed decade?
Lawless18
Philadelphia Flyers
Location: PA
Joined: 06.30.2014

Jul 30 @ 12:03 PM ET
Reeves wasn’t holding back Vegas from being a contender these passed three seasons. Neither has Wilson for the caps. In fact Wilson and Reeves faced each other three years ago in the Stanley Cup Final. I would love to pick up at least one guy who plays this style. I’ve always liked Zach Kassian.

In my opinion our mix of forwards isn’t a good one.

- SuperSchennBros


Agreed! I like our D, now time to fix the O....
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