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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: When will Ottawa get Brady Tkachuk signed to a new contract?!
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Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 8 @ 1:53 AM ET
💯 agree about giving him 10-11 million that’s just nuts and I don’t see Tkachuk wanting that but 7 7.5 8 I can see him getting 😉
- sens4life1971


No way in the world Brady is asking for 10 mil per! Especially after just 3 years in the league. His name isnt Connor McDavid!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 8 @ 1:55 AM ET
Who was it that was showing defence contracts a while back compared to Chabot?

9.25 for Nurse... He's a good player but...

- david22


Oilers had to overpay for him, if they didn't they would lose him in the summer during free agency. Then you get a cheaper version of Nurse and not nearly as productive. Again, how many free agents are wanting to sign in Edmonton? The Chabot deal looks great now!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 8 @ 1:55 AM ET
I have posted this a dozen times now, but with the reality of the NHL's cap, the Senators (and all NHL teams) should copy the blueprint set by several of the recent champions and implement a salary cap per player to facilitate building and maintaining a cap compliant team that can compete into the future and avoid the nightmare Toronto et al find themselves in.

Set the cap at or near Chabot's $8M and stick to the plan. If a player doesn't want to win with the Senators for at or around $8M per season trade them and find someone else who will.

- HoweHatrick


Beyond well said! 100% correct!
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Aug 8 @ 11:00 AM ET
And how much does Batherson get. As a rookie he has the same numbers as Tkachuk so potentially he should be more productive in the future. Dorion better be careful how he handles both contracts because he might be stuck in the middle of a poop storm.
- granpa

I have to agree - and resorting to max-term deals right out of the gate isn't necessarily the right solution. Some people have cited the fact that Tampa Bay has an internal $7.5M-$9.5M cap for their best players as the right direction, but they didn't jump right into that from ELC contracts. In fact, their pattern is very clear about using bridge deals, even for their absolute core players.

Kucherov - $4.8Mx3yr
Point - $6.8Mx3yr
Hedman - $4.0Mx5yr
Vasilevsky - $3.5Mx3yr

More recently...
Cirelli - $4.8Mx3yr
Sergachev - $4.8M x3yr

It's the two of these approaches in combination that have worked for Tampa Bay - not just offering up max-term because they like a player, regardless of their objective performance. I like Tkachuk, and agree that he has untapped offensive upside - but there's literally no other forward in the NHL who would be getting a $8Mx8yr contract for 3 seasons of 22G-45Pts output. And it's absolutely true that a single bad precedent contract can wreak havoc with your future negotiations... just look at the Leafs as exhibit A.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Aug 8 @ 11:23 AM ET
No doubt they are lacking right now at C and RW. I just got in from watching the Redblacks game on a patio with a few friends, plus a few Hockey Buzz readers that messaged me. Great meeting a few of you! Anyone can message me directly on here with the contact feature. I will try to reply to a few more of the comments.
- Kevin Francis
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Aug 8 @ 11:28 AM ET
I have to agree - and resorting to max-term deals right out of the gate isn't necessarily the right solution. Some people have cited the fact that Tampa Bay has an internal $7.5M-$9.5M cap for their best players as the right direction, but they didn't jump right into that from ELC contracts. In fact, their pattern is very clear about using bridge deals, even for their absolute core players.

Kucherov - $4.8Mx3yr
Point - $6.8Mx3yr
Hedman - $4.0Mx5yr
Vasilevsky - $3.5Mx3yr

More recently...
Cirelli - $4.8Mx3yr
Sergachev - $4.8M x3yr

It's the two of these approaches in combination that have worked for Tampa Bay - not just offering up max-term because they like a player, regardless of their objective performance. I like Tkachuk, and agree that he has untapped offensive upside - but there's literally no other forward in the NHL who would be getting a $8Mx8yr contract for 3 seasons of 22G-45Pts output. And it's absolutely true that a single bad precedent contract can wreak havoc with your future negotiations... just look at the Leafs as exhibit A.

- khawk


Love Brady and hope he stays forever. But Sens cannot blow up the long term strategy. There are more guys coming. They are going to need to be paid.

I have no difficulty in using a Tampa-like model. Perhaps you can add $1m per year on the annual average starting 3 years out. The impact of the new US tv deal and the diminished influence of escrow will likely push the cap upwards and beyond the $90m range,

Let's watch the Dougie Hamilton situation evolve. My guess, New Jersey will regret the signing. Carolina, on the other hand, will become more and more happy with their decision.

Teams need to be secure in the idea that the team as a whole can win by moving a guy through a trade or letting a guy walk in free agency.

Signing Brady cannot be more important than the overall growth of the team.

AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Aug 8 @ 11:29 AM ET
What is Brady Tkachuk Worth to me?

Brady's camp best case: 4 years @8m - This would allow Brady to become UFA on the basis of completed 7 NHL seasons. With that said I don't see Ottawa EVER signing him to 4 years. I also don't think the $8M term is fair until the deal is at least 7 years in length

Sen's camp best case: 8 years @>7m - This would allow the Sens to retain Brady until after he's 30. It would also be a very desirable cap hit. With that said, I don't see a long term deal (7 years+) being less than 7m. And if it is, it would be a great deal for PD to make and it wouldn't come in at much less than 7

What is fair market value for Brady?:
3 years @5M
7 years @7.15M

I think both of the above deals are very fair with the long term deal instantly make Brady the 7th highest paid LW in the game; ahead of Kyle Connor and Evander Kane. I think eventually that number will look better and better but I personally would not budge from that number long term. Gabriel Landerskog will never be higher than a 7M cap in his career and if Brady becomes that player then, and only then, is it fair to give him more!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 8 @ 1:01 PM ET

- AlfieisKing


Good group of guys, definitely do it for the next Redblacks game. It will be great to fo for the Sens opener!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 8 @ 1:07 PM ET
I have to agree - and resorting to max-term deals right out of the gate isn't necessarily the right solution. Some people have cited the fact that Tampa Bay has an internal $7.5M-$9.5M cap for their best players as the right direction, but they didn't jump right into that from ELC contracts. In fact, their pattern is very clear about using bridge deals, even for their absolute core players.

Kucherov - $4.8Mx3yr
Point - $6.8Mx3yr
Hedman - $4.0Mx5yr
Vasilevsky - $3.5Mx3yr

More recently...
Cirelli - $4.8Mx3yr
Sergachev - $4.8M x3yr

It's the two of these approaches in combination that have worked for Tampa Bay - not just offering up max-term because they like a player, regardless of their objective performance. I like Tkachuk, and agree that he has untapped offensive upside - but there's literally no other forward in the NHL who would be getting a $8Mx8yr contract for 3 seasons of 22G-45Pts output. And it's absolutely true that a single bad precedent contract can wreak havoc with your future negotiations... just look at the Leafs as exhibit A.

- khawk



Great breakdown! The Lightning philosophy certainly speaks for itself with all their success in retaining their stars.
I mentioned in another comment how with so many other younger players that will be looking for new deals in the next 1-3 years, Ottawa needs to be careful how they handle Brady's contract. The team thought they were ahead of the curve with the Colin White contract, now they are regretting it. White had great numbers for a year due to Mark Stone! White never should have been given a 6 year deal, rather a bridge deal.
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 8 @ 1:12 PM ET


Signing Brady cannot be more important than the overall growth of the team.

- spatso



Well said!
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 8 @ 1:13 PM ET


3 years @5M
7 years @7.15M

!

- AlfieisKing


This is the best case scenario. Ottawa gets him signed to one of the 2 above!
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Aug 8 @ 4:38 PM ET
This is the best case scenario. Ottawa gets him signed to one of the 2 above!

- Kevin Francis


most likely out come, a 3-4 year deal, sees melnyk is a cheap ass and will no commit to building a cup team, Brady bolts in UFA or gets dealt the year before UFA before he can leave via UFA
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 8 @ 6:47 PM ET
most likely out come, a 3-4 year deal, sees melnyk is a cheap ass and will no commit to building a cup team, Brady bolts in UFA or gets dealt the year before UFA before he can leave via UFA
- Mithos


Sadly the biggest problem with this team is their owner!
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Aug 8 @ 7:49 PM ET
most likely out come, a 3-4 year deal, sees melnyk is a cheap ass and will no commit to building a cup team, Brady bolts in UFA or gets dealt the year before UFA before he can leave via UFA
- Mithos


This is not necessarily a bad option.

Brady is a very valuable and highly negotiable asset.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Aug 8 @ 7:52 PM ET
Out to a family event this afternoon. Many Sens fans in attendance. A few with minor inside connections with Sens organization. All of them think Sens are huge player in Eichel swaps. Everyone thinks that the Sabres do not want to deal him in East. But, if they go East they would prefer to deal with the Sens rather than the Rangers.
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Aug 8 @ 8:43 PM ET
This is not necessarily a bad option.

Brady is a very valuable and highly negotiable asset.

- spatso

I don't get this, sorry.

If he's very valuable then we need to retain him - plain and simple. We are building a contender after suffering through 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and again 1 more year
GrimmdaGoalie
Ottawa Senators
Location: Ottawa, ON
Joined: 01.07.2016

Aug 8 @ 11:09 PM ET
No way does Brady sign for less AAV than his brother did in Calgary.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Aug 9 @ 6:29 AM ET
I don't get this, sorry.

If he's very valuable then we need to retain him - plain and simple. We are building a contender after suffering through 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and again 1 more year

- AlfieisKing


You can own a very valuable asset but also decide that it might prove too expensive to retain. The Leafs are teaching the rest of the league the importance of this lesson.

Leafs have close to $42m tied up in 4 contracts (Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander). Most fans agree that the Leafs are a very good regular season team but habitual playoff busts. Understanding how the Leafs created this mess is helpful for everyone trying to understand the mystical powers of the cap.

The Sens next contract with Brady will likely become the benchmark for many of the players and prospects in the Sens system. So, if he benchmarks at $7m we will be fine with Batherson, Stutzle and the rest. However if Brady becomes the benchmark at $10m, the Sens will very quickly find themselves dealing with the same problems faced by the leafs.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Aug 9 @ 9:02 AM ET
The Oilers are now in "Leafs territory" with three players eating up over $30M in cap space. The Draisaitl contract looks good but with McDavid and Nurse chewing up almost $22M they could be in some cap trouble as well.
HoweHatrick
Joined: 01.02.2014

Aug 9 @ 10:50 AM ET
If they can get Brady under contract at or near $7M x 8 years I say take it.
david22
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 04.15.2008

Aug 9 @ 11:54 AM ET
Sens get a new ECHL affiliate.

Atlanta Gladiators
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 9 @ 1:18 PM ET
New piece up!
AlfieisKing
Ottawa Senators
Location: Canada, ON
Joined: 11.05.2007

Aug 9 @ 1:23 PM ET
You can own a very valuable asset but also decide that it might prove too expensive to retain. The Leafs are teaching the rest of the league the importance of this lesson.

Leafs have close to $42m tied up in 4 contracts (Matthews, Marner, Tavares and Nylander). Most fans agree that the Leafs are a very good regular season team but habitual playoff busts. Understanding how the Leafs created this mess is helpful for everyone trying to understand the mystical powers of the cap.

The Sens next contract with Brady will likely become the benchmark for many of the players and prospects in the Sens system. So, if he benchmarks at $7m we will be fine with Batherson, Stutzle and the rest. However if Brady becomes the benchmark at $10m, the Sens will very quickly find themselves dealing with the same problems faced by the leafs.

- spatso

Now I understand your points

1. Panarin, Marner, OV, Kucherov, Rantanen, P.Kane, Stone are the only wingers in the top 30 of highest paid cap hits - these guys are point per game players - the bread man is well above that. These guys are the top of their field, won cups, and future hall of famers. Marner is the only 1 I would say is not worth the contract and that's becaused they paid him based on what he CAN and most likely will be.

2. There is NO way Thachuk will be more than a 8M cap hit. Chabot will hold that line until someone absolutely blows the doors open in their play. I think Thachuk will be a 6.75-7.75m cap hit - unless it's a 2/3 year bridge contract

3. Brady Tkachuk will be a solid player but he has a career high of 22g 45p. That is not worthy of the type of contracts those 4 Leaf players received
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