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Forums :: Blog World :: Kevin Francis: More on Tkachuk and would you bring back Tyler Ennis?
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Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 9 @ 11:59 PM ET
Really? I wouldn't bet on that re: Tkachuk. They just freed up $5m in Dadonov, and have the 2nd most cap space of any team on the league. Not to mention that teams can only afford an offer-sheet war if they can: a) afford it cap-wise, b) have the necessary picks, and c) actually get the player to sign. Right now very few teams are in a position to go after RFA like that. Conversely, there are at least 6-8 teams who are seriously vulnerable to these kinds of offers.

Plus, this is specifically a case where the team is pretty clearly planning to give the player limited ice time, as well as a low-ball contract offer. So there may actually be a motivation beyond $$$ for the player to sign... reminds me quite a bit of the Turris situation in Phoenix, actually. And I'm not entirely sure the Blues would just hand over $2m more than they want to pay for a player they clearly have bottom-6 intentions for.

- khawk


It's a great comparison with Turris. Man, Kyle was dynamite when he came over here.
TurdFergeson
Vegas Golden Knights
Location: On the road again
Joined: 01.04.2021

Aug 10 @ 12:00 AM ET
You're a complete (frank)ing loser. Need proof?

You came in here only after reading at 2:51pm today someone suggest in the main blog that Kevin is actually Ek.

Really grasping for attention, eh? Well congrats, you got it, clown. Sorry it wasn't the handslapping you were expecting.

Now why don't you, Kooleus and Gerges go back to being the cool kids of HockeyBuzz

- IRON.MAIDEN

Awe you’re cute.

I don’t give a (frank) actually. Ek is a moron. I sincerely hope your blogger is way smarter than him.
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Aug 10 @ 3:57 AM ET
Really? I wouldn't bet on that re: Tkachuk. They just freed up $5m in Dadonov, and have the 2nd most cap space of any team on the league. Not to mention that teams can only afford an offer-sheet war if they can: a) afford it cap-wise, b) have the necessary picks, and c) actually get the player to sign. Right now very few teams are in a position to go after RFA like that. Conversely, there are at least 6-8 teams who are seriously vulnerable to these kinds of offers.

Plus, this is specifically a case where the team is pretty clearly planning to give the player limited ice time, as well as a low-ball contract offer. So there may actually be a motivation beyond $$$ for the player to sign... reminds me quite a bit of the Turris situation in Phoenix, actually. And I'm not entirely sure the Blues would just hand over $2m more than they want to pay for a player they clearly have bottom-6 intentions for.

- khawk



You are ignoring everything in my comment (Blues can trade Tarasenko & sign Tkachuk to signing bonus heavy contract that Melnyk won't allow his GM to match).

Yes, in a dream world where Melnyk is willing to spend to the salary cap and write big checks as needed, and where GM's don't have a gentleman's agreement not to offer sheet each others players, and where hockeybuzz blogs have accurate information on teams plans for players (Blues GM said Schenn on LW, Thomas as 2C), and where Thomas wasn't spending every day in the Tkachuk house hearing them talk about not wanting to sign long term in Ottawa, everything you are saying would makes sense. But here in reality... not so much lol.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Aug 10 @ 6:25 AM ET
You are ignoring everything in my comment (Blues can trade Tarasenko & sign Tkachuk to signing bonus heavy contract that Melnyk won't allow his GM to match).

Yes, in a dream world where Melnyk is willing to spend to the salary cap and write big checks as needed, and where GM's don't have a gentleman's agreement not to offer sheet each others players, and where hockeybuzz blogs have accurate information on teams plans for players (Blues GM said Schenn on LW, Thomas as 2C), and where Thomas wasn't spending every day in the Tkachuk house hearing them talk about not wanting to sign long term in Ottawa, everything you are saying would makes sense. But here in reality... not so much lol.

- Antilles


Actually, the best outcome for the Sens is an offer sheet for Tkachuk. Sens need to significantly up their salary base to get to the cap floor. In addition, the Sens were operating off of a line of credit guaranteed by the league ($135m. established in 2018). My guess (and it is only a guess) most of the line of credit has already been fully spent. So, the net effect, of an offer sheet in the first instance would be a crisis for the note holder and no doubt their insistence that the league guarantee a match.

Most folks who talk about offer sheets may know something about hockey but they know very little about financing.

A bunch of years ago Nashville was sitting in a similar ownership position to Ottawa. Philadelphia thought they might exploit the ownership vulnerability by making a very substantial front end loaded offer sheet to Shea Weber. The rest is history. People remember that Nashville matched the offer. What most fans fail to recall is the offer sheet forced team ownership to recapitalize the team. Overnight, Nashville brought in huge cash reserves and stabilized their financial shortcomings through a simple restructuring of the ownership group.

It is common knowledge within Ottawa and within the NHL ownership club that there is huge money sitting on the sidelines in Ottawa waiting for the opportunity to become engaged in Sens ownership. Every level of government, developers and the business community as a whole are wanting to see that happen. Melnyk hangs on trying to bootstrap the value of the franchise upwards.

If the Tkachuk contract is the catalyst that forces a financial reckoning, count me in. I am all for it. An offer sheet would give Melnyk an excuse, an opportunity to save face. Most important. it would give the league and the other ownership partners a leverage in forcing a restructured outcome.

Melnyk has delayed billions of dollars in approved city development because he could not meet his end of a minor cash call during the planning stages for a new rink. Most folks get sidetracked by the smoke and mirrors Melnyk spins each day. The man has no money and nothing is going to reverse that reality. He skipped on a million dollar casino gambling debt. I chuckled when I saw the league move so quickly on Evander Kane gambling allegations. A player with a gambling problem is a serious problem. An owner with a gambling problem is a catastrophe. And, you can be certain that Gary Bettman has already missed sleep worrying about that issue.

Chris Phillips just resigned as Chairman of the Sens Foundation. He would not comment on why he resigned. But, he would not deny that it had something to do with the firing of the Executive Director of the foundation by Melnyk. In the space of a few years one of the most successful charitable organizations in Canada has been reduced to a mere whisper of its once robust community leadership.

Count me in as fully supporting an offer sheet for Brady T. if it moves us into a final act on the soap opera known as the Ottawa Senators ownership group.
Mithos
Joined: 04.14.2021

Aug 10 @ 7:23 AM ET
Actually, the best outcome for the Sens is an offer sheet for Tkachuk. Sens need to significantly up their salary base to get to the cap floor. In addition, the Sens were operating off of a line of credit guaranteed by the league ($135m. established in 2018). My guess (and it is only a guess) most of the line of credit has already been fully spent. So, the net effect, of an offer sheet in the first instance would be a crisis for the note holder and no doubt their insistence that the league guarantee a match.

Most folks who talk about offer sheets may know something about hockey but they know very little about financing.

A bunch of years ago Nashville was sitting in a similar ownership position to Ottawa. Philadelphia thought they might exploit the ownership vulnerability by making a very substantial front end loaded offer sheet to Shea Weber. The rest is history. People remember that Nashville matched the offer. What most fans fail to recall is the offer sheet forced team ownership to recapitalize the team. Overnight, Nashville brought in huge cash reserves and stabilized their financial shortcomings through a simple restructuring of the ownership group.

It is common knowledge within Ottawa and within the NHL ownership club that there is huge money sitting on the sidelines in Ottawa waiting for the opportunity to become engaged in Sens ownership. Every level of government, developers and the business community as a whole are wanting to see that happen. Melnyk hangs on trying to bootstrap the value of the franchise upwards.

If the Tkachuk contract is the catalyst that forces a financial reckoning, count me in. I am all for it. An offer sheet would give Melnyk an excuse, an opportunity to save face. Most important. it would give the league and the other ownership partners a leverage in forcing a restructured outcome.

Melnyk has delayed billions of dollars in approved city development because he could not meet his end of a minor cash call during the planning stages for a new rink. Most folks get sidetracked by the smoke and mirrors Melnyk spins each day. The man has no money and nothing is going to reverse that reality. He skipped on a million dollar casino gambling debt. I chuckled when I saw the league move so quickly on Evander Kane gambling allegations. A player with a gambling problem is a serious problem. An owner with a gambling problem is a catastrophe. And, you can be certain that Gary Bettman has already missed sleep worrying about that issue.

Chris Phillips just resigned as Chairman of the Sens Foundation. He would not comment on why he resigned. But, he would not deny that it had something to do with the firing of the Executive Director of the foundation by Melnyk. In the space of a few years one of the most successful charitable organizations in Canada has been reduced to a mere whisper of its once robust community leadership.

Count me in as fully supporting an offer sheet for Brady T. if it moves us into a final act on the soap opera known as the Ottawa Senators ownership group.

- spatso



Many will point out melnyk is estimated to be worth 1 billion $, 400-425M of that is the sens, and being worth $$$ does not mean he HAS $$$ Melnyk is Cash poor, meaning he has no cash on hand , his worth is all in the sens, bars/restaurant and real-estate. A bonus laden offer-sheet of Brady would make melnyks head explode and if he do not match it, the fans heads will explode at him.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Aug 10 @ 1:59 PM ET
You are ignoring everything in my comment (Blues can trade Tarasenko & sign Tkachuk to signing bonus heavy contract that Melnyk won't allow his GM to match).

Yes, in a dream world where Melnyk is willing to spend to the salary cap and write big checks as needed, and where GM's don't have a gentleman's agreement not to offer sheet each others players, and where hockeybuzz blogs have accurate information on teams plans for players (Blues GM said Schenn on LW, Thomas as 2C), and where Thomas wasn't spending every day in the Tkachuk house hearing them talk about not wanting to sign long term in Ottawa, everything you are saying would makes sense. But here in reality... not so much lol.

- Antilles

Yawn, snore. People assumed Chabot would get nickle and dimed and leave ASAP, but down came the $8Mx8yr deal. Then they added over $12M (in actual salary) last year in players like Murray, Dadonov, Stepan, and Gudbranson in a season where they didn't even have ticket revenue... and now that more than 1/2 of that money is freed up and they're >$7M below the cap floor, you really think they wouldn't match an RFA offer sheet to Tkachuk, who's one of the major icons of their rebuild? Guess it's easy to speculate, but I think you're every bit as wrong as anyone who thought the Aho RFA offer sheet was going to break Carolina. Not to mention that you might want to wait until the Tarasenko trade is actually done before you go counting up the millions they have left to offer sheet a player like Tkachuk, because the Blues are going to eat some $$$ in that trade.

As for Thomas, I don't really care what their GM might have said at some point in the unspecified past... use your brain, and look at the current roster situation. O'Reilly, Schenn, Perron, Buchnevich, Saad, Kyrou... that's your top-6 forwards, unless you really think they have Thomas ranked ahead of Kyrou, after Kyrou finished just 1pt behind both Hoffman and Schenn last year. If they really intended to play Thomas at #2C, they wouldn't have added over $10M in scoring forwards like Buchnevich/Saad... but that's exactly what they've done, which strongly indicates that Thomas is NOT in their top-6 plans for next year. So even if the Blues do trade Tarasenko without retaining too much salary and could afford to match Thomas at $4M/yr, it doesn't answer the question of whether they'd actually want to pay Thomas $4Myr to play a 3rd line role, or if that's what Thomas will be satisfied with as his role. Now I agree that they'd probably match just out of spite, but I think you're really overstating the extent to which the Senators are incapable of trying such an option.
Antilles
St Louis Blues
Joined: 10.17.2008

Aug 10 @ 6:11 PM ET
As for Thomas, I don't really care what their GM might have said at some point in the unspecified past... use your brain
- khawk



Which contracts Sens signed required Melnyk to sign a check for 10m by the end of the week exactly?

And... you aren't just ignoring the GM. You are ignoring all of the stats (Perron, Buch, and Kyrou all perform SIGNIFICANTLY better on the right than on the left) and all the statements made by the players (All 3 have discussed preferring to stay on the right) along with ignoring everything said by the GM... and following that up with telling someone else to use their brain... again, it seems like you don't like the reality of the situation, so you are just ignoring how it conflicts with what you want to be true.
Sens Writer
Location: Vancouver, BC
Joined: 08.19.2013

Aug 10 @ 7:26 PM ET
Which contracts Sens signed required Melnyk to sign a check for 10m by the end of the week exactly?

And... you aren't just ignoring the GM. You are ignoring all of the stats (Perron, Buch, and Kyrou all perform SIGNIFICANTLY better on the right than on the left) and all the statements made by the players (All 3 have discussed preferring to stay on the right) along with ignoring everything said by the GM... and following that up with telling someone else to use their brain... again, it seems like you don't like the reality of the situation, so you are just ignoring how it conflicts with what you want to be true.

- Antilles

There's a difference between not wanting to have a signing bonus like that in the contract, and giving up on one of your best young players because of it. Plus, what contract with a $10M signing bonus do you think the Blues could possibly drum up? They don't even have the draft picks necessary to offer anything beyond a $6.16M/yr deal... which would be pretty much as good a deal as the Senators would hope for with Tkachuk. Plus, even if someone did take it to a $9M/$10M level, Tkachuk is one of 2-3 players that the Senators would break the bank for, just like Carolina did.
https://www.capfriendly.com/offer-sheet-calculator

As for the Blues... wow, so their players get to dictate their place in the lineup in the off-season via media interviews before they've even been to training camp? Wonder if one of those RW might feel a bit less strongly about it when the coach puts the actual lineup together, and the alternative to playing LW on a strong scoring line is a 3rd line role where their production gets cut in half? And sure, maybe the Blues really are planning to move their established $6.5M/yr veteran #2C (and 2nd best faceoff guy by a mile) to LW so Thomas can try to improve on a 12pts/42.6% FO season, while also bumping either Kyrou or a $5M/yr winger down to the 3rd line... just seems like they'd be effectively mismanaging ~$10M of more established forward talent to make that happen, but hey - you do you. However, the "stats" would suggest a few problems with that.
spazzbot
Location: Maple Zombie
Joined: 02.14.2013

Aug 10 @ 8:23 PM ET
Fair point, but the team has made such a loud commitment to "character" players that playing hardball like that with one of your heart and soul guys could negatively effect that persona.
- david22



I am not even sure this team has a heart or soul yet. .. i suspect it will be max length x 7.8
spazzbot
Location: Maple Zombie
Joined: 02.14.2013

Aug 10 @ 8:37 PM ET
Many will point out melnyk is estimated to be worth 1 billion $, 400-425M of that is the sens, and being worth $$$ does not mean he HAS $$$ Melnyk is Cash poor, meaning he has no cash on hand , his worth is all in the sens, bars/restaurant and real-estate. A bonus laden offer-sheet of Brady would make melnyks head explode and if he do not match it, the fans heads will explode at him.
- Mithos


Pure speculation. .. and btw most billionaires dont have much liquid cash....thats relative poor people thinking cash on hand

Melynk will likely be here for a long time and shovels will be in Lebreton in 2 years for a new stadium
Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 10 @ 9:19 PM ET
Pure speculation. .. and btw most billionaires dont have much liquid cash....thats relative poor people thinking cash on hand

Melynk will likely be here for a long time and shovels will be in Lebreton in 2 years for a new stadium

- spazzbot


Honestly, the ship has sailed on Lebreton for Melnyk. Prior to Covid hitting in March 2020 shutting down the season, Melnyk had to go to the league 3 times that season to get help on meeting payroll. A close friend during that season was the Sens accountant. There is so much I wish I could post regarding Melnyk and his financial issues. For the last 4 years the league has had to bail out Melnyk financially. The league doesn't want another Atlanta mess, etc...

There is a reason the Rudy group sued Melnyk, they knew he didn't have a leg to stand on.

https://ottawacitizen.com...-loss-in-lebreton-lawsuit


Kevin Francis
Ottawa Senators
Joined: 07.21.2021

Aug 10 @ 9:24 PM ET
Oh and the NCC will never deal with Melnyk agian, it's all online to see. It's too bad, because Lebreton Flats was the ideal location. Melnyk himself has gone on record as stating he will continue to upgrade CTC while looking at other options, he even said he was looking at land in Gatineau.
spazzbot
Location: Maple Zombie
Joined: 02.14.2013

Aug 10 @ 10:36 PM ET
Honestly, the ship has sailed on Lebreton for Melnyk. Prior to Covid hitting in March 2020 shutting down the season, Melnyk had to go to the league 3 times that season to get help on meeting payroll. A close friend during that season was the Sens accountant. There is so much I wish I could post regarding Melnyk and his financial issues. For the last 4 years the league has had to bail out Melnyk financially. The league doesn't want another Atlanta mess, etc...

There is a reason the Rudy group sued Melnyk, they knew he didn't have a leg to stand on.

https://ottawacitizen.com...-loss-in-lebreton-lawsuit

- Kevin Francis


I was not aware that Melynk was bailed out 3 times in 2019/20. ???
A judge can't order anybody to do anything unless its part of his verdict.. but makes a great headline
spazzbot
Location: Maple Zombie
Joined: 02.14.2013

Aug 10 @ 10:43 PM ET
Oh and the NCC will never deal with Melnyk agian, it's all online to see. It's too bad, because Lebreton Flats was the ideal location. Melnyk himself has gone on record as stating he will continue to upgrade CTC while looking at other options, he even said he was looking at land in Gatineau.
- Kevin Francis


Sure they will. There not going to say no if everything is in order. It was more of a problem of public funding why it fell apart , wich other Canadian cities are and have experienced problems with in regards to sports stadiums.
As far as upgrades go.every older building,house always needs upgrades unless you want it to fall apart. That does not mean anything more then that.
spatso
Ottawa Senators
Location: jensen beach, FL
Joined: 02.19.2007

Aug 11 @ 6:36 AM ET
I was not aware that Melynk was bailed out 3 times in 2019/20. ???
A judge can't order anybody to do anything unless its part of his verdict.. but makes a great headline

- spazzbot


Regardless, Kaufman wrote in his decision, “there are good reasons to believe CSMI has insufficient assets in Ontario to pay (defendants’) costs.”

Most folks don't understand how quickly insolvency can become the only option for the resolution of a commercial dispute. If, as Master Kaufman ruled, Melnyk may not be able to cover Ruddy and Bird's legal expenses...how would he pay the damages when he loses the case?

Melnyk can't let it get to that point. Just like the gambling debts with the Mohecan Casino, he will settle. I do not believe the NHL and the other owners will guarantee the loans necessary to bail him out of this situation.

It is boring stuff for most hockey fans. But, resolution is coming.


spazzbot
Location: Maple Zombie
Joined: 02.14.2013

Aug 11 @ 9:18 AM ET
Regardless, Kaufman wrote in his decision, “there are good reasons to believe CSMI has insufficient assets in Ontario to pay (defendants’) costs.”

Most folks don't understand how quickly insolvency can become the only option for the resolution of a commercial dispute. If, as Master Kaufman ruled, Melnyk may not be able to cover Ruddy and Bird's legal expenses...how would he pay the damages when he loses the case?



Melnyk can't let it get to that point. Just like the gambling debts with the Mohecan Casino, he will settle. I do not believe the NHL and the other owners will guarantee the loans necessary to bail him out of this situation.

It is boring stuff for most hockey fans. But, resolution is coming.

- spatso


I agree boring stuff.
Why would the nhl bailout a private lawsuit?
Correct. Most disputes do get settled .

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