Well, the difference might be at one time their play warranted being one of top 3 contracts for D-men. Just a guess.
- Elbows15

Well those are still bad contracts, even the Suter contract is bad. Price, Weber, such a long list of paying players way way way past their prime.

Suter the dman

I'm not a fan of Stan, but I do not hate the S.Jones deal and extension as much as many of you. Yes, it is a risk. Yes, there are legit concerns. But it is not predetermined to fail.

Take the S.Jones PP role on the Hawks, for instance. Two big factors in the decline in S.Jones traditional stats the past few years has been (i) a change in how he was deployed (e.g., less PP emphasis, more PK emphasis, more shutting down top lines) and (ii) Columbus getting relatively fewer PP chances. Also fewer primary assists on PP due to lack of finishers on Columbus PP.

If the Hawks give him PP1 emphasis, less PK deployment, and do not count on him as the primary shut down D all the time, and the Hawks should get more PP chances that Columbus has the past couple years, you can see a direct path to his traditional stats rebounding.

The fancy stats don't fully account for a lot of these influences. Some better than others. I'd also like the see the Hawks get his ATOI back down around 24.
- LetsGoHawks

Actually, they do. So, pay 9.5M for a "#1" D-man and not play him on the PK? Hmm. Bold move Cotton.

Hey Theo. The only guys on the active roster who have shown the ability to produce points from the backend are S. Jones and Kalynuk. That being the case, I think all the pairs are going to concentrate on being "shutdown" pairs until some more of the offensively gifted prospects are ready to play.
- Chunk

I don't think it's a bad thing to have defensive Dmen. The Hawks have a pretty good amount of goal scoring capability if they can keep the puck out of their end more. Also, I wouldn't discount Murphy's ability to chip in. He and Keith tied for 2nd in points from Hawks D last season. Keep in mind that compared to Keith/Boqvist, Murphy did more of the heavy lifting defensively and didn't get nearly so many offensive opportunities. He won't be an offensive force or anything, but he has some skill to contribute, especially if he has a solid partner. Since joining the Hawks he has had to as times babysit some guys who aren't really NHL material.

Well those are still bad contracts, even the Suter contract is bad. Price, Weber, such a long list of paying players way way way past their prime.

Suter the dman
- BetweenTheDots

Weber and Suter were both signed under the old rules. So those fall into a different category. Price is definitely a bad contract.

Good thoughts and points on S Jones. I know many of the advanced stats point to him actually being the reason for his declining performance.

Regardless, I hope this clean slate and new opportunity will reverse his fortune for not only his own performance but also more importantly for the Hawks as a whole.
- Theo Fox

Definitely a positive for him to get out of that situation. He should have a lot of decent hockey left in him. The 'stats' are what they are, but rarely tell enough of the story. If they did, teams wouldn't need to employ all their scouts. I called this out in a recent post, the Hawks are actually committing less % of their salary cap next year (11.5%) to Jones than they did to Brian Campbell when they gave him 12.6%. While they aren't exactly similar players, two guys who put up similar offensive production in the NHL.

Definitely a positive for him to get out of that situation. He should have a lot of decent hockey left in him. The 'stats' are what they are, but rarely tell enough of the story. If they did, teams wouldn't need to employ all their scouts. I called this out in a recent post, the Hawks are actually committing less % of their salary cap next year (11.5%) to Jones than they did to Brian Campbell when they gave him 12.6%. While they aren't exactly similar players, two guys who put up similar offensive production in the NHL.
- breadbag

If he plays as well as Seabrook did in his prime, I'll be happy.

Now I know you’re not telling the truth. Mo is known as alligator arms because of his inability to reach money to pay for the card.

Joking aside, thanks Theo for the great job and the effort you put into your blogs. Like Tyler before you I like how you bring up new ideas almost daily for us to discuss. I really appreciate it. I’ll get your Starbucks card to you soon.
- paulr

Look, Jerky, I re-gifted the Starbucks card.

or fail to recognize the right person for the job was under your nose the whole time.
- Elbows15

Most managers have to get a hire approved by a vp. If the vp has something against the person it sucks for two out of three of you. Been there done that.

If he plays as well as Seabrook did in his prime, I'll be happy.
- BetweenTheDots

That suggests we need a Norris Trophy winner as his partner.

If he plays as well as Seabrook did in his prime, I'll be happy.
- BetweenTheDots

It's a bold move. Bold moves are about bold ambitions. If Keith didn't request the trade, IMO this move would never had been made. He gets a 6'4 209 pound very good skating forward who eats 25 minutes a night. I am sure Stan, and the staff knows all about the advanced stats.

As far as the dollars and term, IDK, you have Pionk signing for 4 years at $5.875, Nurse 8 years at $9.25, Werenski, 6 years at $9.58, looks like if you want a defenseman that can play 25 minutes a game, this is the going rate.

I hear you, and I think the Hawks saw that and made moves to address it. The problem comes in that you NEED the back end to be able to generate offense. Not necessarily points themselves, but identify ways to quickly get the puck out of the zone and to someone who can attack the opponent. We don't have a lot of that on the back end right now. Hopefully the improved overall D creates that better atmosphere.
- Chunk

Offense starts with defense, and defense starts with offense. If you want the defense to improve and be a lot better the forwards need to be a part of the solution.

Offense starts with defense, and defense starts with offense. If you want the defense to improve and be a lot better the forwards need to be a part of the solution.
- 6628

Stole the words right outta my mouth … eerrr fingers.

Offense starts with defense, and defense starts with offense. If you want the defense to improve and be a lot better the forwards need to be a part of the solution.
- 6628

I second this notion.

We all know about Seth Jones and what he can bring to the Hawks, I've been trying to research scouting reports and feedback on brother CALEB. We know he has good size, very mobile, one report claimed Caleb is more physical than Seth, but less of an offensive threat. Not great at any one aspect but good all around. One report said that Seth helped him in the offseason with cardio workout, so he does like to push the pace. as does Seth. The one negative that I found out about him is turnovers. Hope he cleans that up and becomes reliable in several situations. Give us six reliable defensemen and I think the Hawks will be all right

My impression of the Blackhawks and the current lineup is, Buffalo Sabers. I don’t know why, but that’s the feeling I get.
- Diamondhands

JFC....they aren't a lottery pick caliber team.

I stopped reading the athletic and if anyone had/has season tickets Scott powers was reaching out again via email to get your opinions.....based on the questions I received it was clear as day what the agenda of said piece was. Can we launch Lazerus into the sun? What a worthless collection of O2 that guy is.

Good thoughts and points on S Jones. I know many of the advanced stats point to him actually being the reason for his declining performance.

Regardless, I hope this clean slate and new opportunity will reverse his fortune for not only his own performance but also more importantly for the Hawks as a whole.
- Theo Fox

I say this tongue in cheek...but you want to get 1000 comments? Post a 1 time blog about Seth Jones trade, giving up 1st round picks, and watch the fire spread.....

Seriously though.....some hate it, some love it, some are hopeful for the best. Not 1 person in the 1st, 2 group is going to change their opinion, and it will likely take a few years for group 3 to move to either group 1 or 2....it gets exhausting reading the same rhetoric over and over again...I get this time of year is slow, but whats done is done.

I am sure somebody has it, but I would LOVE To know the percentage of 1st round picks, by where they are picked that 1. make the nhl, 2. and the average number of games they play and their production......for all the grandstanding about giving up 1st round picks to acquire somebody is a #13 pick really a lock and a future building block or is it a higher risk than a guy like Jones rebounding in a new system, with a new team, and better players?

Outside of that, I enjoy your blogs.

Weber and Suter were both signed under the old rules. So those fall into a different category. Price is definitely a bad contract.
- Elbows15

curious why you think Price is a bad contract? Because all I see on twitter from Canadian media is how Price walks on water?

Do you not believe in the "franchise goalie" belief? Is Price's inability to win a cup due to his cap constraints on the team OR he just not be worth the value....if that's the case.....what elite player making elite money is worth IT?

Offense starts with defense, and defense starts with offense. If you want the defense to improve and be a lot better the forwards need to be a part of the solution.
- 6628

agreed.....and I guess the MILLION dollar question is does the JC version of whatever system he is trying to run/implement call for dedication from the forwards or does he let this slip some?

I try to figure it out when I watch games and for as much mistakes as they make, and prime chances they give up, he doesn't seem to bench guys the way Q did when he came on board in 2008. I don't know if that's a directive from upper management or trying to let kids grow as they play, but with a more veteran lineup this year....very intrigued how this plays out.

i still contend having a PROVEN goalie will allow some guys to play "looser" especially younger players. Like nfl o lines having a quality qb vs an average one.....as many mistakes don't happen.

It's a bold move. Bold moves are about bold ambitions. If Keith didn't request the trade, IMO this move would never had been made. He gets a 6'4 209 pound very good skating forward who eats 25 minutes a night. I am sure Stan, and the staff knows all about the advanced stats.

As far as the dollars and term, IDK, you have Pionk signing for 4 years at $5.875, Nurse 8 years at $9.25, Werenski, 6 years at $9.58, looks like if you want a defenseman that can play 25 minutes a game, this is the going rate.
- LAHawk

You mean the actual experts who put together championship teams should be given the benefit of the doubt when things like that happen? You don't say.....

All seriousness, one major downfall of the new age of advanced stats is everyone now thinking they are on par with the professionals (pick your sport ops). I am a numbers guy by trade but some of these new stats seem like overkill where everyone who reads a graph thinks they are a scout and can predict demise for each player.

There are always exceptions to every rule......2 guys who immediately come to mind.....Chelios and Jagr.

Both were VERY effective well beyond the age of 30 when supposed demise begins. With the training, dieting these athletes have at their disposal (cost prohibitive) they can ideally engineer their bodies to to be in shape well beyond the average joe.

JFC....they aren't a lottery pick caliber team.

I stopped reading the athletic and if anyone had/has season tickets Scott powers was reaching out again via email to get your opinions.....based on the questions I received it was clear as day what the agenda of said piece was. Can we launch Lazerus into the sun? What a worthless collection of O2 that guy is.
- SteveRain

I dropped them a couple months ago for the same reason.

JFC....they aren't a lottery pick caliber team.

I stopped reading the athletic and if anyone had/has season tickets Scott powers was reaching out again via email to get your opinions.....based on the questions I received it was clear as day what the agenda of said piece was. Can we launch Lazerus into the sun? What a worthless collection of O2 that guy is.
- SteveRain

Any team that misses the playoffs is a lottery team. This team is a bubble team UNLESS 4-5 players step up.

curious why you think Price is a bad contract? Because all I see on twitter from Canadian media is how Price walks on water?

Do you not believe in the "franchise goalie" belief? Is Price's inability to win a cup due to his cap constraints on the team OR he just not be worth the value....if that's the case.....what elite player making elite money is worth IT?
- SteveRain

Price is not worth the value at all. Price was already in the ordinary category when they signed him to that contract. He has had 3 excellent seasons, the last being in 2016 btw, and the rest of his career, he is just another goalie. Maybe a bit above average but nowhere near worth his cap hit.

We all know about Seth Jones and what he can bring to the Hawks, I've been trying to research scouting reports and feedback on brother CALEB. We know he has good size, very mobile, one report claimed Caleb is more physical than Seth, but less of an offensive threat. Not great at any one aspect but good all around. One report said that Seth helped him in the offseason with cardio workout, so he does like to push the pace. as does Seth. The one negative that I found out about him is turnovers. Hope he cleans that up and becomes reliable in several situations. Give us six reliable defensemen and I think the Hawks will be all right
- chuckdahammer

Caleb Jones couldn't crack the roster on a team starving for d-men. Huge red flag. He is 24 and Edmonton was hoping he was ready to step up. instead he was out performed by Slater (frank)ing Koekkoek.

Any team that misses the playoffs is a lottery team. This team is a bubble team UNLESS 4-5 players step up.
- Elbows15

lottery pick team=HIGH percentage of 1st round pick...ie....last in any of the divisions.


What said players are you referring to?

I don't disagree they are a fringe playoff team as of NOW. We as fans will never know the reasons for the abrupt spending even with Bowman spinning his narrative that spending was always in the plans, but they didn't expect to get money this soon (ie...Keith requesting out, and possibly Seabrook going on permanent LTIR).

I think moving forward the chances of retaining a European signing (Kubalik) vs them leaving after their first deal expires (suter, panarin) is going to alter the minds of some GMs moving forward when building teams.

I 100% disagree with your assertion that Johnson and Suter will at best even out in scoring with you likely leaning that Suter will pass him. I didn't know Steve Yzerman was the greatest GM in the history of the game and likely overpaid for a guy who was benefited from playing with Kane a lot.....Johnson made sacrifices to fill a hole/need on Tampa to allow them to win cups....and still is producing at a career wise 0.61 pts/game. Think he likely lands up with Toews in hopes that a Gaudette or Borgstrom can man a 3rd line role.

You mean the actual experts who put together championship teams should be given the benefit of the doubt when things like that happen? You don't say.....

All seriousness, one major downfall of the new age of advanced stats is everyone now thinking they are on par with the professionals (pick your sport ops). I am a numbers guy by trade but some of these new stats seem like overkill where everyone who reads a graph thinks they are a scout and can predict demise for each player.

There are always exceptions to every rule......2 guys who immediately come to mind.....Chelios and Jagr.

Both were VERY effective well beyond the age of 30 when supposed demise begins. With the training, dieting these athletes have at their disposal (cost prohibitive) they can ideally engineer their bodies to to be in shape well beyond the average joe.
- SteveRain

You do realize a lot of "these stats guys" are being hired by NHL teams, right?

So wait. You want to know what percentage of 1st round picks make it. You mean guys picked by professional scouts? See the irony here?

Mike Milbury, Garth Snow, Peter Holland and Tim Murray, to name just a few, were all hired as professional GMs. You don't think at least one guy on this board couldn't do just as horrible as them if given all the resources those clowns had at their disposal?