Price is not worth the value at all. Price was already in the ordinary category when they signed him to that contract. He has had 3 excellent seasons, the last being in 2016 btw, and the rest of his career, he is just another goalie. Maybe a bit above average but nowhere near worth his cap hit.
- Elbows15

Is there a player that has signed north of say 8.5 long term who has lived up to their deal since the cap era?

Is there a player that has signed north of say 8.5 long term who has lived up to their deal since the cap era?

Steve Rain

Kane?

lottery pick team=HIGH percentage of 1st round pick...ie....last in any of the divisions.


What said players are you referring to?

I don't disagree they are a fringe playoff team as of NOW. We as fans will never know the reasons for the abrupt spending even with Bowman spinning his narrative that spending was always in the plans, but they didn't expect to get money this soon (ie...Keith requesting out, and possibly Seabrook going on permanent LTIR).

I think moving forward the chances of retaining a European signing (Kubalik) vs them leaving after their first deal expires (suter, panarin) is going to alter the minds of some GMs moving forward when building teams.

I 100% disagree with your assertion that Johnson and Suter will at best even out in scoring with you likely leaning that Suter will pass him. I didn't know Steve Yzerman was the greatest GM in the history of the game and likely overpaid for a guy who was benefited from playing with Kane a lot.....Johnson made sacrifices to fill a hole/need on Tampa to allow them to win cups....and still is producing at a career wise 0.61 pts/game. Think he likely lands up with Toews in hopes that a Gaudette or Borgstrom can man a 3rd line role.
- SteveRain

No, you can't change the defintion because it doesn't fit yours. According to the league, any team NOT in the playoffs, is in fact, a lottery team.

Johnson is being tabbed to play center according to Bowman's comments of last week.

The last two years for Johnson
21=.4
20= .47
If it was so easy for anyone to produce with Kane, how come no else was able to do it on last year's team?

I think the point totals will be closer than you think. Johnson will getting 3rd line minutes with a couple of question marks on his wings. Hopefully he does produce cause he is here for 3 more years.

Is there a player that has signed north of say 8.5 long term who has lived up to their deal since the cap era?
- SteveRain

Kane, Ovie, Kucherov, McDavid, Matthews, Marner, Drysaddle to name a few.

Yes. Matthews and Marner especially need to step it up in the POs, but their regular season numbers are in line.

You do realize a lot of "these stats guys" are being hired by NHL teams, right?

So wait. You want to know what percentage of 1st round picks make it. You mean guys picked by professional scouts? See the irony here?

Mike Milbury, Garth Snow, Peter Holland and Tim Murray, to name just a few, were all hired as professional GMs. You don't think at least one guy on this board couldn't do just as horrible as them if given all the resources those clowns had at their disposal?
- Elbows15

I do realize people are being hired by teams who develop new ways of evaluating talent. Like I said I am a numbers guy by trade and I enjoy the numbers....to an extent. However, i do have a large problem with the numbers being THE thing when projecting a future outcome and then have to read 900000000000 posts about how Stan Bowman just ruined the franchise because he gave up the 13th pick or whatever number it was and a next year's TBD 1st round pick, but then recouping a 1st round pick....which apparently picking 32nd in the 1st round doesn't count....but finishing 9th in the conference is a lottery team....see the irony there? People pushing narratives and ignoring the other side....gets exhausting.

Also, do these charts take into account variables like maybe Jones was beyond frustrated that his franchise gave up players when they were trying to win under Torch with Bob and Panarin, or a life altering decision like NOT resigning, giving up possibly larger money and protection (years) to push to get traded and start fresh? Or a guy like Gaudette getting his health right and putting on 20 lbs so maybe his production wont fall off a cliff because his stamina throughout the year would be longer?

I do want to see a breakdown since 2007, by 1st round slot on the average player drafted in each slot, their production and how long their careers lasted in the nHL.

I bet teams have that because the likely hood of a top 5 pick becoming a franchise staple is likely higher than a kid drafted at 19th overall.....unless like you said you have a clown as a gm like alpo suhonen or Bob Pulford.........yes some draft years will be "deeper" but for all the 1st round picks Bowman has had how many are still here as building blocks? Not many.....some were given up to keep a championship window and that's the cost of business to win (see Teuvo) and some were just flat out turds or dealt away because the team felt they were expendable........

That's my point.....a 1st round pick is a risk unless you get a consensus #1 in McDavid or Crosby........I am not anti draft pick for buildlng a team but I am also not going to sit here and whine assuming everyone this franchises picks will be some important part of the future because that's 100% false.

No, you can't change the defintion because it doesn't fit yours. According to the league, any team NOT in the playoffs, is in fact, a lottery team.

Johnson is being tabbed to play center according to Bowman's comments of last week.

The last two years for Johnson
21=.4
20= .47
If it was so easy for anyone to produce with Kane, how come no else was able to do it on last year's team?

I think the point totals will be closer than you think. Johnson will getting 3rd line minutes with a couple of question marks on his wings. Hopefully he does produce cause he is here for 3 more years.
- Elbows15

I hope Johnson sees time with Kane because he will produce IMO at a higher rate than what Suter did.

Hawks have wrongfully assumed they can throw anyone and everyone with Kane and get away with it......they rolled out Handzus's corpse for how long with him? Brad Richards on fumes......Amnisinov....shaw.....and on it goes....all are/were OK players but elite talent? NO......when they did throw an ELITE player with Kane...what happened? MVP season with Panarin.

Your right I won't change the definition but a 32nd round pick is still a 1st round pick.

Kane, Ovie, Kucherov, McDavid, Matthews, Marner, Drysaddle to name a few.

Yes. Matthews and Marner especially need to step it up in the POs, but their regular season numbers are in line.
- Elbows15

Ovechkin and Kane....yes

Others....are trending that way but lets see....especially Kucherov who has already had hip issues.

The likelyhood of any team getting equal to or exceeding value in regards to production vs payment is rare.......

More likely is that the team gets equal to or exceeding product vs what they pay and then the last 2-3 years the player comes out on top.....

The next Ovechkin deal......see what happens. Pulling for him to break Gretzky's record and will never pull against him, but 9.5 at his age......this board would have had guys female doging about that if Hawks did that.

Is there a player that has signed north of say 8.5 long term who has lived up to their deal since the cap era?

Steve Rain

Kane?
- LAHawk

agreed duration of the deal? Kane and Ovechkin.

Definitely a positive for him to get out of that situation. He should have a lot of decent hockey left in him. The 'stats' are what they are, but rarely tell enough of the story. If they did, teams wouldn't need to employ all their scouts. I called this out in a recent post, the Hawks are actually committing less % of their salary cap next year (11.5%) to Jones than they did to Brian Campbell when they gave him 12.6%. While they aren't exactly similar players, two guys who put up similar offensive production in the NHL.
- breadbag

Good points all around.

Another perspective to think about is that Jones' performance could improve if he has a supporting cast not only as his partner but also on the other pairs to help carry the load at both ends.

That's a tall order, though, so that could amplify the probability of him gripping his stick tighter and not perform up to his potential because of the pressure to be the #1 on the team and compensate for weaker D mates.

agreed duration of the deal? Kane and Ovechkin.
- SteveRain

Signing Ovi at 35 years old 5 years for $9.5 million per is not going to age well.

I hope Johnson sees time with Kane because he will produce IMO at a higher rate than what Suter did.

Hawks have wrongfully assumed they can throw anyone and everyone with Kane and get away with it......they rolled out Handzus's corpse for how long with him? Brad Richards on fumes......Amnisinov....shaw.....and on it goes....all are/were OK players but elite talent? NO......when they did throw an ELITE player with Kane...what happened? MVP season with Panarin.

Your right I won't change the definition but a 32nd round pick is still a 1st round pick.
- SteveRain

Except the 32 wasn't a 1st round pick until this year and in terms of actual value, its is equal to a 3rd round pick. So, there is that.

I say this tongue in cheek...but you want to get 1000 comments? Post a 1 time blog about Seth Jones trade, giving up 1st round picks, and watch the fire spread.....

Seriously though.....some hate it, some love it, some are hopeful for the best. Not 1 person in the 1st, 2 group is going to change their opinion, and it will likely take a few years for group 3 to move to either group 1 or 2....it gets exhausting reading the same rhetoric over and over again...I get this time of year is slow, but whats done is done.

I am sure somebody has it, but I would LOVE To know the percentage of 1st round picks, by where they are picked that 1. make the nhl, 2. and the average number of games they play and their production......for all the grandstanding about giving up 1st round picks to acquire somebody is a #13 pick really a lock and a future building block or is it a higher risk than a guy like Jones rebounding in a new system, with a new team, and better players?

Outside of that, I enjoy your blogs.
- SteveRain

Thanks, Steve.

Something I think about, too, is that the game experience of a majority of fans isn't swayed one way or another by stats whether gross stats or advanced stats.

Some could blame the Blackhawks organizational hype machine to pump the tires of whoever (Jones in this case) to make him out to be better than he really is but most fans likely don't care about that either.

I would imagine what matters most to most fans -- which a large proportion are kids -- is the excitement to see some new players come in to complement Kane, Toews, and youngsters to help the team win.

Who knows, the Hawks could be on the right track with Jones leading the way. Or Jones plays better than expected but the team still idles as a lottery team. Or Jones and the team all go south.

I hope Johnson sees time with Kane because he will produce IMO at a higher rate than what Suter did.

Hawks have wrongfully assumed they can throw anyone and everyone with Kane and get away with it......they rolled out Handzus's corpse for how long with him? Brad Richards on fumes......Amnisinov....shaw.....and on it goes....all are/were OK players but elite talent? NO......when they did throw an ELITE player with Kane...what happened? MVP season with Panarin.

Your right I won't change the definition but a 32nd round pick is still a 1st round pick.
- SteveRain

Yeah and Anisimov was the center on that line and did all the heavy lifting playing defense to cover for Panarin and Kane. Handzus served a purpose in the same way as far as playing defense and doing some heavy lifting. For a bit but then injuries and age really limited his effectiveness in that role.

Richard, Versteeg and Kane were a pretty good match in that season. Again, Richards served his purpose that season.

Except the 32 wasn't a 1st round pick until this year and in terms of actual value, its is equal to a 3rd round pick. So, there is that.
- Elbows15

There's what? It was a 1st round pick. The Hawks picked in the 1st round this year....there is nothing else to it.

You don't see me hammering away that the Rangers had a 1% chance of picking 1st this year even though they are a supposed "Lottery team"......

Thanks, Steve.

Something I think about, too, is that the game experience of a majority of fans isn't swayed one way or another by stats whether gross stats or advanced stats.

Some could blame the Blackhawks organizational hype machine to pump the tires of whoever (Jones in this case) to make him out to be better than he really is but most fans likely don't care about that either.

I would imagine what matters most to most fans -- which a large proportion are kids -- is the excitement to see some new players come in to complement Kane, Toews, and youngsters to help the team win.

Who knows, the Hawks could be on the right track with Jones leading the way. Or Jones plays better than expected but the team still idles as a lottery team. Or Jones and the team all go south.
- Theo Fox

the "lottery" team seems to be thrown out way too easily vs what it actually means. The idea is to keep teams from intentionally tanking to be assured of getting the 1st overall pick. Trying to keep competitive balance. A team finishing 9th in the conference and having a 1% shot of "winning" said lottery is almost a sure thing of NOT happening.

I don't disagree with you and be careful about the dreaded "hype machine" as many on here, or used to be on here, don't believe in that.....


I do agree with you.....I just think the Jones trade was overblown by 90% of this board. Nobody here is smarter than somebody currently employed in hockey ops because if that was the case...said person would be employed IMO....I am not worried one bit that Adam Boqvist will haunt this franchise for however long he stays in the NHL....i don't wish the kid any ill will, but he didn't do much for me and I would rather have a 26 yr old proven asset about to enter his prime than hitching my wagon to a kid who's jury is still out....and if not likely NEVER sniffs his ceiling, than bowman did an excellent job selling high.....didn't give up a Lankinen, Dach, DeBrincat, Reichel, Beaudin, Mitchell, and so on.

I hope LBR sees my post because if anyone has access to a long sample size of players drafted in each slot in the 1st round over the last 14 years, it's likely her.....I would love to see how each generic group lines up....f, d, g over the course of that time frame.....I can see the flip side of people arguing team needs, organizational development (good and bad) etc....but it would be fascinating to see that breakdown as some of the variables would be eliminated with the law averages (good draft years cancel out weak ones, etc....and what team over the last 14+ years has truly developed the most 1st roudn picks who have had LT success in the NHL)........this would be a fun project to kill the dead time before training camp starts.

Yeah and Anisimov was the center on that line and did all the heavy lifting playing defense to cover for Panarin and Kane. Handzus served a purpose in the same way as far as playing defense and doing some heavy lifting. For a bit but then injuries and age really limited his effectiveness in that role.

Richard, Versteeg and Kane were a pretty good match in that season. Again, Richards served his purpose that season.
- Elbows15

I get all that and why an offensive minded defensive center is needed to play with Kane because he will take chances.....the risk vs the reward in regards to what he does, hasn't bothered me in long time.....he's not as bad come playoff time as he was as a rookie as I can clearly remember...I think it was game 2 vs Detroit in 2009 wcf where he half assed it back on the odd man rush that was the game winner. He matured.

You asked about people producing with Kane.....and I gave you panarin. Give Kane elite talent and his ceiling rises higher when he's not saddled with the guys who float up and down the lineup....team wins, but his potential is never maximized. Give and take.....and yes, I would take the winning over Kane potting 120+ points a season and Hawks losing.

Kane, Ovie, Kucherov, McDavid, Matthews, Marner, Drysaddle to name a few.

Yes. Matthews and Marner especially need to step it up in the POs, but their regular season numbers are in line.
- Elbows15

Some of those guys never had bridge deals we would have been screwed had Toews and Kane started $10.5 when they went to $6M.

Is there a player that has signed north of say 8.5 long term who has lived up to their deal since the cap era?

Steve Rain

Kane?
- LAHawk

Ovi
Kane agree

Some of those guys never had bridge deals we would have been screwed had Toews and Kane started $10.5 when they went to $6M.
- rpeters01

Excellent point...believe the only 3 that he listed that didnt

Kucherov
Ovechkin
Kane

Rest went from entry level to massive cap hits. I think Kucherovs is one to watch....hips and backs injuries are never good for hockey players.

Some of those guys never had bridge deals we would have been screwed had Toews and Kane started $10.5 when they went to $6M.
- rpeters01

The idiot in Edm screwed the market when he gave Hall, Eberle and RNH matching contracts while they were still collecting #1 picks.

Or if the Hawks had to pay Keith was he was worth during those years.

My impression of the Blackhawks and the current lineup is, Buffalo Sabers. I don’t know why, but that’s the feeling I get.
- Diamondhands

You're grossly overrating the Blackhawks.

There's what? It was a 1st round pick. The Hawks picked in the 1st round this year....there is nothing else to it.

You don't see me hammering away that the Rangers had a 1% chance of picking 1st this year even though they are a supposed "Lottery team"......
- SteveRain

No matter what criteria you use, Bowman out bid himself for the services of a rental player. Then compounded it by rushing to sign him to an extension before he played game 1. Again, by bidding against himself.

We will see. Jones is never going to live up to that contract. Hopefully it isn't too much of sunk value.

Ovechkin and Kane....yes

Others....are trending that way but lets see....especially Kucherov who has already had hip issues.

The likelyhood of any team getting equal to or exceeding value in regards to production vs payment is rare.......

More likely is that the team gets equal to or exceeding product vs what they pay and then the last 2-3 years the player comes out on top.....

The next Ovechkin deal......see what happens. Pulling for him to break Gretzky's record and will never pull against him, but 9.5 at his age......this board would have had guys female doging about that if Hawks did that.
- SteveRain

It's a way to make up for under paying him all these years.

No matter what criteria you use, Bowman out bid himself for the services of a rental player. Then compounded it by rushing to sign him to an extension before he played game 1. Again, by bidding against himself.

We will see. Jones is never going to live up to that contract. Hopefully it isn't too much of sunk value.
- Elbows15

That's not what happened and you know it. Columbus said we're not giving him away and Stan said I'm not giving up anything without a long term deal. It was all done at once. Pretty obvious Stan did not over pay dollar wise quit whining already.

The idiot in Edm screwed the market when he gave Hall, Eberle and RNH matching contracts while they were still collecting #1 picks.

Or if the Hawks had to pay Keith was he was worth during those years.
- Elbows15

Keith without the illegal deal would have meant somebody good possibly himself would not have been on the team.